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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Newcastle United look for their first away league win since Boxing Day when they pay a Friday night visit to a Nottingham Forest side that suddenly appears wobbly.
The Magpies haven’t exactly been awful on their recent travels — three of those last four in the league have finished in draws. Even so, picking up single points against teams lower in the table won’t be enough to stay in the hunt for a top-four finish, and that is the aim still.
Forest may have gained a false sense of security following a run of two defeats in 11 league games. But reality has crept up with a vengeance after they’ve taken only two points from their last five, including a surprising 1-1 draw against title chasers Manchester City and a more frustrating 2-2 tie against relegation strugglers Everton.
Newcastle beat Forest 2-0 on the opening weekend of the season at St. James’ Park on goals from Fabian Schar and Callum Wilson.
For most of Forest’s 11-match run of good form, the analytics showed manager Steve Cooper’s side deserved those results. Their overall xG difference in that stretch was in positive territory, and they created more xG than opponents in seven of those games.
Then, a sudden reversal happened, and there’s one likely reason. An injury crisis at center back began catching up with them.
Joe Worrall and Felipe remain the only healthy and eligible options at the position since Forest had not included Steve Cook in their 25-man roster for the EPL stretch run. Willy Boly and Scott McKenna are expected to recover before season’s end, but aren’t expected to be available Friday.
And given how much defending Cooper has asked his side to do since shifting into a four-back system last fall, recent days have felt akin to a ship slowly taking on water that is suddenly too much. Forest have been outscored 12-4 over their five-game swoon while paying to a -6.0 xG difference.
The Trees have at least been able to depend on goals at home, scoring in all but one of their league games at the City Ground. But even that could become more difficult now.
Scoring leader scorer Brennan Johnson (seven goals) is questionable after picking up a groin injury in Sunday’s 3-1 loss at Tottenham Hotspur. Taiwo Awoniyi – second on the Trees’ goals list – hasn’t played since early January.
The Magpies had been in an attacking funk of their own, which prompted Eddie Howe to make a couple of bold changes in last Sunday’s 2-1 home win over Wolverhampton Wanderers.
Howe inserted Alexander Isak at center forward in place of a struggling Callum Williams, and also left team-leading scorer Miguel Almiron on the bench for the first time all season.
The result was an excellent performance going forward. Isak scored early and nearly set up another goal before halftime, and Almiron came on late to score the winner. Suddenly, it felt as if Newcastle’s run at the top four and a place in next year’s UEFA Champions League had been rejuvenated.
If they aren’t able to make up the four-point gap (with two games in hand) on fourth-place Tottenham, it might be due to regression at the other end of the pitch. After a run of nine clean sheets in 10 matches in all competitions, the Magpies have now conceded goals in seven straight.
Some of that is explained by a tougher run of fixtures, but not all. Wolves were the third consecutive team in the bottom half of the table to score a solitary goal against the Magpies. Unlike Forest, there isn’t an obvious health-related explanation to explain the trend.
Even though Forest look more vulnerable of late, they’ve still taken at least a point in their last nine at home. They’ve drawn their last three at the City Ground despite analytics that suggest they were second-best — and they were downright lucky against City.
Some of their home form owes to schedule, with Manchester United and Arsenal still to visit. But there’s also a draw with Man City and a win over Liverpool already on the books.
Given other recent factors, the draw has value at +290 odds and an implied 25.6% probability. The percentages suggest it, even if the analytics don’t. The Magpies have drawn six of 12 away from St. James’ Park, and Forest have drawn five of 13 at home.
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03-17-23 06:50 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Southampton look to get out of the bottom of the table when they host Tottenham.
They are in the relegation fight and dropped a crucial match on Wednesday to Brentford 2-0. Saints are only two points from safety, so every single match from here on out is crucial if they want to survive. Tottenham beat them 4-1 on opening weekend, so they’ll be out for revenge on Saturday.
Spurs beat Nottingham Forest last Saturday to remain in the final Champions League spot in the table. It’s been a weird season for Tottenham with Antonio Conte likely leaving the club at the end of the season, but they are still in the thick of the top four battle. This is one of those matches where they need all three points if they want to finish inside the top four.
Desperation time has set in for Southampton in the relegation fight. They are now on their third manager of the season and will continue to set up as a direct counterattacking team under Rubén Sellés.
Southampton have run ridiculously cold defensively this season and a lot of it comes down to bad goalkeeping play. The Saints have allowed 43 goals off 36.3 xG and their goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu had a -10.7 post shot xG +/-.
Unless he is the worst goalkeeper in Premier League history, he is bound to improve and regress towards the mean. Selles went back to Southampton’s patented 4-4-2 that they played for years under Ralph Hasenhüttl, which will give Southampton more structure and it helped them get a clean sheets against both Chelsea and Leicester City.
The problems that have existed for Southampton are because of their attack. They do not have a good striking duo that can finish at a high rate.
Southampton are only averaging 0.88 npxG per 90 minutes and have created just 14 big scoring chances on the season. That is a problem going up against one of the best defensive teams in the Premier League.
However, Southampton have been much better at home than they’ve been on the road this season, as they only have a -3.2 xGD at the St. Mary’s Stadium versus a -7.7 xGD away from home.
Tottenham are much different than all of the other big six clubs. They are not a possession-dominant team that is going to press high and try to win the ball off you in your own half of the pitch. They have a very passive defense, but they are absolutely elite at defending their penalty area.
Spurs are best in the Premier League in final third to penalty box entry conversion rate, meaning only 22.4% of the time their opponent enters the final third are they able to turn that into a penalty box touch.
It’s translated to the quality of chances they’ve allowed as well, as Spurs are third in the Premier League in big scoring chances allowed. However, that type of style doesn’t really set up well unless their opponent is a very possession-based type team, which Southampton aren’t.
Tottenham are a really good counterattacking side, but there have been some questionable offensive performances as of late. Despite scoring twice against Chelsea, they only created 0.7 xG. Against AC Milan they only created 0.9 xG total over the two legs, and they just created 0.8 xG against Sheffield United in the FA Cup.
I don’t see Southampton coming out and pressing Tottenham high in this match and their pressing numbers this season indicate they’re not as frenetic as they were with Ralph Hasenhüttl, as they rank ninth in PPDA and 13th in high turnovers.
That means you are going to get a good 4-4-2 defensive structure from Southampton, who will essentially dare Tottenham to break down their low block. That is something Spurs have struggled to do this season.
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03-17-23 10:36 PM |
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