Ok, how about a team that comes home after getting a split on the road.
In this case historical wise, Detroit has a bit under 50% chance to win the game. The home team has a 46.2% winning percentage. So the Ducks are value here getting +130
How about a team going home after losing the first 2 games on the road.
In this spot the home team has a 52.2% in the preliminary round. So the Kings at -145 is a huge overlay. Great value on the Ducks here.
But remember everyone, you gotta cap the game first and use this as back up.. But also remember if you ignore history you will be defeated by it.