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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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The 2017-18 Champions League has reached the Round of 16, and there are some incredible matchups including PSG/Real Madrid, Juventus/Tottenham and Barcelona/Chelsea. For those unfamiliar with this tournament, each matchup consists of a home-and-home series with the best goal differential advancing (based on away goals). Odds have been on the move since opening and we’ve looked into each matchup to pick out where the value lies.
Manchester City vs. Basel
Open: Man City -1400, Basel +925
Current: Man City -1200, Basel +700
Manchester City’s unbeaten run in the Premier League recently ended at 22 matches which may take some pressure off the rest of their season across all competitions. They’re the biggest favorites to advance to the quarterfinals (-1200) after getting a fortunate opponent of Basel in the Round of 16, and they’re the title favorites at +350. It’s been an incredible run for Pep Guardiola’s squad so far but there’s lots of work left. If Man City don’t at least get through to the semifinals, this tournament will be considered a failure.
In the opening leg at Basel, Man City are -270 favorites to win, with the draw listed at +400 and Basel at +742. Public betting has been relatively even so far with a good number of tickets taking a shot on Basel’s big moneyline payout. If you like Man City to advance, you should probably bet them to win the opening leg at -270 instead. If they happen to draw/lose the opening match, their odds to advance will be much lower than -1200. I do recommend checking to make sure your sportsbook will offer odds before the second leg, as you don’t want to be in the position of waiting for lines that will never show up.
Opening Leg on February 13th at Man City: Man City -270, Basel +742, Draw +400
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02-10-18 11:10 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Juventus vs. Tottenham
Open: Juventus -135, Tottenham +115
Current: Juventus -150, Tottenham +125
This is one of the better matchups in the Round of 16, and Juventus are now -150 favorites to advance. When odds first opened I assumed we’d see bets on Tottenham to bring the line down, but it’s actually gone the other way with some early sharp money on Juventus. If you like Tottenham to advance, you’re better off taking them in the first leg at Juventus or waiting until they play at home. Tottenham are +300 to win at Juventus and +250 to Draw at Juventus, so it’s smarter to take one of those options at a higher payout rather than the +125 odds to advance. If Tottenham do indeed lose the opening leg at Juventus, you’ll get far better than +125 odds to advance.
The same can be said if you like Juventus to advance. Instead of taking them at -150, you’re better off betting them at -104 to win the opening leg. If Juventus happen to lose/draw the first match at home, then you’ll get a much better price than -150 to advance.
Opening Leg on February 13th at Juventus: Juventus -104, Tottenham +313, Draw +234
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02-10-18 11:11 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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PSG vs. Real Madrid
Open: PSG -130, Real Madrid +110
Current: PSG -125, Real Madrid +105
PSG and Real Madrid unfortunately meet (or fortunately, for some) in the Round of 16, meaning one of the tournament favorites will already be eliminated before the quarterfinals. This is great news for other contenders like Man City, Bayern Munich and Barcelona whose paths automatically become a bit easier. PSG are small favorites to advance despite being +204 to win the opening match at Real Madrid and public bettors are swarming. PSG have received more than 60% of tickets in the opener, something that certainly worries me. At home, Real Madrid (+119) are attracting less than 30% of wagers but that’s where I’m putting my money. I also like the fact there’s a high total of 3 goals, and you may be able to wait for a better price on Real Madrid with the amount of bettors on PSG so far.
Opening Leg on February 14th at Real Madrid: Real Madrid +119, PSG +204, Draw +278
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02-10-18 11:14 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Barcelona vs. Chelsea
Open: Barcelona -300, Chelsea +240
Current: Barcelona -300, Chelsea +240
Despite a difficult matchup for Barcelona, they have the third-highest odds at to advance at -300. The greatest player ever, Leo Messi, has actually never scored a goal against Chelsea in eight matches (29 total shots). In his career he has more than 500 goals in over 600 appearances, and I’d bet on him scoring at least once against Chelsea over the course of two matches. I haven’t seen that prop bet available yet, but would take it if you can find plus-money.
This is oddly the only matchup with no line movement off the opener, but public bettors have been hammering Barcelona in the opening leg at +119 odds. I’d be a little nervous being on the same side as a very trendy road underdog.
Opening Leg on February 20th at Chelsea: Chelsea +232, Barcelona +119, Draw +243
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02-10-18 11:14 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Roma vs. Shaktar Donetsk
Open: Roma -240, Shaktar +200
Current: Roma -220, Shaktar +180
Bettors have liked the Ukrainian Premier League leaders, moving their odds to advance from +200 to +180. They also opened as the slight +175 ‘favorites’ to win the opening leg at home, and that first match will be crucial for them. They’ve been very difficult to beat at home in European competition in recent years with wins over Napoli and Man City (this season), draws with Bayern Munich, Man United, and Dortmund, and a narrow 4-3 defeat to Real Madrid. Even if you put Roma in that echelon of competition, it’s going to be a brutal first game. I’m taking Shaktar Donetsk +165 to take the opening leg.
Opening Leg on February 21st at Shaktar: Shaktar +165, Roma +172, Draw +227
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02-10-18 11:16 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Who will make it to the Champions League Final?
The Premier League has been very impressive in this year’s tournament and account for five of the 16 remaining teams. There are no matchups between EPL teams in the Round of 16 which means they could get all five through to the quarterfinals.
At -135 odds, there’s a 57.4% chance that the Premier League gets at least one club into the final. The odds of an all-Premier League final are +550, while the odds of no EPL teams reaching the final are at +170. Each of the five Premier League teams have individual odds of +3000 or better to win the title.
It’s incredibly difficult for a longshot to win the Champions League which I personally think makes the tournament better. Fans want to see the best teams progress as far as possible, and there’s already a bit of luck and randomness when teams get selected into groups and matchups. To prove that, there are only four remaining clubs with considerably better odds now than before the tournament: Manchester City, PSG, Liverpool and Roma.
Manchester City were a nice darkhorse pick before the tournament at +1400 and are now the favorites at +350. PSG were available at +1200 over the summer prior to acquiring Neymar, and bettors were in a great position as they rolled through the group stage. But then the Round of 16 matchups were announced and PSG found themselves having to face Real Madrid, which alone moved their title odds from +350 to +525.
For the other 12 teams, odds either got worse or stayed just about the same. The most notable were the two big Spanish clubs of Barcelona and Real Madrid. Barcelona were +400 before the tourney but are now +590, and Real Madrid were +450 but now +800. While those may not look like massive odds changes, they amount to about a 4-7% probability drop for each.
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02-10-18 11:18 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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The Champions League returns this week and there are five English teams that remain in the competition. Tottenham arguably had the most impressive group stage as they overcame both Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund to finish top, but the struggles of each team since have somewhat tainted that achievement. They have been drawn to face Juventus in the round of 16 and will travel to Italy for the first leg on Tuesday. It is a tough draw as they are coming up against the team that finished runners-up in the competition last season, but they have already beaten the holders and that should give them confidence that they can progress through this tie.
Juventus are currently in the midst of a title race for the first time in a number of years in Serie A as they trail Napoli who currently top the division. It will be interesting what effect this has on their Champions League campaign, as they won’t be able to fully focus on the European competition. However, the fact that the league is competitive could be a benefit to their attempts to win in Europe, as the players will remain in a must-win frame of mind. They have more experience than Tottenham in Europe and that could give them the advantage in this tie.
The progression at Tottenham since Mauricio Pochettino took over as manager has been huge and they go into this tie against one of the biggest clubs in Europe with a real chance of progression. However, it won’t be easy for them and they will have to be at their best if they are to make it through to the next round. They have good momentum after impressive wins against Manchester United and Arsenal, as well as a credible away draw against Liverpool. Spurs are usually very good in the big matches and they will be hoping that translates to the Champions League.
TEAM NEWS
Juan Cuadrado, Benedikt Howedes and Blaise Matuidi are all not going to be fit to feature for the home side. Meanwhile, Andrea Barzagli and Paulo Dybala are huge doubts, which will be a boost to Tottenham’s chances on Tuesday.
Pochettino has a fully-fit squad to choose from and he is likely to rotate from the side that beat Arsenal. Danny Rose, Serge Aurier and Victor Wanyama are all players that could come into the starting eleven. Toby Alderweireld is also an option, but recent reports suggest he might not be risked for this match.
INTERESTING STATS
Juventus have won their last seven matches in all competitions without conceding a goal.
Harry Kane has scored six times in this season’s Champions League with a goal every 70 minutes.
VERDICT
This is going to be one of the most interesting ties of the round of 16 as both teams have the potential to go deep in the competition and return to Champions League action in great form. Juventus have the experience of winning at this stage of the competition and they will look to keep a clean sheet at home. That will be their primary aim on Tuesday and it will be a tough ask considering the attacking talent that Tottenham have. A narrow home victory is the most likely result, but the visitors have every chance of nicking an away goal.
JUVENTUS 2-1 TOTTENHAM
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02-13-18 12:50 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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There can only be one winner, right? City are playing devastating football and, on paper, this tie goes their way. It may well do, but the first leg will be no walk in St. Jakob-Park for the visitors. Basel have already beaten Manchester United at home this season, and their fans will guarantee a high-voltage atmosphere. Expect this to be a lot tougher for Josep Guardiola's men than it might appear.
Raphaël Wicky, Basel coach
Manchester City basically have no weaknesses. They can change their game, they're flexible and can react to what their opponents do. They have quality, and their coach has shown his quality with Barcelona and Bayern too. They're an unbelievably strong team. When we have the ball, we have to have the courage to use it. Everything has to go perfectly for us in every single respect if we are to create a big surprise.
Josep Guardiola, Man. City manager
In the Champions League Basel play with a back five and they put in some great performances during the group stage. They're strong and well-organised at the back, and good on the counterattack. I've told my players it will be very, very difficult, particularly here. But we're confident. Our goal is to do better than we did last season, which means going through to the quarter-finals.
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02-13-18 12:56 AM |
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