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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Fixtures between Paris Saint Germain and Olympique Marseille are always a date that both sets of fans pencil into their calendars at the start of the season. Supporters have a real treat over the next week, then, as the two come to blows twice in the space of three days, with the Coupe de France quarterfinals to follow this weekend’s match at Parc des Princes, PSG’s home stadium.
The matchup referred to in France as Le Classique certainly has the potential to live up to its billing this time around, following a series of one-sided clashes since the huge cash injection into PSG. Indeed, Olympique Marseille has failed to win any of the last 15 meetings between the sides in all competitions, though this current OM side arguably has a better chance of ending that streak than those before it.
After a slow start, Rudi Garcia has had a real impact at the Ligue 1 outfit, silencing the critics who labelled him too pragmatic as his time with Roma wore on. This Marseille team is far from it, and the manager has built an exciting side capable of unsettling even the strongest of defenses.
For all of PSG’s immense attacking talent, their trip to the Bernabeu to face Real Madrid recently highlighted that they are far from infallible defensively, and when up against decent opposition they do struggle to keep a clean sheet. Marseille breached their backline twice to earn a point in the reverse fixture back in October, while PSG also conceded at least once in league meetings to the likes of Bordeaux, Nantes, Monaco and Lyon this season, all of whom occupy places in the top seven.
Factor in Marseille’s assets of their own in offensive positions, along with the inevitable distraction of PSG’s looming Champions League second leg against Real Madrid, and Marseille seems primed to put up a fight. Florian Thauvin — who endured an ill-fated spell in the Premier League with Newcastle — has unquestionably been the star, with superb tallies of 15 goals and 10 assists already in Ligue 1, while Dimitri Payet, Morgan Sanson and Valere Germain comprise a very capable front four.
The industry best price on “both teams to score” is understandably modest at 1.66 (-152 American odds) as a result. Marseille has found the net in five of the last six meetings between these sides after all, so to find value it’s worth considering that both of these sides have been fast starters of late.
Indeed, both scored in the first half of the last meeting between the sides and, starting with that meeting back in October, PSG has netted before the break in 15 of their last 17 league outings, while Marseille has done so in 13 of their last 17. With odds available at 3.85 (+285) on both teams to score in the first half, that’s an angle I would be tempted to exploit.
The other would be the handicap lines, given the odds with all bookmakers are stacked comprehensively in the hosts’ favor. There is good reason for that, of course. The runaway Ligue 1 leaders haven’t dropped a single point at home, but such a huge price on a Marseille win always points to the fact that there may be value to be had on the winning margin.
Garcia’s side are no mugs, and given the likelihood that they will find a way past this PSG defense, this is unlikely to be a comfortable victory for PSG. Both sides come into the game close to full health, so Marseille will certainly be confident of causing problems. So, even if this game does end in a home win as expected, the margin of victory may well be narrow.
With that in mind, the “Marseille +1.5” handicap is a tempting price as high as 2.28 (+128), which would come in as a winner even if the away side lost by a single goal.
While Le Classique has lived up to its name by way of goal-scoring action between the sides in recent years — with 10 goals in the last two matchups, for instance — this one could yet be a classic by way of tension and drama, with the gulf in class between the two perhaps closer than it has been for some time.
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02-25-18 12:40 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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David De Gea, Manchester United’s star goalkeeper, is the most important player in any match he takes the field.
That will certainly be true Sunday when United hosts Chelsea at Old Trafford. On the surface, the two historic teams seem largely similar. United is second in the Premier League table with 56 points, and Chelsea sits fourth with 53.
They both seem to be defense-first squads that sacrifice adventurous attacking in order to make themselves impenetrable. They’re first and third in the league in goals conceded with 19 and 23, respectively, while only fourth and sixth in attack with 51 and 49 goals scored.
But a slightly deeper look shows two vastly different teams and a potential edge for those betting Sunday’s match: Chelsea (+250) at Manchester United (+129).
Under the Hood
Chelsea’s defensive prowess is the kind that’s sustainable. They concede 9.8 shots against per 90 minutes, the fourth-best total in the league, but only 2.6 shots against on target, the second-best total.
Plus, the kinds of shots they give up aren’t particularly dangerous. They’ve only given up 19 big chances (a moniker data collector Opta reserves for chances like one-on-ones that are excellent opportunities to score), the fewest in the league. The combination of allowing relatively few shots and even fewer good shots means that Chelsea’s 23.63 expected goals allowed are right in line with their actual goals allowed. Their defensive record is a fair reflection of their underlying performance.
Manchester United is the opposite of that. Their shots conceded per 90 is 11.8, only seventh-best in the league, and their shots on target against per 90 is 4.1, tied for seventh. They’ve conceded a whopping 37 big chances, only the 11th fewest in the league. Man U may have conceded only 19 goals, but their expected goals (xG) against tally is much higher at 31.74, only the fifth-best mark in the EPL.
United has been playing like a mediocre defensive team, but De Gea has bailed them out over and over and over again. The Spanish keeper has 86 saves, tied for the second most in the Premier League. He’s the major reason why United’s defense appears to be so good on the surface.
That’s a problem: Even the best goalkeepers are streaky, and De Gea’s level of performance so far this season is extreme. Man U is 12.75 goals better than they should be on defense.
Last year, over the course of a full season with De Gea in between the sticks, United was only 2.62 better than their xG suggested. The year before that, they were 4.66, and the year before that 2.84. De Gea could have the arms of Mister Fantastic and he wouldn’t be able to sustain his current pace.
Form Guide
Neither United nor Chelsea comes into this match in great form. Although Chelsea had an impressive defensive performance midweek against Barcelona in the Champions League, they previously lost two of their last three matches, with an ugly 4-1 loss away to Watford and even uglier 3-0 home defeat to Bournemouth.
United didn’t impress midweek, grinding out a 0-0 draw on the road against Sevilla in the Champions League. The Red Devils have also lost two of their last three league matches, including a 1-0 defeat at Newcastle and a 2-0 away loss to Tottenham Hotspur, where they were largely outclassed by the North London side.
Chelsea’s recent results may be more disappointing, but their problems are more mundane. They’re a reliably strong defensive side, even if those two bad losses didn’t show it (and Tiemoue Bakayoko received a red card in the first half against Watford, so they were down a man for an hour). Despite their recent form, they’re likely to produce a strong defensive performance and limit the danger against Jose Mourinho’s side.
United’s problems run deeper. Their defense simply isn’t good enough. Chelsea will likely have at least a few chances to take advantage of that. The only question is, will De Gea continue to defy the odds for United, or will gravity finally catch up to the super keeper?
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02-25-18 01:40 AM |
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