let's keep rolling folks !
GL

let's keep an eye on Mainz/Wolsfburg DRAW
GL

Wolfsburg are the league’s ‘draw specialists’ and their BL-high of 12 has so far hindered their pre-season plans for European football qualification, and instead landed them in a relegation fight. Another draw here, or can they go one further and get all three points?

Stat attack: The reverse fixture was a 1-1 draw between these teams. Three of the last four BL matches between Wolfsburg and Mainz saw a 1-1 draw, with one a goalless draw.

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Horsens +134

glta

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Deportivo La Coruna DRAW +220

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FSV Mainz 05 DRAW +233

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Maritzburg United DRAW +190

Line movement toward Mainz (+118), Montpellier (+130) and Espanyol (+196) in action across Europe today.

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Horsens +134 ................LOSS

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Maritzburg United DRAW +190......LOSS (goal in the 94th min !! )

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Deportivo La Coruna DRAW +220......WIN

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FSV Mainz 05 DRAW +233........WIN

Nice work Gary! Hopefully I will have a little time to do MLS this year as it starts next week I believe.

once again DRAW wins, glad to help out with these, hopefully others cashed as well
GL

A close look at the Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid odds
The odds suggest an away win for Atletico Madrid but imply a less than 50% chance of this result occurring. Sevilla are favourites on the +0.5 handicap at 1.699* so it is expected to be a close game.
Second meets fifth in a big matchup in La Liga. Sevilla are chasing a European qualification place whilst Atletico Madrid are aiming to maintain the pressure on Barcelona at the top of the La Liga table.

Sevilla started the season strongly but have eased off in the last ten games. The Sevillanos have suffered from poor defensive displays at times, conceding over 2.5 goals six times this season.

Atletico have maintained their title run and are still undefeated away from home. Their defence has been superb this season with goalkeeper Jan Oblak beaten just nine times so far in the league.

As good as they have been in defence Atleti do not often score high numbers of goals. They have scored three or more goals only three times this season. For comparison title rivals Barcelona have scored this number of goals ten times this season already.

The game could open up if Sevilla score the first goal but the clinical finishing of Costa and Griezmann alongside Oblak’s brilliance makes this unlikely. Should Atleti score first expect them to maintain possession and attempt to see out a low scoring game.

Sevilla vs. Atletico Madrid: Where is the value?
The game is a tough one to call with the betting market undecided on a clear winner.

Sevilla have struggled in defence at times this season. Their opponents have conceded just a single goal in their last seven La Liga games. Conceding even one is likely to put a win out of Sevilla’s reach short of an unexpected defensive collapse from Atleti.

It is not Atletico’s style to open up and overcommit in attack so a low scoring game could be in store. Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.709* and offers value given the likelihood of a narrow Atleti win or low scoring draw.

Atletico Madrid are available at 1.680* on the -0.0 handicap. Given their defensive strength and Sevilla’s relative weakness at the back it would be surprising to see a home win. Covering both the draw and an Atletico Madrid win could be a smart move as a result.

The draws in Germany, France and Spain went 3-0 today for +6.82 units. Not a bad Friday.

The Premier League is back in action after a brief hiatus for FA Cup matches, and we’ve got a huge matchup on Sunday between Chelsea and Manchester United (9:05 a.m. ET). Manchester City/Arsenal will play their regularly scheduled Premier League match later in the week on Thursday as these teams will actually meet in the EFL Cup Final on Sunday morning (11:30 a.m. ET).

With eight matches on the slate for the weekend, we’ve picked out three value plays, including Chelsea/Manchester United.

Here’s a look at the most recent results, season trends, biggest payouts and title odds along with value plays and market analysis for Week 28.
Week 27 Results:
Home 8 of 10 (+10.85 units)
Away 1 of 10 (-8.28 units)
Draw 1 of 10 (-6.82 units)

Another miserable week for road teams, winning just one of the 10 matches for -8.28 units. The lone victory was Liverpool (-139) at Southampton.

Season Results:
Home 123 of 270 (+12.22 units)
Away 73 of 270 (-55.84 units)
Draw 74 of 270 (+24.34 units)

Home teams are on a great run the last few weeks and are now profitable (+12.22 units) on the season. Draws had a rough Week 27, but are still a very healthy +24.34 units on the season.

Season’s Biggest Payouts:
Burnley (+1125) at Chelsea in Week 1
Swansea (+1078) vs. Liverpool in Week 24
Bournemouth (+911) at Chelsea in Week 25
Huddersfield (+875) vs. Man Utd in Week 9
Crystal Palace (+695) vs. Chelsea in Week 8

Five of the top 9 Premier League payouts have been outright wins against Chelsea: Burnley +1125, Bournemouth +911, Crystal Palace +695, West Ham +655, Watford +595.

Fading Chelsea on the moneyline this year has gone 6-21 for +20.5 units earned.

Title Odds via 5Dimes:
Manchester City -50000 (72 points)
Manchester United +17500 (56 points)
Liverpool +25000 (54 points)
Tottenham +25000 (52 points)
Chelsea +50000 (53 points)

Manchester United were upset by Newcastle last matchweek which essentially puts the title race to bed. Bettors would need to lay $500 to make $1 on Man City winning the EPL.

Premier League Relegation Odds via 5Dimes

West Brom -275
Stoke -120
Huddersfield -110
Swansea +225
Brighton +280
Crystal Palace +325
Newcastle +400
Southampton +425

Another loss for West Brom keeps them in the cellar of the EPL and destined to be relegated at -275 odds. However, two other clubs will join them and nearly half the league is still fighting to stay in the top division. Since so many clubs are in a battle to stay in the Premier League, every match is critical for survival.

Swansea at Brighton (Saturday 10 a.m. ET)
Swansea have been heartbreakers for me by continuing to win matches and crawling out of the relegation zone. On Saturday the Swans travel to Brighton as sizable underdogs with a very low game total of 2 goals (u-113). Despite the public willing to take Swansea (30% of moneyline bets), we’ve seen their odds get worse from +295 to +340. Nearly 60% of public bettors have taken Brighton to get the victory at home and the odds have moved in that direction, from +120 to +107.

Lopsided public action on both sides is exactly what I was hoping to see for this match since I was leaning draw, and fading the public only helps my decision. Historically, draws with low totals of 2 goals have been successful every season that we’ve tracked data, including this year (9-11 record, +8.15 units). When goals aren’t expected, the likelihood of a draw increases, and I don’t see this game ending any higher than 1-1. Both teams need points, and I can’t see Swansea getting another victory. The draw is available at +222 odds and that’s where I’m putting my money.

Southampton at Burnley (Saturday 10 a.m. ET)
My rationale for taking the Southampton/Burnley Draw at +210 is the same as Swansea/Brighton– a very low total of 2 goals and a short draw line of +210. Southampton, much like Swansea and Brighton, desperately need to rack up points through the end of the season in order to stay in the EPL. Burnley, on the other hand, have been quite surprising this year and find themselves on 36 points, in seventh position in the league ahead of squads like Leicester City and Everton.

On paper this seems like a win for Burnley, but the odds and line movement suggest otherwise. Southampton have moved from +200 to +172 since opening despite getting just 20% of betting tickets at Burnley. It’s also critical to look at how oddsmakers view Southampton– despite currently stuck in the relegation zone, seven other clubs have shorter odds to be relegated. The market believes that Southampton finds a way out of relegation, and bettors agree it starts this weekend. While I can’t hop on board that Southampton will get the victory on Saturday, they have enough talent to grab a point on the road, so the draw at +210 is where I’m going.

Chelsea at Manchester United (Sunday 9:05 a.m. ET)
Public bettors and line movement have both been heavily toward Chelsea since opening, moving their odds from +307 to +245. A few factors can explain the love for Chelsea:

1) They just played a great 1-1 draw against Barcelona in Champions League action.
2) Man United just played a disappointing 0-0 draw at Sevilla in Champions League action.
3) +250 to +300 is a great price for Chelsea, who are arguably playing better than United over the last couple weeks.

This match will take the most action of the weekend and the majority of public bettors will want to take a side: either Chelsea at +245 odds, or Man United at +134 odds. At the time of publication, Chelsea were receiving 50% of tickets while Man United have attracted 38%. That means only 12% of tickets are taking the draw at +230 odds but that’s where I see this match finishing. Despite both clubs playing the fewest number of draws this season (five apiece), I can’t see this match ending in anything but a draw. You also get to fade the public by taking the draw, and neither team would complain about grabbing a point in this one.

Manchester City at Arsenal (Thursday 2:45 pm ET)
While I don’t have any value play on this match, I couldn’t ignore it completely. Manchester City are small -111 favorites to win at The Emirates, with Arsenal at +278 and the draw at +317. Early betting percentages have been evenly spread out with 55% on City, 23% on Arsenal, and 22% on Draw. This match will be very interesting since it’ll be the second time in four days that the teams meet– they’ll play in the EFL Cup Final on Sunday morning, a match that has greater significance than their Premier League clash. It’s very possible that Man City will decide to play an inferior lineup by the time Thursday rolls around and we could see these odds shift considerably. At +278 odds, I would be leaning on the home side Arsenal to get the outright victory.

Most Lopsided Moneyline Tickets Around the Market
75% on Leicester City (-138)
67% on Bournemouth (+111)
63% on Brighton (+107)

Biggest Line Moves Since Opening
Southampton (+200 to +172) at Burnley
Brighton (+120 to +105) vs. Swansea
Chelsea (+307 to +254) at Manchester United

Leicester City getting some good love this morning
GL

some nice cash flow here

SOC [200106] BOURNEMOUTH +108

YTD
39-23-34 +28.61