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Bytore
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 16037
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49ers are 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
That is just one team. Run that against 32, and it is a useless stat.
I draw the line at that point.
I believe several stats can be successful, but they must work for all teams, to be valid for me.
I would put forth, that many systems do work. Many in this forum!
The problem is, they get corrupted by too many stats.
They need supporting stats, to succeed. And the fewer factors, the better.
I just finished capping 708 games, and am hitting over 63% ATS across all systems over 6 years.
Will the machine win this year???
Since it is an experiment, we do not and cannot know.
I have one last theory. The machine may be a moving phenom. That is, the stats may slowly change in one direction over the course of a few years.
So, that would mean, that back testing may need a limit in years. I would suspect that each system, would need different time frames.
This is a tough build. I think I have the time. Like nearly everyday all winter!!!
LOL!
I need snow music...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yG0oBPtyNb0
P.S. The machine will stay in the HOF. This is to save me from lawsuits..
It will be fun my Statfox friends. : )
About another 800 games to go...
I want a shiny new toaster if I hit 25 units on the season!!!
"Today's Tom Sawyer, he gets high on you
And the space he invades, he gets by on you..."
RUSH
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09-26-13 07:52 AM |
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Bytore
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Jan 2003
Posts: 16037
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Duly noted in my file Point. : )
I was thinking keeping things at 6 years, or if a system is 10 years, always remove a year in a new season.
So next year, I would delete 2006.
Again, this takes time to verify. And to hit the right combination of years.
All in all, a fine idea, this being a contrarian!
I will show you more results in a few days. Time to rest!
I need to buy a working version of Kingsoft office software, to do macros. it is actually faster than Microsoft Excel. Sweet!
I often find that even hitting 65%, there are always a couple of years that fail, and others that just rock.
It must be, that it works like a wave-form, in any market.
To tell you how different it is the machine, it uses no power ratings, or anything else like that. And it singles out no team. They must all behave in a similar fashion based on the parameters.
"Today's Tom Sawyer, he gets high on you
And the space he invades, he gets by on you..."
RUSH
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09-26-13 08:24 AM |
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