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Heat at Pacers, Game 6
June 1, 2013
For the first time in these playoffs, Indiana (59-39 straight up, 53-45 against the spread) will face elimination when it hosts Miami on Saturday night in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference finals.
Most betting shops have installed Miami (77-19 SU, 54-42 ATS) as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 182. Gamblers can take the Pacers to win outright for a +120 return (risk $100 to win $120).
For first-half wagers, the Heat is favored by one with a total of 90.5.
For the first 24 minutes of Thursday’s crucial Game 5, Indiana was in control. The Pacers were continuing to beat Miami on the boards and get scoring production from their ‘bigs,’ who have had their way in the lane for most of the series.
In a guest appearance on sports radio in Louisville earlier Thursday, I explained that Miami’s only hope was for LeBron James to absolutely dominate. I further noted that the Pacers were the better team, but the Heat had the best player.
With Miami trailing by six in the opening minute of the third quarter, James took over and showed why he’s the best player in the world today. Following a pair of free throws from Dwyane Wade, James scored on a layup. After a bucket by Udonis Haslem, James made a sweet dish to Haslem in transition for an easy dunk.
And just like that, the Heat were in the lead. Haslem would stay hot for the rest of the third quarter, while James added a dunk and a pair of jumpers. Miami was up 70-57 going into the final stanza.
When Indiana momentarily sliced the deficit to eight at 72-64 with 9:46 remaining, Miami responded with a 9-2 run that included a trey from Ray Allen. The Heat wouldn’t let the Pacers get closer than 11 the rest of the way in a 90-79 win as a 7.5-point home favorite.
The 169 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 185-point total. The ‘over’ had previously hit in every game of the series and nine of the 10 previous head-to-head meetings between these clubs.
James finished with 30 points, eight rebounds, six assists, two steals and one blocked shot. He was efficient as usual, making 13-of-26 shots from the field. Haslem erupted for 16 points on 8-of-9 shooting from the floor. Mario Chalmers added 12 points and six assists, while Wade tallied 10 points, six boards and four dimes.
Paul George had another stellar performance for the Pacers, producing 27 points, 11 rebounds and five assists while draining 11-of-19 attempts from the field. Roy Hibbert had 22 points, six rebounds and a pair of blocked shots, while David West finished with 17 points and eight boards.
These teams have met at Indiana four times this year. The Pacers are 3-1 both SU and ATS in those four encounters, with last Sunday’s 114-96 loss in Game 3 serving as the lone defeat.
Chris Bosh’s disappearing act in the series continued in Thursday’s Game 5. Although Bosh did collect a series-high five rebounds, he scored only seven points. He is averaging just 3.6 rebounds per game in the East finals.
The ‘over’ is 49-44-3 overall for the Heat, 25-21-1 in its road assignments. Meanwhile, the Pacers have watched their totals produce an overall wash (48-48-2). However, they have seen the ‘over’ go 5-1 in their last six games. The ‘over’ is 26-22-1 in Indiana’s home games this season.
Bettors should keep an eye on the news over the next 24 hours because there is a possibility that Miami Chris ‘Birdman’ Andersen could be facing a suspension. He went after Tyler HanXXXough in Game 5, shoving him from the blind side when he mistakenly thought ‘Psycho T’ had given him a bump moments earlier.
The updated series price at Sportsbook.ag is Miami -950, Indiana +675 (risk $100 to win $675). The website's updated future odds have the Heat as the -240 'chalk,' while the Spurs and Pacers have +180 and 20/1 odds, respectively.
Sportsbook also has proposition bets galore for Saturday's Game 6 in Indianapolis. For instance, gamblers can wager on the player to score the first points of the game. James is the +350 'chalk,' with the next-shortest odds belonging to Hibbert (6/1), George (6/1), West (7/1) and Wade (7/1).
Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. Eastern on TNT.
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Heat F Anderson suspended for Game 6
May 31, 2013
NEW YORK (AP) - Chris Andersen was suspended Friday by the NBA for his altercation with Tyler HanXXXough, leaving the Miami Heat without one of their best big men as they try to finish off the Indiana Pacers in Game 6.
The league also upgraded Andersen's foul to a Flagrant 2, which would have meant an automatic ejection had it been called at the time.
Andersen knocked HanXXXough to the floor from behind with 9:02 left in the second quarter Thursday, then shoved him backward after HanXXXough got up. Andersen still wouldn't back away when a referee stepped in, and the league said in a statement that he ``resisted efforts to bring the altercation to an end.''
Andersen has made all 15 shots from the field in the series, and the Heat could miss the Birdman's size Saturday against the bigger Indiana front line.
Though referees reviewed the play and upgraded it from a common foul to a flagrant, they chose not to make it a Flagrant 2 and throw Andersen out of the game.
But NBA Commissioner David Stern, speaking Friday in taped interview with NBC Sports Radio, said he thought Andersen should have been ejected.
``I don't know what he was doing,'' Stern said, according to a transcript provided by the network. ``A serious review of his activities is called for.''
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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06-02-13 12:20 AM |
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Preview: Heat (66-16) at Pacers (49-32)
Date: June 01, 2013 8:30 PM EDT
For the first time in these playoffs, Indiana (59-39 straight up, 53-45 against the spread) will face elimination when it hosts Miami on Saturday night in Game 6 of the Eastern Conference finals.
Most betting shops have installed Miami (77-19 SU, 54-42 ATS) as a 2.5-point road favorite with a total of 182. Gamblers can take the Pacers to win outright for a +120 return (risk $100 to win $120).
For first-half wagers, the Heat is favored by one with a total of 90.5.
For the first 24 minutes of Thursday’s crucial Game 5, Indiana was in control. The Pacers were continuing to beat Miami on the boards and get scoring production from their ‘bigs,’ who have had their way in the lane for most of the series.
In a guest appearance on sports radio in Louisville earlier Thursday, I explained that Miami’s only hope was for LeBron James to absolutely dominate. I further noted that the Pacers were the better team, but the Heat had the best player.
With Miami trailing by six in the opening minute of the third quarter, James took over and showed why he’s the best player in the world today. Following a pair of free throws from Dwyane Wade, James scored on a layup. After a bucket by Udonis Haslem, James made a sweet dish to Haslem in transition for an easy dunk.
And just like that, the Heat were in the lead. Haslem would stay hot for the rest of the third quarter, while James added a dunk and a pair of jumpers. Miami was up 70-57 going into the final stanza.
When Indiana momentarily sliced the deficit to eight at 72-64 with 9:46 remaining, Miami responded with a 9-2 run that included a trey from Ray Allen. The Heat wouldn’t let the Pacers get closer than 11 the rest of the way in a 90-79 win as a 7.5-point home favorite.
The 169 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 185-point total. The ‘over’ had previously hit in every game of the series and nine of the 10 previous head-to-head meetings between these clubs.
James finished with 30 points, eight rebounds, six assists, two steals and one blocked shot. He was efficient as usual, making 13-of-26 shots from the field. Haslem erupted for 16 points on 8-of-9 shooting from the floor. Mario Chalmers added 12 points and six assists, while Wade tallied 10 points, six boards and four dimes.
Paul George had another stellar performance for the Pacers, producing 27 points, 11 rebounds and five assists while draining 11-of-19 attempts from the field. Roy Hibbert had 22 points, six rebounds and a pair of blocked shots, while David West finished with 17 points and eight boards.
These teams have met at Indiana four times this year. The Pacers are 3-1 both SU and ATS in those four encounters, with last Sunday’s 114-96 loss in Game 3 serving as the lone defeat.
Chris Bosh’s disappearing act in the series continued in Thursday’s Game 5. Although Bosh did collect a series-high five rebounds, he scored only seven points. He is averaging just 3.6 rebounds per game in the East finals.
The ‘over’ is 49-44-3 overall for the Heat, 25-21-1 in its road assignments. Meanwhile, the Pacers have watched their totals produce an overall wash (48-48-2). However, they have seen the ‘over’ go 5-1 in their last six games. The ‘over’ is 26-22-1 in Indiana’s home games this season.
Bettors should keep an eye on the news over the next 24 hours because there is a possibility that Miami Chris ‘Birdman’ Andersen could be facing a suspension. He went after Tyler HanXXXough in Game 5, shoving him from the blind side when he mistakenly thought ‘Psycho T’ had given him a bump moments earlier.
The updated series price at Sportsbook.ag is Miami -950, Indiana +675 (risk $100 to win $675). The website's updated future odds have the Heat as the -240 'chalk,' while the Spurs and Pacers have +180 and 20/1 odds, respectively.
Sportsbook also has proposition bets galore for Saturday's Game 6 in Indianapolis. For instance, gamblers can wager on the player to score the first points of the game. James is the +350 'chalk,' with the next-shortest odds belonging to Hibbert (6/1), George (6/1), West (7/1) and Wade (7/1).
Tip-off is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. Eastern on TNT.
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SERIES AT A GLANCE
GAME 1
Pacers at Heat
Wed, May 22 Final 102 to 103
Recaps
GAME 2
Pacers at Heat
Fri, May 24 Final 97 to 93
Recaps
GAME 3
Heat at Pacers
Sun, May 26 Final 114 to 96
Recaps
GAME 4
Heat at Pacers
Tue, May 28 Final 92 to 99
Recaps
GAME 5
Pacers at Heat
Thu, May 30 Final 79 to 90
Recaps
GAME 6
Heat at Pacers
Sat, Jun 1 - 8:30PM EDT
GAME 7
Pacers at Heat
Mon, Jun 3 - 8:30PM EDT
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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06-02-13 12:20 AM |
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CNOTES
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NBA
Dunkel
Indiana at Miami
The Heat look to bounce back from their 91-77 loss in Game 6 and build on their 10-1 ATS record in their last 11 games following a SU defeat. Miami is the pick (-7) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-7). Here are all of today's picks.
MONDAY, JUNE 3
Game 523-524: Indiana at Miami (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 119.526; Miami 129.393
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 10; 177
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 7; 181 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-7); Under
NBA
Long Sheet
Monday, June 3
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INDIANA (60 - 39) at MIAMI (77 - 20) - 6/3/2013, 8:35 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA is 12-10 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 13-9 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
13 of 22 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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NBA
Short Sheet
Monday, June 3
Conference Finals, Game Seven (Series Tied, 3-3)
Indiana at Miami, 8:35 ET TNT
Indiana: 1-10 ATS away off BB Unders
Miami: 20-9 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games
NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up
Monday, June 3
Miami (other than James) was 16-51 in Game 6; Haslem was scoreless after going 8-9 from floor in Game 5. Huge question is this: who will be the Heat player to give Lebron some scoring support? Andersen comes back from suspension for Miami, which is 9-0 vs spread in game after its last nine losses, but Andersen isn't a scorer. Over is 7-3 in this round of playoffs, but last two games in this series stayed under. Stephenson is 14-31 from floor in three Indiana wins, 6-27 in its losses, but most of that damage was done in one game. Question: if Indiana is up a point in last 0:10 and Miami has ball, will Hibbert be on the floor? Ya think?
NBA
Monday, June 3
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Trend Report
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8:30 PM
INDIANA vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana's last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Indiana is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home
Miami is 19-4 SU in its last 23 games
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NBA
Monday, June 3
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Pacers at Heat: What bettors need to know
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Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat (-7, 181)
Best-of-seven series tied 3-3.
The Indiana Pacers are one win away from making a surprise trip to the NBA Finals. The Miami Heat, who host the Pacers in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals on Monday, are one loss away from an offseason filled with tough questions. LeBron James has been his usual dominant self at times in the series but has gotten little help from his supporting cast. Indiana has controlled the inside in its three wins and will attempt to do so again.
Miami won Game 5 by evening thing up on the interior but fell off the pace again in Game 6, when the Pacers opened up a 53-33 advantage on the glass and a 44-22 edge in points in the paint. Some of that falls on Chris Bosh, who is 5-for-21 with 12 rebounds in the last three games combined and has yet to grab more than five boards in a game during the series. “I believe in my teammates,” James said. “They’re struggling right now, but we’ve got another chance on Monday.” Indiana is the only team to hold the Heat below 80 points this season and it has done it twice, including limiting Miami to a season-low 36.1 percent shooting in Saturday’s 91-77 triumph.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, TNT
ABOUT THE PACERS: Indiana got superb play from Paul George and Roy Hibbert once again in Game 6. George led the way with 28 points and nailed a back-breaking 3-pointer in the fourth quarter when the Heat were making their final run. Hibbert followed that up by drawing an offensive foul on James as the Pacers turned the momentum. The Indiana big man has increased his visibility around the league with his play in the series and responded harshly when asked after the game why he had finished so low in the Defensive Player of the year voting. “Y’all (expletive) don’t watch us play throughout the year to tell you the truth,” he said. “So that’s fine. I’m going to be real with you and I don’t care if I get fined.” Hibbert also used a gay slur in answer to a question earlier in his postgame press conference and issued an apology on Sunday. That mini-controversy briefly overshadowed the great performance on the court from the Pacers, who are trying to advance to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2000.
ABOUT THE HEAT: Miami has tried to spread the Indiana defense out by bringing Bosh out to the perimeter and spreading the floor around James with 3-pointer shooters, which has left the team vulnerable on the glass. Dwyane Wade’s slashing drives to the basket have been unsuccessful as well, and the star guard refused to blame a nagging knee injury for his lack of explosiveness after Game 6. In fact, Wade is lobbying for a bigger role in the offense. “We’ve got to do a good job of making sure me and (Bosh) have our opportunities to succeed throughout the game,” Wade told reporters. “That’s something we’re going to have to look at as a team.” Wade was productive in the first three games of the series but has shot 32 percent over the last three.
TRENDS:
* Heat are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a loss.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Miami.
* Over is 5-1-1 in Heat’s last seven games following an ATS loss.
BUZZER BEATERS
1. James has averaged 34.3 points in three career Game 7s.
2. The Pacers will be playing their first conference finals Game 7 since 1998 while the Heat will be enduring a Game 7 for the second straight season after knocking off the Boston Celtics en route to the championship in 2012.
3. Miami will have F Chris Andersen, who served a one-game suspension in Game 6, available for the finale. He is 15-for-15 from the floor in the series.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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06-04-13 12:44 AM |
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CNOTES
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Game 7, Pacers at Heat
June 2, 2013
All eyes will be on American Airlines Arena on Monday as the Heat and Pacers meet in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals. The winner will earn the chance to meet San Antonio in the NBA Finals this Thursday.
Miami was listed as an overwhelming favorite to win the best-of-seven battle, a handful of betting shops listing Miami as high as a 1/7 price (Bet $700 to win $100). The take-back on Indiana could’ve been purchased at 5/1 (Bet $100 to win $500) before the series began and that price soared to 7/1 (Bet $100 to win $700) after the Heat opened a 2-1 series lead.
The Heat put forth their best effort in Game 3, outclassing Indiana 114-96 and securing a wire-to-wire road victory. We mention that game because as good as Miami looked in the win, they looked just as bad in Saturday’s 91-77 loss to the Pacers in Game 6.
Miami actually led 40-38 at halftime before Indiana came out of the break with a 29-15 third quarter. The Pacers led by as many as 17 points and they withstood many runs from the Heat’s “B” squad. Roy Hibbert finished with 24 points and 11 rebounds, while Paul George posted 28 points, eight re bounds and five assist for the Pacers. LeBron James did his part once again for Miami, scoring 29 points, but nobody else on the team finished with more than 10 points and that’s been the hot topic in South Florida lately.
The production from Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh has been pathetic and that’s probably being nice. In the first six games of this series, LeBron has outscored the pair by 16 points (171-155), put up the same amount of assists (33) and has grabbed only six less rebounds (43-49).
Similar to past performances, Bosh took his fair share of the blame. “I didn't show up for my teammates tonight," he said, "and it will not happen again."
Wade however, quickly pointed the finger at others. "We've got to do a better job, all of us, helping get each other involved in the game. We've got to do a better job of making sure me and Chris can have opportunities to succeed.
Both Bosh and Wade are dealing with nagging injuries and you have to wonder what they have left in the tank for Game 7. Should you bet your hard earned money on the Heat knowing that the two-thirds of the so-called “Big Three” is shot?
Along with that question, there are plenty of others and we leaned on VegasInsider.com handicapper Kevin Rogers to answer them for you.
Looking at this series, Miami has responded with two wins both straight up and against the spread off a loss and this team hasn’t dropped back-to-back games since early January. Will the Heat rebound on Monday?
Rogers answered, “It's too easy to say that the Heat will automatically bounce back because they are back at home. However, past James, Miami isn't receiving the necessary support from Wade, Bosh, and the supporting cast to be successful against an Indiana squad getting consistent efforts. The Pacers haven't won back-to-back games either in this series, but they have pulled off the home win/road win in consecutive contests back in the first round against the Hawks.”
This series has been Indiana’s triple-headed monster of Hibbert, George and David West vs. the NBA’s Most Valuable Player, LeBron. Assuming both sides show up Monday, the game could come down to who gets better play from their backcourt. As a gambler, who do you have more faith in – the Pacers’ backcourt of Lance Stephenson and George Hill or the threesome of Wade, Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole?
“Indiana's backcourt has been up and down in the scoring department, but at least they have healthy bodies to throw out. Wade's shooting is off and his athleticism has dropped off due to his injured knee. I would count on Indiana's tandem of Hill and Stephenson since they have ability to hit shots and disturb Miami's backcourt,” answered Rogers.
Even though the series is knotted at 3-3, the Heat are still listed as seven-point home favorites over the Pacers and the money-line is as high as minus-400 (Bet $400 to win $100), which is definitely inflated.
History is on the Heat’s side here, with the home team winning close to 80% of Game 7’s in the NBA playoffs. Should bettors take that into consideration?
Rogers answered, “It's something to keep an eye on, but every series has unfolded differently with varying factors so that can't exactly be the path to follow when handicapping this game. Also, the Heat has been involved in only one Game 7 since the Big Three has come together, so they are also new in this spot.”
In last year’s championship run, Miami beat Boston 101-88 in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals, and they also covered the number as well. During this year’s NBA playoffs, there has only been one Game 7 and Chicago surprised some folks by beating Brooklyn 99-93 on the road.
Total players have watched the 'under' cash in two straight games and Game 7 has the lowest opening number (181) posted in this series. Should we expect another grind-it-out affair?
“It's not crazy to take the 'under' again simply because the Heat has to rely on James to carry them offensively. Indiana does not want to get into a back- and-forth affair, but another thing to consider is George's shooting, which has been streaky in the series. The 'under' is definitely worth a look with both teams putting up horrible quarters in each of the last two games,” said Rogers.
Another factor to watch is the free throw attempts. In Game 6, we saw a combined 37, which was up from 27 combined in Game 5. Outside of the insane shooting in Game 3, which was the only true ‘over’ winner, the other three games in this series were aided by free throws. Will the officials let them play Monday or should we expect a lot of whistles. Unfortunately, you can’t handicap the refs, regardless of what you conspiracy theorists believe.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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06-04-13 12:45 AM |
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CNOTES
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Heat, Spurs to play for NBA title
June 3, 2013
MIAMI (AP) - No more sitting out stars, and for the San Antonio Spurs, no more sitting around.
Finally, the NBA Finals matchup is set, and the Miami Heat will either win a second straight championship or the Spurs will go a perfect 5 for 5 in the title round while denying LeBron James a ring for the second time.
The Heat earned their third consecutive Eastern Conference title on Monday night, beating the Indiana Pacers 99-76 in Game 7 of their series. So it's Heat vs. Spurs for the Larry O'Brien Trophy, a series that will begin Thursday in Miami, on the same floor where the Heat and James finished off Oklahoma City to win last season's title.
Miami is looking for its third championship, San Antonio its fifth. And for James, it's a chance to erase a memory that has stung him for six years.
His first trip to the finals came when he was with the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2007, and it was ugly - the Spurs winning in a four-game sweep for what was their fourth title. San Antonio has not won the West since, so maybe it's fitting that its return comes against James, albeit with the now four-time MVP in a different uniform.
``Obviously, I needed more,'' James said. ``Our team, we were really good, but we weren't great. And that was a great team. We lost to a better team. So I understand that we needed more. We continued to get better over the years, but we never got to that level.''
When that series was over, Spurs forward Tim Duncan approached James in a quiet moment and offered some words of encouragement about his budding superstardom.
Four MVPs, two more finals trips and one ring - and counting - later, James' star level is now meteoric. He'll have a chance to not only win consecutive championships, but consecutive regular-season and finals MVPs as well.
``The best player in the world,'' is how Indiana coach Frank Vogel described James.
When the Heat and Spurs play on Thursday night, it will mark their third meeting of the season. It may as well be the first.
Miami won both games this season, though it's doubtful much of anything worthwhile could be gleaned for the scouting reports from those contests. The Spurs sat four regulars in the first meeting, and drew a $250,000 fine from the NBA after coach Gregg Popovich's decision to send Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Danny Green and Tony Parker home before the game and at the end of a long road trip.
Predictably, Popovich's decision was immediately subject to scrutiny, and he even joked in his pregame media availability that night that the crowd of journalists around him resembled what he'd see in an NBA Finals setting.
Which, come Wednesday when both teams will practice in Miami, is exactly what Popovich will see. It'll be a finals that have a clash of on-court, off-court and even cultural styles. The Heat play a flashier brand of basketball, have stars who are some of the world's best-known - and best-paid - endorsers of products, and have had no choice but to embrace a constant spotlight.
The Spurs, meanwhile, seem to revel in shunning any sort of extra attention.
``I wouldn't say we avoid the attention, but I don't think we're out seeking it,'' Spurs forward Matt Bonner said. ``Our team culture starts with our leadership, guys like Timmy and Coach Pop, that we focus on ourselves and what we need to do to complete the task, get the job done. Whatever attention we get outside of that, I don't think we run from it, but we're not out seeking it. At least, I think so. I hope so.''
When the teams met in San Antonio in late March, Miami's 27-game winning streak - the second-best run in NBA history - had just ended, so the Heat kept James, Dwyane Wade and Mario Chalmers out while dealing with injuries. And Miami prevailed anyway behind Chris Bosh, who hit a late 3-pointer to seal an 88-86 victory.
Nobody will be resting anybody on Thursday night. The Spurs, who will have been idle for more than a week by the time Game 1 starts, finally know who stands in their way.
``I think the latter part of these days are kind of getting kind of long,'' Duncan said Monday. ``But good preparation, good recovery time, all that stuff. Just anxious to know our opponent and start preparing for them.''
The Spurs have been going live in practice, trying their best to stay sharp.
``It's just long. It's long,'' Parker said of the layoff. ``Wish we could play like right now.''
Soon enough, he'll get his wish.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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06-04-13 08:35 AM |
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CNOTES
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NBA Finals Betting Angles
June 4, 2013
With the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs set to meet in the 2013 NBA Finals, let’s look at four solid Championship Round betting theories outlined below from our powerful database, along with some tantalizing team trends and an incredible stat.
All results are ATS since 1991 unless noted otherwise.
Home On The Road
Life may be cozy at home, but the money can be found on the road.
Our database finds visiting teams are moneymakers in the championship round, cashing 55% of the time, going 65-54-3 ATS.
Better yet, put them in a game with the Over/Under total is 181 or higher and they improve to a 61% winning proposition, going 54-34-1 ATS.
Put these same teams on the road in games with a total of 181 or more off a SU and ATS loss and they ratchet all the way up to 22-8 ATS, or a 73% ATS spread beater.
Return To Earth
Defense rules in the championship round.
That’s confirmed by the fact that teams who score less than 90 points in a game in this round are just 31-74 SU and 33-70-2 ATS.
When teams manage to score an inordinate amount of points in any one game, they return to the earth faster than a free-falling spaceship.
That’s validated by the fact that teams who score 110 or more points in a championship round showdown are just 6-9 SU and 5-10 ATS in their next contest.
Dress these same teams up as favorites after igniting the scoreboard and they short-circuit, going 1-8 ATS.
Meaningful Revenge
Speaking of returning to earth, teams in this round that had the rug pulled out from underneath them the previous game (lost straight up as a favorite) tend to right them selves in a hurry.
That’s confirmed by a rock-solid 22-12 SU and 18-14-2 ATS mark in games after being upset, including 12-4 ATS when they take to the road off the applecart loss.
Best of all, when road teams where upset as a favorite and managed to stay within 20 or more points to the spread, they are 11-1 ATS in these payback affairs.
Zigzagging
While the famed ‘Zig-Zag’ theory has unraveled the last 10 years in the playoffs, it still works in this round… if you work it right.
To do so you want to play on a ‘dog off one loss exact in the championship round, as they are 25-17 ATS.
Teams taking 5.5 or more points in this role increase to 13-5 ATS, including 10-1 ATS if they own a win percentage of .647 or more.
Championship Round Team Trends
Both teams own NBA Championship Round pedigree.
In this round, Miami is…
-- 10-7 SU and 8-8-1 ATS since 2006.
-- 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in games with an Over/Under total of 189 or more points
-- 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in games with an Over/Under total of less than 189 points.
-- 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS in games in which they fail to score 88 points.
-- 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS off a win of more than 6 points.
-- 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS versus an opponent off a win.
In this round, San Antonio is…
-- 16-6 SU and 15-7 ATS since 1999, most recently defeating the Cleveland Cavaliers (and LeBron James) in a four-game sweep in 2007.
-- 8-0 SU and ATS in games in which they score 88 or more points.
-- 7-0 ATS as a favorite of 6 or more points.
-- 4-0 SU and ATS in Game One (all as a host).
-- 9-1 SU and ATS versus an opponent off a win.
-- 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS with two or more days of rest.
Incredible Stat
San Antonio is 16-2 SU in all games when playing with 5 or more days of rest since 2004.
There you have it. Four time tested Championship Round theories, terrific team trends and an eye-opening stat. Play accordingly and, like the eventual champions, you too shall rule.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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06-04-13 08:09 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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Ginobili gearing up for another title run
June 4, 2013
SAN ANTONIO (AP) - The roar begins to build as soon as Gregg Popovich points over to the bench, usually midway through the first quarter.
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Manu Ginobili rises and so does the excitement level inside the AT&T Center. Of course, the anticipation is ambiguous because no one knows what the San Antonio Spurs' veteran guard will do once he gets on the court.
He could miss a wild 3-point attempt, the way he did in the second overtime against Golden State in this season's playoffs. Or he could do something big in the clutch, such as hitting a 3-pointer a short time later to win that same game.
``It's what you live with with Manu,'' Spurs forward Tim Duncan said. ``Does it amaze me? Everything he does amazes me - his good stuff, his bad stuff. It's what you learn to live with with him.
``He's someone that gives us so much of a different face. People can't plan for what he does. We're well-coached when we execute well, but you can't prepare for what Manu does, and that's one thing that makes us a better team.''
Ginobili and the Spurs are gearing up for the franchise's fifth appearance in the NBA Finals, where they will meet the defending champion Heat starting Thursday in Miami.
Not since Hall of Famer George Gervin finger-rolled his way into the hearts of San Antonio fans during an 11-year career have the Spurs had a player as popular as Ginobili. Duncan, Tony Parker, David Robinson and Sean Elliott all hold a special place in fans' hearts, but Ginobili has become one of the city's own.
``I don't know how we connected at first,'' the Argentine said. ``I just know that they kind of adopted me from the first minute I got here. Maybe it's my Latin roots, Spanish speaking, or maybe it's my type of game. I guess it was a little bit of everything.
``But it really helped me, especially early in my career. Now I'm a developed player, I've been everywhere and now I'm more used to it. But at the beginning, when I had so many doubts, I was the new guy in the NBA, the uncertainties and all that, having 18,000 people supporting me and cheering you up was a big help.''
The 6-foot-6 guard has given Spurs fans plenty to cheer about - and groan over.
He averaged 20.8 points and 5.8 rebounds during the postseason in guiding San Antonio to the 2005 NBA championship. During Game 7 of the 2006 Western Conference finals against the Dallas Mavericks, Ginobili scored 21 of his 23 points in the second half to rally the Spurs to a three-point lead with 32 seconds left. He broke their hearts seconds later by haphazardly fouling Dirk Nowitzki on a dunk, leading to a three-point play and an eventual Mavericks win in overtime.
Ginobili is averaging a respectable 11.5 points, 5.4 assists and 4.5 rebounds during this postseason, but the Spurs know there is another level to his game and they are eager to see it in the Finals.
``I still feel like Manu is saving his best for last,'' Parker said. ``I can feel a big final for him. That would be nice; we are definitely going to need it.''
Duncan agreed: ``I told him he's saving himself.''
Truthfully, Ginobili has never saved himself on the court since his earliest days playing basketball in Bahia Blanca, Argentina.
``He's just hell-bent for leather, absolutely all-out,'' Popovich said. ``He plays with a ferocity at both ends of the court that's very unique. Coaches love that stuff.''
At age 35, Ginobili no longer has the long, flowing hair that whipped violently each time he tumbled to the court - opponents would say flopped - but the fierce drives are still there in his 11th season.
``He's one of those guys, who, at age 50, won't be able to walk,'' former NBA coach Nate McMillan has said.
Ginobili already has difficulty staying upright, missing 22 games this season after missing 32 in the lockout-shortened 2012 season. After missing much of the final month of the regular season with a strained hamstring, Ginobili said he feels as healthy as he did entering training camp.
``It's great to have had this opportunity to keep playing,'' Ginobili said. ``I feel better. If we had lost in the first round, I wasn't even back. After three weeks sitting, then four games, five games and the season's over, you go back home with a really bad feeling about the season. But since the way things have turned out, to tell you the truth, I even forgot what happened during the season. I'm feeling good now. We're in the Finals, so who cares? No one is going to remember I missed 20 games during the regular season.''
While Parker and Duncan receive a lion's share of credit for the team's successful 16-year run, they know they need a healthy Ginobili to thrive.
``Manu is one of the ultimate competitors in our league, and has been for a long time,'' Popovich said. ``He has been a big factor in us winning games (and) winning championships. He's very important to what we do.''
It's not just his willingness to take a charge or fearlessness in taking a last-second shot that makes Ginobili critical to the team. He is a vocal leader and the team's resident cut-up, chastising the younger players when he isn't playfully bullying them.
Ginobli said he has no plans to retire, but he is cherishing this trip to the Finals more than his three previous appearances.
``I completely love what I do, and I think people can tell,'' Ginobili said. ``Even though I can start to see the end of the road, it's hard to really imagine being a retired player because I still really love what I do. I enjoy the locker room before a game. I even enjoy it after a loss; just the camaraderie, the stay together, going to dinner to talk about what we've done wrong.
``I feel like you've got somebody that supports you and you support somebody else. Trying to get over humps all together is great. It's a great feeling that you are probably never going to have ever again once you retire.
``Sometimes you are tired, you are older; it's harder to come back from injures, but at the same time, you enjoy what you do.''
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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06-04-13 08:12 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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Preview: Blackhawks (0-0) at Kings (0-0)
Date: June 04, 2013 9:00 PM EDT
EL SEGUNDO, Calif. (AP) - The Los Angeles Kings have been in all types of jams during the past two postseasons. Just a few weeks ago, they even escaped the same 0-2 deficit they're now facing in the Western Conference finals.
``We've been here, what, three weeks ago?' forward Justin Williams asked, referring to the Kings' great escape in the first round against St. Louis. ``Obviously it's not do-or-die (in Game 3), but it is.'
Yet the defending Stanley Cup champions aren't sure they've tangled with an opponent that could match the depth and versatility of the Chicago Blackhawks, who might even be the team to end Los Angeles' 2 1/2 months of perfection at home.
After back-to-back losses in Chicago, the Kings are hoping they can stay perfect at Staples Center in a crucial Game 3 on Tuesday night. The Kings have won 14 straight at home since March, and they've won seven straight home playoff games dating to last season's Stanley Cup clincher.
The Kings have no idea why they've been unbeatable at Staples Center, but they realize their repeat hopes depend on it.
``Home ice is something we've been able to rely on, and have in our back pocket,' Williams said Monday after the Kings' team meeting at their training complex. ``I'm (also) not sure why we went 10-1 on the road last year (in the playoffs). Certainly our confidence is high for us coming back home. There's been a lot of success there. We've won every which way there, and it's going to have to continue.'
Even two solid efforts in Chicago by coach Darryl Sutter's estimation weren't enough to turn back the Presidents' Trophy winners, who have won five straight postseason games after falling into a 1-3 hole against Detroit in the second round. The Blackhawks won both games of the conference finals in persuasive fashion, overcoming the Kings' greatest strengths along the way.
Chicago even chased Jonathan Quick out of Game 2 by scoring four goals against the Conn Smythe Trophy-winning goalie - something nobody had done in 34 straight playoff games over the past three years. Sutter acknowledged he pulled Quick partly to give him a brief rest for the remaining playoff grind.
The Blackhawks were reminded of the tenuous nature of any playoff lead in the second round, so they weren't brimming with overconfidence when they arrived on the West Coast.
``You look back at the St. Louis series, (and) they were up 2-0 coming to L.A.,' Blackhawks defenseman Brent Seabrook said Monday. ``We've got to continue to focus on the game (Tuesday) night. They're a great team, L.A. Quick is a great goaltender. We understand he's going to come back with a better game than he did last night. We have to continue to get pucks to him and make it tough on him.'
The Kings have lost at home in regulation just four times in this entire lockout-shortened season, but the Blackhawks were responsible for arguably the biggest defeat of them all. Chicago ruined the Kings' Stanley Cup banner-raising ceremony in the season opener in January, and the Blackhawks' 5-2 victory catapulted them to the start that led them to the NHL's best regular-season record.
``It's been a long time since we played here, and it was a special day when we began the season here for them,' Chicago coach Joel Quenneville said. ``There's some buildings in this league that can get real loud, get the crowd into it, and the team feeds off of that. I think there's more success this year on the home team's side in the playoffs. Hopefully we can get off to a great start and quiet it as best you can. It's tough on visiting teams trying to do that this year.'
After the long flight Monday, the Blackhawks arrived at their Beverly Hills hotel for a night of relaxation before their attempt to break through at Staples Center. As usual, the Blackhawks set up a large players' lounge at their hotel, filling it with an eye-catching buffet and multiple televisions and video game consoles - all to promote team bonding.
``The Hawks do a good job of making it easy on us,' forward Patrick Sharp said. ``It's a fun atmosphere to go down there and hang around with your teammates. You don't see enough of each other in Chicago with the families, people doing their own thing. It's always been fun to be on the road, be together, thinking hockey all the time.'
Although Quick blames himself for the Kings' road struggles, he isn't the real problem for the Kings, who have won a series after trailing 0-2 just twice in franchise history. Williams realizes the Kings aren't sustaining any offensive pressure on the Blackhawks, whose forechecking has kept the Kings pinned in their end for long stretches.
Los Angeles' scoring struggles are getting ugly, with just 29 goals in 15 playoff games - easily the lowest scoring average for any team that won a playoff round. It's not nearly enough to hang with the Blackhawks, whose talented lineup generates goals from all four lines and its defense.
The Kings have never been an offensive dynamo on the level of Chicago or Pittsburgh, but they didn't founder like this in the regular season. Their top scorers in last season's playoffs also are struggling mightily this year: Star center Anze Kopitar has just two goals in 15 games after enduring a lengthy goal-scoring slump to end the regular season, while captain Dustin Brown has a mere four points in the playoffs.
``It's pretty fair to say as a line, we're collectively in a slump,' Brown said of his partnership with Kopitar and Williams. ``We know what we need to do better. Getting into their offensive zone, our spacing is pretty significant. It's hard to play (without it), especially against a team like Chicago. When you don't have the spacing right, one guy eliminates the other guy.'
Center Mike Richards missed Game 2 with symptoms from an apparent head injury, and the Kings won't say whether he'll play in Game 3. Richards, who hadn't missed a game all season, is Los Angeles' leading postseason scorer with 10 points.
At least Tyler Toffoli is an intriguing addition to the lineup in Richards' absence. The big rookie picked up a goal in Game 2 while playing alongside top goal-scorer Jeff Carter, who moved over to center without Richards alongside him.
``Going back six games in the season, we've had trouble scoring,' Sutter said. ``It's not a home-road disparity at all. You know what? We're a good hockey club. We're not surprising anybody. There's no upsets now. We're trying to surprise the team that finished first overall.'
The Kings' championship poise might be their greatest asset in the next two games. With the confidence of last season's 16-4 run through the playoffs still fresh in most players' minds, Sutter's club doesn't really get rattled - even after winning just twice in its last seven playoff games.
``You can draw on the fact we've been in this situation before,' Brown said. ``The series is long from over in our mindset.'
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SERIES AT A GLANCE
GAME 1
Kings at Blackhawks
Sat, Jun 1 Final 1 to 2
Boxscores • Recaps
GAME 2
Kings at Blackhawks
Sun, Jun 2 Final 2 to 4
Boxscores • Recaps
GAME 3
Blackhawks at Kings
Tue, Jun 4 - 9:00PM EDT
GAME 4
Blackhawks at Kings
Thu, Jun 6 - 9:00PM EDT
GAME 5
Kings at Blackhawks
Sat, Jun 8 - 8:00PM EDT
GAME 6
Blackhawks at Kings
Mon, Jun 10 - 9:00PM EDT
GAME 7
Kings at Blackhawks
Wed, Jun 12 - 12:00AM EDT
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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06-04-13 08:15 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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Heat open as NBA Finals series, Game 1 favorites versus Spurs
The Miami Heat escaped Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals and are now favorites to win back-to-back NBA titles, opening as -220 series chalk against the San Antonio Spurs (+190).
Miami thumped the Indiana Pacers in the deciding game of the East finals Monday, winning 99-76 as a 7-point home favorite. The Heat will have two days to prepare for San Antonio, which will be off for nine full days heading into the finals since sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies in the Western Conference finals on May 27.
Game 1 is scheduled for Thursday in Miami. Oddsmakers have opened the Heat as 5.5-point home favorites. The Heat won both meetings with the Spurs, going 1-1 ATS this season, and have taken each of the past four games versus San Antonio (1-3 ATS).
NBA teams off seven-game series struggle in Game 1 of finals
The Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs have followed two different paths to the NBA Finals.
The defending champion Heat are coming off a grueling seven-game series with the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference finals, with just two days to recover before the NBA Finals begin Thursday. The Spurs, on the other hand, will have had their feet up for nine full days since sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies in the Western Conference finals on May 27.
Miami is a -220 series favorite versus San Antonio (+190) and is a 5.5-point home favorite in Game 1.
Teams coming off an emotional Game 7 win haven’t fared that well in the NBA Finals. Since 1993, 10 teams have gone the distance in their respective conference championship and only four of those went on to win the title.
Fortunately, for Miami fans, the Heat did just that last season after going the full seven versus the Boston Celtics in the East finals. But as good as Miami was in 2012, it was unable to avoid a letdown in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, like so many other teams in this situation.
Those 10 teams coming off a full seven in the conference finals have gone just 3-7 SU and ATS in the opening game of the championship series, including the 2012 Heat who fell 105-94 as 5-point road underdogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1 of last year’s finals.
On the other side of the series, San Antonio finds itself among the NBA’s elite by sweeping its conference championship. The Spurs are just the seventh team to win four straight heading into the NBA Finals since 1991, with four of those past six teams going on to win the title. However, in an odd twist, just two of those six teams managed to cover the spread in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.
The last time the finals featured one team off a sweep and one off a seven-game set was 2001, when the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Spurs in four games and played the Philadelphia 76ers, who edged the Milwaukee Bucks in seven contests. The Sixers stunned the Lakers 107-101 in overtime as 12-point underdogs but lost the series in five games.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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06-04-13 08:28 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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NBA Finals series betting preview: Heat vs. Spurs
The NBA Playoffs are down to two teams, the defending champion Miami Heat and the veteran-heavy San Antonio Spurs. This is the third straight NBA Finals appearance for the Heat and the Spurs’ fourth trip to the finals in the last 11 seasons.
Here’s a look at how these teams stack up and their odds to win the NBA Championship heading into Game 1 Thursday.
No. 1 Miami Heat vs. No. 2 San Antonio Spurs
Season series: Miami 2-0, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U
Series prices: Miami -220, San Antonio +190
Postseason record: Miami 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-7-2 O/U, San Antonio 12-2 SU, 10-4 ATS, 7-7 O/U
Why bet the Spurs: San Antonio has been off for nine full days since sweeping Memphis in the Western Conference finals. For most teams, that layoff would disrupt momentum but the Spurs have proven mentally strong during extended breaks, going 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS when playing on three or more days rest this season. The Spurs don’t have a true 7-footer inside like Indiana’s Roy Hibbert but they are tough in the paint, with Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter going up against a smaller Miami frontcourt. San Antonio can quickly adapt to any pace and Gregg Popovich has had ample time to cook up a plan for slowing down LeBron & Co.
Why bet the Heat: LeBron. The reigning MVP is approaching Jordan status as the ultimate trump card when it comes to arguing which team will win. San Antonio will throw Kawhi Leonard at James, who scored 23 points on 9-of-16 shooting in his lone game vs. the Spurs this season (missed the other due to injury), but there is no stopping LeBron. Not to mention, there’s still a chip on James’ shoulder from a 2007 finals sweep to San Antonio while with the Cavs. Dwyane Wade scored 21 points in the finale with Indiana, his playoff high. If he’s awakening from his postseason slumber, the Heat could burn San Antonio when it doubles up on James.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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06-05-13 06:13 PM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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NBA Finals prediction: Tough to pick against LeBron, but Spurs in 6
If you're looking for trends, evidence and head-to-head tendencies to help you formulate an opinion as to who will emerge victorious from the NBA Finals, good luck. You need to go back pretty far in the archives.
The Heat and Spurs haven't played each other at full strength -- Big Three vs. Big Three -- since March 2011, a 110-80 victory by Miami. They met only once during the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season -- another Miami blowout that did not include Dwyane Wade or Manu Ginobili.
This season's two matchups are of no use. Back in November, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich famously sent Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Ginobili and Danny Green home from a long road trip that ended with a five-point loss in Miami. The Spurs also were without Kawhi Leonard, which is sort of important since he'll be the one guarding LeBron James when the Finals begin Thursday night at American Airlines Arena in Miami.
The Heat returned the favor in March, holding James and Wade out with injuries in a two-point victory at San Antonio -- a game in which the Spurs also didn't have Ginobili. So, in trying to figure out who has the upper hand in the Finals, I'm not looking at all at the head-to-head matchups. Tendencies and mismatches can be much better detected when looking at what each team did in the regular season against everybody else.
We have all the data and video in the world available to us, but most of it just complicates things more than they need to be. As James said after losing Game 6 to the Pacers, as well as before and after Game 7, it's only a basketball game. It's not that hard to figure out what leads to winning and losing in the playoffs.
Think about what separates two good, evenly matched teams in a given game or series: turnovers, offensive rebounding, 3-pointers and free throws. It's a slightly different spin on the "Four Factors" developed by stat guru Dean Oliver, with some subjectivity thrown in. I look for vast differences between the teams in these and related categories, digest them and go with my gut. And in this case, my gut tells me the Spurs will win this series in six games.
First, these teams are awfully close in most or all of the key categories that separate winning from losing in the playoffs, based on numbers culled from HoopData.com:
• The Heat were first in offensive efficiency (110.3) during the regular season, while the Spurs were fourth in defensive efficiency (99.2).
• They were both top five in 3-point percentage and top 10 in frequency of 3-point shots relative to total field-goal attempts.
2013 NBA Finals
Expert picks: Two take Spurs, two take Heat
• They're virtually even in 3-point defense, with Miami holding opponents to .350 and San Antonio coming in at .353.
• Both were in the bottom five in offensive rebounding rate, and both were in the middle of the pack in turnover frequency.
• The Spurs were second in the league in terms of keeping teams off the free-throw line, whereas the Heat were eighth in the league in getting to the line.
Even my little brain can see those are too many areas where these teams are virtually equal to expect a short series.
But there are a few differences:
• Miami was fifth in the league in forcing turnovers, while the Spurs were 13th.
• The Spurs were third in keeping teams off the offensive glass, while the Heat were 23rd.
• In a related area, the Spurs have a significant advantage in defensive rebounding -- third in the league with a defensive-rebounding rate of 74.9, compared to Miami's 73.0, which was 23rd.
Miami's ability to create turnovers and take advantage of the Spurs in transition is potentially a very large swing factor in this series. To do so, the Heat can't simply rely on their defense to force misses; they're going to have to control the defensive boards better than they have all season. Remember, it was Pat Riley himself who coined the phrase, "No rebounds, no rings."
Don't fall into the trap that the Spurs want to play at a faster pace than the Heat simply because they did so during the regular season. The Spurs want a fast pace when they have the ball (which can be achieved through sustaining their identity as a sound defensive-rebounding team) and a slow pace when Miami has the ball (which can be achieved by making shots, taking care of the ball and getting second-chance baskets).
After tinkering with his rotation and searching the entire series for the right counter to the Pacers' size in the Eastern Conference finals, Erik Spoelstra will have a similar dilemma in the Finals. The Spurs present lots of problems with two 7-footers in the starting lineup, Duncan and Tiago Splitter. San Antonio's size and rebounding at both ends of the floor have great potential to create extra possessions at the offensive end while also putting a damper on the Heat's advantage in transition.
Now this is where the subjective part comes in. As much trouble as the Heat had with Roy Hibbert in the conference finals, they figure to have more trouble with Duncan and Splitter. The havoc that was created at times by George Hill in pick-and-roll situations will now be created by Parker.
When you add the fact that Wade had, at best, two impactful games in the Pacers series and Chris Bosh (who has played well against the Spurs) had, at best, one, I start leaning in the direction of the Spurs. And if I'm right that the statistical evidence across the 82-game schedule proves that these teams are very even in key areas that affect winning in the playoffs, then you should expect this to come down to a closeout situation in Game 6 and/or Game 7 in Miami. While the young Pacers weren't ready to take that step in their playoff progression, the Spurs have long since proved that they're as ready as anyone.
Another item that isn't so much subjective as fact: In James, the Heat have the best player on the floor in this series, and picking against him since he emerged from the 2011 Finals with a humiliating loss to Dallas has proven to be less than prudent.
But it's not an exact science, even though we try to make it one with all the tools we have to analyze the game. I can't guarantee that my pick of Spurs in six will be accurate, but I'm fairly confident in my assessment that this series will be close and 100 percent sure it'll be fun.
If you really want to know, that last part is the only thing I know for sure.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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06-06-13 07:24 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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Keys to the NBA Finals: Ginobili and Wade star in the last great western
When the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs tipoff the 2013 NBA Finals Thursday, the game will not be wanting for star power. No matter how low the ratings are for the Spurs, no matter how much their identity lacks a compelling nature, they do have three Hall of Famers on the floor. The Heat are basically a music video, they're so jammed with flash and celebrity. But hidden beneath Tim Duncan's Greatness and LeBron James' Other-Worldliness is something of an old western saga being played out between two figures, both alike in dignity, facing the cold twilight of their careers.
Their fans and advocates will remain steadfast that they are still heroes on the floor. Their critics will continue chiseling their basketball tombstones while the heart still beats. But for Manu Ginobili and Dwyane Wade, these Finals are not just about Ginobili's fourth title vs. Wade's third, or about validation of Ginobili in the Spurs' "offensive era" vs. Wade's recruitment of the Heat's "Triad" era. It's about their final statements on the world's greatest basketball stage. It's about setting their eulogies aflame and declaring they can still ball at the highest level. And it's about what could be providing their careers a glorious Finals bookend to their incredible careers, instead of a bitter pill to swallow as they walk off that stage.
That's not to say this is the last time we'll see either one. There's certainly a chance that Ginobili could elect to walk away should San Antonio, particularly if Tim Duncan decides to go out on a high note and Gregg Popovich smartly elects to exit right behind dphim as he's always said he would. Ginobili has made noise in the past about finishing his career somewhere other than the NBA and this would provide him with a quiet way to exit on top. But winning a title usually fuels an almost addictive desire to make another run at it.
Wade, four years younger than Ginobili, is certain to return regardless of this series' outcome. The money alone, at two more seasons at the NBA max (pre-2011) CBA is reason enough. He recognizes James, train is his best ticket to future success, and Wade's injuries and wear-and -tear are more identifiable as aggravating and limiting than disheartening and debilitating. He's coming back.
But neither player can be certain or even confident that they will return to the Finals, nor that they will have this level of prominence should they make it back. Even now, their roles are diminished by age and injury.
Wade faced a cacophony of ridicule after Game 6 vs. Indiana, and the refrain has remained the same throughout this season, only quieting for stretches when he showed flashes of his former self. That nickname he has abandoned, "Flash," has actually become more accurate with time. You still see the runner-dropping, Euro-Stepping, slither-and-strike Wade, but only for moments, only for quarters, only lightning strikes in the rain. Still, those waves are vial for how they change the Heat's dynamic. Game 7 vs. Indiana showed how much better Wade's presence as a threat makes Miami. Everything opens. For as much as LeBron James makes his teammate better, Wade makes James that much better at making his teammates better. (It's very meta.) But the Heat are no longer about "Wade and James" but about "How cam Wade help James?" It's an odd and unsettling transformation for Wade, even as it is one he's tried to accept and mold to. James doesn't need Wade, but the Heat do. Unlike the Spurs, the Heat aren't built to always find another path to victory.
Ginobili has become more symbolic than essential for San Antonio on the court. Popovich told reporters before the Memphis series that they needed to get Ginobili going. But it's largely not from a a structural standpoint. It's no longer about the production Ginobili provides, it's what he means to the Spurs. In many ways, Ginobili is the Spurs, barometer. When he has a good-to-great game, the Spurs are that much more multi-dimensional, that much deeper, that much better. But in the many games where he's quiet, it's become about Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard. Of note, Ginobili's most minutes and most points came in one of the Spurs' two playoff losses this year. But when Ginobili has had more than five assists in a game, the Spurs have just five losses this season, and none in the playoffs (7-0). So Ginobili still has an impact, to be sure, but not in the way it's billed on the marquee or in TV promos.
The comparisons between the two don't end in their relative marginalized impacts, the importance of what they addd when they do produce, or how age and injuries have robbed them of prominence. Both coaches are left with the task of having to hide players they have gone to battle with constantly over the years. Ginobili's struggles have come on the ball. He's no longer able to contain penetration against top level talent, and most of his impact on that end is felt on hustle and savvy plays like drawn charges and diving for loose balls. Ginobili's never been reliant on his athleticism, but he can't be assigned to primary weapons any longer.
Ginobili can be hid a bit effectively, though, by keeping him on shooters. In lineups with Shane Battier, Ray Allen, or Mike Miller, Ginobili only needs to stay home. Situations where he's called upon to help and recover will be problematic, but no more so than any other NBA wing's challenge to anticipate, rotate, and close out. Interestingly, Ginobili's biggest challenge may come when facing Wade, and that remains a battle worth watching, as Wade's diminished speed could allow Ginobili to bother him (particularly his handle). But if that flash of Wade shows up, it'll be a big problem for Ginobili, particularly if aware goes to the post.
Wade on the other hand remains decent on-ball, even if he's not able to lock up primary weapons ( hi there, Paul George) any more. But off ball is where you see his slip. Wade gets caught ball-watching too often as his man cuts back door and Wade is unable to recover. The Spurs are likely to punish Wade off screens as well, putting that battered body through a gauntlet to free their shooters and wear Wade down at the same time.
So both teams will spend time trying to hide franchise icons, and both teams will need their occassional brilliance. Both teams can't rely on consistent greatness from two players that have defined their franchises' greatness over the past decade. But neither team can forget their importance physically and even, yes, spiritually, for their squads.
Wade has meant more to Miami than Ginobili to the Spurs, Ginobili has been part of more consistent success than Wade. But both players are the aging gunslingers watching their joints get more stiff each morning and trying to make one more ride into legend. There's just one problem.
Only one of them gets to ride home with the gold after this adventure.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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06-06-13 07:27 AM |
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543
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Heat at Spurs, Game 3
June 11, 2013
With the NBA Finals knotted at 1-1, the best-of-seven series shifts to San Antonio for Tuesday night’s Game 3 at AT&T Center.
Most books have installed San Antonio (71-27 straight up, 50-46-2 against the spread) as a two-point home favorite with a total of 187.5. The money-line price for the Spurs is -130, while the Heat is +110 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $110).
For first-half wagers, San Antonio is a one-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 93.5.
Sportsbook.ag has adjusted the series price to Miami -165, San Antonio +145.
Miami (79-21 SU, 56-44 ATS) drew even Sunday by capturing a 103-84 Game 2 win as a six-point home favorite. The 187 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 189-point total.
The Heat broke open a tight game in the second half by turning a 62-61 deficit into a 27-point lead thanks to a 33-5 run. When LeBron James buried a trey with 7:43 remaining, Gregg Popovich emptied his bench to concede defeat.
James flirted with another triple-double, finishing with 17 points, eight rebounds, seven assists, three steals and three blocked shots. Mario Chalmers scored a game-high 19 points and didn’t commit a turnover in 35-plus minutes of action.
Chris Bosh finally had a good shooting night, draining 6-of-10 shots from the field. He produced a double-double with 12 points and 10 rebounds. Ray Allen has now made 6-of-9 shots from 3-point range in the series and is averaging 13.0 points per game. Mike Miller splashed the nets with all three of his attempts from deep in Game 2.
Danny Green scored a team-high 17 points in the losing effort. The UNC product made all six of his shots, including 5-of-5 from behind the line. Tony Parker made only 5-of-14 shots en route to a 13-point effort. He had just as many assists (five) as turnovers (five).
Tim Duncan finished with nine points and 11 rebounds, struggling from the field all night by connecting on just 3-of-13 attempts. Kawhi Leonard pulled down 14 boards but had only nine points on 4-of-12 shooting from the floor.
This is Miami’s first underdog situation in these playoffs. The Heat has been an underdog seven times this year, going 6-1 both SU and ATS. They own a 5-2 record both SU and ATS in even postseason road assignments.
San Antonio has won six of its seven home games in these playoffs, compiling a 4-3 spread record.
The ‘under’ has cashed in both Games 1 and 2 and has cashed at a 23-5 clip in the last 28 head-to-head meetings between these clubs. The ‘under’ has cashed in five consecutive Miami games and has gone 9-7-1 in the postseason. Meanwhile, San Antonio has seen the ‘under’ go 9-7 in the playoffs.
VegasInsider.com's Chris David offered up his thoughts on tonight's total. He said, "Bettors watched the ‘under’ cash for the game in both Game 1 and 2, even though the ‘over’ was a winner in the first-halves. The two teams both shot the ball well in the first-half of Game 2 but the Spurs scoring drought in the second-half set up the blowout, which allowed Miami to milk the clock. San Antonio only scored 39 points in the final two quarters of Game 2 but that result was similar to Miami’s 36-point effort in the second-half of Game 1."
"Nothing has surprised me in this series so far except the officials, who have kept themselves out of trouble, which has helped bettors taking the ‘under’ in the first two games. The Heat and Spurs combined for 35 free throw attempts in Game 1 and that number dropped to 28 on Sunday. I understand that both teams like to shoot from distance but if you believe all things balance out, then we’re certainly due to see an increase of an opportunities at the charity stripe in these next three games."
Game 3 is scheduled to tip at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
--Sportsbook.ag is currently showing LeBron James as the -200 favorite to win Finals MVP honors. Parker has the next-shortest odds (+180), followed by Duncan (+450), Wade (20/1), Ginobili (50/1), Bosh (50/1) and Chalmers (50/1). The ‘field’ has 25/1 odds.
--Maurice Cheeks has been named the new head coach of the Detroit Pistons, replacing Lawrence Frank. This will be Cheeks’s third NBA head-coaching gig. He posted a 284-286 regular-season record for Philadelphia and Portland. He had a 5-11 record in three trips to the postseason. Cheeks was the starting point guard for the 76ers on their NBA championship team in 1983.
--Despite dealing with the unpopular mid-season trade of Rudy Gay, Lionel Hollins led Memphis to a franchise-record 56 wins and a trip to the Western Conference finals. For his efforts, Hollins was shown the door yesterday. Don't worry, though, Hollins, a key reserve guard for the 76ers in the early 1980s, won't be out of work long.
--The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported Monday that the Hawks have hired Quin Snyder as an assistant for new head coach Mike Budenholzer.
--Also, the AJC reported Monday that former Hawks point guard Mookie Blaylock surrendered to the Jonesboro Police Department after being charged with second-degree vehicular manslaughter. Blaylock was released from an Atlanta hospital over the weekend.
--According the Associated Press, the Hawks and two other teams have been fined an undisclosed amount of money for tampering. The Hawks’ fine came after a letter to season-ticket holders mentioned the potential signings of Chris Paul and Dwight Howard.
--According to quotes from the man himself and published by USA Today, Kenny Smith has ‘been talking’ to the Sacramento Kings about their General Manager position.
Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.
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06-11-13 11:28 PM |
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