7:10 p.m. ET: Cleveland Indians (10-9) at Detroit Tigers (9-7)

Both of these AL Central rivals have winning records but have struggled as of late. Cleveland just got swept in a short two game series against the Cubs while Detroit lost two of three at home against the White Sox. The Tribe enter this showdown with the starting pitching advantage as they send Aaron Civale (1-2, 2.84 ERA) to the mound against Tigers veteran Ivan Nova (1-0, 5.74 ERA). This line opened with Cleveland listed as a hefty -160 favorite and the Tigers a + 150 dog. Pros and Joes don't seem to be worried about laying the big number. They've promptly steamed the Indians, pushing Cleveland up to -175. After a surprisingly impressive start to the season, Detroit took a big hit when first baseman and cleanup hitter C.J. Cron went down with a knee injury. The Tigers are 0-2 since he left the lineup.

8:40 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (8-9) at Colorado Rockies (12-6)



This interleague showdown features two teams trending in opposite directions. The Rangers have won two in a row and five of their last six games. The Rockies, on the other hand, have dropped three of their last four. The Rangers will start ace Lance Lynn (2-0, 1.16 ERA) while the Rockies trot out rookie Ryan Castellani (0-0, 0.00). Castellani is making his second Major League start. He threw 4 innings of shutout ball against Seattle six days ago. This line opened with Texas listed as a short -115 road favorite and Colorado a + 105 dog. Sharps have quietly backed Texas, driving the line up to Rangers -120. Road favorites are cashing at roughly a 65% clip this season.

With Sonny Gray taking on Chad Kuhl Friday night, the Reds are understandably pretty heavy favorites over the 4-13 Pirates. And even with their lofty price, they’ve been one of the most popular bets on tonight’s slate, drawing 80% of moneyline tickets.

But while the majority of bettors have been flocking to back Cincy, the sharper ones have been looking elsewhere for value in this matchup.

The over/under for this game opened at 9, and like the moneyline, it hasn’t presented a difficult decision for the betting public. About two-thirds of over/under bets have landed on the over, which isn’t too surprising given that bettors tend to prefer rooting for offense over pitching.

What is a bit surprising, though, is that the 65% of bets that have hit the over have accounted for only 25% of actual money landing on the total. In other words, the bigger bets — much bigger ones in this case — have been coming from those on the under. And who is likely making those big bets on a regular season NL Central total,market movement caused by sharp action — there have been five cases of smart money hitting the under since this number opened.

As a result, this total no longer sits at 9. It’s dropped to 8.5 across the market, and as of the early afternoon the under has even been juiced up to -118 at Parx.

9:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (14-7) at Los Angeles Angels (7-13)

The Dodgers took care of business in last night's series opener, winning 7-4. The Dodgers received a combination of both pro and Joe money that pushed them from -155 to -170 favorites. In tonight's Game 2, the Dodgers send young stud Walker Buehler (0-0, 4.40 ERA) to the mound to face Angels lefty Andrew Heaney (1-1, 4.26 ERA). This line opened with the Dodgers listed as -147 road favorites and the Angels a + 137 home dog. The Dodgers are a big name team with a far better record and are riding a three-game winning streak. As a result, they are an auto-bet for the public. However, despite receiving two-thirds of bets the Dodgers have fallen from -147 to -136. This signals some sharp action buying low on the Angels at home getting decent plus money (+ 137 to + 126). The total is 9. The forecast calls for 7-10 MPH winds out to left center.

After Washington’s 15-run outburst last night, all seems to be right in the world again. I had been thinking to myself “the Orioles can’t keep hitting like this, right?” and “it’s got to end at some point, right?”.

The Nationals ended their three-game skid and now take aim at catching the Marlins in the NL East. Surprisingly, the Orioles are only two games back of the Yankees, so a win tonight could potentially bring them to within one game of the division lead.

The Nationals offense has been pretty average so far with a .321 wOBA and 100 wRC+. However, they’ve been on fire over the past week with a .366 wOBA and 130 wRC+. Washington has mashed 13 home runs over the past week, which is the most in MLB during that span.

Juan Soto’s return to the lineup has completely revitalized the Nationals offense. In Soto’s nine games, he has a .412 batting average, a .569 wOBA

With Soto back in the lineup, the Nats offense looks like a World Series contender again. They should have no trouble against a weak right-hander like Asher Wojciechowski.

Asher Wojciechowski is a very below average righty. ZIPS projections have his FIP at 6.01, which is the equivalent of someone who should be in AAA.

His biggest issue is the home run ball. Last season he gave up 17 long balls in only 82.1 innings pitched, resulting in a 1.86 HR/9 rate. He could be in trouble tonight against a Nationals lineup that has been hitting home runs left and right over the past week.

Wojciechowski is mainly a fastball pitcher, but he has below-average velocity and his location is suspect. Opponents tagged his fastball to the tune of a .365 wOBA last season, including nine home runs on only 709 pitches. He has a curveball and slider that have decent movement, but his control and location is not up to par with the major league level.

Wojciechowski faced the Nationals six days ago but only pitched 3.2 innings, allowing three hits and no runs. Despite his short outing, the Nationals nonetheless benefit from having seen his stuff so recently.

Despite their 9-12 record, the Mets’ offense has been really good so far this season. They have the 6th-best wOBA (.335) and 3rd-best (117). Inserting Dominic Smith after the first week of the season has paid off huge dividends as the 25-year-old is already leading the team in home runs (4) and RBIs (12), while accumulating a .409 wOBA in only 51 plate appearances.

Steven Matz has been horrible to begin 2020 with a 7.21 FIP. His main issue he’s been really prone to giving up the long ball, as he’s been tagged for eight already.

Matz is a primarily a sinker ball guy, but hasn’t been very effective with it, giving up a .392 wOBA to opponents so far this year. In fact, his changeup has been the only effective pitch through his first four starts. The bad news is the Phillies have been crushing changeups so far this season (6.7 weighted changeup runs) and they also crush lefthanded pitching, so Matz is going to have to improve going forward or he could find himself out of the Mets rotation.
Philadelphia has been fantastic offensively to start the season. They have the fourth-best wOBA (.341) and the fifth-best wRC+ (115) in MLB. It’s no surprise they’ve been led by Bryce Harper, who has a .497 wOBA through his first 15 games, including a walk off single last night.

The Phillies have been absolutely mashing left handed hitting so far in 2020. In 179 plate appearances they have a .384 wOBA and 141 wRC+, which is significantly higher than their numbers against right handers. At this point in his career Matz is an average lefty at best, so the Phillies should have no trouble getting to him on Saturday.

Nola has been one of the best pitchers in baseball to begin 2020, posting a 1.78 xFIP through his first three starts. He’s made a commitment to his offspeed pitches, as he’s throwing his fastball the least of any of his pitches.

Nola’s success mainly comes from his curveball and changeup. His curveball almost acts like a slider with crazy lateral break, while his changeup has fantastic sinking action that moves down and in on righties. Both pitches have been really successful this season, producing over a 40% whiff rate and holding opponents under a .240 wOBA.

The commitment to throwing his offspeed pitches more has paid huge dividends for his fastball. So far, he’s hasn’t allowed a hit on his 55 offspeed pitches, so it’s clear he’s mixing his pitches really well right now.

Thanks Mike for all you do.Stay Safe

4:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (15-7) at Los Angeles Angels (7-14)

The Dodgers took care of business last night, winning 6-5 in 10 innings. Los Angeles cashed as a -145 favorite. In the final game of this three-game series, the Dodgers go for the sweep and send 22-year-old phenom Dustin May (1-1, 2.75 ERA) to the mound to face Angels veteran Julio Teheran (0-1, 13.50 ERA). In two starts this season, Teheran has given up 7 runs in just 4.2 innings pitched. This line opened with the Dodgers listed as -160 road favorites and the Angels a + 150 home dog. Both Pro and Joe money has gotten down hard on the Dodgers, pushing the line from -160 to -170. Road favorites are cashing at a 65% clip this season. The Dodgers are an MLB-best + 55 in run differential while the Angels are -9.Sharp action has also come down on the total. Pros jumped on the opener of 9.5 and pushed it up to 10. The wind is blowing out to center at 10 MPH.