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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
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MLS Final Four

here we go folks, let's get it done !
GL

Old Post 08-06-20 11:04 PM
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msudogs
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The final spot in the MLS is Back championship is on the line Thursday, with Orlando City taking on Minnesota United in a semifinal match in Orlando.

The winner advances to Tuesday’s grand finale, where it will face Western Conference side Portland at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex.

Orlando City, the lone Eastern Conference franchise left in the competition, enters this match following its stunning upset of tournament favorite Los Angeles Football Club. The sides played to a 1-1 draw through regulation and had to settle things via a penalty-kick shootout, which the Lions won to earn their spot in the semifinal round.

The shootout triumph was just another feather in Orlando City’s cap during its dream run on what’s basically “home” turf.

For Minnesota United, this competition has evolved into an “us-against-everyone” theme as the tournament has progressed. The Loons have gotten little to no respect for oddsmakers and pundits alike, which has created a large (and deserved) chip on their shoulders with the wins continuing to pile up.

Minnesota ran roughshod over San Jose in a 4-1 rout in the quarterfinal round, which came after its shootout win against Columbus in a Round of 16 fixture. The Loons have gotten a balanced offensive attack from their guys up front, but what’s been most impressive has been their defense. Minnesota has played the entire competition without Ike Opara, who is the reigning defender of the year in Major League Soccer, and still kept things in check in front of its goal.
Much like Wednesday’s semifinal game, oddsmakers have basically made this an even contest. Orlando City is the slightest favorite on the spread and three-way line, which is likely due to match location. I think if this was being played on a true neutral site, the odds would be flipped in Minnesota’s favor.

According to the data at FiveThirtyEight, Minnesota has the second-best chance to win the title via its Soccer Power Index numbers. The Loons sit at 41.9 points, which is ahead of the Lions (38.2 points) in the overall SPI numbers. That same data also gives Minnesota a 55% chance of reaching the finale and 30% shot at winning it all. In contrast, Orlando City is behind its foe (45%-23%) in those same categories.

When it comes to finding plays to land on, I really like the chances of both clubs scoring and will make it my top pick. Minnesota and Orlando City have been solid defensively throughout the competition, but both have kept only one clean sheet each in their five respective matches thus far.

Old Post 08-06-20 11:06 PM
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msudogs
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After close to 50 matches in nearly a five-week stretch, Major League Soccer is ready to crown a champion at its midsummer showcase.

The MLS is Back tournament reassumes the spotlight on Tuesday when Portland battles Orlando City in the grand finale.

It has been a dream run to the title match for both clubs, each of whom started the competition as huge long shots to capture the hardware. Portland and Orlando City both closed at 28-1 odds to win it all, so those folks who backed either side (or both for that matter) are a victory away from being handsomely rewarded.

Timbers have lived up to the hype the entire way. Portland enters this match fresh off of a thrilling 2-1 win against Philadelphia in the semifinal round. The Timbers now hope that they can produce a little more magic in the championship match.

On the other side, Orlando City has been just as stellar during its drive to the championship match. The Lions upset tournament-favorite Los Angeles Football Club in the quarterfinal round. Then Orlando City delivered an impressive 3-1 victory against Minnesota United in its semifinal match. Orlando City has basically been playing on “home” turf throughout the competition, and it has really blossomed as a club in the process.

Matchup Analysis
According to the data at FiveThirtyEight, Orlando City and Portland are flat-even in its final Soccer Power Index numbers. Both clubs come in at 39.2 points in the overall SPI numbers, with the Lions holding a slight edge to capture the crown (51% vs. 49%) against the Timbers.

The sides were just as close in goals data entering tournament as well. Portland came into the competition with 1.46 expected goals (xG) per game and 1.51 expected goals against for a -0.05 xGD/game. Those Timbers’ metrics bested Orlando City’s (1.21 xGF/1.30 xGA for -0.09 xGD/match) by the slimmest of margins.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

As for the best handicapping angles in this contest, I am backing both teams to score as my top play. Portland and Orlando City have each done enough on the defensive side of the pitch to reach this point. But, they have also combined for only one clean sheet through 12 matches thus far.

Old Post 08-11-20 11:10 PM
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