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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

KBO 5/30

The NC Dinos (17-4) finally got a taste of their own medicine on Friday as the Samsung Lions (9-13) erased a 4-0 deficit, by rallying for three runs in the seventh inning, and two runs in the ninth inning, to walk-off with a 5-4 win as a +215 underdog; snapping the Dinosí five-game winning streak in the process.

Favorites still went 3-2 on Friday, moving to 14-6 overall on the week, while under bettors continued their renaissance with another 4-1 day; as the 20 games played so far this week have only averaged 8.3 runs per contest.

Under bettors probably have some gripes about Fridayís Heroes-Wiz game, which ended in a 5-1 score despite a combined 15 hits, nine walks, and four errors.

And Iím a bit annoyed at the Giants-Bears game; which saw Doosan score four runs on five hits, while Lotte only managed to score two runs on 10 hits and four walks; despite reaching base for each of the first seven innings, with multiple runners on base in five of those innings.

After two weeksí worth of fighting and grinding to get back to over even for the season, Iíve fallen into another rut and back to where I was on May 15 Ė down more than five units in KBO betting while making a serious dent into my CPBL profits.

Baseball is an extremely high variance sport for bettors, and sometimes the lousy luck feels like a current moving against you.

Old Post 05-30-20 10:42 AM
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msudogs
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KT Wiz vs. Kiwoom Heroes
Wiz moneyline: +106
Heroes moneyline: -134
Over/under: 10.5
Time: 4:00 a.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Probable Pitchers: KT Wiz (William Cuevas) vs. Kiwoom Heroes (Won-tae Choi)

The Heroes prevailed, 5-1, in Fridayís game against the Wiz, with Eric Jokisch (7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 9 K) improving to 4-0 on the season, as the Heroes have won all five games that he has started.

The Heroes had the clear starting pitching edge in that matchup, and do so again on Saturday with 23-year-old righty Won-tae Choi (3.09 FIP; 3.21 in 2019) facing William Cuevas (4.48 FIP; 4.38 in 2019).

Typically, the imported KBO pitchers are of a higher quality than their domestic counterparts. Still, Cuevas has been a below-average starter since arriving in Korea, while Choi owns comparable command metrics at a young age and has been excellent at limiting the long ball (career 0.7 HR/9).

Cuevas is more of a flyball pitcher, and though he has a four-pitch mix (fastball, slider, curveball, changeup) with decent velocity (91 mph fastball) for the KBO, there isnít anything special about his profile.

While his slider has some nice shape, I havenít seen him throw it for strikes Ė and he relies on generating chases on pitches outside of the zone
The Wizís offense (115 wRC+) outpaces the Heroes (103 wRC+) so far this season, but keep in mind that these were two of the three best KBO offenses in 2019.

That said, the Heroes had by far the best bullpen in the KBO last season, while the Wiz rank near the bottom of the league dating back to last year.

Old Post 05-30-20 10:46 AM
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msudogs
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The Tigers were as sharp as a tack on Friday, with their line quickly moving from +100 to -120, and then -150. But the LG Twins are red hot, 8-2 in their last 10 games and winners of five in a row.

Chan-gyu Lim (2.38 FIP) gets the nod for the Twins on Saturday against Min-woo Lee (3.66 FIP), in a battle between starters who moved from the bullpen to the rotation last season.

Lim has significant starting experience, however, and his 21:2 strikeout to walk ratio through three 2020 starts is encouraging on the heels of a strong finish to last season; with an average game score of 48.3 over his past 10 starts, and 58 over his past five starts, including marks of 65, 47, and 51 this season.

Lee initially struggled after moving to the Tigers rotation, but he has averaged a 54.6 game score in his past five starts, including his four 2020 outings and his final start of 2019.

Old Post 05-30-20 11:18 AM
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