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msudogs
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Schalke hosts Werder Bremen on Saturday morning in a matchup featuring two teams headed in the wrong direction. Die Königsblauen currently sits in 9th place, two points off a Europa League playoff, but have been the worst team since Bundesliga resumed play. Schalke has not collected a point and has been outscored, 9-1, in their three matches since play resumed.
While Schalke will be desperate to get off the schneid, this is a must-win game for 17th-place Werder Bremen, who are five points from safety.
Schalke 04
Schalke has been in a horrific run of form since way before the break. David Wagner’s side is winless and has a -7.36 expected goals differential in its last 10 matches dating back to Jan. 25.
Schalke is a way more talented team their current run of form indicates. They finished second in the Bundesliga two seasons ago and made a run to the Round of 16 in the Champions League in 2018-19. There hasn’t been any significant turnover in their roster from those seasons, so their current slide is puzzling.
Despite only losing once in their first 10 matches at VELTINS-Arena, Schalke grades out as an average team at home this season with a -2.13 expected goal differential.
Werder Bremen
Relegation looks almost certain for Werder Bremen. Die Werderaner has the worst offense (27 goals) and the second-worst defense (59 goals) in the Bundesliga. Their offensive numbers are inline with their xG, but their defensive numbers (46.33 xGA) suggest they’ve been a bit unlucky in front of their own net this season.
That being said, Werder Bremen have overachieved on the road this season. Die Werderaner has 16 points in 14 matches away from home this season, but those results are unsustainable as their expected road output should be somewhere around 11 points. Additionally, Die Werderaner’s expected goals on the road this season is 13.37, which is dead last in the Bundesliga.
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05-30-20 11:56 AM |
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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Hertha Berlin v Augsburg | Saturday 30th May 2020
Hertha Berlin under the stewardship of Bruno Labbadia have looked superb. Matheus Cunha has been sensational along with other talented players who have massively underperformed this season such as Marko Gruijic, Vlad Darida and Dodi Lukebakio. When a talented manager comes into a new club with a good squad, a minor miracle occurs which shows the true ability of so many individuals.
A 2-2 draw against Leipzig was actually a harsh result on the side from the capital in hindsight. A mistake like no other from keeper Rene Jarstein allowed Leipzig to take the lead but Hertha showed character to win a penalty and get a draw. On another day, three points would have been a formality.
If you add this performance, along with their comfortable win against city rivals Union and Hoffenheim, Hertha are one of the form sides in the division.
With Hertha just seven points off Europa League places and sides struggling to find consistency with the strange environments they are now playing in, Die Alte Dame may have plans of heading on a European tour (once you are allowed to travel again safely).
Augsburg have been frustrating of late and have not managed to take advantage of favourable fixtures. A poor performance against bottom side Paderborn will lead to low confidence facing a buoyed Hertha side.
After watching Augsburg’s midweek match, the 3-0 victory against Schalke a few days appeared to be more of a representation on the defensive qualities of Schalke, rather than the attacking prowess of Augsburg. In fact, in their last four away matches, Augsburg have lost all four matches with an aggregate of 0-11.
Hertha have scored an average of three goals per-game since the restart and are facing a side struggle to make an impact in the final third. If Hertha can partially match their performance levels in their last few matches, a comfortable win should be on the horizon.
Hertha Berlin -1 Asian Handicap (17/10 Bet365)
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05-30-20 01:30 PM |
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msudogs
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Eintracht Frankfurt has been hard done by this season. Their statistical profile tells the story of a team that should be fighting for a Europa League spot, but their actual results put them in 14th place and in the thick of a relegation scrap.
According to expected goals, Frankfurt should have a goal differential of +4 but in reality it sits at -8, which tells you that Die Adler have probably been a bit unfortunate through 27 matches this season. Either way, it’s a fall from grace for the team from “Mainhattan” as last season saw them make a run all the way to the Europa League semifinals.
Wolfsburg’s results this season have been markedly better than their opponent’s, but Die Wolfe also have been unfortunate. Only two teams (RB Leipzig and Bayern Munich) have allowed fewer expected goals against this season and Wolfsburg’s +6 goal differential should be closer to +12 according to xG.
Despite decent defensive metrics, Frankfurt matches typically see plenty of balls hit the onion bag. Die Adler matches average 3.56 goals per match, which is the fifth-highest mark in the Bundesliga.
Wolfsburg, on the other hand, feel most comfortable in low-event contests. Die Wolfe averages 2.64 total goals per match, the fewest in the Bundesliga, and their 2.72 total expected goals per match suggests that those results hold water.
A three-game sample size isn’t nearly deep enough to draw any conclusions from, but Wolfsburg is the better form side in this showdown. Oliver Glasner’s side have won two their three games since play resumed and their lone loss was a closer-than-it-looked defeat to Borussia Dortmund. Die Wolfe should be flying off a 4-1 win over Bayer Leverkusen on Tuesday.
Frankfurt have not fought their way out of the relegation trenches just yet. Die Adler have taken just one of nine points since the league returned, though they did come back from a two-goal deficit with 10 minutes to earn a well-deserved draw against Freiburg on Saturday.
Wolfsburg’s defensive metrics certainly jump off the page, but Frankfurt’s backline can also do a job. Despite giving up 1.91 goals per match, Die Adler only concede 1.51 xG per game. Throw in Wolfsburg’s 1.16 xG allowed per match and it’s easy to see a path where this contest turns into a rock fight, which will suit both clubs since Wolfsburg does it best work in slugfests and Frankfurt won’t want to take any unnecessary risks since its trying to collect any points possible to avoid being dragged further into a relegation fight.
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05-30-20 01:38 PM |
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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Wolfsburg v Eintracht Frankfurt | Saturday 30th May 2020
After getting trounced against Dortmund last weekend, many would have expected a similar outcome for Wolfsburg against the all-conquering Bayer Leverkusen in the midweek fixture list. However, Die Wolfe completely nullified Leverkusen and won impressively 4-1. This resulted in them having a three-point cushion in sixth to place themselves in the best position possible for a Europa League spot.
This should come as no surprise, in truth. Wolfsburg are in superb form, leaving the Dortmund result aside. With only one loss in nine matches, including five victories, a win at home to the free-falling Frankfurt should appear a formality.
Frankfurt showed a lot of character midweek, but at the end of the day only managed to achieve a draw against Freiburg, despite being behind twice throughout the match and dominating throughout. Yet again, defensive frailties was the main theme of the match, just like it was against Bayern Munich.
Without a win in six and just five points clear of the relegation playo-ff places, Frankfurt are in a desperate position. Throughout this winless run, Die Adler have conceded 20 goals and in their last three away matches, they have managed to concede 13 goals.
Frankfurt have lost 10 out of their 13 away matches this season and recent history between the two teams suggests that Wolfsburg should find this game an opportunity to grab all three points to cement their European hopes. Wolfsburg have won five out of their last seven matches between the two sides and Frankfurt are clearly weaker than previous campaigns.
However, Wolfsburg are leaky at the back themselves. The home side have conceded in 14 of their last 16 league matches. Andre Silva and co to possess decent firepower for the guests but their vulnerabilities at the back far outweigh a nothing better than decent attack.
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05-30-20 01:38 PM |
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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Bayern Munich’s midweek victory over Borussia Dortmund all but secured that Diw Roten will again be champions of the Bundesliga for the eighth season in a row. They now have a seven-point cushion with just six matches to go.
At the other end of the table, Dusseldorf are in 16th place, fighting off potential relegation with three matches upcoming against Bayern, Dortmund, and Leipzig.
Dusseldorf are the league’s worst team from a statistical standpoint so it’s no surprise to see their trip to take on Bayern being priced as one of the biggest mismatches of the season.
Bayern on the moneyline isn’t even worth a look, and I don’t feel comfortable laying the three-goal spread given my questions about Bayern’s desire to get a big scoring margin playing its third game in eight days.
If holding a lead in the second half, I envision a scenario where Bayern manager Hansi Flick uses his five allotted subs to provide much needed rest to some of his top attacking talents who have logged a lot of minutes since returning from a lengthy layoff.
But Saturday’s match offers value in another area, where I’m expecting Bayern to have no issues dispatching Dusseldorf right from the opening kickoff. When the two teams met earlier this season, Bayern scored three first half goals and cruised into the finish in a 4-0 win. Dusseldorf rank second to last in goals scored, last in expected goals for, and last in xG difference per 90 minutes. Although they are unbeaten in their last five (one win, four draws), Dusseldorf haven’t played anyone in the top half of the table.
Dusseldorf’s early game defense numbers don’t look that bad at surface level, as they have conceded seven goals in the opening 30 minutes of matches this season. But according to xG, that number should be closer to 13.09.
Opponents’ inability to score early on Dusseldorf has been more a run of good fortune than anything else. Meanwhile, Bayern have jumped early on its opponents, scoring 16 goals in the opening 15 minutes, their second highest scoring 15-minute stretch of the game, behind only the 15 minutes after halftime.
We saw in Bayern’s win against Eintracht Frankfurt last weekend that once they went up 3-0, the defense switched off for consecutive corners and allowed back-to-back goals. Dusseldorf have scored five goals from corners this year, which could leave the chance for Bayern to be caught sleeping again. But I don’t see Dusseldorf creating much of anything from open play, which keeps me from taking any type of over bet.
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05-30-20 01:42 PM |
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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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After a disappointing draw with Werder Bremen on Wednesday, Borussia Monchengladbach will need to get back on track with three points against Union Berlin on Sunday or they can kiss their chances of playing Champions League football next year goodbye.
Union Berlin are in a precarious spot in the table, just four points above the relegation zone. Any result on Sunday would go a long way in securing a second season in the Bundesliga for Union.
Gladbach
Gladbach has stumbled in their past two games, losing 4-1 at Borussia Park to Leverkusen and drawing against bottom-feeder Werder Bremen.
Die Fohlen have been consistent at Borussia Park this season and boast the third-best expected goals differential at home this season. Additionally, Borussia Monchengladbach have beat up on the bottom of the table, going 7-0-0 with an xG differential of +9.05 in those seven matches.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Gladbach typically set up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, which typically yields a lot of goals. Die Fohlen’s four-pronged attack of Alassane Plea, Breel Embolo, Patrick Herrman and Marcus Thuram create an average of 1.97 xG per 90 minutes and will undoubtedly be a problem for Union Berlin’s defense.
Union Berlin
Union Berlin are hanging on for dear life right now in the Bundesliga. Currently sitting in 13th place, Die Eisernen have two losses and a draw and have been outscored, 7-1, since the Bundesliga resumed play.
Die Eisernen have been terrible on the road this season. With only 11 points in 14 matches, Union Berlin have the second-worst road record in the Bundesliga. They haven’t fared well against the top of the table, either. Union have yet to record a point and have been outscored, 22-4, in eight away matches against the top-10 teams in the Bundesliga.
Previous Meeting
Union Berlin won the previous meeting, 2-0, at the Stadion An der Alten Försterei. The expected goals report shows that the scoreline should have been closer to a 1-1 draw. Gladbach outshot Union Berlin, 13 to 11. and held 62.8% of the possession in that match.
Look for Gladbach to take adavantage of their chances and high amount of possession this time around.
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05-31-20 01:52 PM |
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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Handicapping motivation is not an easy thing in normal times, but trying to figure out if Borussia Dortmund will truly “be up for it” against last-place and certain-to-be-relegated Paderborn in a crowd-less stadium, a few days after losing their biggest match of the season, is worth considering.
Regression was always coming for Dortmund and Bayern Munich were the perfect team to deliver it to them in a close 1-0 victory. According to expected goals, Der Klassiker was essentially a coin flip, with Bayern winning the xG battle, 0.77 to 0.62. A moment of magic from Joshua Kimmich was the difference.
Bayern’s victory basically set Dortmund adrift from the title race as a seven-point gap with six matches to go is nearly impossible to overcome. BVB will now need to shift focus to keeping a hold on second place and on their automatic berth into Champions League.
SC Paderborn are almost certain to be relegated from the Bundesliga after 2019-20. Paderborn are eight points behind 16th-place Fortuna Dusseldorf and even if, by some miracle, Paderborn overtook Dusseldorf they’d still need to win a play-off against the third-place finisher from the second division.
On paper, there’s no comparing these two teams — Dortmund are on a completely different planet compared to Paderborn, but this is a tricky matchup to navigate.
As the table above shows, Dortmund is running hot on offense but their defense is a legitimate strength, ranking fourth in the Bundesliga in expected goals against this season. Paderborn’s bleak offensive numbers, on the other hand, are inline with their expected goals.
This game could be loose, considering the situational spots, and that could lead to a back-and-forth affair, but I’ll try and ignore that noise and stick to the numbers.
Dortmund should win this match handily and Paderborn’s 1.16 expected goals for per match suggests they could be in for a rough night. BVB may be known as an offensive force, but their defense is their true strength and I will back Dortmund to pitch a clean sheet in a win over feckless Paderborn at a decent price
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05-31-20 02:18 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Paderborn v Borussia Dortmund | Sunday 31st May 2020
Defeat in Der Klassiker has all but ended Dortmund’s title dreams. The gap was extended to seven points between the top two, now they have to fend off RB Leipzig, who are on their coattails. Tuesday’s loss came at a further cost with Erling Braut Håland and Mo Dahoud both picking up knee injuries, which will rule them off for varying lengths of time.
Talk suggests Thorgan Hazard will lead the line in a 3-4-3, which could Lucien Favre give Jadon Sancho a place in the starting XI.
Paderborn prop up the Bundesliga table and haven’t won in nine league games – that’s the same number of points they are adrift of the relegation play-off. Here at the Benteler-Arena, they haven’t won since before Christmas when they saw off Eintracht Frankfurt 2-1. In their 14 home games, they've netted in 13 with the only blank coming against Augsburg – and they drew another against that side on Wednesday (0-0).
Dortmund getting the job done
Die Schwarzgelben did what they needed to when they won at Wolfsburg last weekend. Their second goal came on the break when transitioning and that’s where they pose plenty of problems. In that game, they finished with an Expected Goals count of 0.91xG, so not as free-flowing as usual against stubborn opposition.
With the injuries taking their toll on Favre’s side, it’s a case of second-guessing their line-up with Hazard the likely frontman. But we did see Favre name Gio Reyna in the starting XI against Schalke before his injury in the warm-up, so there could be a curveball.
Looking back on their data before the break, their away xG tallies have been consistent. It was inferior against Gladbach, but they picked up the three points (Gladbach 2.60xG v 1.24xG Dortmund), while against Bremen they hit 1.33xG.
Those in yellow score around two goals per away game on average. Their last three away wins have all seen under four goals, while four of their last five wins, in general, have also gone under that bar.
Taking an away win and under four goals at 6/4 in the Bet365 Bet Builder looks a rather attractive play.
Don’t discount the hosts
As noted above, Paderborn have scored in 13 of their 14 home games this season, so they will pose Dortmund a few problems. Steffen Baumgart will be looking to former Norwich man Dennis Srbeny for more goals. He’s taken his tally to five since re-joining the club. He’s netted in their last three home games.
I did some digging around some Paderborn stats and there’s something that caught my eye in the team shots on target market. We can get for the hosts to have 4+ on target, but the bookies have priced this up a bit differently. For example, Sky Bet go 8/11 with Betfair 5/4.
Of the current top-six, Paderborn have played four of them at home. Here is their shots data in those games:
v Bayern – seven shots, five on target
v RB Leipzig – seven shots, four on target
v Bayer Leverkusen – 10 shots, seven on target
v Wolfsburg – 10 shots, seven on target
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05-31-20 02:18 PM |
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