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msudogs
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No. 10 Candy Tycoon
Odds: 20-1

Trained by Todd Pletcher, the son of Twirling Candy is coming in off a big performance in the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes. Javier Castellano was supposed to have the mount, but he decided to return to NY this past week, where he contracted COVID-19 and is now in quarantine. Candy Tycoon has one win, two seconds and a pair of third-place finishes from six career starts. While it took him five races to break his maiden, he has always been in contention and showed his versatility by coming from off the pace in the Fountain of Youth.

Even though he finished second to Ete Indien, he was carried wide for most of the race and made one big run at the end to edge out As Seen On TV by a neck. If you remove his lone turf start, his speed figures have continually improved throughout his career.

Since the Fountain of Youth, Candy Tycoon has had two works, one of which was a bullet going 4F in 48.12 seconds.

While he is going to be looked at as the Ďotherí Pletcher horse in the race, heís a good price and one that I will use in some exotics.

Old Post 03-28-20 10:36 PM
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If the Churchill Downs morning line bears any resemblance to the reality of this weekendís KDFW, overlays may be in the offing for Enforceable, Modernist and Three Technique. After a win in the Lecomte and an impressive second in the better division of the Risen Star, Enforceable (50-1 KDFW, 25-1 William Hill) drifted in fixed-odds futures because of his fifth-place finish two weeks ago in the Louisiana Derby. Bookmaker prices for Risen Star winner Modernist (50-1, 32-1) held steady after he finished third at 12-1 in the Louisiana Derby. After winning his last two races as a 2-year-old, Three Technique (50-1, 30-1) lost on wet tracks in the Smarty Jones and Rebel, and he might still be regarded as an overextended sprinter. The KDFW was due to open Friday at noon EDT and close Sunday at 6 p.m. As usual, the best advice is to wait until late to see how the odds look before making a wager.



Lacking any graded stakes this weekend in North America, the best racing available to U.S. bettors comes from Australia late Friday into early Saturday. That is when four Group 1 races are featured in the first week of The Championships behind closed doors on a rain-softened turf course at Royal Randwick, Sydney. Nick Quinn of Sky Racing Australia handicapped these top choices:

* Larimer Street (15-1) with a win-place bet in the seven-furlong ATC Sires Produce for 2-year-olds Saturday at 12:15 a.m. EDT. (Note that place bet on Australian races is like a show bet in the U.S.; there is no equivalent bet to finish at least second.)

* Rosehill Guineas victor Castelvecchio (9-5) to win the 1Ĺ-mile Australian Derby for 3-year-olds Saturday at 12:55 a.m. EDT.

* Front-running Nature Strip (5-2) to win the six-furlong, weight-for-age T.J. Smith Stakes on Saturday at 1:35 a.m. EDT.

* A nine-time victor on soft and heavy courses, top weight Melody Belle (7-1) with a win-place wager against the boys in the Doncaster Mile handicap Saturday at 2:15 a.m. EDT.

Old Post 04-03-20 09:14 PM
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Gulfstream 4/03

Race 7
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET

Race 7 is a $12,500 claiming event that will run on the turf course at the distance of 1 mile. To be honest, this was one where I didnít love any of these horses. I ended up having two selections here, but more by process of elimination, rather than strong opinion.

The favorite is No. 2 Interest (3-1), which is an interesting name because she had no interest in running last time out after she stumbled badly at the start. In her second start for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., she will be removing blinkers and she will be dropping in class. In addition to an equipment change and drop in class, she also gets jockey Luis Saez for the first time since her lone victory.

Interest has the highest speed figure in his most recent start compared to the rest of the field. Because of the troubled start, equipment change, drop in class and switch to one of the meets leading jocks, Iím making her my top pick, although Iím not that confident.

The other horse that I landed on was No. 7 Silly Notion (6-1). She is coming in after getting claimed in her maiden victory at Tampa Bay Downs. Sheís now trained by Larry Rivelli who is winning at 25% after a maiden win last time out and 26% when shipping in from another track.

Additionally she gets Tyler Gaffalione aboard who is winning 18% of his turf starts. Silly Notion came from off the pace in her career debut. No. 3 Fiamma Mamma (15-1) and No. 10 Teacher Dream (6-1) should give Silly Notion enough pace to run into, so Iím going to include Silly Notion in my plays, but as I mentioned earlier, I donít love either of these choices and ended up on them by process of elimination.

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Race 8
4:41 p.m. ET

Race 8 is a 1 mile Optional Claiming $62,500 event for non-winners of two that has eight starters. All but two of those starters are coming in off a layoff.

No. 4 Off Topic is the even-money favorite. She is by far the classiest horse in the field, having run in four graded-stakes races as a three-year-old. Off Topic hasnít been in the starting gate since September when she won an allowance race at Belmont. The Todd Pletcher trainee has consistently been working out for the last seven weeks, although none of the works have been all that impressive. While sheís the classiest in the race, sheís only won two of her 10 career starts, her maiden score and her most recent start. Sheís one that Iíll be including, but not my top choice in here.

I landed on No. 7 Iíll Take the Cake (9-2) as my top choice. She is trained by Saffie Joseph Jr and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione. This will be Iíll Take the Cakeís second start for the Joseph barn after winning in her first. She was able to sit just off the pace and won going away by 1 3/4 lengths. That victory came in a non-graded stakes race in mid-February.

Since then sheís shown up in the workout report three times, with her most recent being a bullet work going 47 2/5 seconds over four furlongs. Saffie Joseph is winning 32% of the time when his start was a winner last time out and 25% coming in off a 46-90 day layoff.

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Oaklawn 4/04

Race 7
Time: 5:06 p.m. ET

The first leg of the late Pick 4 is a $61K allowance race for non-winners of one. Itís for fillies and mares three years old and up and features a field of 12 horses.

We are going to go towards the outside with No. 11 Night Watch (8-1) as the top pick in here. After trying the turf unsuccessfully in her first two career starts, she has been competitive in all three races over the main track, finishing second, first and second.

Night Watch has early pace that will put her in the mix and her speed figures are good enough to win in this spot. Sheís also shown versatility being able to run on an off track, which is notable since we may have rain in at Oaklawn today.

Next, is No. 3 Maryanorginger (7-2), who is trained by Jeremiah Englehart and ridden by David Cohen. This filly had an interesting start to her career. She broke her maiden at first asking in a non-graded stakes event at Belmont last June and hasnít been seen since.

Itís not very often that you see a horse break his or her maiden against tougher competition, especially at first asking. Maryanorginger was also able to overcome stumbling badly at the start of that race. While sheís training well leading up to this spot, the long layoff is a bit concerning. She showcased her talent in that lone start so Iím going to include her here.

No. 9 Cardamon (9-2) is also coming in off a long layoff. She is trained by Bill Mott and will have Martin Garcia aboard. She broke her maiden in her career debut back in September at Churchill Downs. She then stepped up to allowance company finishing fifth after a poor start and being four-wide on the turn.

Cadamonís most recent start was back in November where she led most of the race until yielding late to finish third. That race was a route, run at a mile so she should appreciate the cut back in distance here. Sheís another one that Iím going to use.

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Race 8
Time: 5:38 p.m. ET

Next up we have an optional claiming $80K non-winners of one for three year olds run at 1 1/16 miles. Itís another deep field of 12 with four of the entries being Triple Crown nominated.

Letís start with the lukewarm morning-line favorite No. 5 Answer In (3-1). He is one of the Triple Crown nominated horses and the son of Dialed In was purchased for $175K as a weanling at the Keeneland September 2017 sale.

The Brad cox trainee has never missed the board in four career starts with a win, two seconds and a third. His most recent start came in the G3 Southwest where he finished third behind Silver Prospector and eventual Louisiana Derby winner, Welles Bayou, who is also trained by Cox.

Answer Inís best speed figure is by far the strongest in this race and his running style should put him in a great spot sitting just off the pace. Joe Talamo will be up and as we previously stated the team of Cox and Talamo has been hot recently. Because of his competitiveness, the drop in class and his speed figures, Answer is going to be my top choice in this race.

The other horse to consider in here is No. 3 General Trev (9-2). Trained by Steve Asmussen, General Trev won his debut making a strong move four-wide to take over and never look back. The son of Constitution is a home bred for Jerry Durant. Asmussen wins at a 22% clip when his horse broke its maiden last time out and wins at 20% in route races. General Trev has trained over an off track multiple times and his breeding also suggests that he should like it so heís one that Iím including.

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Race 9: The Purple Martin Stakes
Time: 6:09 p.m. ET

The feature on todayís card, and the only stakes race in the country on Saturday, is the $100K Purple Martin Stakes. Itís for three-year-old fillies and will be run at a distance of six furlongs and is set for a field of 10 horses.

No. 8 Frankís Rockette (5-2) is the morning-line favorite for the Purple Martin. The daughter of Into Mischief is a home bred for Frank Fletcher and is trained by Bill Mott. She has never missed the board in five career starts, with two wins and three seconds. She is also the classiest horse in the race with all of her second-place finishes coming against graded stakes competition. In her most recent start, which was her first off a layoff, she romped the field in a non-graded stakes event at Gulfstream by seven lengths with little asking.

Frankís Rockette also put up her best speed figure in her last start, which is also the best speed figure among any in this field. Sheís my top pick.

Next, we will go down towards the inside with No. 2 Ring Leader (6-1). She is coming in off her first career loss, a fifth-place finish in the G3 Honeybee. That was her first try at a route distance and it seemed to be too much for her.

Prior to that, Ring Leader had three consecutive wins for trainer McLean Robertson. Sheís a horse who wants the lead, but itís not going to be as easy with others in here who also are gunning for the front. Joe Talamo will be back aboard after she had David Cohen in the irons in her last start. Talamo piloted Ring Leader to a win two starts back against similar competition in a non-graded stakes event. Iím going to include her in my ticket.

No. 6 Lexi On the Move (8-1) is coming in a perfect 2-for-2 lifetime. Trained by Robertino Diodoro and ridden by David Cohen, the daughter of Fast Anna was purchased for $160K at the OBS June 2019 sale. Both of her wins came right here at Oaklawn and both took place at this distance.

Lexi On the Move sat just off the pace in both of her starts and won going away after kicking clear late. Diodoro is having an excellent meet sending out winners 28% of the time and is winning at a 27% clip when his horse is coming off a win. Cohen is Diodoroís go-to rider as the two have teamed up 70 times in the last 60 days winning an astonishing 30% of the time. With her running style sheís one that stands a big chance at a great price. You must include her.

Another one in here to consider is No. 4 Edgeway (3-1). The daughter of Competitive Edge was purchased for $275K at the OBS April 2019 sale.

Trained by John Sadler and ridden by Tyler Baze, Edgeway won impressively in her debut by five lengths. That win came right here at Oaklawn at the same distance of six furlongs. Since that win, she has recorded two good workouts. Sadler is winning at 20% in non-graded stakes races and he has a 20% win rate when he teams up with Baze.

While I donít like her odds, sheís one that Iím going to include in my ticket.

The other horse that we need to talk about is No. 1 Kimari (4-1). Sheís trained by Wesley Ward and hall of famer Mike Smith flies in from California for the mount. After an extremely impressive maiden score by 15 lengths back in April 2019 at Keeneland over the main track, she was moved to the turf for her next four starts. She won two of those races and finished second once, all against stakes competition.

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Race 10
Time: 6:38 p.m. ET

The last race of the day is a $60K Maiden Special Weight for three-year-old horses and features a distance of 1 1/16 mile with a full field of 12.

No. 5 Wild Union (7-2) is the morning-line favorite. He is 0-for-8 lifetime, but is always competitive with five seconds and two thirds. The son of Bayern was purchased for $265K at the OBS March 2019 sale. He is trained by Brad Cox and will have Joe Talamo in the irons.

While he always seems to be competitive and in the mix, he hasnít shown the drive or fire to win. This isnít a strong field and because heís shown a competitive spirit and being trained by Brad Cox, Iím going to include him.

My top pick in here is No. 8 Mo and Go (6-1). The son of Uncle Mo is coming in second of a layoff for trainer Jeremiah Englehart. He sat just off the pace in his last start, but didnít have the necessary kick coming for home. Englehart is winning 25% of the time in his second race of the layoff and Mo and Go is bred to like an off track. With this being his second start off the layoff and putting in three good workouts since his last start, Mo and Go should be fit and ready to run in this spot.

The last horse to consider is No. 4 Aztec Empire (4-1), who is coming back after just 15 days for trainer Ron Moquett. The son of Tapit is getting blinkers for the first time to help him concentrate and stay focused on the task at hand.

In that last start, Aztec Empire finished third after sitting just off the pace and slowly gaining on the second-place finisher. That start was also over an off track, which shows that he can handle a wet surface.

While I normally donít like horses coming back on such short rest, the addition of blinkers should help him stay focused. Iím going to include him.

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Saturdayís racing features the late Pick 4 sequence at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas, including the Oaklawn Mile (Race 9 at 5:43 p.m.) and Oaklawn Stakes (Race 11 at 6:48 p.m. ET).

Old Post 04-11-20 07:36 PM
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4/11

Gulfstream Park
Race 6 (Pick 3, Pick 4)
Time: 2:52 p.m. ET

There are a couple of horses that I like as singles in the middle Pick 4, but weíll begin with the No. 7 Dark Web (4-1) and No. 13 Ima Pharoah (6-1) in Race 6.

The former is tied for the highest last-out speed figure, and he likes to be near the lead in a race without a ton of pace. The latter is a son of American Pharoah, who should continue to improve in his second start after a sharp debut for trainer Todd Pletcher.

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Oaklawn Park
Race 2 (Daily Double, Pick 3)
Time: 2:08 p.m. ET

The No. 8 Miss Imperial (3-1) is favored for trainer Brad Cox, having won her past two starts against better competition.

The question is whether the other speed in this race wears her down with jockey Florent Geroux likely looking to press the pace.

Race 3 (Daily Double, Pick 3)
Time: 2:39 p.m. ET

The No. 8 Skol Factor (2-1) ran a big 83 Beyer-speed figure in his debut and is coming off of a bullet work on April 20. This is one of my favorite win bets of the day and much the horse to beat in this maiden special weight.

In Race 4, the only two horses to crack 90 in terms of speed figures are the No. 2 Shooters Shoot (7-2) and No. 5 Blackberry Wine (3-1), which limits the selection pool.

And in Race 5, I have another favorite win bet in the No. 12 Cynical Girl (9-2), who should lay over this field if she runs back to her 83 Beyer-figure from February when she remained game after carving out blistering fractions.

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Oaklawn 4/11

Race 8
5:12 p.m. ET

First up in the sequence is a $61K Allowance race for four year olds and up at a distance of one mile with 12 runners.

Letís start toward the outside with No. 9 Proverb (9-2), who is trained by Richard Baltas and ridden by Joel Rosario. Last time out was the first off the layoff for Proverb, where he finished in third by 1ĺ lengths over a sloppy track. In that race he lacked room, but finished well. Today, he gets the benefit of a drop in class and one of the top riders in the world in Rosario.

With it being the second off the layoff, dropping in class, getting Rosario aboard and hopefully working out a better trip, Iím making Proverb my top choice.

Next we have a longshot in No. 2 All West (20-1). Trained by Wayne Catalano, All West will have Joe Talamo in the saddle. He broke his maiden in impressive fashion last time out, kicking clear to win by four lengths. Since then, heís posted three strong workouts, the most recent being a bullet five-furlong work. The speed figure number that All West posted in his maiden score is good enough to win this race

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Oaklawn 4/18

Race 1
Time: 1:35 p.m. ET

We begin the day going six furlongs in a fairly deep maiden race, starting with the No. 9 Rivers of Lite (7-2), making his second career start. Heíll need to improve off of that effort ó a 47 Beyer ó and should after a five-furlong bullet work (first of 33) on April 4. The jockey/trainer combo of Chris Hartman and Corey Lanerie is 13-for-42 (31%, $2.69 ROI) in 2019.

The No. 3 Written Permission (4-1) owns the top last out speed figure (58) when he finished second by a neck after cutting back from 8.5 furlongs.

And the No. 5 My Legacy (6-1) has the top back figures in the field and should improve in his second start off of a layoff.

Lastly, the No. 10 Mayan Ghost (8-1) may be trending the wrong direction, but drops down in class for trainer Norman McKnight Ė who is 20 for 79 in Maiden Claimers while winning at a similar rate in sprints (26%) and after layoffs between 31-60 days (25%).

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Race 2
Time: 2:06 p.m. ET

I like Brad Coxís No. 9 Metropol (3-1) on top, stretching out in this 1 1/16 mile route. He should appreciate the added ground, and Cox has some key indicators in his corner Ė 28% win rate in claimers; 26% in routes; 22% going from sprint to route; and 34%, 56 for 166 in the second start off of layoffs between 45-180 days.

But Iím a bit worried about a couple of high-percentage turf to dirt trainers ó Tom Amoss (28%) has the No. 3 Delp (6-1), and Federico Villofranco (23%) sends out the No. 4 Times Square (8-1).

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Race 3
Time: 2:37 p.m. ET

This is a one-mile race, and Iíll use a couple of horses who came out of the same key maiden special weight race on March 13.

The No. 9 Too Pretty (3-1) was second by a length that day, and both the eighth and twelfth place finishers came back to win $16K maiden claimers at Oaklawn. Additionally, trainer Daniel Peitz is eight for 48 (17%, $4.66 ROI) when waiting 31-60 days between races.

The No. 10 Lovely Lou (5-2) was third in that same race but ultimately lost ground in the stretch to the top two finishers.

The No. 1 Moonshine Miss (5-1) should improve going around two turns for trainer McLean Robertson Ė who wins 26% of the time with such moves.

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Race 4
Time: 3:08 p.m. ET

The No. 2 Dancin in Paradise (4-1) runs again for trainer Doug OíNeill after a poor effort on April 3. Heíll add blinkers (21%) while cutting back from a route to a sprint (21%), and OíNeill also wins at a slightly higher rate in claimers (24%).

The No. 5 Six Fire (15-1) will have to improve while facing winners for the first time, but youíre getting a square price.

The No. 9 Lady Gusto (7-2) runs consistent figures and goes out for a barn winning 24% of the time in claimers.

The No. 10 Punish (9-2) figures to take a lot of money. She has barely missed the winnerís circle in each of her past two starts, and sees a jockey upgrade to Joel Rosario.

Lastly, the No. 11 Oh My Oh (6-1) is an intriguing runner, second off of the claim for the Borel brothers. She gained on Punish in the stretch of her last start, and should be in contention after a couple of good recent works.

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Race 5
Time: 3:39 p.m. ET

Trainer Michael J. Maker wins 30% of the time going from Maiden Special Weights to Maiden Claimers, so the No. 3 Master of Domain (3-1) should pique your interest.

The rate is even higher for the No. 9 Liamís Tempest (4-1) and trainer Tom Amoss ó four for 12 making the same move with a 30% win rate overall in maiden claimers.

However, I donít think his horse is fast enough to win. My only alternative is the No. 4 Skyvalue (7-2), the only horse besides Master of Domain with a last-out Beyer higher than 50.

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Race 6
Time: 4:10 p.m. ET

Two horses in this 1 1/16 mile route have back speed figured over 80: The No. 5 Dr. Hipp (6-1), trained by Randy Matthews, who wins 22% of claimers; and the No. 12 Altito (4-1), trained by Tom Amoss, who wins 23% of claimers.

My alternatives are the No. 4 Dangerfield (6-1), who returns to the claiming ranks, and the No. 6 Gray Sky (5-1), who ran a career-best last-out while winning a 10K claimer.

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Race 7
Time: 4:42 p.m. ET

Bob Baffertís No. 5 Dessman (5-2) is the one to beat, stretching out from 6.5 furlongs to a mile in his second start of the year.

Baffert wins 30% of the time in allowance races, and heís 9 for 21 (43%) when adding blinkers, which Dessman had in his maiden victory, and heís the only horse in this field to crack a 90 Beyer.

My backup options are the No. 1 Wild Popit (4-1), who is two-for-two at this meet, having beaten a few next out winners, and the No. 10 Hersh (10-1) who also adds blinkers and goes out for a new barn.

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Race 8 (Count Fleet)
Time: 5:14 p.m. ET

The No. 9 Whitmore (5-2) is looking for a record third victory in the Count Fleet, and wonít have to face as brutal a foe as he did last year in one of my all-time favorite horses, Mitole.

He could also go over $3 million in career earnings with a win or place effort, and should be able to work out a good stalking trip behind a fair amount of speed. He owns three triple-digit Beyer scores in his past four starts, has had a ton of success at Oaklawn Park, and is my clear top selection even in a loaded race.

The No. 4 Bobbyís Wicked One (3-1) and No. 7 Hidden Scroll (4-1) figure to hook up with one another on the front end, in addition to the other early speed in this race. I donít really want much of those two at short prices.

Instead, their presence should help to set up a pace scenario for Whitmore, the No. 2 Flagstaff (7-2) who ships in from California, the No. 3 Hog Creek Hustle (15-1), and the deep-closing No. 11 Nitrous (20-1) Ė and Iíll likely be utilizing that group of four in some single race exotics.

Whitmore and Flagstaff are the ďAĒ options for multi-race wagering.

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