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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

World Cup 2018 R of 16

will go ahead & get this started
GL

Old Post 06-22-18 12:32 AM
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geg1951
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France has already qualified and will move on as group winner if it avoids a loss to Denmark.

Much rides on the result of that game, as Australia needs a Denmark loss to have any chance of qualifying.

The Socceroos will go through if they beat Peru and Denmark loses to France, but keep an eye on goal difference; it will certainly play a role in deciding this group.

Group C Standings
Country GP W D L GD Pts
France 2 2 0 0 +2 6
Denmark 2 1 1 0 +1 4
Australia 2 0 1 1 -1 1
Peru 2 0 0 2 -2 0

Old Post 06-25-18 07:19 PM
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geg1951
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Group D is wide open, with the potential ousting of Lionel Messi and Argentina the headline story.

Croatia is already through, and only needs a point to lock down top spot.

Nigeria can confirm its place in the Round of 16 with a win, but a draw or loss could lead to an exit for the Super Eagles.

Argentina and Iceland both need to win and see Nigeria stumble.

But even if that happens, goal difference will be required to separate the teams, so expect to see plenty of attacking intent on Tuesday afternoon.

Group D Standings
Country GP W D L GD Pts
Croatia 2 2 0 0 +5 6
Nigeria 2 1 0 1 0 3
Iceland 2 0 1 1 -2 1
Argentina 2 0 1 1 -3 1

Old Post 06-25-18 07:20 PM
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geg1951
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Brazil and Switzerland both move on with a win or tie (against Serbia and Costa Rica respectively).

Serbia could leapfrog Brazil and head into the Round of 16 if it can pull off the upset on Wednesday.

If Brazil lost it would only stay alive if Costa Rica beats Switzerland.

Group E Standings
Country GP W D L GD Pts
Brazil 2 1 1 0 +2 4
Switzerla 2 1 1 0 +1 4
Serbia 2 1 0 1 0 3
Costa Rica 2 0 0 2 -3 0




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
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Old Post 06-25-18 07:21 PM
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geg1951
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Group F Standings
Country GP W D L GD Pts
Mexico 2 2 0 0 +2 6
Germany 2 1 0 1 0 3
Sweden 2 1 0 1 0 3
So Korea 2 0 0 2 -2 0
Group F is going to get confusing on Matchday 3, with a dizzying array of possibilities still in play.

Mexico only needs a tie with Sweden to move on as group winner, but nothing else is that simple in this group.

Sweden is finished if it loses to Mexico, but if Sweden and Germany both win, the tiebreakers will kick in.

As it stands, both teams have identical points, goal difference, and goals scored. The next tiebreaker would go to Germany, thanks to its 2-1 win over Sweden.

South Korea could throw all of that out the window with a win over Germany, potentially leading to a three-way tie and another trip to FIFA's tiebreak rules.




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
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Old Post 06-25-18 07:24 PM
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geg1951
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Group G Standings
Country GP W D L GD Pts
England 2 2 0 0 +6 6
Belgium 2 2 0 0 +6 6
Tunisia 2 0 0 2 -4 0
Panama 2 0 0 2 -8 0
It's another battle for top spot in Group G, with England and Belgium facing off.

The two teams have identical results so far, so there's a chance 'fair play conduct' will be the decider.

In that case, the team with the fewest bookings would move on as group winner.




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
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Old Post 06-25-18 07:25 PM
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geg1951
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Group H Standings
Country GP W D L GD Pts
Japan 2 1 1 0 +1 4
Senegal 2 1 1 0 +1 4
Colombia 2 1 0 1 +2 3
Poland 2 0 0 2 -4 0
Japan and Senegal can both remove any drama by winning their final games and cruising through undefeated.

Colombia will be bundled out with a loss to Senegal, making that matchup a de facto knockout game.

Group winner is still up for grabs as Japan and Senegal have identical results so far.

Those tiebreak rule could feature prominently yet again.




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
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Old Post 06-25-18 07:25 PM
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geg1951
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FYI for those who may need this........part of the tie-breaker rules

A booking means the player's name is written in the little book that the referee carries. If the player has been booked once, he or she is shown a yellow card. When booked a second time, the red card is shown. Both events involving "bookings".




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
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Old Post 06-25-18 07:29 PM
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eagleseye13
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Posts: 1807

Belgium/England

Belgium manager already said they are resting people against england..FFS..

1-1, 0-0 tie and England get some cards...

terrible way to lose the "Winner" of the group bet...

Obv have belgium..lame sauce




eagleseye13

"It doesn't matter who wins the game, it matters who covers"

2014 MLB Season Contest 2nd place +1985 (59-35-3)

Old Post 06-26-18 05:50 AM
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msudogs
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Saturday, June 30
France vs. Argentina, 10 a.m. ET
Three-way moneyline (regulation only): France (+141), Argentina (+244), Draw (+210)
To advance: No line yet
Over/Under: 2 (-108/-107)

France won Group C without much of a problem, although they didn’t look all that impressive. Les Bleus finished with two wins and a draw, scoring three goals and allowing one along the way. The road to the knockout rounds was a lot trickier for Argentina. After drawing against Iceland and losing to Croatia, La Albiceleste rescued a late win against Nigeria to finish second in Group D.

Uruguay vs. Portugal, 2 p.m., ET
Three-way moneyline: Uruguay (+177), Portugal (+210), Draw (+195)
To advance: Uruguay (-119), Portugal (-101)
Over/Under: 2 (+109/-124)

Uruguay won Group A with a win 3-0 win over Russia while Portugal finished second in Group B thanks to a draw against Iran. Uruguay made it through the group stage without allowing a single goal, while Portugal finished with one win and two draws, scoring five goals and allowing four.

Old Post 06-27-18 12:58 AM
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geg1951
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France have lost one of their last 15 internationals.

France have kept two consecutive clean sheets in this tournament and the only goal they have conceded was a penalty.

Argentina have failed to win any of their last three games against European opposition conceding ten goals.
-----------------------------------------------
Uruguay have kept six straight clean sheets.

Portugal have only won two of their last seven games.

Uruguay have one defeat in their last 12 matches.
-----------------------------------------------
Spain are unbeaten in their last 23 games.

Spain are sixty places higher than their opponents in the FIFA World Rankings.

Russia have never beaten Spain in six previous meetings.




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
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Old Post 06-29-18 09:55 PM
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msudogs
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We are now in the business portion of the World Cup. The field has been whittled down to 16 teams, and from this point out it’s lose and go home.

At the time of writing, Brazil are the favorite to win the tournament with Spain a close second. Behind them are Belgium (+660), England (+750) and France (+900). Croatia has seen their odds slashed significantly after going 3-0 in Group D. The Croats came into the tournament at +3500 and are now priced at +1250.

The story of the last week has been the unbalanced draw in the knockout stages. In one quarter of the bracket are France, Argentina, Uruguay and Portugal. Compare that to the England, Colombia, Switzerland and Sweden quarter and you can see why a lot of people were wondering if teams were going to lose on purpose to get into the “easy” quarter.

Old Post 06-30-18 01:06 AM
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msudogs
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France vs. Argentina, 10 a.m. ET, FOX
France +140
Argentina +255
Draw +210
Bet To Watch
Draw +210

It took a very late game-winner against Nigeria in the final group match in order to advance, but Argentina somehow found a way to progress. They have not played well in any of the three games so far despite having a plethora of talent available, and coach Jorge Sampaoli has struggled to find the right strategies and lineups. Against France, they’ll need to have a clear and direct plan of attack.

France were the winners of Group C, beating Peru and Australia before drawing with Denmark in the final group match. They weren’t the most convincing in any of those games but looked more like a team than Argentina, and have defended much better as well (1 goal conceded vs. 5).

Argentina does have a few things going for them, starting with the fact that they have Leo Messi. If they can get him the ball in better positions, the attack will open up much quicker and the build-up won’t be so stagnant. Easier said than done as N’Golo Kante will have an eye on him.

Another positive is that they looked done and defeated against Croatia, but still found a way in the end to respond and beat Nigeria. Sure, they were -200 favorites to do so, but Germany were -500 to beat South Korea and got blanked, 2-0, with their tournament on the line. Nothing can be taken for granted in the World Cup.

La Albiceleste could be without midfielder Enzo Perez, and I wonder if we’ll see Angel Di Maria stay in the lineup out wide. I’d imagine Gonzalo Higuain gets another start up top, but that leaves Sergio Aguero and Paolo Dybala on the bench once again.

Les Bleus may be without defender Samuel Umtiti but are otherwise healthy. They are -145 favorites to advance past Argentina (+125), but they may need extra time to do it.

Oddsmakers are expecting a tight, low-scoring match but public bettors are not. More than 80% of bets is on over 2 goals, but odds have shifted toward the under (-101 to -110). Sharper bettors believe that this could be a 0-0 or 1-0 result in 90 minutes, and at worse a 1-1 finish.

Fewer goals certainly helps the draw, yet only 9% of tickets has been placed on it. Both Argentina (+255) and France (+140) are getting about 45% of the moneyline bets, so the draw is also a great contrarian angle to take here.

Old Post 06-30-18 07:52 AM
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msudogs
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Portugal vs. Uruguay, 2 p.m. ET, Fox
Portugal +194
Uruguay +185
Draw +187
Bet to Watch:
Uruguay to advance -112 (5Dimes)

The old cliche in boxing is that ‘styles make fights.’ This match is no different. Both Portugal and Uruguay have a well-earned reputation for being pragmatic and hoping for a bit of magic from one of their world-class talents. On paper this has all the makings of an ugly, defensive slugfest and has a real possibility of going all the way.

While that formula is what sent Portugal through Group B — not to mention that it won Portugal a European title two summers ago — I do wonder if Uruguay is straying from the script a little bit. It may look like Uruguay stuck to their guns in their first two matches against Egypt and Saudi Arabia, but they put up 1.7 expected goals (xG) against the former and 1.3 against Saudi Arabia. In their third match, Uruguay completed the Group A sweep with a comprehensive 3-0 win over Russia in their first “real” test.

Portugal on the other hand, posted 0.5 xGs in a 3-3 draw against Spain, 1.4 in a 1-0 win over Morocco and 0.5 in their 1-1 draw against Iran. If it wasn’t for Ronaldo’s heroics and a mesmerizing goal from Ricardo Quaresma, we could be talking about Iran’s chances right now instead of the Iberians’.

But that’s the thing with Portugal. They have Cristiano Ronaldo, and their squad is littered with players such as Quaresma, who may not be a 90-minute soldier but has magic in his feet, and that always gives them a puncher’s chance.

While Ronaldo is the best player on the pitch, the Sky Blues are overall the better team. Uruguay’s centerback duo of Jose Gimenez and Diego Godin is one of the best in the tournament, and the two stalwarts are very familiar with Ronaldo as they both ply their trade for La Liga’s most sound defensive club, Atletico Madrid. Gimenez and Godin are in a different class compared to Portugal’s Jose Fonte and Pepe. The two veteran defenders can be solid on their day, but they are more of an unknown quantity at this point in their careers and they will be tested by Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani.

The betting odds echo my sentiment here. Uruguay are the slightest of favorites around the market, and money has come in on the draw. The total — which is as low as 1.75 at Bookmaker — also indicates that this is not an easy one to call.

In the end, I think Uruguay’s talent will win out. The odds imply that Los Charruas have ~ 52.8% odds of advancing, and I think that’s low. They’re the better team, so that’s where I’m looking.

Old Post 06-30-18 07:58 AM
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msudogs
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France vs. Argentina (10 a.m. ET)
Moneyline Odds: France +140, Argentina +255, Draw +210
Odds to Advance: France -145, Argentina +125

Public bettors are picking a side to win in regulation with 46% of bets on France and 44% of bets on Argentina. Most of the early line movement has been toward Argentina, but there’s also been a slight shift toward the draw despite attracting just 10% of tickets.

The low of total of 2 goals has enticed more than 80% of bettors to take the over, but sharper money is responsible for juice on the under. This is also a good sign for contrarian bettors hoping for a draw.

Bettors are just about split on the goal-lines of France -0.5 (+140) and Argentina +0.5 (-150).

Old Post 06-30-18 08:00 AM
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msudogs
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Uruguay vs. Portugal (2 p.m. ET)
Moneyline Odds: Uruguay +192, Portugal +197, Draw +193
Odds to Advance: Uruguay -120, Portugal +100

You won’t see many matches with nearly identical three-way moneylines, but that’s what Uruguay and Portugal bring to the table in the Round of 16. Despite similar probabilities for all three results, the market breakdown shows little love for the draw once again:

Uruguay (45%)
Portugal (44%)
Draw (11%)

There was early line movement in Uruguay’s favor, but odds are basically back to the opening numbers. This could be another contrarian draw to take, especially with a low total of 2 goals and heavy juice on the under (-133).

Again, public bettors have had no problem taking the over, which has accounted for 65% of O/U tickets.

Old Post 06-30-18 08:04 AM
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msudogs
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SOC [225203] FRANCE DRAW +208

WC
5-1-1 +4.15

Old Post 06-30-18 08:36 AM
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HoustonFan
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Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 6159

Saturday Round of 16

France/Argentina - Draw +210
France to advance -155
BTTS +115

Uruguay +198

Beer money
France/Arg 1-1 +500
Uruguay 2-0 +1200

20-20-2
-1.52

GL

Old Post 06-30-18 02:28 PM
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geg1951
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Posts: 14866

IMO

argentina can't carry france's jock .... they spent all they had left on tuesday !!

366614616
SOC France +140

glta




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
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Old Post 06-30-18 02:39 PM
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rojero
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Posts: 7167

FRANCE UNDER 2+105
URUGUAY UNDER 2 -128

Old Post 06-30-18 03:54 PM
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