we've had a favorite win , a draw & now it's time for a doggie to collect ......latin hotheads = Cards

366016339
SOC Poland +243

glta

WC 14-16-1 ...+384

Poland tt over 1 +105

GL

lets do this Gush !!!

Colombia! looked great, Poland poor

3-2 on official plays. Picked up a bit on a small play on Senegal/Japan draw (not counted)

11-13-1
-2.08

On to the third round. Bet carefully, and do your research on who needs wins, and who is going fishing.

JAPAN UNDER 2...L
COLOMBIA OVER 2-122....W
COLIMBIA WIN+123......W
6-1

366016339
SOC Poland +243


WC 14-17-1 ...+284

see ya in the A.M.

SOC [225317] TOTAL o2½-112 (PANAMA vrs ENGLAND)..........W
SOC [225325] COLOMBIA +123.............W

WC
5-1-1 +4.15

Group A
All game times ET. Numbers in parentheses: (points | goal differential)

Monday, 10 a.m.: Russia (6|7) vs. Uruguay (6|2)

This one is simple: Uruguay tops the group with a win, Russia tops it with a win or draw. Both are through either way.

Group B*
Monday, 2 p.m.: Portugal (4|1) vs. Iran (3|0) | Spain (4|1) vs. Morocco (0|-2)

Portugal and Spain enter Matchday 3 level on points, goal differential and goals scored. If they both draw or win by identical scores, they both advance, but we go to the fair play tiebreaker to determine the group winner. Portugal is currently on two yellow cards, Spain on one. So if Spain were to pick up one more yellow card than Portugal in identical results, there’d be a drawing of lots.

If Spain and Portugal were to lose by identical scores, that same process would send one through as runner-up and eliminate the other. Iran, by way of its hypothetical win over Portugal, would top the group.

Spain and Portugal can each secure progression with a draw.

If Iran and Portugal draw, and Spain loses, Portugal would top the group. If Spain were to lose by multiple goals, Iran would go through in second; if by one goal, Spain would go through, provided Iran doesn’t score at least four goals.

Group C*
Tuesday, 10 a.m.: France (6|2) vs. Denmark (4|1) | Australia (1|-1) vs. Peru (0|-2)

France is through, and can clinch top spot with a draw. Denmark can secure a Round of 16 place with a draw, and can win the group with a victory.

Australia needs a win and a Denmark loss. If either margin is more than one, Australia goes through. If the scores are identical, Australia goes through. If both margins are one, and Denmark scores more goals in defeat than Australia does in victory, the Danes survive. If they score the same amount of goals – for example, a 2-1 Denmark loss and 1-0 Australia win – discipline comes into play. Australia currently has three yellow cards to Denmark’s four. If that evens out … lots.

Group D*
Tuesday, 2 p.m.: Croatia (6|5) vs. Iceland (1|-2) | Nigeria (3|0) vs. Argentina (1|-3)

The simple permutations: Croatia is through, and will top the group with at least a draw. Iceland and Argentina, on the other hand, would each be out with a draw. Nigeria would advance with a win, or with a draw and anything less than an Iceland win by multiple goals.

Argentina is at the heart of the complexity. It can advance with a win and Iceland draw or loss. If both Argentina and Iceland win, they would be level on four points. Argentina would have to make up one goal to bring differential level as well.

[More on Group D: Why Nigeria’s win over Iceland aided Argentina]

If Argentina scores one more goal than Iceland and wins by a goal more than Iceland wins by – so, say, 2-0 and 1-0 – we’d go to fair play, where Iceland’s ZERO yellow cards would give it a major advantage (Argentina has three). If Iceland were to even the discipline standings, we’d go to lots.

Bet to Watch:
Russia +206

This match mostly doesn’t matter. Both teams have already qualified for the knockout stages. And while winning the group is important, there’s plenty of uncertainty about the draw ahead for these two countries.

The winner will play the runner-up of Group B, while the loser plays Group B’s winner. Spain is likely to win Group B and is certainly a more challenging prospective opponent than either Portugal or Iran, but the Spanish side of the bracket also looks set to be easier.

When the future is that murky, most teams just end up not worrying too much about it and trying to win. Over two games, Russia have been a better side than Uruguay. They’ve taken apart both Saudi Arabia and Egypt, while Uruguay struggled to grind them down. Russia’s single greatest trait so far has been their ability to pour it on late, and pad their lead. They’ve scored eight goals, and five of them have come after the 59th minute.

Uruguay are a very strong defensive side, which is something Russia haven’t had to cope with yet. Don’t expect the same level of outright dominance that Russia has put up so far, but they should still be unexpectedly fresh in the dying minutes.

On the other side, it might make sense for Uruguay to look to preserve the legs of one, or both, of their strikers since Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani are both on the wrong side of 30. Uruguay are, first and foremost, an extremely practical team. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see them accept a draw or narrow loss to give themselves more of a shot when the knockout round beings.

Bet to Watch:
Spain -278

Morocco have already been eliminated from the World Cup, and Spain need to win (and possibly then win some tie breakers) to ensure that they’ll win the group. And for Spain, winning the group is hugely important.

Given how the tournament has broken down, Spain could have one side of the bracket all to themselves if they win the group, while fellow pre-tournament favorites Brazil, Germany and France are bunched together on the other side. So, don’t expect them to rotate too heavily.

Morocco are a good team, and it’s unfortunate for them that they ended up in such a difficult group, and then lost a hard-fought game with Iran. But Morocco’s style isn’t a good fit for upsetting Spain. They are a very aggressive pressing side, perhaps the most aggressive pressing team in the tournament.

They’ve been quite good, both through qualifying and in this tournament at blowing up other team’s attacking coherence. While Hakim Ziyech was enough of a one-man attacking wrecking ball to get the team to this point, he hasn’t been able to get Morocco on the scoreboard at the big show.
Spain, unfortunately for Morocco, were created in a lab to handle pressing teams. They have an infinite number of midfielders who are creative passers on the ball, and have the patience to work in tight spaces. Some combination of Andres Iniesta, Isco, Thiago, David Silva and Koke will play in front of Sergio Busquets, and they’ll work together as a unit to get the ball through the press and create high-quality goal-scoring opportunities.

It’s hard to see anything but a win here for Spain, and that will set them up in a big way for the remainder of the tournament.

Saudi Arabia vs. Egypt, Group A
10 a.m. ET

Both Saudi Arabia and Egypt have already been eliminated from the World Cup, but this match will decide the country that will last in the group, which is meaningful for some bettors.

Egypt were a trendy pick to advance, but Mo Salah’s injury hampered those expectations. They were beaten by Uruguay in the opener without him, and lost to Russia 3-1 with him.

Almost everyone anticipated Saudi Arabia to lose all three games, but they did look much better in the last match against Uruguay than they did against Russia in the opener.

While more than 80% of the moneyline bets have come in on Egypt (-108), there’s barely been any line movement.
There’s also a bit of unrest surrounding Salah’s willingness to play, not the best sign for a team already out of it. The public is all over the Pharaohs anyway, but I would be very careful backing them.

Uruguay vs. Russia, Group A
10 a.m. ET

Uruguay and Russia are already through to the Round of 16. This meeting will decide which country finishes first in the group. A Russian win or draw would put them on top, while Uruguay would take the throne with a victory.

The South Americans are the slight favorites (+163) but it’s Russia (+215) getting the majority of support. Public bettors also like the over (2).

Iran vs. Portugal, Group B
2 p.m. ET

Iran (+508) need to beat Portugal (-139) to have a realistic chance of advancing, but could get through with a draw and a Spain loss by 2+ goals. Public bettors are all over the Europeans in this one, though, with more than 80% of tickets on Portugal. Just 8% of bettors are taking Iran and 7% on the draw (+272).

Bettors are nearly split on the low total of 2 goals, but the O/U did open at 2.5, so there’s already been movement toward the under.

Spain vs. Morocco, Group B
2 p.m. ET

Morocco have already been eliminated despite a decent effort in the first two matches, while Spain are tied atop Group B with Portugal.

Unsurprisingly, more than 80% of bettors believe in Spain (-287) to win and more than 75% expect them to win by multiple goals.

Public bettors are also split on this total, but juice has trended toward the over 2.5 recently

366083962
SOC Egypt v Saudi Arabia Over 2.25 -107

366083963
SOC Uruguay DRAW +208

glta

WC 14-17-1 ...+284

Uruguay Draw No Bet -115

11-13-1
-2.08

“Do not’s” of betting final World Cup⁠ ⁠ group stage matches:

▪️Do not bet on a team because “they need to win”

▪️Do not assume teams will play to try manipulate their R16 positioning

▪️Do not blindly bet the over because one team needs to make up goal differential

future plays posted...

Belgium/Tunisia o2.5 -130..........W
Argentina/Croatia o2..................W
Japan/Senegal over 2/2.5...........W
Poland/Columbia over 2/2.5........W

6-6 WC

Uruguay Group A Winner -140 ….W

Uruguay Draw No Bet …..W

13-13-1
-0.08

Spain -1,-1.5 -110
Portugal -156

Beer Money
Spain 2-0
Portugal 2-0

WINNER
366083962
SOC Egypt v Saudi Arabia Over 2.25 -107

366083963
SOC Uruguay DRAW +208

WC 15-18-1 ...+284