Miami (4-15) @ Cubs (11-7)
— Luzardo is 0-2, 7.65 in four starts.
— Miami is 0-4 in his starts.
— over 2-2
— allowed run in first inning: 0-4
— record in first 5 innings: 1-3
— He is 2-0, 2.88 in four starts vs Chicago.

— Marlins lost 15 of their first 19 games.
— Miami is 0-7 in games where winning run scored from 7th inning on
— Marlins are 2-4 on road.
— under 4-1 last five road games.
— scored run in first inning: 4-19
— record in first 5 innings: 8-9-3
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-3.1-x

— Taillon is making his first 2024 start.
— He was 8-10, 4.84 in 29 starts last year.
— In his career, he is 59-45, 4.00 in 172 starts.
— He is 2-0, 0.54 in three starts vs Miami.

— Cubs won four of their last five games.
— They’re 5-1 at home.
— under 6-2 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 4-18
— record in first 5 innings: 8-5-5
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4.2-4.2-x

Milwaukee (11-6) @ St Louis (9-10)
— Peralta is 2-0, 2.60 in three starts.
— Milwaukee is 3-0 in his starts.
— over 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-3
— record in first 5 innings: 3-0
— He is 3-6, 5.86 in 11 starts vs St Louis

— Brewers are 1-3 in their last four games.
— They’re 7-2 on road.
— over 10-2-1 last 13 games
— scored run in first inning: 7-17
— record in first 5 innings: 11-4-2
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 6-5.1-x

— Gibson is 1-2, 6.16 in three starts.
— St Louis is 1-2 in his starts.
— over 1-1-1
— allowed run in first inning: 2-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-1-1
— He is 1-2, 5.44 in eight starts vs Milwaukee.

— Cardinals are 4-6 in their last ten games.
— They’re 3-3 at home.
— under 7-2 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 3-19
— record in first 5 innings: 5-11-3
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2-4-x

NY Mets (10-8) @ Los Angeles (12-9)
— Manaea is 1-1, 5.52 in three starts.
— New York is 1-2 in his starts.
— under 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-1-1
— He is 1-5, 7.50 in seven starts vs Los Angeles.

— New York is 10-3 in its last 13 games.
— Mets are 4-2 on road.
— over 6-3 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 4-18
— record in first 5 innings: 6-6-6
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3.2-4-3

— Yamamoto is 1-0, 1.80 in his last three starts.
— Dodgers are 1-3 in his starts.
— over 3-1
— allowed run in first inning: 2-4
— record in first 5 innings: 3-1
— He hasn’t pitched against the Mets.

— Dodgers are 5-7 in their last dozen games.
— Dodgers are 8-5 at home.
— over 8-4-1 at home
— scored run in first inning: 10-21
— record in first 5 innings: 12-9
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-4-4

Arizona (9-11) @ San Francisco (9-11)
— Montgomery is making his first start for Arizona.
— LY, he was 10-11, 3.20 in 23 starts for St Louis/Texas.
— In his career, he is 38-34, 3.68 in 140 starts.
— He is 0-1, 2.19 in two starts vs San Francisco.

— Arizona is 1-3 in its last four games.
— Diamondbacks are 2-5 on the road.
— under 8-3 last eleven games
— scored run in first inning: 11-20
— record in first 5 innings: 10-5-5
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5.2-2-6

— Snell is 0-2, 12.86 in his two starts.
— San Francisco is 0-2 in his starts.
— over 2-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-2
— record in first 5 innings: 0-2
— He is 5-1, 1.11 in eight starts vs Arizona.

— Giants are 5-3 in their last eight games.
— They’re 4-3 at home.
— under 9-4 last thirteen games
— scored run in first inning: 5-20
— record in first 5 innings: 5-12-3
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-3-2

Tampa Bay (11-9) @ Bronx (13-6)
— bullpen game

— Tampa Bay is 8-5 in its last 13 games.
— Rays are 4-2 on road.
— over 5-1 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 7-20
— record in first 5 innings: 10-7-3
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 7-3.1-3

— Schmidt is 1-0, 4.40 in three starts.
— New York is 3-0 in his starts.
— under 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-3
— record in first 5 innings: 3-0
— He is 1-3, 4.24 in 8 games (4 starts) vs Toronto.

— New York lost three of last four games, after a 12-3 start.
— They’re 4-2 at home.
— over 4-1 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 2-19
— record in first 5 innings: 8-8-3
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-3.2-x

Oakland (8-11) @ Cleveland (13-6)
— Boyle is 1-1, 0.90 in last two starts.
— Oakland is 1-2 in his starts.
— over 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Cleveland.

— A’s lost three of their last five games.
— Oakland is 4-2 on road.
— under 8-3 last eleven games
— scored run in first inning: 4-19
— record in first 5 innings: 8-11
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-3.1-x

— McKenzie is 1-2, 7.62 in his three starts.
— Guardians are 1-2 in his starts.
— over 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2
— He is 1-0, 1.96 in three starts vs Oakland.

— Cleveland is 10-4 in its last 14 games.
— Guardians are 3-3 at home.
— over 6-3 last nine games
— scored run in first inning: 3-19
— record in first 5 innings: 10-6-3
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-3-3.1

Baltimore (12-6) @ Kansas City (12-7)
— Kremer is 0-1, 6.61 in three starts.
— Baltimore is 1-2 in his starts.
— over 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-1-1
— He is 1-0, 3.48 in two starts vs Kansas City

— Baltimore is 7-2 in its last nine games.
— Orioles are 4-2 on road.
— over 7-1 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 6-18
— record in first 5 innings: 8-8-2
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-3.1-x

— Marsh is 2-0, 4.32 in his three starts.
— Kansas City is 3-0 in his starts.
— under 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 2-1
— He gave up a run in 7 IP, in his one start vs Baltimore.

— Royals won 10 of their last 13 games.
— They won their last eight home games.
— under 9-2 last 11 games
— scored run in first inning: 6-19
— record in first 5 innings: 9-5-5
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-6-x

Detroit (10-9) @ Minnesota (6-11)
— Flaherty is 0-1, 4.91 in his first three starts.
— Detroit is 2-1 in his starts.
— under 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2
— He is 0-0, 3.00 in two starts vs Minnesota.

— Detroit is 2-5 in its last seven games.
— Tigers are 6-2 on road.
— under 4-2 last six games
— scored run in first inning: 5-19
— record in first 5 innings: 5-10-4
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-2.2-6.1

— Ryan is 0-1, 3.63 in three starts.
— Minnesota is 2-1 in his starts.
— under 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 0-1-2
— He is 0-1, 4.50 in three starts vs Baltimore.

— Twins are 3-9 in their last dozen games.
— They’re 1-4 at home.
— under 4-1 at home.
— scored run in first inning: 4-17
— record in first 5 innings: 5-10-2
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.2-2-x

LA Angels (9-10) @ Cincinnati (9-9)
— Anderson is 2-1, 1.47 in his three starts.
— Angels are 2-1 in his starts.
— under 3-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 2-1
— He is 2-1, 3.31 in four starts vs Cincinnati.

— Angels are 5-8 in their last 13 games.
— They’re 7-6 on road.
— over 3-1 last four games
— scored run in first inning: 6-19
— record in first 5 innings: 7-12
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 7.2-3.2-2.2

— Lodolo threw 5.2 shutout IP in his first ‘24 start.
— Cincinnati is 1-0 in his starts.
— under 1-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-1
— record in first 5 innings: 1-0
— He hasn’t pitched against the Angels.

— Reds lost their last three games.
— They’re 4-5 at home.
— over 6-2-1 at home.
— scored run in first inning: 2-18
— record in first 5 innings: 8-8-2
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 6-3.1-2

Boston (10-10) @ Pittsburgh (11-8)
— Bello is 2-1, 4.57 in four starts.
— Boston is 3-1 in his starts.
— over 2-2
— allowed run in first inning: 1-4
— record in first 5 innings: 2-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Pittsburgh

— Boston is 4-8 in its last dozen games.
— Red Sox are 7-3 on road.
— under 5-2 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 6-20
— record in first 5 innings: 11-5-4
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 6-x-7

— Pittsburgh hasn’t named a starter.

— Pirates are 2-6 in their last eight games.
— They’re 3-2 at home.
— under 5-3 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 3-19
— record in first 5 innings: 10-8-1
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-3-x

White Sox (3-15) @ Philadelphia (11-8)
— Crochet is 1-2, 3.57 in his four starts.
— Chicago is 1-3 in his starts.
— under 4-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-4
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Philadelphia.

— White Sox lost 15 of first 18 games.
— Chicago is 1-6 on road.
— under 4-1 last five games
— scored run in first inning: 4-18
— record in first 5 innings: 5-9-4
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-7.1-x

— Turnbull is 1-0, 2.40 in three starts.
— Philly is 3-0 in his starts.
— under 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 2-1
— He is 0-3, 6.52 in five starts vs Chicago.

— Phillies are 6-2 in their last eight games.
— Phillies are 8-5 at home.
— under 12-2 last 14 games
— scored run in first inning: 8-19
— record in first 5 innings: 10-7-2
— bullpen IP last 3 days: x-3-x

Houston (6-14) @ Washington (8-10)
— Verlander is making his first 2024 start.
— Last year, he was 13-8, 3.22 in 27 starts.
— In his HOF career, he is 257-141, 3.24 in 509 starts.
— He is 4-0, 1.85 in four starts vs Washington.

— Houston lost 14 of its first 20 games.
— Astros are 2-5 on road.
— over 5-3 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 9-20
— record in first 5 innings: 10-7-3
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 5-3-5

— Gore is 2-0, 2.81 in three starts.
— Washington is 2-1 in his starts.
— under 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 0-3
— record in first 5 innings: 2-1
— He threw 5.2 scoreless IP, in his one start vs Houston.

— Nationals are 3-4 in their last seven games.
— They’re 2-4 at home.
— under 9-3 last dozen games
— scored run in first inning: 3-18
— record in first 5 innings: 8-9-1
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 4-1.2-3

Texas (11-9) @ Atlanta (12-5)
— Heaney is 0-2, 8.25 in three starts.
— Texas is 0-3 in his starts.
— over 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 0-2-1
— He gave up 2 runs in 4 IP, in his one start vs Atlanta

— Rangers are 3-1 in their last four games.
— They’re 6-4 on road.
— over 5-2 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 8-20
— record in first 5 innings: 8-5-7
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-4-5.1

— Sale is 1-1, 4.58 in three starts.
— Atlanta is 1-2 in his starts.
— under 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 2-3
— record in first 5 innings: 2-1
— He is 8-2, 2.43 in 12 starts vs Texas.

— Braves are 9-3 in their last dozen games.
— They’re 4-2 at home.
— over 10-6-1
— scored run in first inning: 5-17
— record in first 5 innings: 9-6-2
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-5-x

Seattle (9-10) @ Colorado (4-15)
— Hancock is 1-2, 7.98 in his three starts.
— Seattle is 1-2 in his starts.
— over 2-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 1-2
— He hasn’t pitched against Colorado.

— Seattle won its last three games.
— Mariners are 2-4 on road.
— under 14-4 last 18 games
— scored run in first inning: 3-19
— record in first 5 innings: 5-10-4
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.1-3-x

— Hudson is 0-3, 5.71 in three starts.
— Colorado is 0-3 in his starts, scoring 5 runs.
— under 3-0
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 0-2-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Seattle.

— Rockies are 4-15 in their first 19 games.
— Last four games, Colorado scored seven runs.
— They’re 2-4 at home.
— under 6-2 last eight games
— scored run in first inning: 5-19
— record in first 5 innings: 4-12-3
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 2.2-2.2-x

Toronto (10-9) @ San Diego (11-10)
— Rodriguez allowed a run in 3.2 IP (68 PT) in his first MLB start.
— Toronto is 1-0 in his starts.
— under 1-0
— allowed run in first inning: 0-1
— record in first 5 innings: 1-0
— He hasn’t pitched against San Diego.

— Toronto is 4-1 in its last five games.
— Blue Jays are 4-6 on road.
— over 6-4 on road
— scored run in first inning: 6-19
— record in first 5 innings: 8-8-3
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-4-x

— Waldron is 0-1, 3.77 in three starts.
— San Diego is 0-3 in his starts.
— under 2-0-1
— allowed run in first inning: 1-3
— record in first 5 innings: 0-2-1
— He hasn’t pitched against Milwaukee.

— Padres are 6-3 in their last nine games.
— They’re 5-6 at home.
— over 5-2 last seven games
— scored run in first inning: 8-21
— record in first 5 innings: 11-8-2
— bullpen IP last 3 days: 3-0.1-x

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks last season, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable R.O.I. of 2.7%, a slight improvement on the overall record of the “easiest way system.” For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak were 13-13 for -5.2 units after a rough 1-5 last week.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-142 at KC), PHILADELPHIA (-198 vs CWS), ATLANTA (-205 vs TEX), SEATTLE (-135 at COL)

Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks went 119-79 for +22.2 units in the 2023 regular season. The R.O.I. for the season closed at 11.2%. For 2024, these teams are 11-8 for +0.19 units, a slower start but nothing to suggest a shift is in order.
System Matches: PLAY HOUSTON (-170 at WSH), PLAY PITTSBURGH (-115 vs. BOS)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1322-1717 (43.5%) for -164.75 units and an R.O.I. of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX, MIAMI, MILWAUKEE, ARIZONA, TAMPA BAY, LA ANGELS

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 2948-2584 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -394.72 units and R.O.I. of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, NY YANKEES, ATLANTA, COLORADO, CHICAGO CUBS, CLEVELAND, SAN FRANCISCO