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geg1951
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 14866

368033167
SOC Belgium +120

Parlay .....50 tw 156

Belgium +114
France -108

glta

WC 40-47-5 ...+467




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
---------------------------------------------------

Old Post 07-14-18 02:38 PM
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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Since 1990:

4/7 (57%) teams that had less rest went on to lift trophy.
3/3 (100%) finals that were settled in 90 mins were won by team with less rest.
3/4 (75%) finals that went beyond 90 mins were won by team with extra rest

Old Post 07-14-18 09:36 PM
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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

This match is going to play out much different than many people expect. This will be the first match for both teams where they do not have to work hard to get into the playing style they are comfortable with. In fact, they will not have to work at all.

Croatia is most comfortable and confident when they can control the ball in midfield, be patient and rely on their technicality to create opportunity.

France is most comfortable playing without the ball, creating turnovers and using their speed and skill in transition to create scoring opportunities at the other end.

Due to the lack of relevant data on these teams, many people are hell-bent on using the previous matches this World Cup to predict the next one. I have mentioned it many times. The market always prices these factors in because everyone else sees it too.

There is such a blatantly obvious handicap in the talent of France being too much for a Croatia team that has played a full 90 minutes more, but go beyond that and the tactical advantages on either side cancel each other out.
Croatia and England will be a chess match where the most patient side will win. As the match went on Croatia got stronger. They imposed their playing style and waited for opportunities to arise. In a match like this final where the draw result is dependent more so on Croatia than France, I like the fact that playing level or from behind, Croatia is going to get the bulk of possession and control in midfield – something they need to succeed.

France, much like England, is a team that has relied on the success of individual moments from set pieces. The adversity a match ago where England had to play a style they were not comfortable with was enough to throw them off.

anticipate Croatia bringing in an extra defensive holding midfielder to protect against transition attacks. The French defence will look sloppy, but they will do enough to keep Croatia from pushing too high. Turnover opportunities created by France will result in a fair number of breaks on the counter, but the discipline in midfield of Croatia will break up the bulk of opportunities and prevent any odd man chances.

By playing their most preferred style, both teams naturally cancel each others strength. I expect this match to be tied heading into the 70th minute at which point both teams pull back and play for extra time.

France will believe they can wear Croatia down and have a big advantage in penalties. Croatia will be confident they can jump on the weak back line the second France over commits. Both will be hesitant to give an inch because it is most beneficial to wait for the other to break down first.

Old Post 07-14-18 11:48 PM
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geg1951
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 14866

368033167
SOC Belgium +120 ...................win

Parlay .....50 tw 156 ..............pending

Belgium +114 ...W
France -108



WC 41-47-5 ...+587




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
---------------------------------------------------

Old Post 07-15-18 04:49 AM
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HoustonFan
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Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 6159

World Cup Final

The worlds greatest sporting event comes to a close tomorrow. I have both France and Croatia to win in futures, so I am a winner either way. Even though I would rather see Croatia win, I will hedge with France.

France to win Cup. -210 to win 2 units
France ML -111

Beer money
France 2-0 +650

It has been a great month. Not as profitable as I wanted but still great!




"Just Got Paid" -- ZZ Top
2008,2009 NCAA HOF Battle of the Brackets Champion

Old Post 07-15-18 05:33 AM
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ballinhj12
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Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 2525

I concur! I know very little about the beautiful game, but always really enjoy the World Cup! I'm on under 2.5 and Croatia +1. BOL

Old Post 07-15-18 07:18 AM
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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

France are the immovable object and Croatia are, well, a more or less resistible force. The story of France’s tournament, and even more broadly their last two years of international play starting with a trip to the finals of Euro 2016, is that despite an abundance of attacking talent, the team is built to defend.

It is the nature of defense that it gets overshadowed by attack, and the nature of defenders that they do the dirty work while the goalscorers grab the headlines. In France’s case that means that the best defensive midfielder on the planet, N’Golo Kante, has quietly become the team’s center point. Rather than leverage Kante, play an open team around him and depend on the indefatigable little ball winner to provide most of the defensive work, France have instead chosen to reinforce him.

Paul Pogba plays next to him and isn’t given license to roam forward. Blaise Matuidi plays ahead of the pair, mainly for his defensive contributions, and the conservative fullback pairing of Lucas Hernandez and Benjamin Pavard are preferred to more expansive alternatives. The result is a team that’s conceded four goals in the entire tournament, one in the opening match where they played a more expansive lineup and three in an unlikely Round of 16 clash with Argentina.

Croatia’s plan to beat France will likely be the same as their plan to beat everybody else: have their extremely talented midfield get the ball out wide where the team’s wingers, supported by overlapping fullbacks, can create for themselves or for forward Mario Mandzukic. Against England, Croatia’s most common pass combinations were Luka Modric on the right side of the center midfield to right back Sime Vrsaljko and left-sided center midfielder Ivan Rakitic to left back Ivan Strinic. Eventually this strategy paid off against England when Vrsaljko played a hopeful cross from the right and Ivan Perisic cut in from the left and literally hurdled defender Kyle Walker to score.

Croatia are very good at playing this way, but it’s also a style that creates inefficient chances. Headed balls in crowded penalty areas from long crosses are not great scoring opportunities. Croatia haven’t been forced to pay for that deficiency because they have faced a series of opponents who did not have the capability of mounting their own attacks. England, and before them Russia and Denmark, were simply poor attacking teams. Croatia’s inefficient attack was itself more than those squads could muster.

France’s defense is better than any that Croatia has faced this tournament. Their attack is as well. If Croatia stage an upset, they will have to do it by surprising on both sides of the ball, which is hard to imagine

Old Post 07-15-18 01:52 PM
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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
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On Sunday morning, France will take on Croatia for the right to lift the 2018 World Cup trophy. It would be the second victory for France — who won in 1998 — and the first for Croatia.

France are sizable favorites to win at -218 odds, while Croatia are +188. Entering the tournament, France were +700 and Croatia +3500.

Here’s a look at the offshore betting market and how the public has bet each team throughout the tournament.

Moneyline
France -106, Croatia +405, Draw +226

France are the odds-on favorites (-106) to win in regulation and are appropriately getting 54% of moneyline bets. That public support nearly aligns with their implied win probability of 51.5%.

Croatia’s status as big underdogs has attracted 35% of tickets around the market. However, their odds have drifted from +387 to +405 since opening at Pinnacle, the sharpest offshore sportsbook for soccer bettors.

ust 11% of bettors believe that the match will end in a draw, which would be the fourth straight extra-time match for Croatia. Although the public isn’t betting it, the sharps are, as the draw has moved from +233 to +226 since opening.

Total
2 (u-116)

Public bettors have clearly made up their mind in this match with more than 80% of tickets coming in on the over. Despite the heavy support, we’ve seen only a small adjustment on the juice (+109 to +106).

Even with an already low total of 2 goals, oddsmakers know that sharper money will be placed on the under. As games gain importance, teams play more tightly and more defensively. France have been a perfect example of that, aside from their anomaly against Argentina.

France have received the majority of betting tickets in six of seven matches and cashed wins in all but one. They’ve also trailed in only one match all tournament (vs. Argentina).

Against Croatia, they’re getting more than half of moneyline bets to win in regulation. They have yet to play in extra time or a penalty shootout.

Croatia have drawn three straight matches in regulation, which sportsbooks have appreciated. Just 11% of bettors believe the final against France will be their fourth straight.

At +405 to win in regulation, this is easily the biggest underdog that Croatia have been all tournament. They won as +285 dogs over Argentina in the group stage and drew against England as +266 dogs in the semifinal.

Old Post 07-15-18 02:00 PM
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geg1951
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 14866

last one .............

368149076
SOC Croatia v France Over 2 +109

Parlay .....50 tw 156 ..............pending

Belgium +114 ...W
France -108

glta

WC 41-47-5 ...+587




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
---------------------------------------------------

Old Post 07-15-18 02:22 PM
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msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Lots of line movement toward CRO and the draw in the last couple hours.

CRO from +370 to +320
Draw from +230 to +215

FRA has moved from -103 to +115.

Old Post 07-15-18 04:23 PM
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msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

51% of moneyline bets on FRA +115
37% of moneyline bets on CRO +320
12% on DRAW +215

Old Post 07-15-18 04:44 PM
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HoustonFan
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Jan 2006
Posts: 6159

World Cup Final

France to win Cup. -210 to win 2 units...WW
France ML -111..W

Also picked up a future at +650

Final
34-33.5-4.5
+1.44

It was a fun month for soccer fans.




"Just Got Paid" -- ZZ Top
2008,2009 NCAA HOF Battle of the Brackets Champion

Old Post 07-15-18 07:09 PM
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geg1951
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 14866

great ending !! $$$

368149076
SOC Croatia v France Over 2 +109 ......win

Parlay .....50 tw 156 .............win
Belgium +114 ...W
France -108 ....W

WC 43-47-5 ...+852

thanks to all that have helped me with soccer wagers 101 !!!!!!!!!!!!




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
---------------------------------------------------

Old Post 07-15-18 08:30 PM
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