The Pittsburgh Steelers solidified their spot atop the AFC seedings race for the moment with a big Thursday Night win over the Tennessee Titans. Pittsburgh entered the week tied with New England for the best conference record, and will get the Patriots at home in a few weeks. Let’s see how Sharps have been betting the rest of this weekend’s NFL ticket.

Detroit at Chicago:
Nothing happening on the team side, as Detroit is still a solid -3 everywhere as a road favorite. Sharps would fade any move off the key number. Tougher to like the Bears here after they played so poorly vs. Green Bay last Sunday, a team Detroit dominated the prior Monday, so I would expect this line to stay solid through the weekend. The opening total of 44 was promptly bet down to 41. There might be some weather issues, but in retrospect that’s way too high an opener for these two teams offensive styles, so quants pounded the Under even before considering the weather.

Kansas City at the NY Giants:
A tall opener of Kansas City -12.5 or 13 in some spots has been bet down to -10.5. Some syndicates just keep betting the Giants despite their recent collapse. They’ve been regretting that approach since cashing vs. Denver. Kansas City peaked in September, but is coming of the bye, a spot where Andy Reid coached teams have traditionally performed well, and still has the horses to win big if the Giants once again no-show the game. Let’s see what the public does Sunday morning. Sharps like the G-men at +10.5 or better. Big move on the over, which is up from 44 to 46, as neither team is playing well defensively.

Tampa Bay at Miami:
An opener of Miami -1.5 is down to pick-em after the Dolphins played so poorly at Carolina this past Monday night. This would have been a bye week for both teams but they had their byes moved to Week One because of the hurricane hitting Florida back in September. This will be one of the least bet games of the day because both teams are bad and only Floridians care about it. Jameis Winston will miss his second straight game for the Bucs, while Mike Evans returns from his one game suspension.

Baltimore at Green Bay:
We’ve been sitting at either Baltimore -2 or -2.5 all week. Green Bay played well enough last week to earn some respect as a home underdog so we’re probably not going to get to the three here. Sharps will be playing the Packers in two-team teasers at +8 or +8.5 if the line doesn’t drop any further. The public isn’t confident with either offense so probably only fans of the two teams will be actively involved. Best expectation is for a relatively quiet handle with a lot of teaser interest in the Packers and a few Sharps taking the small road favorite.

LA Rams at Minnesota:
Another game that’s been hanging around -2 or -2.5 all week, this time for the home team. That tells you the Rams will be popular in teasers at +8 or +8.5. It also lets you know that Sharps think Los Angeles is the better team on a neutral field, as this line wasn’t even driven to the key number of three, which is standard home field value. It's either a real indictment of the Vikings that they’re not getting Sharp support at this price on a strong home field, or respect for the explosive Rams as an underdog. Remember that come playoff time. This game has playoff implications too, with two division leaders jockeying for position.

Arizona at Houston:
Another low interest game. There are so many bad teams right now that a few are going to run into each other on the schedule every week. The opener of pick-em is up to Houston -1.5, partly influenced by the news that journeyman Blaine Gabbert will start for Arizona. A line of +1.5 or +2 would put the Cardinals in the teaser window because that six-point move would cross both the 3 and the 7, but Sharps may be less likely to invest heavily in a bad team forced to start its third-string quarterback.

Jacksonville at Cleveland:
An opener of Jacksonville -9 is down to -7.5 or -8. Oddsmakers were hoping to stay out of the teaser window, but Sharps bet the dog hard enough to bring that into play. The Jaguars will be popular at -1.5 or -2 in two-team teasers. Tough to lay more than a TD on the road with Blake Bortles, even against the hapless Browns, who did show some signs of life against Detroit last week. Some old school Wise Guys like taking ugly dogs at prices this high. That mindset is on both the Giants and the Browns this week. A low opener of 38 has been bet down to 37, with two good defenses facing subpar offenses

Washington at New Orleans:
It’s going to be a busy week for teaser players! New Orleans opened at -8, and has come down to -7.5. That’s going to put the Saints in play at -1.5 or -2 unless we get down to the key number of seven. But, if THAT happens, the public would hit the red-hot Saints pretty hard. New Orleans is in great form while Washington’s defense has been fading against a tough travel schedule and quality opponents. Accordingly, the total has been bet up from 49 to 51.

Buffalo at the LA Chargers:
Turns out the market only sees about a one and a half point difference between Tyrod Taylor and Nathan Peterman. Buffalo made a surprise announcement this week that Taylor was being benched. A line of LAC -3.5 is now up to -4.5 or -5 depending on the store. An interesting game to handicap because Phillip Rivers will be playing hurt for the Chargers, and he’s not really trustworthy as a favorite in any case. Can you trust Peterman to hang within the five? This might be a game where public and Sharp sentiment doesn’t really show itself until Sunday betting. An opener of 44 is down to 41 on the QB news from both teams.

Cincinnati at Denver:
Nothing happening yet with a line of Denver -2.5. Another ugly game, another game in the teaser window. Brutal schedule spot for the Bengals, who have to play their 3rd straight on the road…and this one’s at altitude. Do you want a team like THAT getting +8.5 in teasers? Many Sharps will take that shot because Denver has been playing so poorly. The Bengals would get hit at +3 if squares take the line up to the key number. It's telling that the Wise Guys DIDN’T bet Denver below the key number even with that situational advantage over the exhausted traveler, but Denver has lost its last 5 games by at least 10 points and still somehow finds itself favored here. The opener of 40 is now down to 38.5.

New England vs. Oakland (in Mexico City):
New England has been hit VERY hard in this game, with the line opening at -5 but rising up to the key number of -7 and even -7.5 in some places, which is very surprising for a neutral field game. That tells you Sharps have really soured on Oakland, and don’t see the Raiders defense has having much of a chance to slow down Tom Brady. It might take +8 or better to bring Oakland money into the marketplace. The Over/Under has also rocketed from 50 to 55, which is also an indictment of the Raiders defense. Quants POUNDED the Over, expecting these already terrible defenses to wear down at altitude in Mexico City.

Philadelphia at Dallas:
Sharps have really soured on Dallas. Philadelphia, rested off a bye, opened at -3.5 (above the key number away from home against a divisional rival), and were still bet up to -4.5!! Still no significant Dallas money at the window, so this line could go even higher by gameday. The Cowboys looked awful without Ezekiel Elliott and their left tackle Tyrion Smith in the second half against Atlanta, and now arguably their best defensive player Sean Lee is also out for this game And, there is some off-the-field turmoil that could be causing a distraction. This market price is suggesting Philadelphia would be -7.5 (or better) over Dallas on a neutral field, and -10.5 at home. Wow!

Atlanta at Seattle:
Could be a great Monday night thriller to close out the week. Sportsbooks have been solid on Seattle -3 all week. Sharps would fade any move off the key number, and will very likely take the live dog if the line stays pat. Tough to see the line coming down because the Seahawks have such a strong home field, but Atlanta’s definitely a team that can at least hang around the whole way, if not win outright. Should be a very heavily bet game…particularly if the weekend doesn’t offer many thrills. The public is dying to have a big football game to get invested in. Sportsbooks, who took a beating last week, would love to have them.
That's all for this week folks, good luck and a Happy Thanksgiving to all in the Den!!!

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