BetShare
TOT/EVE

Spread
TOT (-1.5) 47%
EVE (+1.5) 53%

ML
Tottenham 33%
Everton 25%
Draw 42%

Tot (3)
Ov 48%
Un 52%

Real Madrid lost again this morning as -525 favorites, now 16 points behind Barcelona in La Liga table.

Villarreal were +1230 on the moneyline.

Unfortunately my parlay lost

Manchester City are still without a loss in the Premier League this season on their way to 20 wins and 2 draws, and they bounced back nicely last game to beat Watford 3-1 after a minor blip with Crystal Palace in Week 21 (0-0 draw). However, Sunday’s match at Liverpool appears to be one of their toughest of the year, and they find themselves at plus-money odds for just the third time all season. Line movement and public betting percentages in this match have set up nicely for one of the value plays this weekend

Back on October 28th, BetOnline released odds of +1000 on whether Manchester City would go the entire Premier League season without a loss. More than two months later, Man City still haven’t lost a game and are now listed at +400 to finish the season unbeaten. Like most of these props, +400 is not a good price and not offering any sort of value since they have 16 matches left including: at Liverpool, at Arsenal, vs Chelsea, vs. Man United, and at Tottenham. And I especially hate the price since I think this is the weekend that they finally go down.

When odds opened for Sunday’s match against Liverpool, Pinnacle listed Manchester City at +120 odds to win. However, in the past week those odds have slowly increased up to Manchester City +133 despite getting the majority of moneyline tickets (nearly 60%). To no surprise, public bettors have gravitated toward the road dogs at plus-money to keep on rolling, but I’m all about fading the trendy dogs. Liverpool is also catching Man City at a great time in the schedule– City just played an EFL Cup semifinal match on Tuesday while Liverpool have been resting for over a week. Of course the departure of star midfielder Philippe Coutinho to Barcelona hurts, but Liverpool recently made a big-money acquisition in Virgil van Dijk to shore up their defense, which was obviously a bigger issue than midfield. He may not start depending on the plan from manager Jurgen Klopp, but Liverpool should still be in good position for an upset. Make sure you shop around the market to get the best odds possible, but I like Liverpool at +222 odds to snap Man City’s unbeaten streak.

Biggest Line Moves Since Opening
Bournemouth (+530 to +360) vs. Arsenal
Burnley (+385 to +340) at Crystal Palace
Leicester City (+1155 to +1085) at Chelsea

Bournemouth were able to claw their way back out of the relegation zone in their last three holiday fixtures with a win and two draws. Despite their good results at the end of the period, the Bournemouth defense showed a lot of problems, conceding 14 goals in their last five matches. Only one point out of the relegation zone, if the Cherries cannot patch up their defense they could very well see themselves relegated at the end of the season.

Arsenal had a disastrous holiday period, with only one win in their four-holiday matches. While they were a bit unlucky with a poor penalty decision causing them to drop points against West Bromwich Albion, their performances were poor throughout the period, specifically defensively. They conceded eight goals in their four matches, including two against Crystal Palace and three at home to Liverpool.

TEAM NEWS
Bournemouth will be without big summer signing Jermain Defoe through a broken ankle and Tyrone Mings with a back injury, according to Physioroom.com. Josh King and Junior Stanislas will both undergo late fitness tests before the match to determine.

Some of Arsenal’s struggles during the festive period could be attributed to the fact that they’re going through another injury crisis. They’ll be without Laurent Koscielny, Nacho Monreal, Olivier Giroud, and Santi Cazorla, while Aaron Ramsey, Mesut Ozil, Jack Wilshere, and Sead Kolasinac will all undergo late fitness tests, according to Physioroom.com.
PREDICTION
Arsenal’s season went downhill last year after their 3-3 draw last season at around the same time in the season. Their season is already kind of on the downhill and a negative result here could see Arsenal give up on the season and start selling some of their players that lack contract security. That said, they should be able to outscore Bournemouth, despite the Gunners shaky defence.

PREDICTION: 3-2 ARSENAL

Manchester City face one of their most difficult tests of the season so far as they travel to Anfield to face Liverpool. There has been a lot of talk about the club going through the season unbeaten and becoming only the second team to do so during the Premier League era. Pep Guardiola won’t be focused on that record at this stage, but it will be at the centre of discussions for the media at the game. Both sides have excellent attacks, which should make for a great watch for the neutral.

The home side will be looking to pick up a positive result as they try to move on from the Philippe Coutinho sale. The Brazilian international has finally joined Barcelona and it will be interesting to see how Jurgen Klopp lines-up this weekend. Adam Lallana is the favourite to take the advanced midfield role and there will be a lot of pressure on him to perform if he does start on Sunday. The addition of Virgil van Dijk to their Premier League squad will make them stronger at the back and he will get another opportunity to impress against the league leaders.

Guardiola has mastered the Premier League and is now looking by far and beyond the best manager in the division. He had received criticism during his first season, but he needed time to adapt and build his team. City’s form this season has been remarkable and if his team can maintain their consistency, they could soon start to match his Barcelona side in terms of achievement. The Alexis Sanchez saga continues to rumble on in the background, but local rivals Manchester United have taken the ascendency in the race to sign the Chilean. Although City don’t have a huge need to sign the Arsenal forward, it would be a blow if they were to miss out on him.

INTERESTING STATS
Liverpool have scored 50 Premier League goals at an average of more than two per game. The only team have scored more are Manchester City

Manchester City have shown their fight in their last two matches as they have come from behind the beat Burnley and Bristol City. This has helped put them in a strong position in the cup competitions.

TEAM NEWS
Mohamed Salah is expected to be fit to start on Saturday, despite a recent knock. Daniel Sturridge faces a battle to be passed fit, although he is unlikely to feature regardless of his availability. Alberto Moreno, Jordan Henderson and Nathaniel Clyne remain on the treatment table.

Vincent Kompany could be back to feature for the visitors, but Pep Guardiola may be hesitant to throw him back into the squad for such a big game. Meanwhile, Gabriel Jesus, Benjamin Mendy and Phil Foden are certainties to miss out on the trip to Anfield.

VERDICT
This has the potential to be match of the season and it will certainly be the pick of the matches this weekend. Both teams like to play offensive football and that should mean chances are created at both ends. It is difficult to see Manchester City losing this season as they have looked so formidable up to this point. In recent weeks, they have been less dominant, but they continue to win matches and that does create a sense of invincibility. Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola have had some great battles in the past. This will be a fixture that City are wary of. It could end in any result, but an entertaining score draw seems most likely.

LIVERPOOL 2-2 MANCHESTER CITY

unusual movement on Arsenal

Arsenal opened -181 last week. Line is down to -110 this morning despite more than 70% of bets on the Gunners.

So Alexis Sanchez is not in the Arsenal squad to face Bournemouth this afternoon. Mmmh While I recognise his talent and value to any team; Arsenal needs to move past this saga and refocus on football.

BetShare
BOU/ARS

Spread
BOU (+0.5) 55%
ARS (-0.5) 45%

ML
Bournemouth 27%
Arsenal 38%
Draw 35%

Tot (3)
Ov 49%
Un 51%

parlay ... .5 tw 5.99

Bournemouth DRAW +270
Liverpool FC DRAW +251

glta

Arsenal now +105. Draw is probably the bet here but laying off for now.

Manchester City ML
Barcelona ML
Pumas ML

Risk 1 to 5.475

this Dortmund/Wolfsburg total just took an interesting turn toward the over

you couldn't ask for a better way to start a Sunday Morning ! WOW might as well try a PSG under later this afternoon
GL

Parlay is a loser with the stunning upcoming result of Liverpool Man City

On Monday Night, Jose Mourinho’s Manchester United will host a struggling and manager-less Stoke City side at Old Trafford – with 3 points on the line.

Football had taken a back seat at Man United – with all the noise around the apparent pursuit of Alexis Sanchez, a player who Jose Mourinho described as “phenomenal” in his pre-match press conference. The Red Devils, fresh from their break in Dubai will be expected come out with a rejuvenated display on Monday and secure a win that will finally put some daylight between themselves and defending Champions Chelsea – who could only manage a draw on Saturday night.

With the Premier League title almost out of reach, United must ensure they lead the chasing pack – which is all they could do at this moment in time. They sit second in the league with 47 points from 22 games.

Stoke City parted ways with Mark Hughes after four-and-a-half years after the club’s dismal run last year – which has them placed in one of the three relegation positions, making his position untenable.

But Kevin Russell, Stoke’s Under-18s coach, who will be overseeing the senior team alongside Eddie Niedzwiecki until they bring in a suitable replacement – is optimistic about his team’s chances of getting out of the quagmire at the bottom as soon as possible – for only 10 points separate the 10th and 20th placed teams in the league. He said,

“It’s far from a crisis if you look at the table. We have some good home games coming up and this is a tough place to come. If we can get a couple of results soon we can shoot up the table.”

With no wins in the last four, Old Trafford on a Monday night certainly looks a daunting proposition to get something out of – but one that the side will relish, after losing their manager.

TEAM NEWS
Manchester United will be without Ashley Young, who serves the last match of his suspension, while Antonio Valencia and Michael Carrick are doubtful for this weekend as they continue to recover from injury.

Zlatan Ibrahimovic is expected to return to training in late January/early February. Eric Bailly remains sidelined but could return at a similar time.

Stoke City’s Erik Pieters (thigh) and Bruno Martins Indi (groin) are back in training, though caretaker assistant first-team coach Kevin Russell does not know if the defenders will be fit for Monday.

INTERESTING NUMBERS
Manchester United have won 25 of a possible 27 points in Premier League home matches against Stoke City, with the only points dropped coming in this exact fixture last season (1-1).

Stoke City are winless in their last 17 trips to Manchester United in all competitions (D2 L15), since a 1-0 win in April 1976.

The Potters have never lost a Premier League away match on a Monday (W3 D5). Man Utd have lost only one of their 29 PL home matches on a Monday (W21 D7).

Anthony Martial has been directly involved in three goals in his two home PL appearances against Stoke (2 goals, 1 assist), scoring in both matches.

PREDICTION
Home side to cruise.

Manchester United 2-0 Stoke City

SOC [200121] TOTAL o3-105 (STOKE CITY vrs MANCHESTER UNITED)

YTD
32-19-3 +24.32

thank you for your write ups.. I hit on a 5 unit parlay with liverpool ml and Naworleans +5' with your write-ups.

Whereres your tip jar?

Thanks