it's time to keep rolling folks, let's start with a couple matches today
G:

today

Bayern Munich/Leverkusen O 3

La Liga
Getafe -120

will check back in closer to start

mike , are you seeing bets @ 80% Munich & 10% draw.

I am on this today:

Nimes ML
Getafe ML
Sheffield Wed/Sheffield United O2.5

Risk 1.0 to win 5.4

One strategy that works across sports is buying low on teams off a loss. Casual bettors are influenced by recent events and that tendency is magnified if a team suffers a blowout. One poor performance can cause bettors to fade a club in its next match. These overreactions have created excellent opportunities for contrarian bettors.

In Swansea City’s most recent EPL fixture, Carlos Carvalhal’s club was defeated 2-0 by Tottenham. The Swans were more competitive than the final score indicates with opportunities to equalize in the second half, notably a header from Mike van der Hoorn that hit the post. In the end, it was the soccer club’s 14th defeat in 22 league games. How have teams off a blowout performed in their next match?

Teams coming off a blowout loss (two or more goals) that are big underdogs have gone 21-54 (28.0%) on the moneyline in the next game. These squads are often +300 or greater on the moneyline, so despite the poor win rate they have returned a sizable profit, $100 bettors have made $2,907 in the last six seasons.

On Saturday, Swansea travels to St. James’ Park to take on Newcastle. The Swans are at the bottom of the table (20th out of 20 EPL teams), the Magpies won their previous fixture, 3-1, and will have the support of the home crowd. Even with those advantages, the moneyline is moving in Swansea’s direction. After opening +402, the Swans are now +369 to pull the upset.

Early bet splits for Sunday's marquee EPL match

31% on Liverpool +214
46% on Man City +131
23% on Draw +273

Nimes ML..L
Getafe ML
Sheffield Wed/Sheffield United O2.5

Risk 1.0 to win 5.4...L

Hope this one hits.

Wolverhampton ML
Crystal Palace/Burnley - BTTS

Risk 1 to win 2.1

Manchester City have gone 2-0 as dogs this season, but just 11-29 for -13.43 units the previous five seasons.

just going with Bookmaker trigger moves
early parlay La Liga/Bundesliga

WagerType:PARLAY (2 TEAMS)
Date: Team:
Jan 13 SOC [201878] GIRONA -140
Jan 13 SOC [202514] FC AUGSBURG -120

1 x 2.14

YTD
31-18-3 +23.26

Chelsea will be hoping to return to winning ways as they welcome Leicester City to Stamford Bridge. It will be a difficult test for the home side as they have failed to win in any of their last three matches and they need to start showing a clinical edge in the final third. Although they haven’t been losing matches, they haven’t been winning and that is a concern for a team that wants to challenge for major honours. The visitors have climbed into the top eight since the appointment of Claude Puel and they will be looking to move further up the table before May. This is a great opportunity to prove that they can compete with the top six.

There have been problems at Stamford Bridge this season and that is why Chelsea find themselves a long way off the pace. Last season, they were the ones running away with the title at the top of the division and now, they are competing only for a Champions League place. The competitiveness of the Premier League means it is unrealistic to stay at the top for long, but Antonio Conte will have wanted to put up more of a fight in their title defence. They remain in the three cup competitions and they must be taken seriously by the club if they are to maintain their winning mentality.

Leicester City are at a unique crossroads, as relegation is unlikely, but a push for Europe is most likely beyond them. They will want to finish as the best of the rest in 7th position and they are currently just four points behind Burnley. It was disappointing to see them play a significantly weakened team in the FA Cup and they nearly suffered due to that decision. That competition should be taken seriously as they have a great chance of making it to the latter stages considering the majority of the Premier League have more important things to deal with.

INTERESTING STATS
Chelsea have scored the fewest goals out of the top five clubs in the Premier League. Their attacking play has been a real concern in recent weeks and they will be aiming to improve it sooner rather than later.
Leicester City are the only team outside of the top six with a positive goal difference. It currently stands at +2.

VERDICT
This could be one of the matches of the weekend, as Leicester have played great football under Claude Puel. They will go to Stamford Bridge with a positive attitude and have every chance of leaving with something if they play to their potential. The pace of Mahrez, Demerai Gray and Vardy will be a huge threat. However, Chelsea have been disappointing recently and it seems only a matter of time before they return to winning ways. The home advantage should be enough to give them the points, but it won’t be a routine afternoon for them.

Chelsea 2-1 Leicester City

The battle against the drop
Whilst City have created a gap between them and the chasing pack, at the bottom of the Premier League table things are not so easy to predict.

Crystal Palace finally broke their duck, both in terms of points and goals scored against Chelsea.

Their underlying advanced stats suggested they were a mid to lower half table team, who had been unfortunate to spurn a host of relatively inviting chances.

They more than held their own in expected goals in many of their games, losing five games by a score of 1-0, whilst also losing their two most creative attackers, Benteke and Zaha to injury.

A solid mid-table process from 2016/17 combined with similar levels of performance this term mark them as a side whose potential future results may belie their lowly position, particularly during an easier run of fixtures following their visit to Spurs at Wembley.

The two complete newcomers to Premier League football, Brighton and Huddersfield, are both ahead of the one point per game rate that is the usual cut off point for relegation back to the Championship.

However, both teams have faced a relatively benign opening campaign and their near-identical expected goal differences of around minus 0.5 per game could be inflated by a couple of tenths with a more complete fixture list.

Brighton have also over-performed defensively against their expected totals and nearly half of their attacking expected goals have been generated outside of open play; particularly via the boot of dead ball specialist Pascal Gross.

These tactical methods often tread a fine line between survival and a quick return to the Championship and both teams are likely to feature in the relegation race despite their solid beginnings.

Premier League odds: Is anyone safe?
Such is the narrow talent gap between teams outside the Big Six, few from the rump of the league can feel secure about their fate in 2017/18.

In simulations of the remaining season after week ten only Southampton, Leicester, Newcastle and Watford ultimately finished in one of the relegation positions fewer than ten percent of the time.

Many of the league’s niche tactical quirks can be found in the lower reaches of the table.

Burnley are once again failing to impress many expected goal models, particularly defensively, where their 1.6 xG/game rates are dwarfing their actual concession rate of just 0.9 goals per game.

This is a continuation from 2016/17 and Sean Dyche’s packed defensive lines, along with Burnley’s high volume blocking of opponent’s attempts appears a sustainable variant of a perennial survivor, Tony Pulis.

Pulis’ own West Brom enter their third full season in partnership and appear to have arrived at the stage where set-piece dependent goals coupled with dour defensive setups begins to sour relations between club and manager; with little room for innovative upsides and narrowing survival margins.

EPL Parlay ..... 1 tw 6.6

Southampton v Watford Over 2.5 -114
Huddersfield Town DRAW +206
Chelsea -312

glta

Guess the big line movement on Girona this morning was the smart one-- up 3-0 against relegation-bound Las Palmas

6-0 now at 80'

soccer is opening more eyes to it's potential
GL

SOC [200105] TOTAL o3-108 (LEICESTER CITY vrs CHELSEA)

EPL line movement this morning

Newcastle
Burnley
Huddersfield

what an exciting last 10 minutes, calling the Chelsea total now

WagerType:PARLAY (2 TEAMS)
Date: Team:
Jan 13 SOC [201878] GIRONA -140
Jan 13 SOC [202514] FC AUGSBURG -120

1 x 2.14..............W

SOC [200105] TOTAL o3-108 (LEICESTER CITY vrs CHELSEA)........L

1-1 +1.06

YTD
32-19-3 +24.32