Dr Bob college 3 Star Selection
***CINCINNATI 25 Oregon St. (-3.5) 19
04:45 PM Pacific, 06-Sep-07

Cincinnati coasted to an easy 59-3 win over lowly SE Missouri State last week and that cupcake of a first opponent should serve them well in this game, as I’m sure coach Brian Kelly spent plenty of time the last few weeks preparing for Oregon State rather than SE Missouri State. The Bearcats were a solid team last season, rating at 0.1 yards per play worse than average on offense and 0.5 yards per play better than average defensively and they’ll probably be about the same this season under Kelly. That Bearcats defense should be able to adequately defend an Oregon State attack that proved last week against Utah that they simply can’t throw the football. New quarterbacks Canfield and Moevao were both horrible last week against a sub-par Utah secondary, combining to go 12 for 30 passing for an average of only 3.9 yards per pass play and 2 picks. Oregon State’s top play maker WR Sammy Stroughter missed most of summer camp and did not play last week, but he is expected to play this week. I’m not sure either quarterback can get him the ball if he is open and it’s doubtful that the timing with between Stroughter and the quarterbacks will be right given how much time he’s missed. Running back Yvenson Bernard had a great game against the Utes, running for 165 yards at 5.7 ypr, but Bernard has averaged only 4.4 ypr in each of the last two seasons, so I doubt he’ll keep up that pace. The Beavers’ defense played well last week, allowing only 196 yards at 2.9 yards per play, but Utah was hindered in the second half after star quarterback Brian Johnson separated his shoulder late in the first half. Johnson had thrown for 119 yards on just 13 pass attempts before getting hurt (9.2 ypa), but backup Tommy Grady averaged just 2.5 ypa on his 24 pass attempts, so Oregon State’s defensive numbers are misleading. Oregon State did allow just 130 yards on 31 plays with Johnson in the game (4.2 yppl) which is still very good and the Beavers do have a good defense, but the Bearcats should muster enough offense to win this game given that they apply to a very strong 47-8-1 ATS subset of a 141-62-3 ATS home momentum situation and a 69-19-1 ATS non-conference home underdog situation. Oregon State, meanwhile, applies to a negative 30-80-2 ATS 1st road game situation. My ratings favor Oregon State by just 1 ½ points, so the line is more than fair and I’ll take Cincinnati in a 3-Star Best Bet at +3 points or more and for 2- Stars from +2 ½ points down to +1.

2 Star Selection
**Navy 23 RUTGERS (-16.5) 30
04:00 PM Pacific, 07-Sep-07
Rutgers dominated a pretty good Navy team last season, winning 34-0 as a 2 point do in Annapolis. However, that was the game in which Navy starting quarterback Brian Hampton was injured and inexperienced Kaipo-Noa Kaheaku-Enhada was forced into action running the option against a very good Scarlet Knights defense. Navy was held to negative passing yards after Hampton went out and the option was stopped dead in its tracks. Kaheaku-Enhada rebounded from that game and ended the season in fine fashion, so expect different results this year from the Middies’ offense. Navy ran for 5.8 yards per rushing play at Rutgers in 2005 against a good Scarlet Knights’ defense, so the option can work against Greg Schiano’s defense. Rutgers’ offense should also work well as the Knights’ good all-around attack should move the ball at a good rate against a mediocre Navy stop unit. However, my ratings only favor Rutgers by 14 points and the line on this game has gone up considerably from the opening number of 12 ½ points. The line value is nice, but the reason for the play is an 82-31 ATS game 2 situation and a 49-17-2 ATS game 2 situation that both apply to Navy. I certainly don’t mind going with a Navy squad that is 73-33-1 ATS in regular season games away from home, including 23-9 ATS under coach Johnson and 45-18 ATS as an underdog of more than 7 points. I’ll take Navy in a 2-Star Best Bet at +14 points or more and for 3-Stars at +17 points or more.

2 Star Selection
**Oregon 31 MICHIGAN (-8.0) 30
12:30 PM Pacific, 08-Sep-07
First off, Michigan’s loss to Appalachian State was not nearly the biggest upset ever – not even close. Appalachian State has won the Division 1AA Championship in each of the last two years and they rated at just better than an average Division 1A team last season. I would have made Michigan a 17 ½ point favorite last week and it’s not all that unlikely to have a 17 ½ point favorite lose straight up. I was a little upset about the upset loss since I was looking forward to playing against the overrated Wolverines. I had Michigan rated 19th in my ratings to start the season, so I knew there was going to be some value playing against them early on. The loss last week took away a lot of that value, which is too bad. However, there are still reasons to play against Michigan this week. Oregon, like Appalachian State, has a quick quarterback that can pass and run equally well in Dennis Dixon, and the Ducks have plenty of speed at the skill positions on offense too. That sort of speed gave Michigan trouble last week and it will probably give the Wolverines trouble again this week. However, Michigan’s offense looked as good as I figured it would look last week and they’ll be able to run the ball pretty easily against an Oregon defense that was 0.4 yards per rushing play worse than average last season and allowed 326 rushing yards at 6.8 yprp to Houston last week. That figure is actually not all that horrible given that Houston running back Anthony Alridge, who ran for 205 yards on 22 carries, has now run for 1161 yards on just 117 carries (9.9 ypr!!!) since last season and Houston has averaged 6.5 yprp since game 8 of last season when Alridge was moved from receiver to tailback. In other words, allowing 6.8 yprp to a team that has averaged 6.5 yprp over their last 8 games is not all that bad. Still, Michigan should run for about 6 ypr in this game. The good news for Ducks’ fans is that their pass defense has been 1.3 yards per pass play better than average in each of the last two seasons and should be just as good this year. More good news comes from the fact that Oregon’s offense, which I rate as better than Michigan’s offense, should move the ball well against an inexperienced Michigan defense that was shredded for 5.9 yppl last week. My ratings favor Michigan by 5 points in this game and Oregon applies to a solid 82-31 ATS game 2 non-conference underdog angle. People seem to might think that Michigan is due to bounce back strong after last week’s embarrassing loss (the line has gone up from -7 to -8), but you should think otherwise. Teams that lose their opening game at home as a favorite or in a game in which there was no line (most likely would have been favored in such games since no lined games are generally against Division 1AA teams) are just 20-39 ATS as a favorite in game 2. Also, teams that lose a game in which there was no line (once again, these are mostly against lesser teams) are only 30-62-2 ATS as a favorite or as a dog of 2 points or less the next week, including 8-38 ATS in the first 4 games of the season (1-22 ATS in early season non-conference games). I’ll take Oregon in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more and a Strong Opinion at +5 to +6 ½ points.

2 Star Selection
**South Carolina 27 GEORGIA (-4.0) 24
02:45 PM Pacific, 08-Sep-07
My preseason ratings had South Carolina a few points better than Georgia, but the Bulldogs impressed me with their 35-14 win over a potent Oklahoma State team and it appears their inexperienced defense (just 3 returning starters) is just as good as last year’s strong unit (1.1 yards per play better than average). I had already figured that sophomore quarterback Matthew Stafford would be significantly better than he was as a freshman starter and he was as sharp as expected. Georgia’s rushing attack, however, took a major hit when last year’s leading rusher Kregg Lumpkin was injured after just 3 carries. The Bulldogs struggled to run the ball against a mediocre Oklahoma State run defense, averaging just 3.5 yards per rushing play on 45 runs. South Carolina’s weakness defensively is defending the run, which Georgia may not be able to take advantage of. The Gamecocks are solid defending the pass, but Georgia has an edge through the air and should move the ball pretty well in this game. South Carolina should also move the ball well with quarterback Blake Mitchell back from his one game suspension. Mitchell came back from an ankle injury late last season and it became obvious that he had finally learned the nuances of coach Steve Spurrier’s system. Mitchell averaged 8.3 yards per pass ply on 211 pass plays against a schedule of teams that would combine to allow just 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback. I don’t expect numbers quite that good without Sydney Rice to throw to this season, but Mitchell should be one of the best quarterbacks in the nation. My ratings favor Georgia by just 3 points and the South Carolina applies to a 95-43-1 ATS revenge situation and a solid 49-17-2 ATS game 2 situation. The Gamecocks were in look-ahead mode last week against lowly UL Lafayette, but they’ll bring the ‘A’ game today and I’ll take South Carolina in a 2-Star Best Bet at +4 points or more (a Strong Opinion at +3 ½ or +3).

2 Star Selection
**TULANE 24 Mississippi St. (-6.5) 23
04:00 PM Pacific, 08-Sep-07
Last week’s 0-45 home loss to LSU is not a good omen for Mississippi State this week. I know that Tulane is not LSU, but laying points on the road is a lot to ask of a team that was shutout in their opener and also lost at home as an 11 point favorite to the Green Wave last season. Mississippi State applies to a negative 3-20 ATS subset of a 30- 80-3 ATS game 2 situation while Tulane applies to a 69-19-1 ATS situation. Some people think that having a game under your belt is an advantage, but that just isn’t the case. Mississippi State has no film on Tulane’s new offensive and defensive schemes, while Bob Toledo and company have film to study. Supporting my claim is the fact that teams that lose their opening game are just 49-75-1 ATS in their next game against a team playing their first game of the season, including just 2-15 ATS as a road favorite. My ratings favor Miss State by 6 points, so the line is fair, and the situation is strongly in favor to Tulane. I’ll take Tulane in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more and for 3- Stars at +7 or more (Strong Opinion from +4 to +5 ½ points).

2 Star Selection
**Virginia Tech 17 LSU (-12.5) 20
06:15 PM Pacific, 08-Sep-07
It appears as if the week 1 results have influenced the line way to much in this game, as LSU probably would have been about a 6 or 7 point favorite prior to last week’s games being played. LSU started off the season on Thursday night and destroyed Mississippi State 45-0 on the road while Virginia Tech struggled at home against East Carolina before winning 17-7. LSU’s win was not all that impressive given that their offense only averaged 4.8 yards per play. The Tigers’ defense was certainly great, allowing just 2.6 yppl, but they’re not going to be +7 in turnover margin every week and the +2.2 yppl differential was about what was expected. Virginia Tech only out-gained ECU 4.3 yppl to 4.0 yppl but the emotions surrounding that game could have taken some of the Hokies’ focus away from their opponent. Virginia Tech’s offense struggled, but East Carolina has a good defense and we know that Virginia Tech’s offense isn’t any worse than last year’s mediocre unit given their 8 returning starters (including the quarterback and leading rusher). We also know that Virginia Tech’s defense was the best in the nation last year and is one of the top 3 units this season (along with USC and LSU). LSU’s offense struggled last week and new starting quarterback Matt Flynn is likely to struggle even more against Virginia Tech’s strong stop unit just as the Hokies are likely to struggle against LSU’s defense. In a battle between two great defensive teams taking the points looks like the way to go. My ratings only favor LSU by 8 ½ points after making adjustments based on last week’s games and taking strong defensive teams getting more than a touchdown is generally a good bet. Virginia Tech is 7-1 ATS as an underdog the last 6 seasons and 62% over 20 years while the Hokies are also 20-3 ATS in their last 23 regular season non-conference games when not favored by 25 points or more. In addition to the line value and team trends Virginia Tech also applies to a 41-12-2 ATS game 2 situation and I’ll take Virginia Tech in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more.

I suppose I could look it up, but how did Dr. Bob do last week? It's one of the few services worth tracking.

anyone have his ncaa strong opinions? supposed to be 9 of them.

thanks in advance for the info

glta

thanks i really appreciate dr bob stuff--use it for teases and stuff ---sometimes even go against if the line moves too much
gl
tom

anyone have his 9 strong opinions for this week's college football?

as always thanks in advance!!!