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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Tottenham boast arguably the best front three in the division with Harry Kane, Son Heung-min and Gareth Bale, while City have the best player in the division midfield maestro Kevin De Bruyne in their ranks alongside Raheem Sterling, another huge attacking threat.
Of the two teams I would say Tottenham are much more solid defensively but they are missing a couple of key defenders, which should enhance the likelihood of goals.
In the last 10 years in the Premier League in this fixture it has been a level split of five matches cashing on over 2.5 goals and five matches going under, but certainly in these unprecedented times and goals on the increase in the EPL I will be playing both over 2.5 goals in the match at -162 with William Hill and the “yes” on both teams to score, which is available at -175.
Tottenham have been the much better side a quarter of the way into the new season and many people I have spoken to about this match believe that they represent great value at 3-1, but despite City's below-par performances they had a huge boost earlier this week after manager Pep Guardiola put pen to paper and signed a new contract that will keep him at the Ethiad until 2023. I can see a much better performance from the visitors, which they desperately need, and if I was looking to get with Spurs in any capacity I would look to take them 0.5 at around 105, which would cash the ticket on both a Tottenham win and a draw.
If you are looking for a little bit of pizza money in a match that is very even with two sides whose strengths are in their offense rather than their defense, then a couple of small plays to get some pizza money on the match to end as a "desmond" 2-2 at 14/1 and to finish in a 3-3 classic at 40/1 are worthy of a small interest.
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11-20-20 10:54 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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For the second time this season Aston Villa went into the international break riding high off a blowout win over a member of the Big Six. The Villans took apart Arsenal, 3-0, in a ruthless victory much the same way they disposed of Liverpool, 7-2, before the October pause.
Their season may only be seven matches old, but the Villans have already proven they will be a much tougher out in 2020/21 than they were for the majority of the 2019/20 campaign.
A win as favorites over Brighton & Hove Albion could see Aston Villa leap into the top four by the time these weekend’s matches conclude. Beware, though, Brighton’s results are quite misleading.
Brighton & Hove Albion
Brighton & Hove Albion are the clubhouse leaders in misfortune through the first two months of the season. Their 3-2 loss against Manchester United back on Sept. 26 could serve as a metaphor for the Seagulls’ campaign to date. Brighton largely outplayed United in that match and had to overcome five (5!) shots off the post to tie the game in the 94th minute. Unfortunately, United won a dubious penalty in the 99th minute to seal the victory.
In that match, Brighton attempted 11 more shots, controlled 72% of the chances and won the expected goals battle, 2.98 to 1.58. Outplaying opponents only to lose has been a common theme for the Seagulls in 2020/21.
In that match, Brighton attempted 11 more shots, controlled 72% of the chances and won the expected goals battle, 2.98 to 1.58. Outplaying opponents only to lose has been a common theme for the Seagulls in 2020/21.
Only five teams (Liverpool, Spurs, Leicester, Chelsea and Villa) sport a better xG/90 than Brighton this season and no team has conceded fewer expected goals and non-penalty xG (npxG) than the Seagulls (including a few clubs that have played one fewer contest this campaign).
Brighton are winless in their last six matches and just three points above the relegation zone, but by every metric — except for the one that matters — Graham Potter’s Seagulls have been one of the most impressive teams in the Premier League this season.
Aston Villa
Aston Villa’s success is legitimate, and even though they have played only seven matches this season, the turnaround at Villa Park can be traced back to right after the hiatus in 2019/20.
At some point during the pause, Dean Smith decided to turn Villa into a defensive force and the changes implemented worked as the Villans allowed just 1.01 xG per match in their last 10 contests last season. That form has carried over into the new campaign, as Villa held their opponents to just 0.93 xG per 90 minutes through their first four contests.
It was a longshot that Villa’s defense was going to perform at that level for the entire season, so the recent dip in form in front of their own goal should not be all that worrisome, especially since the Villans have proven that they can create scoring chances. They also have some match-winning talents in Jack Grealish, Ross Barkley and Ollie Watkins.
Villa could be the perfect buy-low, sell-high team in the Premier League in 2020/21. The Villans certainly have the talent and organization to pull off some memorable upsets, but they are still a work in progress and lack cover if one of the aforementioned stars are injured or off the pace in a certain match.
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11-21-20 01:48 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Manchester City is only seven matches into the 2020-21 Premier League season, but the Cityzens find themselves in an unfamiliar position in the table. They travel to North London on Saturday to take on Tottenham in 10th place, while Spurs are second and unbeaten in their last seven league games.
Tottenham
Jose Mourinho’s men enter this contest with Manchester City sitting second in the Premier League following a stellar start to the new season. With Son Heung-min and Harry Kane (1.3 combined expected goals per game) flying high, Tottenham have been boosted by an impressive three-man midfield of Moussa Sissoko, Pierre-Emile Hjobjerg and Tanguy Ndombele.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
During their seven-match unbeaten run in the Premier League, Spurs have dropped four points, all due to last stoppage-time equalizers.
Tottenham has quite the recent history with Manchester City, knocking them out of the Champions League in the quarterfinals in 2018-19. Last season’s two Premier League meetings were filled with controversy surrounding VAR, as the teams drew in Manchester and Spurs won, 2-0, at home.
Mourinho has built his career on a successful managerial style against teams that will want to have a high percentage of possession. His Spurs side will be happy to give Manchester City the majority of the ball while they sit deeper and look to counter. Few teams in the Premier League are more built to counter better than Tottenham.
While City did play without Gabriel Jesus and Sergio Aguero for a stretch and that will undoubtedly affect their xG production, they also rank middle of the road in xG numbers across the board. This is the first year in the PL under Guardiola they haven’t led in xGF/90 or shots/90. Their pressing intensity is only sixth in the league, which is down from first, first and fourth in the last three seasons.
City rank fifth in the league in passes completed within 20 yards of the opponents’ goal, which is significantly worse than the past three seasons when they comfortably led the Premier League.
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11-21-20 01:50 PM |
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