The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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effamy
Registered: Mar 2004
Posts: 143
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1/10/05 opinions
redak-
Not much today with a limited board to choose from, but I am playing
Coll of Charleston -2, and teasing down Iona and Tenn-chat by 5 each.
Still don't have numbers for a couple of games, will post later if I see anything good.
Yesterday you asked about NC Grnsboro @ Furman. The last line I saw was furman -7.5. I think Furman will win but don't see the ATS win. But I can see why you could say Furman has the edge. Furman has a higher "power rating." For me, Grnsb is rated 159 in sagarin, furman at 189. Grnsboro has played on average against a generous line of roughly +12.9 but has underperformed it by 2.3 points. Furman has played against a tougher line of +5.2 and as you would expect has underperformed it by a bit more at 3.6 points. So greensboro has outperformed furman vs. the line but it was against a much more generous line-so you can weigh that accordingly. The kicker for me is that greensboros avg opp rating for me is 81.5, and furmans is 78.7. So given that grnsboros schedule has been a bit tougher, you would expect more generous lines.
I usually weigh all that in a touchy-feely way and don't put into pure math, but if you do put all those numbers together you get furman by 4. So while I don't really consider that to be predictive of the outcome, it is enough to make me walk away from this game and look for a better one. Like I said yesterday, I look for any reason NOT to bet a game.
I hope this lasts. It worked well last season. If I could only figure out all the other sports I would be very happy. But I stink at baseball, NBA, football. This method requires a lot of games to choose from to filter, and there are just not enough teams in any other sport to compare to the 300+ in division 1 hoops.
good luck.
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01-10-05 05:52 PM |
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