don't forget about the after no hitter play it's a nice dog opportunity today
GL

2. Take Advantage of Plus-Money Underdogs
In order to make money betting football and basketball, bettors must win 52.4% of the time (assuming -110 juice) in order to break even. However, if MLB bettors avoid big favorites and consistently take plus-money dogs (+120, +150, +170) they can win at a sub-50% clip but still finish the year with positive units won. When dogs lose, you only lose what you risked. But when they win, you enjoy valuable plus-money payouts.

3. Bet Against the Public
For years, we’ve detailed the value of betting against the public. We like to go contrarian because, more often than not, the public loses. The Average Joe bets based on his gut instinct. He always wants to bet favorites, home teams, popular franchises and teams with star players. He’s also a victim of recency bias. If a team looked great last game, he’ll bet it. If it looked awful, he’ll fade it. By going contrarian, we are able to capitalize on public bias and take advantage of artificially inflated numbers. As an added bonus, we also place ourselves on the side of the books. We all know the house always wins.

4. Follow Reverse Line Movement
Baseball isn’t just about taking plus money dogs and blindly going contrarian. You also want to be on the sharp side of every game (with the professional bettors who have a long track record of success). One of the best ways to locate sharp action is to follow Reverse Line Movement (RLM): when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages.

For example: say the Cubs open -150 against the Brewers (+130). Chicago is getting 75% of moneyline bets, but you see the Cubs fall from -150 to -135, while the Brewers move from +130 to +115. Why would the books drop the line to give public Cubs bettors a better number? Because sharp action came in on the Brewers. Even though Milwaukee is only getting 25% of bets, the line moved in their favor.

Since 2005, MLB teams (both dogs and favorites) getting less than 35% moneyline bets with RLM of at least one cent have gone 3319-4139 (44.5%), +89.24 units won.

If you raise the RLM to 10 cents or more, it gets even better. A $100 bettor would have earned over $12,000 following this system since 2005.

5. Focus on Divisional Dogs
Because teams within the division play each other 19 times per year, it breeds familiarity and levels the playing field, which inevitably benefits the dog. Since 2005, dogs in divisional games (think Red Sox vs Yankees) have produced +83.72 units, while dogs outside the division have lost an astounding -574.62 units.

Divisional dogs perform even better if we layer in two more filters. First, road teams (the public overvalues home-field advantage, creating inflated value on visitors). Second, a high total (8.5 or more). With more runs expected to be scored, it leads to more variance, aiding the underdog. This system has produced an incredible +177.73 units since 2005.

If we go one step further and layer in contrarian value (teams less than 30% in heavily bet games) as well as reverse line movement (sharp action), the win rate increases from 43.7% to 45.9% and the ROI (return on investment) increases from 3.1% to 10.8%.

6. Know the Weather
While the majority of bets are placed on the moneyline, bettors can still find value betting on totals. One big factor to consider before placing a total wager: the weather, specifically wind. Using Bet Labs, we’ve found that when the wind is blowing in at 5 MPH or more the under has gone 764-613 (55.5%), +99.9 units won, 6.9% ROI. This under edge becomes even more pronounced in day games at Wrigley Field: 153-87 (63.8%), +57.91 units won, 23.2% ROI.

When the wind blows in, it can turn home runs into warning track outs, benefiting unders. Conversely, when it blows out, it can turn fly balls into homers and benefit overs. Since 2005, when the wind is blowing out at 8 MPH or more the Over has gone 1007-889 (53.1%), +80.42 units won, 4% ROI.

There have been 297 no-hitters in MLB history, an average of about two per season. While we only saw one in each of the past two seasons (Jake Arrieta in 2016 and Edinson Vólquez in 2017), we have already seen three (in three different countries) in 2018. James Paxton threw the latest no-no in his most recent start against the Blue Jays — a 99-pitch sparkler.

Maybe we can finally see someone throw back-to-back no-hitters for the first time since 1938 when Johnny Vander Meer did so for the Reds. Vander Meer, a southpaw like Paxton, remains the only pitcher in MLB history to accomplish that feat.

Everybody knows Paxton just threw a no-hitter, but if you include his previous start as well, he has allowed no runs and five hits and has struck out 23 over his past 16 innings.

Looking beyond the no-hitter, Paxton has been one of the best starters all-around this season. Entering Saturday, the Canadian is one of only seven starters with 60+ strikeouts and an opponent batting average of .200 or less. He joins pretty impressive company on that list

Detroit recently placed Miguel Cabrera on the 10-day DL. He joined Leonys Martin, reliever Alex Wilson and starters Daniel Norris and Jordan Zimmermann. As a result of the injuries to their starters, the Tigers purchased the contract of Hardy from Triple-A Toledo to allow him to make his first career start after 167 previous big league appearances out of the pen. You can expect the southpaw to throw 60 to 70 pitches — if all goes right.

There’s a reason Hardy has been used at times as a pure lefty specialist. For his career, lefties hit just .222 off him, while righties have hit a much healthier .290. After a doubleheader Saturday, the Tigers could be in trouble if Hardy can’t give them any length — especially with Wilson on the DL. Their long reliever option might be Ryan Carpenter, another pitcher who just got recalled from Toledo.

However, a lefty specialist shouldn’t bother Seattle, which has raked southpaws all season. The Mariners rank fourth in average, fourth in on-base percentage and seventh in slugging percentage against left-handed pitching.

also Jerry Meals working today for those that like F5 plays
GL

Oakland Athletics-New York Yankees Under 8.5
1:05 p.m. ET

Only 34% of bettors have taken this under, but sharps are certainly in that minority, as they’ve caused market-wide steam twice at BetOnline and Pinnacle.

Braves -144 in Miami. Marlins have lost all 8 Jose Urena starts this season. Braves lead the NL in OPS and AVG vs RHP.

Sean Newcomb has a 1.78 road ERA in 5 starts. Marlins are averaging a league-low 3.43 runs per game at home.

Dbacks (-160) are 19-6 in Greinke's last 25 home starts and he has a 1.72 ERA in 5 home starts this season.

They face Jhoulys Chacin who they beat up pretty good last season (5.21 ERA in 19 IP). He also has a 5.27 road ERA this season.

Regarding big favorites in MLB — Are you better off doing a 2 unit bet on the moneyline or a 1 unit bet on the runline?

Since the beginning of last season, betting $200 on ML favorites of -200 returned $930.

Betting $100 on the RL in those spots returned -$644.

Friday is arguably the best day of the week for sharp MLB bettors. Public players are finishing their work week and are more apt to get down on games (specifically favorites and home teams), which leads to increased ticket counts and more contrarian value. Additionally, there are no day games and all games are played at 7 p.m. ET or later, which provides even more time for bet counts to rise.

Colorado Rockies-San Francisco Giants Under 7.5
4:05 p.m. ET

Given the relatively low total, only 35% of bettors are taking the under in this matchup. Sharps are in that minority, however. They’ve been hammering the under since last night, bringing the total down from its opening number of 8.

With the Reds W

Cubs are 1-7 on the road the next day after a game where they had 10+ hits.

Kendricks falls to 3-12 in daytime

A’s at -110 in Toronto. Jays are an incredible 3-14 in Joe Biagini’s last 17 starts and he’s off to an awful start this season. A’s starter Daniel Mengden has allowed 2 ERs or less in 5 of his last 6 starts.

Swingin’ A’s today

Yankees at -250 in KC. They've won 8 of Severino's 9 starts, while KC has lost 8 of Duffy's 9 starts. Severino has allowed 14 ERs this season, Duffy has allowed 15 in his last 3 starts.

12 of KC's 16 home losses have been by 2 or more.

Colorado Rockies-San Francisco Giants Under 8
4:05 p.m. ET

They got this one wrong yesterday, but sharps are still feeling good about the under in this NL West matchup. Only 27% of bettors are behind it, but these three bet signals make it clear that wiseguys are among that minority.

The juice on the under has also gone from -110 to -114 as a result of the professional action

Nice underdog spot for the Rays at +120 hosting Boston. In 2 starts this season vs BOS Blake Snell has allowed just 2 runs and 8 hits. He also has a 1.07 home ERA and BOS is ranked 25th in OPS vs LHP

Under 7 1/2 (-120) last night

The Giants play the Cubs at Wrigley tonight. The Giants are 13-7 to the over against lefties this year. In fact, no team in the NL has scored more runs against lefties this year than the Giants. Quintana goes for the Cubs and he has a home ERA this year of 6.30, and a career ERA against the Giants of 4.97. Several Giants have had substantial success against him for their careers. Meanwhile the Cubs face righty Chris Stratton. No team in the NL has scored more runs this year against righties than the Cubs. Over the past 30 days, Stratton has been getting rocked to the tune of an ERA of 8.59, a BAA of .358 and a WHIP of 2.18 (48 men on base in 22 innings pitched).

a flip with Flaherty and the Cards why not ?
GL

Astros at -110 in CLE. McCullers had an elite performance vs Indians on Sunday (0 ER, 1 H, 8 Ks in 7 IP). He's also allowed 2 or fewer ERs in 8 of his 10 starts and CLE is much worse vs RHP.

HOU had 8 hits and scored 3 runs off Carrasco in that same game. He has a 5.01 home ERA.

Fits the total SS as well