what an action filled week we have in front of us on the pitch, let's do it folks !
GL

DORTMUND v PSG

8 of their last 9 fixtures across all comps have now seen a minimum of 4 goals, with 5 of 6 since the winter break featuring a minimum of 5

BTTS -260 seems pricy in the PSG/Dortmund match but has a very high percentage to cash

Atletico Madrid v Liverpool | Tuesday 18th February 2020, 3:00 | BT Sport

Jurgen Klopp surely has his eyes on an historic treble this season with the Premier League all but wrapped up, the Reds are on the charge for FA Cup glory, as well as consecutive Champions League medals.

The sheer relentlessness of this Reds side is scary. Klopp and co have festered a winning mentality and when such an ethos becomes engrained in a football club it’s virtually impossible to stop them. It’s the workings of a long term strategy in the background that has been sorely lacking in English football. They’ve recruited superbly and have a cutting edge in term of analysis that sets them apart from the rest.

Liverpool have to be delighted with this draw too. On the current season's form, Atletico Madrid are one of the worst sides left in the competition and it’s very hard to see them troubling a Liverpool defence who have conceded a single goal in over two months of football.

Diego Simeone was rightly heralded for leading the unfashionable Atleti to a La Liga and Europa League title, as well as Champions League finals, during his stint with Los Colchoneros but the last year or so have seen a fall off in results despite more and more being spent on the squad.

A pivotal moment in the start of their decline was no doubt losing central midfielder, and leader, Gabi. He along with the likes of Tiago, and latterly Antoine Griezmann, Filipe Luis and Diego Godin departing has left a character void in the roster and they just don’t seem to have that elite ‘you will not beat us’ mentality.

Simeone promised a change to a more free flowing, attacking approach but no sooner was the season a month old he reverted back to type.

These kind of managers can only go so far in my eyes. If you just can’t break teams down or aren’t willing to commit bodies forward due to an obsession with shape off the ball it has a shelf life with players and eventually they’ll get fed up. It just has that kind of feeling at the capital club at the moment, it’s all a bit tired.

Having said that you cannot scoff at Atleti's excellent home record in this particular competition. You have to go back to 2017 when Chelsea beat them 2-1 for the last time they lost at the Wanda Metropolitano. In fact it’s just two losses in their last 33 at home when competing in the Champions League – a quite staggering record. It’s even more insane to think they’ve conceded just 12 goals in that stretch.

Tight tussle forecast
I could understand why people would be tempted by the price on Liverpool here at odds-against but given that record, and the fact this is over two legs, I’m not willing to back them in the outright market here despite their excellent campaign.

I’m not expecting a classic, well, it could be a classic Atletico performance. I’d expect the hosts to sit off in a disciplined two banks of four with makeshift strikers Angel Correa and Vitolo sitting deep. It just has that feeling of a game without much goalmouth action, especially so given it’s a first leg, and on balance a draw would probably be sufficient for both managers.

The stalemate can be backed at a more than fair 23/10 with Boylesports and I wouldn’t even put anyone off a punt on No Goalscorer at 11/2.

Another market that follows on from that thought process is laying the match shots. I’m surprised the shot line is set at 24.5 on Bet365 and I’m happy to side with the unders. As mentioned, I’m expecting plenty of possession but little penetration, and given Atleti average 11.8 shots in La Liga but only concede 10.5, I’m happy to back the under for this one.

Card handicap appeals
Finally, I think there’s a great looking bet in the card market and that’s backing Atleti with a 0 start on the Asian Card Handicap. I appreciate that’s quite a mouthful and it may be a market you’re not familiar with so I will explain.

This can be found under the cards tab on Bet365 and it is listed as Asian Handicap Cards. Effectively we are backing Atletico Madrid to pick up more cards than Liverpool with the caveat that should the two teams have an equal amount of cards then we get our stakes returned. So Atleti most cards = win, equal cards = money back, Liverpool most cards = loss.

I couldn’t believe that you could get 4/5 quotes on this bet and it’s one of my favourites of the week. Atletico are seeing an average of around 2.5 cards per-game in their native league whilst Liverpool are the best behaved team in the Premier League with an average of 1.0 card per-game.

With Atleti likely to be doing most the defending and the fact Spanish team in general are more dirty/streetwise than English ones, I think this represents a fantastic angle into what could be a rather drab affair.

Dortmund v PSG | Tuesday 18th February 2020, 3:00 | BT Sport

This should be a classic.

The Champions League returns as two of Europe’s most potent sides, Borussia Dortmund and PSG, battle it out for a place in the quarter-finals.

It comes of little surprise to know that BVB and Les Parisiens are the top scoring teams in their respective leagues when you take a glance at the attacking talent they have at their disposal. Hitting the net 130 times between them domestically also highlights the attacking intent that Lucien Favre and Thomas Tuchel demand from their players.

Tuchel, of course, will be returning to his old stomping ground of Signal Iduna Park where he managed for two years, in a reign that contained controversy and dispute, just as his time at PSG has done.

Tuchel has had a strained relationship with some of his senior players and although they’ve been unsurprisingly dominant in Ligue 1, PSG have been unable to shake off the Last 16 Champions League jinx which is preventing them from progressing on to European glory which owners Qatar Sports Investment crave.

One big doubt for French club is a fitness of Neymar, who is considered doubtful to be fit in time to travel for this first leg. Of course the Brazilian is no stranger to injury, especially considering how often he is hacked down by opposition players wound up by his tricks and flicks, but his absence would still be a blow.

Neymar missed the latter stages of this competition last season so will desperate to make sure he’s fit enough to make an impact this time around with a return to Barcelona rumoured to be his next destination.

For me, PSG just don’t have the character or mentality required to win the Champions League. A squad full of big money signings have repeatedly frozen when it comes to the crunch of a match-up like this and they simply have too much defence naivety and petulance to force a real challenge in my view.

The weekend’s 4-4 draw with Amiens, a side in the relegation zone, showed some of the best and worst of PSG under their current manager, going three goals down only to turn the game on its head to lead 4-3 before surrendering that advantage in stoppage time.

To have conceded four goals from five opposition shots on-target will be of huge concern to the capital club and points to a team playing far too open and without much discipline. The main plus from the game however would have been the contribution of 17 year-old defender Tanguy Kouassi who scored twice from corner kicks, a weakness of Dortmund from a defensive point of view so the 6ft 2” centre-back will look to use his aerial prowess to good effect again.

Dortmund are such a fun side to watch and I think that they’ve been underestimated here in front of their own supporters, including the infamous Yellow Wall. Priced at 2/1 in some places just simply does not reflect how imperious the Germans have been at home with Favre’s men now unbeaten in 17 on home territory, a run of games which has seen them score a whopping 62 goals. It’s a price I expect to shorten before kick-off.

The 4-0 demolition of Eintracht Frankfurt on Friday evening was a brilliant performance in which all but one of their outfield players registered a shot on goal, showing how dominant they were all over the pitch in winning their one-on-one battles. The likes of Raphael Guerreiro and Jadon Sancho have been in fabulous recent form but it’s January signing Erling Haaland who has grabbed the headlines with his instant success in new surroundings.

Haaland now has eight goals in five appearances and won the Bundesliga Player of the Month for January despite only playing 59 minutes during the month with a goal every 11 minutes on the pitch!

Favre has described the Norwegian as “unstoppable” and with PSG looking so flimsy at the back, it’s hard to ignore the 13/10 on Haaland to score anytime with SkyBet. The 19 year-old striker already has eight goals in the Champions League this season for former club Red Bull Salzburg so surrounded by better creative players, it’s little wonder he has hit the back of the net so frequently already.

Given that I’m backing Dortmund’s main front man to bag, it make sense to look at the team goal lines too which, in line with the outrights, are too generous in my opinion. The home side to score Over 1.5 Goals in the game is Evens with Bet365 and I’m going to make that my second selection.

Favre will know that progression in the tie will heavily depend on the result in this first leg and will want his side to take a healthy lead to Paris is a few of weeks time.

Examining PSG’s Champions League away record gave me even more encouragement to place this bet. Although Neymar, Mbappe and Co. have been comfortable winners at the likes of Club Brugge, Galatasaray and Red Star Belgrade, they’ve conceded two or more goals on visits to Real Madrid (x2), Liverpool, Bayern Munich and THAT trip to Barcelona in 2017 which saw them implode late-on and concede six goals.

Draw
+300
Gillingham FC vs Southend United
Ticket # 442007024

Draw
+313
AFC Wimbledon vs Oxford United
Ticket # 442007025

glta

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They may not have mattered all that much in the bigger picture, but Pep Guardiola will be deeply frustrated after consecutive defeats to Man Utd and Spurs, with that the first time they’ve failed to score in back-to-back games since he arrived in Manchester.


However, Man City still progressed to the Carabao Cup final over their city rivals, while Jose Mourinho’s side rode their luck in an ill-tempered game. City were down to 10 men before the two goals went in and it’s not as though they didn’t have big chances to score.


The Hammers should provide useful fodder for breeding confidence in City’s frontline again, although it remains to be seen what level of rotation Guardiola may deploy with away matches versus Leicester and Real Madrid coming up next.

Raheem Sterling certainly won’t play here having picked up a hamstring injury, but City’s squad hardly lacks attacking depth and the Hammers backline is so porous that any team Guardiola puts out should possess sufficient firepower.


David Moyes started his second spell at the London club with clean sheets against Bournemouth and Gillingham, but the Hammers haven’t kept one in the subsequent six fixtures and have even conceded 10 in the past four. In fact, only Southampton, Villa and Norwich have conceded more goals this term in the league.


Up against the current top five in the table, the visitors have lost five of six clashes this term and conceded 16 times, with City themselves inflicting a 5-0 defeat in the reverse fixture on the opening day of the season.


There should be no further misfiring back at the Etihad then, though we wouldn’t be confident of the hosts shutting their opponents out either.


Man City To Win And Both Teams To Score


City have collected just four cleans sheets in 24 games across all competitions, while at the Etihad alone it’s two from 12 as one of those came over Championship side Fulham, and the other against low-scoring Sheffield Utd.


Having Aymeric Laporte back from injury will help matters, but with just 78 minutes under his belt after nearly four months out, he’ll need longer to get back to his best and may not feature here in any case.


Despite the Hammers’ struggles, they do often find the net and have done so in four of their last five against teams in the top five of the table, with the exception a Liverpool side marshalled by Virgil van Dijk with Alisson in behind him.


City’s defence can’t be compared to that of the Reds, with the 29 goals they’ve shipped this term nearly double that of the champions elect, but at the Etihad they should be taking maximum points regardless.


Indeed, they’ve won 19 of 21 unbeaten matches hosting bottom-six sides under Guardiola, plundering 71 goals in the process.

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A Son Heung-min brace saw Spurs overcome relegation scrapping Aston Villa at the weekend, with the last goal coming in the dying seconds after a Bjorn Engels error.


These were the Lilywhites’ first league goals on the road of 2020, gifting them their first away win across all competitions since mid-December, though on their home turf they’re a much more competitive outfit.


Indeed, they’ve now won four on the bounce at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, and a total of eight from 10 under Jose Mourinho. However, their two defeats came to nil against fellow Champions League opposition in Liverpool and Chelsea, while they were 0-0 with Man City before the visitors went down to 10 men.


Their seven other victories came either against bottom-half sides, Olympiakos or Middlesbrough, with only two of those seven coming by more than a solitary strike, so Leipzig will fancy their chances of taking a positive result back to the Red Bull Arena.


Leipzig are, however, struggling to find their best form of late. Their 3-0 victory over second bottom Werder Bremen at the weekend was their first in five matches, while their main man Timo Werner is going through something of a mini-drought having failed to find the net in any of those matches.


That said, their home form has a completely different look to it, winning seven of their last nine unbeaten matches at the Red Bull Arena. With that in mind, Leipzig’s priority here will be to take an away goal or two back with them and rely on their home fans to get them over the line.

Both Teams To Score And Either Team To Win


Despite failing to win in four matches on the road, goals have not been an issue. In fact, they’ve now scored in 26 of their 28 road trips since the beginning of 2019, scoring two or more in 19 of them and a minimum of three in 15.


Jose Mourinho has failed to sort out his back line yet, as they looked incredibly shaky in the opening spell at the weekend, conceding 18 shots in total across the match.


In fact, they’ve now conceded at least 10 shots in each of their last eight matches despite all but two of those coming against bottom-half or Championship sides, so we wouldn’t be surprised at all if Leipzig capitalised on their backline disarray.


With the both teams to score market seeming relatively short we’re looking to couple it with an outright.


The hosts will invariably be pushing hard for a win here to give them the upper hand going into the second leg, and that could open this game up more than a first leg Champions League knockout tie should.


Given Spurs haven’t drawn a single game here under Mourinho yet, the odds for either team to find a winner appeals.

Atalanta v Valencia | Wednesday 19th February 2020, 3:00 | BT Sport

Atalanta’s debut Champions League season continues on Wednesday night, becoming the first side in the competition’s history to make the Last 16 despite losing all three of their opening group stage matches.

The Bergamo club have been playing their European home ties in Milan at the historic San Siro whilst their Gewiss Stadium undergoes much-needed renovation making it totally unsuitable for occasions like this.

Gian Gasperini’s men are having another good season in Serie A, extending their lead over fifth-placed Roma to six points after beating their top four rivals 2-1 this past Saturday, coming from behind to pick up a deserved win.

Substitute Mario Pasalic, on loan from Chelsea, scored just 19 seconds after coming off the bench which is a manager’s dream, and simply adds to the plaudits of the experienced Italian boss. Pasalic’s introduction allowed the versatile Papu Gomez to move into a more advanced role and gave them much more creativity so Gomez could well play in that role from the start in this match.

Like so many of the sides that have made it through the group stages, Atalanta have some wonderful attacking players within the squad to call upon and it’s brought about 71 goals in 30 domestic and European games combined with La Dea top scorers in Serie A this season.

Duvan Zapata has only this calendar year returned from a three-month injury lay-off but the Colombian’s absence allowed Gasperini to experiment and it reaped rewards with some big wins that the supporters will savour for a long time to come, including a 7-1 win over Udinese, 5-0 wins against Parma and Milan and 3-0 victory against bitter rivals Brescia.

Ilicic in fantastic form
The man that seemingly benefitted the most from Zapata’s absence was Josip Ilicic. The Slovenian International has found the net 10 times in his previous nine matches and his link-up play is integral to the success of the team. Betfair are offering 17/10 that Ilicic will score anytime here and I’m willing to take that on.

Valencia are without both first choice centre-backs – Gabriel Paulista through suspension/injury and Ezequiel Garay who misses our through injury. The error prone Eliaquim Mangala will step in alongside Mouctar Dialhaby and I think Ilicic will target the former to get the better of.

In the form the 32 year-old is in, there aren’t many more strikers in Europe that would want on the end of a chance in the six yard box above him currently. I expect the home side to have the better of this game so the lethal front man should get chances against a side that have conceded seven times in three games.

Inconsistent Valencia
Valencia’s results can be described as inconsistent at best in what has turned out to be a very poor La Liga season. The 4-4-2 system has it’s pros and cons but it looks weak when you take out some crucial components of it. There’s no doubting that Atalanta fans would have been delighted when the draw was made considering the much stronger opponents they could be facing instead.

Valencia will want to keep this right and take some form of a result back to the intimidating Mestalla where they traditionally put in their best performances. Their last nine Champions League away trips have seen them score only five goals and they were heavily reliant on their defensive resolve in the group stage wins at Chelsea and Ajax to get the three points.

With a make-shift back four lining up here, I’m not sure Los Che will have the required personnel to cope with the Italians' forward line.

Atalanta’s domestic home games this season have averaged a massive 4.33 goals and every single one of them has gone over the 1.5 goal line. The 21/20 with Betway on Atalanta to win and Over 1.5 Goals therefore appeals and will be my second selection.

With around 40,000 of the Black and Blue fans set to make the trip to Milan to support their team, Gasperini’s players shouldn’t take too long to re-adjust to their surroundings and I’m backing the home side to come out on top in this home leg at the very least.

Olympiakos v Arsenal | Thursday 20th February 2020, 3:00 | BT Sport

Arsenal travel to Greece to take on Olympiakos in the first leg of the Last 32 in the Europa League. The Gunners have been in better form of late and their last outing against Newcastle seemed to show a big improvement as they ran out 4-0 winners.

Under Mikel Arterta, Arsenal have lost just once and they’ll be keen to carry that good run of results on and take a solid scoreline back to London for the second leg.

Arsenal will be up against an Olympiakos side that haven’t lost since their 4-2 defeat to Tottenham way back in November. Their 18-game unbeaten run is impressive but It's tough to know how strong their form is as the Greek Super League isn't known for being one of Europe’s elite but I'm sure they’ll go into the game with nothing to lose.

The hosts might look to their recent record at home against Arsenal for inspiration, having won three of their last four meetings with the Gunners in their Piraeus surroundings.

As I've said previously, it’s tough to know how strong Olympiakos’ form is but having qualified for the Champions League and having held Spurs to a draw at home, I think they could pose a few problems for a Gunners side that will probably make a few changes.

Arsenal’s away record in the Premier League leaves a lot to be desired and during the Europa League so far, they managed one win on their travels in the group stage, drawing the other two fixtures. The draw angle does take my eye in this game at 12/5 (Bet365).

I think we could see a cagey affair in a difficult climate for the visitors and if there are changes to the Arsenal side, I don’t see them carrying on the same fluency that they had on Sunday.

Another angle I like in this match is for both teams to find the back of the net. Olympiakos have scored in every home game this season and they’ll be confident of doing so again in what should be a red-hot atmosphere against an Arsenal side who have conceded in five out of their last seven away.

The Gunners have also found the back of the net in five out of their last seven on the road and so I’m happy to take the 4/6 (William Hill) on Both Teams To Score.

This will be an intriguing affair and it will be interesting to see what type of team Arterta puts out. He could change a few players to rest his stars for a push for Champions League qualification via the league or he could go with a strong side and try to keep the momentum going from Sunday’s big victory.

Wolves v Espanyol | Thursday 20th February 2020, 3:00 | BT Sport

Wolves’ European adventure continues as they host Espanyol on Thursday night, and there are a number of interesting angles to consider coming up against La Liga’s bottom club.

The Europa League has offered Espanyol a welcome break from their struggles in Spain as they topped Group H, easing past Ludogorets, Ferencvaros and CSKA Moscow, only conceding four goals in the process.

Coming up against Premier League high-flyers Wolves, it will be a much tougher test for the Barcelona club, however their domestic form has begun to pick up in recent weeks, coinciding with Abelardo’s appointment as head coach, as well as the arrival of striker Raul de Tomas in January, who has now netted four goals in four games.

La Liga woes
Domestically, goals have been a problem for Espanyol, only scoring 21 goals all season at an Expected Goals (xG) output of 24.90, and with de Tomas an injury doubt after missing the 2-2 draw with Sevilla on the weekend, goals again could be an issue for the Budgies.

Lining up 4-2-3-1 last time out, Espanyol looked to sit deep and hit Sevilla on the counter, and they frustrated Julen Lopetegui’s side for long periods before Victor Sanchez’s red card 20 minutes from time when 2-1 up, put the Budgies under a barrage of pressure and they were unable to hold out.

With the pace of Wolves in behind the Espanyol defence, I would expect to see them look to sit deep once again, and try and utilise the counter, and crucial to this will be ex-West Ham striker Jonathan Calleri up front, who’s hold up play against Sevilla allowed the onrushing attackers to link the play.

However, coming up against Connor Coady, in particular in Wolves’ back three, he risks being isolated, and with the covering work of Ruben Neves and Joao Moutinho in front, it could be a long evening for the Spanish side’s defence.

Wolves’ threat
Adama Traore should be raring to go, whilst Nuno Espirito Santo may be tempted to hand a start to Daniel Podence or Pedro Neto on the opposite flank. These are ready-made replacements for Wolves’ wingers, and will be keen to cause problems for Espanyol’s backline, who could be left exposed if attackers don’t track back.

Suso was able to cause problems throughout down Espanyol’s left side on Sunday, so Traore will be looking to do the same, all be it a contrasting style to Suso as an inverted winger.

Cards are no stranger to the full backs up against Traore as Ben Chilwell found out on Friday, and the left back for Espanyol will either be Didac Vila or Adria Pedrosa, and Pedrosa’s price at 4/1 (Bet365) is one to keep in mind when the line-ups are announced.

Getting in behind the Espanyol backline will be crucial to Wolves’ hopes and is indicative of their playing style, especially with Raul Jimenez to pick out in the middle, and it was his wastefulness in front of goal that cost them the three points against 10-man Leicester.

Wolves will look to control possession, which has been a theme in Europa League games compared to their Premier League clashes, where possession increases from 48.2% to 53.4%, and a dominant Old Gold should have enough creativity to break down a side that has conceded 42 goals domestically.

The betting angles
Despite the investment in January for Espanyol, they are still struggling to find the back of the net without de Tomas, so whether hit fitness will have a huge bearing on the game.

I do think Wolves pose a strong enough threat to break down La Liga’s bottom side, and as ever, are well equipped defensively to cope with their threat. Priced at 11/10, I’d be looking at Wolves to win and Under 3.5 Goals in the game, especially when considering some of the cagey first legs in Europe we are used to seeing.

Considering the wide threat as ever from Wolves, and deep backline they will be up against, they should expect to rack up the corners, much like against Leicester last Friday when pressing on.

With Espanyol also expected to sit back, and damage limitation potentially playing a part rather than looking to press on and chase given the two-legged nature of the game, I’d expect Wolves to have the most corners comfortably.

Getafe v Ajax | Thursday 20th February 2020, 12:55 | BT Sport

For me, Getafe have been the story of the season on the continent.

From the outset there looks like there’s very little going for the Madrid-based club. Largely in the shadow of capital giants Real and Atleti, Geta are always punching above their weight. Their Coliseum Alfonso Perez stadium only holds 17,000 fans and due to the catchment area they’re in, the majority support the big boys. But it’s that ‘us against the world’ mentality that has made them so successful in the past couple of years.

Manager Jose Bordalas deserve immense credit for getting the side into the knockout stages of the Europa League but deserves even more for having his side currently sit in third place in La Liga with the amount of games they have played, not to mention their relatively small size of their squad. It’s a phenomenal achievement.

It’s a no-frills philosophy, streetwise in their approach, Getafe are masters of the dark arts. Knowing how and when to kill opposition momentum is a key trait of theirs and it’s no surprise to see them up there in terms of bookings.

Bordalas adopts a simple 4-4-2 formation, very compact out of possession they love the ball being in front of them and their average possession is only better than neighbours Leganes, but possession counts for little if you’re happy to dominate the game without the ball.

El Geta's three strikers are all over the age of 30 but surprisingly their top scorer is Angel on 10 goals, despite him starting on the bench for the majority of games. The Spaniard has only started six league games but the wily duo of Jaime Mata and Jorge Molina batter and bruise centre halves and the freshness of Angel often wins them games.

Left midfielder Marc Cucurella was an inspired capture after a great season with Eibar last year whilst Jason on the other side offers a threat.

2019 Champions league semi-finalists Ajax are the visitors on Thursday and many will expect them to get through here given their European pedigree. The Amsterdam club are 8/15 best price to qualify, but this will be one almighty test.

Frenkie De Jong and Matias De Ligt both left in the summer and Erik Ten Haag is without wingers Quincy Promes and David Neres for their trip to Spain, defenders Joel Veltman and Perr Schurrs are also absent for De Godenzonen.

I’m always loathed to back away sides in first legs of double legged knockout games. The large majority will be happy to come away with a draw and the stalemate is always a player. With this in mind I’m happy to back the 20/21 quotes on Getafe Double Chance’ and Under 4 Goals by using Bet365’s BetBuilder.

Twenty of 24 Getafe La Liga games have seen three or fewer goals, as well as all of their six group stage Europa League fixtures. What’s more all but one of Ajax's Champions League group stage clashes featured fewer than four goals.

I think Getafe will be keen on keeping another clean sheet here and a narrow home win would not surprise me, however, the BetBuilder allows us to get the draw on side too which is a bonus and it’s still a very backable price.

Eintracht Frankfurt v RB Salzburg | Thursday 20th February 2020, 12:55 | BT Sport

On paper this Germany vs Austria clash looks one of the more tantalising encounters of the Last 32 of the Europa league. It pits together two sides with an attacking ideology and that makes for a promising watch at the Commerzbank Arena on Thursday evening.

Interestingly, it’s Frankfurt who have an Austrian manager in Adi Hutter and since he came to the club the Eagles have been all about goals. It’s no surprise – Hutter was renowned for his rather gung-ho approach when winning the Swiss Super League title with Young Boys a few years back and previous to his spell in Bern he had a one-year stint as manager of Salzburg, so he should know all about the Red Bull-backed club.

It’s fair to say that Salzburg is a breeding ground for not only talented young players but also talented young managers. Hutter joins the likes of Roger Schmidt and Marco Rose as gaffers who have made their name at Die Mozartstadter and current manager Jesse Marsch will no doubt move on to new pastures in the next few years.

Marsch is a rare American manager who made the quite obvious transition from New York Red Bulls, he was the most successful manager in the clubs relatively short history but is held in high regard in the managerial arena.

His side gave it a real good go in a tough Champions League group but their defensive frailties proved their undoing. Going forward they were sublime with the front three of Hwang Hee-Chan, Takumi Minamino and Erling Haaland. It will have been expected that two if not all three would move on in January and the latter both moved to European giants in Liverpool and Borussia Dortmund respectively.

However, no club does forward planning as well as Salzburg. They have players in line to be the next stars with Patson Daka, Sekou Koita and Karim Adeyemi, many won’t have heard of these players but I guarantee you will have in a year or two.

Salzburg will play in the same way they have all season and so will Frankfurt so that leads me straight to the goal markets and the 4/5 (SkyBet) on Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score does appeal.

Salzburg's group stage Champions League game averaged an eye-watering 4.83 goals and even their form in the Europa League in past seasons hold up with nine of their last 10 games in this competition seeing three or more goals.

Looking at Frankfurt, they have seen 16/22 league games go Over 2.5 and six of their last seven Europa League games see overs cop with their last four seeing this bet land. It should be a cracking watch given the ethos of both clubs and hopefully the goals flow at both ends.

Rangers have W21-D2-L1 at Ibrox going back to April, beating both Feyenoord and Porto to nil here in the Europa League.

The Teddy Bears have only conceded 3 strikes at Ibrox in their last 14 here.

an easy over with a 4-1 win

"Looking at Frankfurt, they have seen 16/22 league games go Over 2.5 and six of their last seven Europa League games see overs cop with their last four seeing this bet land. It should be a cracking watch given the ethos of both clubs and hopefully the goals flow at both ends."

Derby v Fulham | Friday 21st February 2020, 2:45 | Sky Sports

Derby and Fulham head into this Friday night clash not getting the results that they’d have wanted last time out. The Rams took the lead at home to Huddersfield, and in the end where slightly fortunate to earn a draw, whilst Scott Parker’s men crumbled to a most surprising 3-0 home setback to Barnsley.

Both therefore have something to prove in front of the TV cameras.

Derby home comforts
Although they did draw, Derby are still going pretty well at the minute. Remember that they are still in the FA Cup and have a mega clash with Manchester United on the horizon, and they’ve lost just twice across their previous 13 in all competitions. Seven ended in victory.

Strong form in front of their own supporters have certainly been Derby’s bedrock this season, as they’d been most disappointing on the road more often than not. Phillip Cocu’s men last lost at Pride Park in December when Millwall did a bit of a smash-and-grab job. That along with an August loss to Bristol City remain their only losses at home in the current campaign.

Therefore, if you’re going to see the best of Derby this season then it’ll generally be in game like this; at home.

One negative aspect about facing an opponent such as Fulham is that Derby have struggled against the top sides at this level this season. They’ve played the current top-half teams a total of 14 occasions, and only won two. Both wins were only by a one-goal margin too, and they’ve shipped three goals to Bristol City, Brentford and the earlier season meeting at Fulham.

Fulham with a point to prove
Undoubtedly Barnsley were a coupon buster for many last weekend as they earned one of the biggest shocks of the campaign in winning at Craven Cottage. This was 3-0 as well, so not exactly a 1-0 with their backs against the wall. It was a great display from the Tykes, but equally a disappointment from the Cottagers.

So much so, Parker apologised to the fans afterwards, stating he was ‘shocked’, ‘gutted’ and ‘bitterly disappointed’. The players you’d like to think will have felt the same, and it also meant Barnsley have done the double over Fulham this season, so maybe they’re just a bit of a bogey side.

Nevertheless, Fulham need to bounce back, as not too far away they’ll face a run of games versus promotion rivals Leeds, Brentford, Bristol City and Preston; so they really need something against mid-table Derby.

Fulham’s issue this season has been against teams lower in the table, having failed to score in both meetings with Barnsley, whilst also failing to net in games with Stoke, Charlton and Middlesbrough at various points. They therefore won’t necessarily be too overawed travelling to Derby, who will play to win, and that should suit Fulham, who of course will do the same.

The betting angle
There are two different bets I like for this game, and the good news is you won’t have to wait too long for them to both settle hopefully!

Fulham had a day to forget against Barnsley, and you get bet your bottom dollar that Parker will emphasise the right messages in training in the build-up to this one. I really fancy them to come out the blocks all guns blazing, as they won’t have been happy with last Saturday.

Fulham To Score First at 1/1 (Marathon) and Fulham Leading After 30 Minutes at 3/1 (Coral) will be the way we go for this one. We can’t totally discount Derby as they’re in decent form, especially at home, and will hold somewhat outside claims of the play-offs so they really need to win this.

Fulham need the win too, and I hold them the much stronger and more convincing outfit. In fact, I fancy them more on the back of a bad display and results versus lowly Barnsley, and I just feel Derby will be unable to weather the early Cottagers storm, most likely headlined by Aleksandar Mitrovic.

Paderborn alert this afternoon !
GL

what a combination on Paderborn, combined with the BEST OVER 2' squad, it easily sailed OVER !
GL

The early kick off is arguably the biggest game of the weekend, as Chelsea face the possibility of dropping out of the top four. Tottenham are the visitors on Saturday, with Jose Mourinho looking to get one over on his former player Frank Lampard. Neither team come into this game in great shape due to injuries. The hosts are missing a number of key players and will have to rely on the old guard in attack to provide the goals. Meanwhile, Spurs have a forward crisis as well, with Son Heung-min and Harry Kane on the sidelines. It could be a very tight game and a win for either side could prove a turning point in the battle for Champions League football.

Chelsea will feel very unfortunate following Monday night’s defeat to Manchester United. On another day, Michy Batshuayi is more clinical and Harry Maguire receives a red card for violent conduct. However, they didn’t manage to get anything from the game and the pressure increases on Lampard. There have been lots of positives to take from the first half of the season, but the recent run of form has been troubling. Since their win against Tottenham in December, they have won only two of their following eight Premier League matches. They need to find consistency again, especially at Stamford Bridge. The Blues can’t afford to lose on Saturday.

A victory on Saturday will see Tottenham move above Chelsea into 4th position. Considering their lowly position when Jose Mourinho took the job, that would represent a huge landmark for the new manager. Following the move to their new stadium, it is important for Spurs to consolidate themselves as Champions League regulars. This will allow the club to continue growing organically. The recent injuries to Son Heung-min and Harry Kane have put a dent into their hopes, with the attack looking limited against RB Leipzig. Despite a disappointing result in the Champions League, the focus will be on the league and improvement is needed if they are to beat their rivals.

INTERESTING STATS
Chelsea have lost seven games at home this season across all competitions. This is their most home losses in a campaign since the 1994-95 campaign.

Last weekend, Son Heung-min scored the winner after 93 minutes and 34 seconds. This is the latest winning goal in a Premier League game since August 2009.

KEY MEN
Giroud


Olivier Giroud has been sidelined by Frank Lampard this season, having played only 214 minutes of Premier League football. The Frenchman was linked to several clubs during the January window, but Chelsea’s failure to sign anyone led to the striker remaining at Stamford Bridge. His cameo performance against Manchester United showed that he still has something to offer at the club. The French international was much more effective than Michy Batshuayi, as he managed to hold up the ball and get his team further up the pitch. This is crucial if they are to get Pedro and Willian into goal-scoring positions. Although his goal was disallowed, it underlined the threat that he does possess. Jose Mourinho will be very envious that Lampard has such a quality player in reserve. Tammy Abraham may be back to start this weekend, but Giroud is likely to have a part to play. In such a tight game, he has the ability to make a key contribution to his side. Tottenham have been fragile at the back, keeping three clean sheets across all competitions since Mourinho was appointed. The 33-year-old striker can cause chaos and he could be key on Saturday, whether he is used as a starter or an impact sub.

Lucas Moura

Lucas Moura will have huge responsibility on his shoulders, as he will be required to lead the attack across multiple competitions. There have been flashes of brilliance during his time at Tottenham, but this year has been an underwhelming one for him. At the time of writing, he has scored four goals in the Premier League. This will need to improve in the absence of Son and Kane. Although Spurs also have Dele Alli, Steven Bergwijn and Erik Lamela, it will be the Brazilian that is asked to play as a central striker. His pace in behind can be a real weapon, as he showed during last season’s Champions League semi final against Ajax. The hat-trick in the second leg was exceptional and was the reason why the Premier League side progressed. Chelsea leave a lot of space in their defensive third and the movement of Lucas will be a real issue for them if he performs well. This is the 27-year-old’s opportunity to secure a long-term role under Mourinho. He needs to grab it, starting with a good performance against Chelsea.

TEAM NEWS
Christian Pulisic remains on the sidelines, while Callum Hudson-Odoi is expected to miss out on Saturday. Pedro and Willian could be given starts again. Andreas Christensen and N’Golo Kante went off injured against Manchester United, therefore they are both doubts. Olivier Giroud is pressing for a start, while Tammy Abraham may return.

The major blow for the visitors is that Son Heung-min has been ruled out for a long period with a fractured arm. Mourinho has suggested that he may not play again this season. He joins Harry Kane and Moussa Sissoko with long-term injuries. Lucas Moura, Dele Alli and Steven Bergwijn are expected to start in attack.

VERDICT
It will be a very nervy affair on Saturday, as a loss would be very damaging to either side. The attacking injuries of both teams suggest that there will be a lack of goals. However, neither are reliable at the back and that could mean that there are goals. Chelsea look to be a more settled team with a defined style. The personnel may not be Lampard’s first choice, but they are more comfortable in the system. Meanwhile, Tottenham need to change their style following the injury to Son, as they don’t have a natural goal-scoring forward. The pressure will be on Lucas Moura to lead the line. It’s difficult to back either side in their current guise. A draw looks a good bet.

Chelsea 1-1 Tottenham

Chelsea v Tottenham | Saturday 22nd February 2020, 7:30 | BT Sport

A fiery London derby kicks-off the Premier League weekend as Jose Mourinho returns to Stamford Bridge for the first time as Spurs manager. He will be hoping to put their hoodoo at the Bridge to an end, it’s the one place they always seem to struggle to get a result.

We all remember that it’s the location where Leicester sealed the title and ended Spurs’ hope of finishing top of the pile back in 2016. However, Chelsea aren’t a side that are inspiring any kind of continuous form, rendering them an almost impossible to back at the minute.

The games the Blues have won at home have largely been ones you’d expect them to win. They’ve stilled failed to beat a top half side at home and they’ve also lost to Bournemouth, Southampton and West Ham on home soil. They just can’t get any consistency and Frank Lampard has looked visibly irked at the lack of transfer business in the January window.

Lampard has used that to fuel his narrative that Chelsea are outsiders for the top 4. It’s not really something that I’d subscribe to but he’s taken a leaf out of Mourinho’s book by getting his excuses in early.

Tammy Abraham could be back for this one which is a boost but N’Golo Kante will miss out which is a blow. They need a bit more craft in the final third and play with greater purpose than they did against Manchester United last week.

I’m shocked that Lampard hasn’t utilised World Cup winning striker Olivier Giroud more often, the Frenchman makes everyone around him play better and offers a much greater aerial threat in the box. Lampard has remained stubborn though, just as he did at Derby, and refused to play a striker who is clearly better than what they’ve currently got starting.

Spurs are coming here on the back of a dismal home defeat to Leipzig in the Champions League. It was one they deserved, the North Londoners conceded an Expected Goals (xG) tally of 2.2 and they’ll be happy in the end that the scoreline wasn’t a bigger margin but Mourinho bit back at the haters in his post match press conference. Not like him, is it?

To be fair to Mou he is without his two key attackers in Harry Kane and Heung Min-Son and those absentees go a long way to understanding why Spurs are priced as big as 4/1 here. I’d still argue that is a big price between two pretty equal teams. I do think the draw could be a play here though at 3/1, I think Spurs will take a point and Chelsea at home are far from a sure thing. I think there are better ways in mind.