Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund | Saturday 22nd February 2020, 9:30

Borussia Dortmund will travel to Werder Bremen this Saturday fresh off the back of their superb Champions League win over PSG, whilst Bremen will be hoping to avoid their fifth straight Bundesliga loss. In simple terms, Werder are hopeless right now. They have only managed to avoid defeat twice in their last 12 Bundesliga outings.

To avoid relegation, you need your home ground to somewhat resemblance a fortress. However, the hosts do not have that, having only managed to pick up a depressing five points from their 10 matches here this season.

Dortmund have been flying since the second half of the season began. In the same 12 matches where Bremen have lost 10 games, Dortmund have picked up 23 points, winning seven out of their last 10 league fixtures.

BVB boast the most prolific attack in the league and they’re travelling to the division’s leakiest defence here so we should be able to count on Dortmund having the confidence to brush their opponents aside. Bremen have lost five of their last eight Bundesliga fixtures by more than a one-goal margin so Erling Haaland and Jaydon Sancho should be licking their lips.

Take Dortmund to cover the -1 handicap

BEST O2.5 TEAMS

91% Dortmund
86% Bayern
83% Atalanta
83% Cove Rangers
82% Mainz
78% Brechin
77% Bremen
77% Leipzig
77% Man City
76% Luton
75% Sassuolo
75% Villarreal
73% Albion
73% Aston Villa
73% Hertha Berlin
73% Frankfurt
72% Monaco
72% Stenhousemuir

BEST BTTS TEAMS

79% Bologna
79% Partick
76% Nice
75% Betis
75% Villarreal
74% Brechin
73% Wolves
72% Amiens
72% Wimbledon
71% Atalanta
71% Crawley
70% Crewe
70% Morton
70% West Brom

Last five meetings Chelsea/Tottenham

22 Dec 2019: Spurs 0-2 Chelsea (Premier League)

27 Feb 2019: Chelsea 2-0 Spurs (Premier League)

24 Jan 2019: Chelsea 2-1 Spurs (League Cup)

08 Jan 2019: Spurs 1-0 Chelsea (League Cup)

24 Nov 2018: Spurs 3-1 Chelsea (Premier League)

Chelsea did it again !!

Draw
+328
Manchester City vs Leicester City

SHEFFIELD UNITED
-115

BURNLEY FC
+121

Draw
+307
Aston Villa vs Southampton FC

1 parlay of 4 Teams
Risk: $2.00 Win: $141.95

Serie A have postponed three games because of the Coronavirus.

The games taking place in Lombardy and Veneto are affected:
– Atalanta vs. Sassuolo
– Verona vs. Cagliari
– Inter Sampdoria

Manchester United v Watford | Saturday 23rd February 2020, 9 am

For much of this season, I have tried to oppose goals in Manchester United's games. A common approach has been to back the Both Teams To Score: No angle, but having seen them draw 1-1 when doing exactly that on Thursday night, I am going to take an alternative route when they entertain Watford on Sunday.
United have drawn 1-1 on five occasions this season and I wouldn't be at all surprised if they made it half a dozen against the Hornets. I do, however, struggle to see either side scoring two goals, so at a similar price to the BTTS – No option, I will take the 10/11 on Under 2.5 Goals at Unibet.
This has landed in 16 of United's 26 league games this season and five of Watford's 10 under Nigel Pearson.
Having gained 13 points from their first six games under Pearson's guidance – including a 2-0 victory over United – the Hertfordshire side have just two points from their last four matches, having lost two of them from winning positions.
A point here will be an excellent result for Watford and while I think Pearson will set them up to be a threat on the counter attack, he will not want to expose his fairly immobile backline to the pace United possess.
United have struggled to break teams down at home for most of the season, with Burnley and Crystal Palace recording victories at Old Trafford and Aston Villa also managing to earn a point.
Ultimately, I think Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's side may win this encounter but I don't think it will be pretty.
Between them, Solskjaer and Pearson have seen 21 of their 36 league matches see two goals or fewer scored and that strike rate – 58% – suggests that

Arsenal v Everton | Sunday 23rd February 2020, 11:30 | Sky Sports

Arsenal host Everton on Sunday as Mikel Arteta looks to build on an impressive second half performance against Newcastle last weekend, as well as an away win in the Europa League against Olympiacos.

Alexandre Lacazette made it two in two games after netting the winner in Greece, whilst back-to-back clean sheets display improvements at the back for Arteta’s outfit.

Everton have been a revelation under Carlo Ancelotti, and with only a defeat to Manchester City in the league since the Italian took over, the Toffees head to London full of confidence and belief they can cause the Gunners problems.

Sat ninth, one position above Arsenal, victory for the Merseysiders would give any European ambitions a real push, and pile the pressure on Arsenal in the race for continental qualifying slots, and so it should be an interesting encounter on Sunday afternoon between two in-form sides.

Arsenal will attempt to dominate possession
A tactically interesting game to unpick, a lot has changed since the drab 0-0 draw between the sides earlier in the season with both teams undergoing managerial changes, and evolutions in style. As a result, I don’t believe too much can be read into that first meeting, and it should hopefully mean a much more open and attacking affair on Sunday.

Arsenal look to dominate possession under Arteta, and they will try to do so again, with Everton often looking to sit deep and counter against the top sides.

A feature of Arsenal’s play under Arteta is the high positioning of the full-backs, particularly Bukayo Saka down the left, and it is these areas which should see a lot of joy for both sides.

Sitting deep and inviting on the Gunners’ wingers and full backs to push forward, it will leave space in behind for Everton to exploit, and this was a feature of Newcastle’s tactics in the first half last weekend, and highlighted how Arsenal can become exposed to the break.

With Hector Bellerin and Saka pushed high, it leaves space up against a backline often found wanting for pace, and the Everton wingers will look to exploit.

Everton to exploit the flanks in transition
Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s hold up play and tenacity up front has been a revelation since Marco Silva’s sacking, and he and Brazilian counterpart Richarlison will be confident they can cause problems for Shkodran Mustafi and David Luiz, and it will be their hold up play that allows them to bring the wingers into play.

Who Everton opt to start out wide awaits to be seen, but they all appear to fit the same mould of attacker, possessing pace and a willingness to run in behind the backline, and this will be how Everton will look to target Arsenal.

Dani Ceballos returned against Newcastle after a long layoff, and whilst he was tactically well suited to a game where the opposition sat off and possessed little attacking quality in central areas, he, alongside Mesut Ozil and Granit Xhaka, could struggle to cope with the energy on the break of the Toffees.

Fouls in transition of coping with the box-to-box midfielders would be no surprise for Ceballos and Xhaka, and are certainly ones to look out for on the card markets.

Expect overlaps from Arsenal’s full backs
As touched on above, Arsenal do look to target sides out wide and the overlaps they can create will be crucial to breaking down the Everton defence, and whilst it can leave them open at the back, they will look to target Everton’s wingers, who can at times be found defensively wanting.

Theo Walcott, if fit, has been targeted by sides in the past, and this stands out as an area where Arsenal can exploit with Saka.

Saka pushes on and allows Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to drift inside, and if not tracked well, the young full back will cause the Everton backline a whole host of problems. The 18-year-old’s attacking threat cannot be underestimated, with seven assists across the Premier League and Europa League, as well as two goals, and this is certainly an area that Everton will be wary of.

In central areas, Everton will have to try avoid being overrun in midfield, with the 4-4-2 potentially leaving them outnumbered, and the pressing role of Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison will be crucial to enabling the Arsenal midfield do not have too much time on the ball.

Stifling Xhaka could frustrate the hosts
With Xhaka looking to pick the ball up deep from defenders, I’d expect to see Ancelotti place a player to man mark the Swiss midfielder and stifle this outlet, and if they can effectively do this, like Olympiacos did for long periods, it means that Luiz and Mustafi will see the ball for long periods, and as a result make it harder to create.

How Arteta alleviates this will be key, and against Newcastle he did so by dropping the more forward-thinking Ceballos deeper, but against Olympiacos, his side lacked the secondary output for long periods, as Matteo Guendouzi’s energy and pressing was favoured to help keep it solid, and this is something to watch out for.

It should be an entertaining game on Sunday, and one with two in-form teams well equipped to exploit the weaknesses of one another.

The betting angles
Unlike the first clash between the two sides, I do expect this to be a much more open, attacking affair, and I think both sides are well equipped to cause one another problems defensively.

Despite their back-to-back clean sheets, Arsenal are still vulnerable to conceding, particularly on the counter, whilst Everton could see themselves overrun in midfield, whilst the wide threat from Pepe, Saka and Aubameyang can’t be overlooked.

Priced at 1/1 (Bet365), I’m happy to take Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score, with a thrilling match anticiapted.

Alaves v Athletic Bilbao | Sunday 23rd February 2020, 8:00 | La Liga TV

Alaves entertain Athletic Bilbao in Sunday’s Basque derby date in front of a sold-out Mendizorrotza and there’s reason to believe the hosts are underrated for the expected feisty fixture. El Glorioso have taken W5-D4-L3 from 12 home La Liga outings this term with all three losses arriving against top-six sides in Spain.

Asier Garitano’s group have proven stubborn opposition in home turf with all three losses arriving by the narrowest of margins and Alaves’ W5-D3-L0 efforts against bottom-half dwellers suggests they can at least match an out-of-form Athletic outfit that’s failed to take top honours in each of their last nine (W0-D5-L4) league encounters in 2019/20.

Les Leones have registered a solitary success on their travels (W1-D7-L4) and racked up a paltry average of 0.75 goals per-game on the road. Gaizka Garitano’s men are generating the fewest open play opportunities in the division according to Expected Goals (xG), and also sit inside the bottom-three for shots and on-target attempts in games as guests.

The visitors might be on the cusp of qualifying for the Copa del Rey final but the Bilbao boys remain desperately uninspiring outside of Bilboa. Athletic have generated less than 0.50 xG from open play in all bar two away days, failing to even score in 11/24 (46%) of road trips since Gaizka Garitano took charge, tabling a miserly tally of five triumphs in the process.

Alaves are functional rather than flashy, and won’t win prizes for aesthetics, however the hosts are tricky customers at their Basque base, giving away just 0.75 goals per-game here under Asier Garitano’s watch. El Glorioso have also allowed opponents just 0.50 xG from open play when excluding the visits of the Madrid pair, highlighting their robust attitude.

So I’m happy to oppose Athletic as favourites for Sunday’s showdown in a low-scoring duel. The duo have combined to see just one of their collective 24 home/away matches feature at least four goals – 17/24 (71%) producing Under 2.5 Goals

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Liverpool were left seething at Atletico Madrid’s tactics in their midweek defeat at the Wanda Metropolitano, and have vowed to make the atmosphere at Anfield for the return leg even more menacing. However, it’s safe to say their home won’t be rocking quite as hard for this Monday night clash.


The Reds have all but won the league and it would take a monumentally disastrous string of results to prevent that from happening.


They remain unbeaten though and will want to keep that streak going against lowly West Ham, who are now winless in their last seven across all competitions (D2-L5), including an embarrassing home defeat to Championship West Brom in the FA Cup.


With that said, they haven’t had the easiest run of fixtures, playing each of the top three as well as in-form Everton and Sheffield United, though that’s not really going to help them here.


Despite their poor run, Moyes’ men have managed to keep games quite tight. They’ve now seen a maximum of two goals in six of their last eight games across all competitions, with the exceptions coming away to Leicester and when letting a 3-1 lead slip hosting Brighton in their last home game.


Liverpool have seen the same in six of their last seven at home, winning 1-0 or 2-0 three times apiece in that time as they’ve failed to really put teams to bed.

West Ham +2.25 Handicap


Jurgen Klopp’s men have been exceptional at the back of late, keeping seven clean sheets on the bounce at Anfield when including FA Cup clashes against Everton and Shrewsbury Town, though defeat midweek seems to have them slightly rattled.


Jarrod Bowen is likely to come into the attack having made his debut as an 80th minute substitute against Man City, and with Michail Antonio an ever present danger, it’s not inconceivable that the Hammers might find the net at some point over the 90, though we see nothing to suggest they can be the side to topple the league leaders.


While the multibet doesn’t offer up anywhere near the kind of value we’d hope for this clash, the handicap looks to be the way to go.


The London side have only lost two of their last 25 matches in the league by more than two goals, and with Liverpool only netting three once in their last eight, we’re happy to get behind the Hammers.