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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
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Premier League, Bundesliga, Weekend Soccer

we have a full weekend ahead of us !
GL

Old Post 02-14-20 12:08 AM
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msudogs
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Wolves v Leicester | Friday 14th February 2020, 3:00 | Sky Sports

The Premier League returns from its mini winter break with an intriguing Friday night contest at Molineux between two of the Premier League’s most progressive clubs in recent seasons.

Both these sides have had decent seasons in relation to their respective ambitions but have at times looked jaded so the rest will have been welcomed by both managers. It should have allowed time for key players in both camps to recover from knocks incurred over the busy festive and new year period so the likes of Wilfred Ndidi and Adama Traore will be touch-and-go to make the cut for this one.

Assuming Traore is fit, it will be a busy evening for Leicester’s full-backs. Although the Spaniard has primarily played on the right wing to devastating effect, in more recent matches he’s started the game wide-left so we could be in line for a titanic contest between Traore – the unstoppable force – and Ricardo Pereira – the immovable object.

Considering how often opposition full-backs have had to be physical to even attempt to stop the winger, the tackles markets have to be looked into. At the time of writing, Ben Chillwell is Evens with Coral for 2+ tackles and that’s great value in my view.

The England left-back hasn’t won the ball in the challenge as much as his Portuguese counterpart on the opposite flank but he’s successfully made two or more tackles in his last four matches so I’m willing to take that price on. Just adding Pereira to make 4+ tackles to this with the same bookie in a BuildYourBet double gives odds of 9/4 which also looks appealing.

Wolves have certainly enjoyed playing under the lights at home this campaign, playing 12 evening kick-offs and recording some memorable results along the way including a 3-2 comeback win over current champions Manchester City. In those 12 games, the Old Gold have registered W7-D2-L2 which is an impressive record and shows that this talented squad of players are spurred on for the big occasion, something that Leicester have struggled with recently.

Old Post 02-14-20 08:28 AM
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HoustonFan
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Played BTTS in this one




"Just Got Paid" -- ZZ Top
2008,2009 NCAA HOF Battle of the Brackets Champion

Old Post 02-14-20 02:31 PM
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msudogs
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BEST O2.5 TEAMS

90% Dortmund
86% Bayern
86% Mainz
83% Atalanta
83% Cove
80% Man City
78% Brechin
78% Luton
78% Sassuolo
76% Albion
76% Bremen
76% Leipzig
75% Monaco
75% Stenhousemuir
74% Juventus
74% Villarreal
73% Ross County
72% Aston Villa

Old Post 02-15-20 11:52 AM
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msudogs
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BEST BTTS TEAMS

83% Bologna
79% Nice
79% Partick
78% Betis
76% Wolves
74% Brechin
74% Villarreal
73% Crawley
73% Wimbledon
71% Amiens
71% Leipzig
71% Stenhousemuir
70% Alloa
70% Atalanta
70% Cagliari
70% Juventus
70% Morton
70% Napoli
70% Sassuolo
70% Ebbsfleet

Old Post 02-15-20 11:52 AM
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msudogs
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Saints have collected the fewest home points and wins in the Premier League this season (W3-D2-L7).

Burnley have W7-D4-L4 against teams in 8th and below.

Old Post 02-15-20 01:42 PM
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msudogs
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Norwich v Liverpool | Saturday 15th February 2020, | Sky Sports

Given that Liverpool have amassed 55 more points than Saturday's opponents in just 25 games, it is no surprise that they go to Carrow Road as overwhelming favourites.

While some performance data metrics suggest that Jurgen Klopp’s men are slightly fortunate to have such a lead at the top of the Premier League table, there can be little doubt that they are comfortably the best side in England at this moment.

Liverpool’s away record this term reads W11-D1-L0, with the Anfield side having scored 25 goals and conceded just six. At the start of the season they were struggling to keep clean sheets – particularly at home – but since conceding twice to Everton on 4th December, they have allowed just one goal in 10 Premier League matches.

All this may make my selection all the more surprising, as I like the look of Both Teams To Score at 20/21 with Boylesports. As stated earlier, the underlying data suggests that Liverpool have been a tad fortunate this season. Indeed, across those 10 matches, while they have been mainly dominant, their opposition have managed 84 shots, 25 of which were on-target so it is remarkable that they’ve only conceded one goal.

Tottenham, Watford, Southampton and Wolves (twice) will all feel that they should have scored more so while Liverpool are an excellent side, they are not impregnable.

Their opponents this weekend, Norwich, have scored in 11 of their 12 home league games this season, including three times against Manchester City and twice against Chelsea and Arsenal. Moreover, BTTS has landed in 10 of these matches as well and half of Liverpool’s away matches.

For all their faults, Norwich do create chances so I expect them to find the net here.

As an aside, I cannot ignore the 8/1 with BetVictor on a 2-1 victory for the away side. Liverpool have won by this scoreline in five of their 12 matches on their travels. Ultimately, I think it will be another enterprising but ultimately frustrating night for fans of Norwich, so this price looks too good to turn down.

Old Post 02-15-20 04:34 PM
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Gush
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Denmark 8 am
Silkeborg/Aalborg over 2.5 -144

Old Post 02-16-20 01:52 PM
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msudogs
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Bundesliga

Mainz v Schalke | Sunday 15th February 2020, 12:00 | BT Sport

Robin Quaison is currently on a mission to steer Mainz away from the relegation zone. After scoring his second hat-trick of the season, the Swedish international notched his 11th goal in 20 matches this season.

Football is a curious game. Sometimes players can be at several clubs and not make a huge impact but can show glimpses of immense quality. Josep Ilicic, for example, has been around Italy for a long time until he exploded onto the scene for Atalanta last season. Bruno Fernandes has just made a big-money move to Manchester United after breaking records at Sporting last season, but he struggled to make a huge impact in Serie A.

This is the case with Quaison, as he struggled to make a serious impact in Italy with Palermo, joining Mainz for a small fee which went unnoticed. The winger, who has shades of Serge Gnabry when he plays, has been superb this season in a team which hardly inspires most the game.

With the ability to play both centrally and out wide, Quaison uses his stocky frame and quick feet to dominate his opponent, which was evident in his superb performance last weekend.

With form being everything in football, I believe another impressive performance could be on the cards. To aid this, Schalke has Kenny, Sane, Kabak and Caligiuri all unavailable for Sunday's clash, which will undoubtedly help the Swedish internationals case to get on the scoresheet this weekend

Old Post 02-16-20 01:54 PM
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msudogs
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Recent Form


Villa have a tough spell coming up with their next five fixtures in all competitions seeing them take on Spurs, Southampton, Man City, Leicester and Chelsea.


Defeat on the road at Bournemouth a fortnight ago was a major disappointment, but Dean Smith’s men remain outside the relegation zone, while their previous two outings saw them down both Watford and Leicester 2-1 on home turf in the Premier League and Carabao Cup respectively.


They’ll hope to make that three in a row at Villa Park following this clash, but those wins over the Hornets and the Foxes was just the second time where they’ve strung together back-to-back victories on home turf this season.


Various successes over the past few months have been intermingled with defeats when Liverpool, Leicester, Southampton and Man City came to town, though of course three of those are the clear top three in the league, while the Saints were just entering some form at the time.

Both Aston Villa And Spurs To Score


Whilst Villa shipped 15 goals across those four losses, they still also registered in each of them and as the top scorers amongst the bottom-half of the table, should be aiming to cause their visitors’ backline some hairy moments on Sunday.


Former Spurs target Jack Grealish has been in superb form for the Villans and thoroughly deserves an England call up at this point, while the loss of summer signing Wesley at the turn of the year hasn’t been all defining, with the striker only netting five league goals across the first 21 matches of the campaign anyway.


Jose Mourinho’s side aren’t in the habit of keeping clean sheets either, with just two in 14 appearances since early November in all competitions.


Even low-scoring Championship outfit Middlesbrough managed to net in both FA Cup clashes last month, while both teams have scored in seven of Spurs’ nine meetings with bottom-six outfits this term, including the reverse of this fixture.


Although Spurs appear a fairly short price, this can be explained by the consistency with which the Villans have lost games against top-half outfits.


The hosts have lost eight of their last nine winless such matches in the league, and so while we think they can claim a goal, we wouldn’t be confident of backing Villa to get something from this game.

Old Post 02-16-20 01:58 PM
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Aston Villa have W5-D2-L2 at home when excluding the top-three, scoring in 11/12 at Villa Park.

Spurs have won just 2 of their last 18 away Premier League games, losing 11.

Old Post 02-16-20 02:44 PM
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Arsenal v Newcastle | Sunday 16th February 2020, 11:30 | Sky Sports

Arsenal host Newcastle on Super Sunday as the Gunners look to build on an unbeaten run under Mikel Arteta, and start to convert a run of league draws into victories.

Facing the Magpies, who themselves are unbeaten since New Year’s Day, will be no easy task, with Newcastle able to welcome a number of players back from injury, as well as introduce a host of new signings into the squad.

Defensive injuries for Arsenal will give the Toon hope, with their record against the traditional top-six particularly noteworthy this term. A win over Oxford has put Newcastle into the 5th Round of the FA Cup, and consistently picking up points means the mood has improved drastically since the duos meeting on the first day of the season.

Although the underlying statistics don’t make for great reading for Steve Bruce’s side, their knack of outperforming the data is unheralded in the Premier League this season. So could it be another game where the Magpies frustrate top opposition and snatch something?

Newcastle’s predictability
Newcastle have become a predictable side to unpick tactically this season, with Bruce willing to stick to his tried and tested 5-4-1 formation, even against lower-league opposition, and coming up against a side that look to dominate the ball, it will be no surprise to see the Toon chief approach this game in a similar fashion once more.

Averaging just 39% possession this season, Bruce has approached games against top teams in the same vain, but despite riding their luck in some, they have come out with some fantastic results, and will be hoping to frustrate the Gunners once again.

Wins against Chelsea, Tottenham and Manchester United, coupled with a draw against Manchester City, cannot be overlooked, and despite the underlying statistics in most of these games painting a different picture, Newcastle have come out with creditable results, and the visitors are well equipped to cause Arsenal problems.

The 5-4-1 invites the opposition on, and in particular they look to invite the full backs on, leaving space in behind for their own wing backs and wingers to exploit. This should lead to an intriguing battle down the left flank for Newcastle, with Hector Bellerin and one of Nicolas Pepe or Gabriel Martinelli tasked with creating, but also stopping the threat of Allan Saint-Maximin and Danny Rose.

Toon’s attacks down the flanks
Bellerin’s pace and Martinelli’s defensive ability does mean they are well equipped to cope with the Frenchman in particular down this flank, and should make for an intriguing battle, whilst also throwing up some potential interest on the tackles market, particularly for Arsenal.

Saint-Maximin’s return from injury offers Newcastle a key outlet on the break, as well as giving the Magpies the element of the unknown in attack. His performance against Oxford encapsulated this, and despite this being against League One opposition, the French winger should be full of confidence and will certainly cause the Arsenal backline concerns.

Miguel Almiron will operate down the right, and he will look to exploit spaces both out wide and centrally with the Paraguayan, alongside the box-to-box midfielders in central areas, expected to provide the attacking link to the target man up front, and avoid him being isolated. This role will fall to one of Andy Carroll and Joelinton, depending on fitness.

Whomever starts will up against David Luiz and most probably Shkodran Mustafi at the back, either/or will be raring to go for a physical battle. Although criticised at times, it can be a thankless task for Joelinton up top, and he is still only second to Carroll regarding aerial duels won up front, managing 5.5 for the Magpies this season.

Combating Arsenal’s threats
Injuries down the right for Newcastle has seen Isaac Hayden start as the right wing back, and his more reserved approach may help Bruce’s side up against Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, who cut a frustrated figure against Burnley last time out.

Although Aubameyang’s pace in behind was able to cause problems against a defensive line that at times pushed high, he was wasteful in front of goal, and the same kind of space in behind won’t be seen on Sunday, and this means that the creative job will come from those playing deeper.

With Newcastle lining up in a 5-4-1, the midfield trio in behind Alexandre Lacazette, Aubameyang and Martinelli will be crucial for Arsenal, and Mesut Ozil will be fundamental to any hopes the Gunners have of breaking down this compact backline. Concerningly for Arteta, Ozil struggled to impact the game last time out against Burnley, despite having the space to drift out wide, as well as impact the play in between the lines.

Visitors to sit deep
Despite his struggles, I expect Arteta to stick with the German attacker, and it will open up an interesting battle in the middle of the park between the two sets of deeper central midfielders. Granit Xhaka will be playing further forward, as he and either Lucas Torreira and Matteo Guendouzi look to unpick the Newcastle defence.

Xhaka will be picking the ball up from the two centre backs with little pressing until the ball moves into the Newcastle half, so he could rack up the passes when considering this market, whilst any lose touches from the attackers in these areas will be pounced on by the covering holding midfielders for Newcastle, so the tackles markets will be worth consideration.

Newcastle will be looking to sit and frustrate Arsenal, before utilising the counter, as has been the case in a number of their matches. Arsenal will need to play with a quick tempo, but also need to be patient against a resolute side, whilst being careful not to overcommit players out of frustration and leave them open.

It makes for an intriguing clash, but what subsequently appeals on the betting?

The betting angles
I expect a cagey affair, and as touched on above, it will take a patient approach from the Gunners to break down the Magpies. However, I do expect them to have enough.

Available at 4/5 (Coral), Arsenal to win and Under 4.5 Goals is most tempting, as even if going behind early, Bruce has shown a willingness to sit in and manage the game until late on, and this could perfectly suit Arsenal.

Despite Arsenal understandably being favourites for this clash, the Gunners are still allowing sides plenty of shooting opportunities, and I believe there is some value to be had in the Newcastle shot markets. Over 15 shots against per-game is worrying for the hosts, and does suggest that Newcastle should get opportunities against this fragile backline.

Old Post 02-16-20 05:04 PM
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