Where the action is: Public loves Ducks, sharps betting big home dog

Thursday night is a huge night for college football fans. Bettors are treated to two key conference clashes featuring Top 25 teams. The Oregon Ducks come to Palo Alto for a showdown with the Stanford Cardinal in the later of these two games.

We talk with Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker for CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming in on this game and where the odds will end up come kickoff:

Oregon Ducks at Stanford Cardinal – Open: +10, Move: +11.5, Move: +11

Oregon can pave its road to the BCS title game with a win in Palo Alto Thursday. The Cardinal appear to be the Ducks' lone competition in the Pac-12, but are still double-digit dogs at home. Early action played the road favorite, spiking this line at Oregon -11.5 before wiseguys bought back Stanford and trimmed the spread half a point to +11.

“So far, 75 percent of the action is on the Ducks and I wouldn't be surprised if we go back to 11.5, but at this point we like our position,” says Stewart.

As for the total in this Pac-12 standoff, books opened this number as low as 60 points and have watched the over/under climb to as high as 62. Stewart says for a game of this size, action on the total has been relatively quiet.

“We expected to see way more Over action than we've seen. We opened this total 62 and we've booked really good two-way action and we haven't moved our number all week,” he says. “Sharps might be waiting to see this total rise a bit more, but at this point we like our number and there's no reason to move so the sharps might not get involved with this total.”

ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Clippers are 0-10 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since Oct 31, 2010 with at most one day of rest when their DPS was minus 15 points or less in their previous game and their DPA was not 15 points or less.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Nuggets are 10-0-1 OU (11.59 ppg) since Jan 06, 2006 at home with at most one day of rest after a game at home in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was less than four.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Nuggets are 0-8 ATS (-9.31 ppg) since Apr 12, 2013 after Javale McGee scored fewer than 10 points.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The Lakers are 9-0 OU (12.56 ppg) since Mar 31, 1996 on the road with at most one day of rest after a game in which they committed at least 10 fewer fouls than their season-todate average.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- The Rockets are 8-0 ATS (10.38 ppg) since Nov 12, 2012 after Chandler Parsons scored fewer than 10 points in a win.

-- The Rockets are 0-8 OU (-9.75 ppg) since Nov 14, 2010 with at least one day of rest after a game in which less than 45% of their baskets were assisted.

Where the action is: Are sharps inflating OU-Baylor line to buy back Sooners?

Thursday night is a huge night for college football fans. Bettors are treated to two key conference clashes featuring Top 25 teams. The Oklahoma Sooners visit the Baylor Bears in Waco for a Big 12 bash in the first of these two marquee matchups.

We talk with Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker for CarbonSports.ag, about the action coming in on this game and where the odds will end up come kickoff:

Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears – Open: -13.5, Move: -15

Baylor has cruised through a soft schedule so far and meets its first true test in Oklahoma Thursday. Early action was on the home side, with sharps surprisingly grabbing Baylor and jacking up the spread as high as -15 at some markets.

CarbonSports.ag is currently sitting at BU -14.5, with good two-way action on this Big 12 battle. However, Stewart has a sneaking suspicion that the early action from wiseguys was meant to drive this line over the key number and that they will eventually buy back the Sooners before kickoff.

“I believe the early sharp action was made at -14 because they felt this line would close higher due to the public betting up Baylor like they have all week,” Stewart tells Covers. “So they lay the -14 and can either get off later in the week or keep their bet at a good number. At this point I have no clue, I just know we're booking this game dead even so far which is great for us.”

Stewart does say the book is a little scared when it comes to the total for Thursday’s game in Waco. The number opened as low as 72.5 at some markets and has climbed as high as 74.5 points, which is the current total CarbonSport.ag is dealing.

“Where we're seeing a ton of exposure is on the Over,” says Stewart. “So far 75 percent of the money is on the Over and we can't see much money being bet on this game Under as both teams love to spread the field and throw the ball.”

*Washington 31 - MINNESOTA 24—On the plus side for Minnesota, it looks
as if under-fire HC Leslie Frazier realizes that Christian Ponder (and not Josh
Freeman) provides the best chance for him to save his job. On the other hand,
the 1-7 Vikes have forgotten how to win, as evidenced by their late defeat at
Dallas. Perhaps last week’s OT thriller vs. the Chargers will trigger a lateseason
Washington uprising, as LY, when the Redskins won and covered their
last 7. No coincidence that RG III looks better when Alfred Morris (121 YR last
week) provides quality infantry work. “Totals” alert—Minny “over” 9-1 last 10;
Shan “over” 9-4 last 13 in reg. season. TV—NFL NETWORK

*BAYLOR 38 - Oklahoma 29—Streaking Baylor is 7-0 TY, 11-0 SU its last 11
games overall (10-1 vs. the spread), and 8-0 SU & vs. the spread its last 8 in
Waco. The Bears’ last loss was a year ago, 42-34 at Norman. Since that game,
the Sooners have gone 10-2 SU, with the losses 41-13 to A&M in the Cotton
Bowl and 36-20 last month to Texas. BU’s Bryce Perry (18 TDs, 1 int.) appears
much more in control of his attack than Sooner QB Bell. But Oklahoma has the
RBs, ball control and defensive speed to keep the dynamic Bears within reach
if Sooners execute well. TV-FOX 1

*LA.-LAFAYETTE 37 - Troy 31—Troy is 3-1 as a road dog TY, with the
emergence of 226-pound RB Jordan Chunn (400 YR, 10 TDR) providing
valuable power and a short-yardage element to the veteran Trojan offense.
The Troy defense is slowly developing. Potent Louisiana wins, but has a
hard time pulling away from Trojan sr. QB Corey Robinson (69%, 18 TDP).
CABLE TV—ESPNU

*Oregon 27 - STANFORD 21—Winner controls the Pac-12 North. Stanford
was the last team to beat Oregon, which has won 10 straight since, covering 9.
The veteran, physical Cardinal defense limited the Ducks to 14 points LY, as
Stanford held slight edges both running and passing despite losing the turnover
battle 3-1. One key was controlling the ball for 37:05. UCLA ran for 219 yards
vs. the Ducks—in Eugene—with three true frosh in the Bruin OL. Can the
Cardinal do even better? TV—ESPN

MINNESOTA over Washington by 1
Vikings’ woes continue as they return home off a hard-luck loss at
Dallas, riding a 4-game losing streak after devouring fi sh and chips
with blokes across the ocean. As a result, Minnesota HC Leslie Frazier
currently resides on the hot seat while looking to plug holes in a sinking
ship. The fi rst sign of a good fi x arrives in the form of an NFC East foe as
Minny has been mighty in games against teams from this division when
taking the fi eld off a back-to-back losses, going 8-1 SU and 9-0 ATS.
The Norsemen are also 4-1 SUATS in their last fi ve games as a home dog.
On the other side of the coin, the American Natives are just 2-5 SUATS in
their last seven battles with the NFC North, and 1-5 SUATS as favorites in
games before fi ghts with Philly. Toss in the Hogs’ 1-4 SUATS road mark
on Thursdays and suddenly the fl ame on Frazier’s derriere diminishes
for the time being.

3* BEST BET
BAYLOR over Oklahoma by 3
The first of two magnificent matchups on this Thursday evening
(Oregon versus Stanford kicks off at 9:00 ET), tonight’s Big 12 battle
is loaded with intrigue. For openers, this is a genuine ‘step-up’ game
for a Baylor squad that has looked all but invincible while climbing
to the No. 6 spot in the current BCS rankings. But while everyone
seems blinded by the Bears’ impressive 64 PPG offense – which more
than doubles the Sooners’ average output of 31 PPG this season –
the fact is Buffalo and Kansas State are the only winning teams on
this year’s list of victims (BU blasted Buffy but failed to bring home
the bacon against KSU when the Bears were held to a season-low 35
points). The once-beaten Sooners (lost to Texas) are a competitive
8-2-1 ATS as regular season dogs with rest when playing off a SU
win whereas rest turns to rust for Art Briles’ bunch, currently just
2-7 ATS as home chalk following a bye week. Besides being a playon
proposition in this week’s SMART BOX, Oklahoma is also a ‘LAY
LADY LAY’ recommendation from Marc’s 2011 Black Book, which
supports conference dogs that have been favored in their previous
seven games in a row. Big Game Bob chips in with a 3-1 ATS mark
as a dog of 7 or more points of late, while also bringing a 25-11 SU
record into the fray against unbeaten foes – and just four of those 11
setbacks came by more than 10 points. Remember, the Bears upset
the Sooners here in 2011 as 17-point DOGS with RG3, and laying this
kind of wood into a team that has been favored in each of its last
20 regular season games is simply a case of pushing the envelope
too far. The Clincher: Baylor is 1-20 SU all-time against OU,
installed as a double-digit dog in 18 of those meetings, and
losing SU and ATS in its two tries as chalk.

LA-LAFAYETTE over Troy by 7
How about a little comic relief before the second of tonight’s
heavyweight twin bill? The Sun Belt is always glad to oblige, though
this matchup may prove to be somewhat better than advertised. The
pressure seems to be mounting on the conference-leading Cajuns –
how else can you explain Lafayette trailing national bottom feeder
New Mexico State, 28-14, before rallying in the second half to win –
as they bring a 6-game win streak into this battle. Head coach Mark
Hudspeth had better have plenty of Gatorade on hand for his defense:
the Trojans arrive having scored more than 30 points in eight of nine
games this season, plus they’ve averaged a healthy 34 PPG in the last
eight meetings with the boys from Cajun country. Those are numbers
to remember since the hosts own a dismal 4-17-1 ATS record as chalk
of 3 or more points in games where they allow more than 28 points.
Tonight’s double-digit impost is considerably higher, and just bagging
the outright win will be of far greater importance to Lafayette since a
victory here sets up a potential winner-take-all showdown with state
rival ULM for the league championship (winnable road games versus
Georgia State and South Alabama are sandwiched around the duel with
the Warhawks). The hosts last shared a piece of the Sun Belt title with
ULM and Arkansas State back in 2005 and must stop a Troy team that’s
covered three of the last four meetings with Lafayette at Cajun Field.
With ULL now 0-3 ATS as chalk in Game Nine of the season, and the
Trojans eager to clinch a postseason bowl berth win a win today, we
look for a hard-fought thriller to unfold in southern Louisiana. Take
what you can get and hang on for the ride.

UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK UPSET
STANFORD over Oregon by 1
After Florida State leapfrogged Oregon into the No. 2 spot in the
BCS rankings following Saturday night’s demolition of previously
unbeaten Miami, the Ducks get a chance to strut their stuff before
a national TV audience – and perhaps recapture the coveted poll
position. Oregon certainly brings plenty of good numbers into
this fray, going 6-0 ATS of late when playing with Pac-12 revenge
and 13-1 ATS away from Eugene when playing with a week’s rest.
There’s also a mega-revenge motive involved as the Cardinal beat
the Ducks in overtime at Autzen Stadium last year and ruined
Oregon’s perfect 10-0 season (ultimately denying OU a shot at the
BCS championship game). The problem for the webfeet is Marc’s
‘TAKE IT TO THE LIMIT’ angle from his 2013 Black Book which
commands that we ‘play against’ 5-0 or greater college road teams
in the game following a week of rest. In contrast, Stanford (like
Oklahoma in the Baylor game) is a ‘LAY LADY LAY’ go-with play
from Marc’s 2011 Black Book. Best of all, though, is Cardinal head
coach David Shaw’s ATS history in tonight’s role. He’s 4-0 ATS as an
underdog (2-0 SUATS if +9.5 or more), and an outstanding 12-3
SU and 11-3-1 ATS versus an .800 or greater opponent – including
10-1-1 ATS if that foe allows 15 or more PPG on the season.
Whew! Yes, the ducklings may have covered four of the last fi ve
in this series on the road but they’re just 1-2 SUATS here when
undefeated and 1-3 ATS in Weekday road trips. Oregon QB Marcus
Mariota’s magical run will end against the most well-coached and
physical defense he’s faced all season. Another one bites the dust!
The Clincher: Stan protects The Farm like a pack of junkyard
dogs, going 33-3 SU the last six years, including 5-1 SU and
6-0 ATS as an underdog.