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dwight007
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Registered: Aug 2003
Posts: 771

Las Vegas Sharps Report - NFL Week 14

One game already in the books as Atlanta edged New Orleans to take home the cash on Thursday night. Lets take a look at how Sharps (professional bettors) are seeing the rest of the week 14 slate.

SUNDAY
Detroit at Tampa Bay:
No line yet because the status of Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford is up in the air. He’s likely to go. But, sportsbooks don’t want to post a number on the assumption that he’s playing, only to find out that he’s a scratch. Exposure to informed money would be huge given the Power Ratings difference between Stafford and his backup,

Chicago at Cincinnati:
Cincinnati opened at -5.5. The Bengals have been bet up through the six to -6.5 in some places. Chicago struggled badly in its last road game at Philadelphia, and has been in a funk in recent weeks since defenses figured out how easy it is to contain this simplified offense. Bears money would come in at the key number of +7 I believe. Sharps are still high on Mitchell Trubisky long term. They think he’s being held back by his coach.

Indianapolis at Buffalo:
Tyrod Taylor hurt his knee late in the game vs. New England last week. He’s currently “day-to-day,” which means nobody knows if he’ll play Sunday. No line yet as a result. Sharps will definitely be fading Nathan Peterman if the rookie is forced to start. Sharps remember that the Colts won at Houston when Tom Savage first took over for Deshaun Watson too. Not a lot of Wise Guys interested in Buffalo right now. That will be clearer once this game is bettable.

Seattle at Jacksonville:
Jacksonville opened as high as -3.5 in some spots, which was surprising given how little respect Blake Bortles gets as an NFL quarterback. Sharps took out the hook right away. In fact, Seattle has been bet so hard that we’re now seeing Seahawks +2.5 at many shops. It takes a lot of money, or one-sided Sharp interest to push through the key number of three and hold steady. Sharps love Seattle at +3 or better. No indicators yet for interest on the Jags. Will be interesting to see how the public bets this game Sunday. If we’re still on +2.5, Seattle will be VERY
popular in six-point teaser bets at +8.5.

Oakland at Kansas City:
Not much interest in this one yet. Most stores opened at either Chiefs -4 or -4.5. It’s been on the four ever since. The Chiefs are in free fall. Oakland has a poor defense, and can’t be trusted to cover either. Sharps don’t want either side at this price. The public may leave the game alone too because there’s not an obvious team to take. Anybody riding this favorite in recent weeks went broke.

Minnesota at Carolina:
Minnesota is getting a lot of Sharp interest since they beat the Rams awhile back. Sharps hit the Vikings hard at Atlanta last week, and were rewarded. Here, an opener of pick-em or Minnesota -1 has been bet up to -2.5 or -3 depending on the store. Carolina interest does show up as a home dog on the key number of +3. That looks like it will set up a tug-of-war over the weekend, between Minnesota -2.5 and Carolina +3. The total has been bet down from 42 to 40 in what's expected to be a defensive battle.

Green Bay at Cleveland:
Cleveland money finally cashed last week against the Chargers, making it easier to take a shot on the Browns this week. An opener of Green Bay -4 has been bet down to the three. Sharps will take anything above the three if the public drives that line any higher. Sharps are aware that Cleveland can now safely “win” a game because they have a two-game lead over the field in the race for the #1 draft pick. Both San Francisco and the NY Giants have two victories. Cleveland is 0 for the season. Nobody wants to finish a year 0-16.

San Francisco at Houston:
Sharps like Jimmy Garappolo a lot. They cashed with him last week at Chicago, and like him at +3 here against the Texans. Houston money does come in, though, at -2.5. Tom Savage is playing better with each passing week, making it tough to assume the Niners can just show up and win another road game. Probably a tug-of-war this weekend between Houston -2.5 and SF +3 unless the public decides on Sunday they want Garappolo as a dog. Sharps will push SF +2.5 up to +8.5 in six-point teasers. Some Sharp interest on the Over, with the total being bet up from 43 to 45.5.

Washington at the LA Chargers:
We’ve been solid on the Chargers -6 all week. That tells you Sharps don't like the Chargers here, or they would have have bet them just below the key number, and are likely waiting to see if the public bets the Chargers up to 7 before taking the dog Washington looked bad at Dallas last Thursday but it's tough to trust Philip Rivers of LAC at such a high line, so Sharps will gladly take whatever points are on offer here.

NY Jets at Denver:
Hard to believe the Jets are a road favorite at Denver. So many local pundits were saying the Jets wouldn’t win a game this season. This opened at Denver -1 but was bet across the threshold to NYJ -1. A low interest game outside of the cities involved. It might take +2 or better for Denver money to show up given how badly that team has played the past two months.

Tennessee at Arizona:
It’s been a solid Tennessee -3 all week. Any excursions off the key number come right back, so we can assume that Sharps aren’t very interested in this one, but will fade any public move in either direction for value. There’s not a lot of buzz about the later kicks right now. If the public does well early in the day, we may see more interest (and tug-of-war potential) in the minutes before kickoff.

Philadelphia at the LA Rams:
Definitely the game everyone will be watching and betting Sunday afternoon. The game opened at either Rams pick-em or -1 depending on the store. We’re now seeing Rams -2 almost everywhere. Sharps fell out of love with Philadelphia in the second half in Seattle last week. They will still take the Eagles at home…but it’s harder to like them on the road unless they show up and get a result here. The Rams just beat the Saints on this field, and can make a real statement here against the Eagles. Sharps who like the Rams are already in at pick-em, -1, or -1.5. Were the public to drive the game all the way to three (which doesn’t seem likely), then Eagles money would come in strong on the key number. Note that Sharps will be on the Eagles around +8 in six-point teasers. You’ll see a lot of Seattle/Philadelphia combos in teasers this week. Big move on the total, which has been bet down by a field goal from an opener of 51 to 48.

Dallas at the NY Giants:
This has been time-changed from a late start to an early kickoff. Also, Eli Manning is back in the starting lineup after ownership fired the head coach. That caused a line drop from the opener of Dallas -6 to Dallas -4 or -4.5. The public might take the Cowboys on game day given the extra rest off a Thursday nighter and the good showing vs. Washington. Sharps will take the Giants at +4.5 or better.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh:
Pittsburgh opened at -6. Baltimore’s been bet down to +5 because they have a great defense, because this is an intense rivalry, and because Pittsburgh is coming off a very physical Monday Night rally against Cincinnati. Sharps will take +6 strong if it becomes available after public betting. Probably won’t. The public watched that bruising MNF game and won’t be in the mood to lay such a big number on the favorite.

MONDAY NIGHT
New England at Miami:
An opener of Miami -12 has been bet down to Miami +11.5 or +11 depending on the store. Not much early interest in an ugly game like this. New England just won by 18 at home as a 17-point favorite over the Dolphins two weeks ago. The number is where it should be. Will the public lay double digits on a Monday Night road favorite? They might when the time comes. No reason to do that early in the week. Sharps will take Miami at +12 or higher, particularly old school Sharps who love double digit dogs.
That's it for this week, good luck to all in the Den!

Old Post 12-09-17 04:53 PM
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Old Post 12-10-17 05:12 AM
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msudogs
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TITANS (-2.5) AT CARDINALS | O/U: 43
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS

Betting market: The tickets in this game are almost split evenly, yet the percentage of dollars wagered favor the Cardinals big time. That helps explain why sportsbooks moved the number from 3.5 through the key number of 3 and down to -2.5.

Did you know? The over has received more than 50% of bets in 3,234 of a possible 3,776 (85.6%) regular season games since 2003. This Titans-Cardinals game is the rare exception, with just 29% of wagers on the over. It’s a small sample, but when less than 35 percent of bets are on the over, it has gone 29-17 (63%)

Injuries to watch: The Cardinals offense will once again be without Adrian Peterson (neck, out) and No. 2 receiver John Brown (toe, out), but all-world cornerback Patrick Peterson (hamstring, probable) said he’ll suit up Sunday. The Titans defense will have slot corner Logan Ryan (concussion, not listed), but will be without front-seven stalwarts DaQuan Jones (biceps, IR) and Derrick Morgan (knee, out). The Cardinals defense will have their hands full with a Titans passing attack welcoming back Rishard Matthews (hamstring, not listed). Tight end Delanie Walker (ankle, not listed) is good to go, as well.

Pass or play? Cardinals +3. The Titans season has been all smoke and mirrors, posting a minus-16 point differential against one of the NFL’s easiest schedules. Tennessee has won only two of its past five road games — by 3 against the Browns in OT and by 4 at Indianapolis. This Titans team relies a lot on their run game, but the Cardinals rank in the top 10 in a number of rush-defense statistics.

Old Post 12-10-17 12:20 PM
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