StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping

The FoxDen Forum : Powered by vBulletin version 2.3.0 The FoxDen Forum > Sports Handicapping, Trends, and Stats > Champions League, EUROPA Mid Week Soccer
Search The Fox Den Forum:

Subscribe to this Thread


Last Message   Next Message
    
Author
Message    Post A Reply
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Champions League, EUROPA Mid Week Soccer

let's keep rolling with some weekday soccer !
GL

Old Post 10-19-20 10:42 PM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Cosmo Kramer


Registered: Apr 2015
Posts: 698

Sweet!!!

Old Post 10-20-20 12:14 AM
Cosmo Kramer is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Cosmo Kramer Click here to Send Cosmo Kramer a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Chelsea kick-off their Champions League campaign when they host Europa League winners Sevilla on Tuesday night at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea come into the game off the back of a 3-3 draw with Southampton, a frustrating result for Frank Lampard after watching his team go 2-0 up after 28-minutes. That said Lampard will take some confidence in seeing two of his big signings, Timo Werner and Kai Havertz finding the back of the net. With Krasnodar and Rennes the other two teams in their group, one expects the winner will come from either Chelsea or Sevilla.

Individual errors let Chelsea down domestically when they allowed their two-goal lead slip against an impressive travelling Southampton side.

Once again goalkeeper Kepa Arrizabalaga was responsible for a goal after he failed to clear the ball and allow Che Adams to go on to score and with new signing Edouard Mendy on the sidelines after suffering an injury for Senegal on international duty, that’ll worry the hosts.

Europa League champions least season Sevilla also failed to pick up three points at the weekend, as Granada downed them 1-0.

However, they did win two of their opening three unbeaten matches prior to that, with the sole stalemate coming against Barcelona.

Indeed, they trail top of the table Real Madrid by just three points with a game in hand, and so it certainly hasn’t been a poor start to the campaign for them.

One thing that was on display last time out for Frank Lampard’s men was their attacking quality. Timo Werner spectacularly finished two of his chances while with the likes of Kai Havertz, Christian Pulisic and Mason Mount were all pulling the strings to manoeuvre their way up the field and so it’s no surprise they’re averaging just shy of three goals per game across all competitions.

In fact, they have now gone W8-D1-L1 from their 10 home matches dating back to March, including victories over Liverpool, Everton, Man City, Wolves and Palace to name a few, while their sole defeat came in the Premier League against an impressive Reds outfit.

The Spanish side on the other hand, have won just four of their 14 trips since mid-January and it’s a well-known fact they struggle on the road at the better sides even if they did score in 12 of those.

Indeed, against Barcelona and both Madrid clubs, they’ve lost 10 of their 13 winless league trips since the start of the 2016/17 season, although they have seen an upturn in their output in those more recently, with four goals across the last three.

We’d still be concerned about their form on the road though, losing out to Apoel Nicosia in the Europa League group stages last term as well as a 1-1 draw at CFR Cluj in the opening leg of the last 32 stage.

Old Post 10-20-20 08:28 AM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Manchester United begin their Champions League season when they take on PSG away on Tuesday night. Fittingly former PSG striker and new United front man Edinson Cavani has completed his two-week quarantine and is ready to fire his new team to an opening group stage win in Paris.

The last time these two sides met it was Man Utd who produced a stunning second-leg comeback in Paris during the early days under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.

However, Man Utd’s form quickly disintegrated following that result, while PSG have since demonstrated that they belong amongst the European elite with a run to the Champions League final last season.

The Parisians actually lost 1-0 three times on the bounce straddling the new campaign and the old one, first going down to Bayern in the continent’s showpiece event, before then suffering defeats in their opening two Ligue 1 matches this term.

However, it’s worth noting that many of their star players didn’t feature in their domestic defeats, while normal service has since been resumed. They’ve now won five times on the trot, conceding just once across these and triumphing 6-1 and 4-0 over Angers and Nimes respectively in their last two outings.

United may have scored four times at the weekend themselves as they punished Newcastle on the road, though it was a smash and grab effort with three of their goals coming in the closing minutes.

A 6-1 humiliation hosting Spurs prior to the international break has to be of greater concern and in fact, both teams have scored in eight of their last 12 matches in all competitions now as they’ve struggled for clean sheets.

PSG are desperate for success in this tournament and they certainly didn’t struggle for output last season.

The group stages saw them triumph 3-0 and 5-0 at home to Real Madrid and Galatasaray, while over the past two seasons, they’ve scored at least twice in nine of 13 encounters with top sides Liverpool, Napoli, Man Utd, Real Madrid, Dortmund, Atalanta, Leipzig and Bayern.

Only against the latter did they fail to net at all, though with just four clean sheets of their own across these fixtures, United will also fancy their chances of causing some problems too.

One man who will be keen to impress should he be handed the chance is of course Edinson Cavani, with the Uruguayan in line to make his debut against his former club, who he’ll feel dispensed with his services rather early.

However, the 33-year-old hasn’t played a competitive match since March and may have to settle for a place on the bench.

Still, Mason Greenwood has trained with the squad after missing the clash with Newcastle, his replacement Juan Mata enjoyed an excellent game, while Anthony Martial should be fresh having missed that clash through suspension.

PSG are one of the main favourites in the outright for the Champions League this term and it’s hard to look past them at the Parc des Princes, even if midfield metronome Marco Verratti is ruled out.

Given this group also features quarter-finalists Leipzig and Turkish champions Istanbul Basaksehir, any slip-ups could prove costly and Thomas Tuchel won’t be resting any of his star men here.

The hosts have won by at least two clear goals in eight of 13 home Champions League games since 2017, and by a minimum of three strikes in seven of these, so appear worth siding with on the Asian Handicap.

Indeed, that includes victories over Barcelona (4-0), Bayern (3-0), Celtic (7-1), Real Madrid (3-0), Galatasaray (5-0) and Dortmund (2-0).

Goal Scored In Minutes 76-90

There could be some value in backing a late goal here too. Aside from both teams possessing options from the bench, late strikes have been a consistent feature for these two sides this term.

10 of PSG’s 16 goals this season have come in the second half, with five of these coming in the final 15 minutes.

Meanwhile, 10 of United’s 15 efforts have come after the opening half, with eight bagged in that same time period too – including seven late goals on their travels alone.

Old Post 10-20-20 08:32 AM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Liverpool get their Champions League campaign up and running when they take on Ajax in Amsterdam on Wednesday night. Jurgen Klopp’s team will still be reeling after being denied the winner by VAR in the Merseyside derby, however the long term pain will be the injury to Virgil van Dijk, who looks set to miss most of the season after a nasty collision with Jordan Pickford. Ajax come into the clash in decent form after winning four of their five games so far in the Dutch Eredivisie, and in a group that also features an in form Atalanta, getting off to a winning start will boost their chances of topping Group D.

Ajax have made a strong start to the new campaign and sit second in the Eredivisie with four wins and a defeat so far, and they’ll come into this off the back of a 5-1 thrashing at the weekend over Heerenveen, who had made an unbeaten start to the season until that humbling.

While it’s a depleted version of the side that made the semis of this competition two years ago, with Matthijs de Ligt and Frenkie de Jong being followed out the door this summer by Hakim Ziyech and Donny van de Beek, they certainly shouldn’t be underestimated, especially against a Liverpool side who have a few issues to iron out.

The news of Virgil van Dijk now likely being out for the remainder of the season is a massive blow for the Reds, while Alisson will still be unavailable for this clash despite returning to training as he recovers from a shoulder injury.

Liverpool managed to cope without their star goalkeeper for a period of last season, but the loss of both could spell trouble for a side that haven’t managed to keep their momentum from 2019 going in 2020, despite lifting their first Premier League trophy.

Indeed, Jurgen Klopp’s side have gone W11-D3-L9 in all competitions going back to early February when including extra-time and penalties, which goes to a pretty dire W3-D2-L7 when coming up against the best sides in that run: Chelsea, Arsenal, Man City, Everton and Atletico Madrid, a bracket in which Ajax could be considered.

In fact, their only victories from their last 13 matches away from Anfield have come against Brighton, Newcastle, Lincoln and a 10-man Chelsea side, so we’re certainly not considering them at their current price.

Ajax have won nine of their last 10 home matches across all competitions, with five of those coming by three or more goals, including two of three this season.

While it’s always difficult to go against the Reds, it’s rare to get Ajax at this long of a price on home soil against a side who have a lot of question marks over their defence, and they’re certainly worth getting behind on the double chance at the very least.

Old Post 10-21-20 08:18 AM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Manchester City begin their quest to be crowned Champions League winners when they welcome Porto to the Etihad on Wednesday night. Pep Guardiola’s team haven’t been anywhere near their best so far this season and will be looking to set the early tone in a tricky Group C that also features Olympiacos and Marseille.

Porto in theory could represent a potential banana skin for Pep Guardiola’s side, though while often reaching the knockout stages in Europe, they can often come undone when taking on the elite.

In fact, the Portuguese outfit have a poor record travelling to English sides and have lost six of seven winless such games since 2009/10, conceding 15 times without finding the net themselves, as the most recent of these saw them downed 2-0 by Liverpool in 2019.

City certainly don’t lack firepower, even if Gabriel Jesus and Kevin De Bruyne remain sidelined. They’ve bagged 51 goals in their 19 Champions League matches over the past two campaigns, going W13-D3-L3, while at the Etihad alone they’ve won seven of their last eight unbeaten fixtures.

Sergio Aguero is back from injury, while Raheem Sterling has been delivering the goods with four goals from their last three outings as he opened the scoring in each.

In fact, for club or country he’s bagged the first strike in seven of the last eight in which he’s found the net, and looks a better value proposition than his Argentine teammate to draw first blood.

Those forward absentees aren’t the only concerns for Guardiola however, with defenders Aymeric Laporte, Oleksandr Zinchenko and Benjamin Mendy all missing too.

The former was a major loss for them last season, especially in the wake of Vincent Kompany’s departure, though they might feel they’ve turned a corner in that respect with the signing of Ruben Dias.

City kept a clean sheet against Arsenal at the weekend without Laporte, with another summer signing Nathan Ake also looking solid at the back, so given Porto’s record away in England we’d be encouraged to go for the clean sheet.

City are yet to truly make their mark in the final stages in this competition, fluffing their lines against Lyon last term after doing the hard work versus heavyweights Real Madrid, but they’ve been largely excellent in the group stages.

Guardiola’s first season in charge saw them finish second behind Barcelona, but they’ve since topped their group in each of the past three campaigns.

Old Post 10-21-20 08:20 AM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Napoli is starting their season undefeated. Scoring 12 and only allowing 1 goal (vs Atalanta)

AZ alkmaar has over 15 players out from COVID. they are bringing in young players from the u20 and u17 squads. The game will be played as of now unless local authorities cancel it. But UEFA has given the thumbs up

Old Post 10-22-20 08:30 AM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

After their superb 6-1 thrashing of Manchester United, and being 3-0 up after just 16 min against West Ham, Jose Mourinho must have been thinking that something had finally clicked in his Tottenham team, however three late goals by the Hammers would have brought that thought to an abrupt halt. Spurs clearly have some issues in defence and little time to address them as they welcome LASK in the Europa League on Thursday night.

It was the second debut for Spurs that Gareth Bale hadn’t been hoping for last time out. Indeed, his introduction at 3-0 up in the 72nd minute should have been the ideal return for the Welsh international, but a header from Fabian Balbuena and an own goal by Davinson Sanchez within 13 minutes changed that.

He did create a nice opportunity for himself following that to settle the encounter, but with his shot whistling past the right post, up stepped Manuel Lanzini for West Ham in the 94th minute to score a spectacular strike into the top corner to level the scores.

That result is certainly a fall from grace having thrashed Man Utd 6-1 prior to the international break at Old Trafford.

Nonetheless, only current Premier League leaders Everton have beaten then this term, coming on the opening weekend, as they’ve won five of their eight unbeaten outings since, knocking Chelsea out on penalties in the League Cup, and a few lapses in concentration at the back isn’t going to take away the attacking masterclass the likes of Harry Kane and Song Heung-min put on.

LASK currently sit in fifth place in the Austrian Bundesliga having gone W2-D1-L1 from their opening four matches.

However, that sole defeat did come against Rapid Wien, who are one of the better sides in their domestic league along with Salzburg, and against those two sides the visitors haven’t had much success down the years.

Indeed, they’ve lost all their six such matches across all competitions dating back to March, conceding exactly three times and losing by at least two goals in each of the last four.

Interestingly, they also faced English club Man Utd over that period, with the Red Devils hammering them 7-1 on aggregate in the last 16 of this tournament last year, and given the form of the Lilywhites have shown going forward, we’d be surprised if they didn’t put a few past them too.

Old Post 10-22-20 08:32 AM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Celtic kick-off their Europa League campaign when they welcome AC Milan to Celtic Park on Thursday night. The hosts come into the game off the back of a 2-0 loss to Rangers and are up against a team that feature a certain Zlatan Ibrahimovic who is fresh off a match winning brace in the Milan derby, a result that saw the Italian outfit move to the top of the table.

Celtic’s 2-0 defeat at home in the Old Firm derby was far from ideal preparation ahead of taking on sleeping giants Milan.

It was their second defeat in a row to Rangers, with both of these games coming at Celtic Park, and it’s led to a bad atmosphere with recriminations and a dressing room inquest over a leaked team sheet.

Further, star striker Odsonne Edouard is a major doubt and highly unlikely to feature, as is Chris Jullien, while Ryan Christie is another one who looks set to miss out.

By contrast, the mood in Milan is of a very different nature. Stefano Pioli’s men are in a rich vein of form stretching back into last season, winning their own derby with Inter at the weekend, while after four games this term they lead Serie A with a perfect record to date.

In fact, they’ve won a highly impressive 15 of 20 unbeaten matches in all competitions since the restart in June, with three of the stalemates coming against Juventus, Napoli and Atalanta. 12 of those 15 victories came by at least two clear goals, while eight of the past nine have all ended in maximum points.

With that in mind, it’s easy to see why Milan start as favourites and in fact we’d have them at a shorter price given their outstanding form.

Pioli has already confirmed that Milan will be taking the Europa League seriously – something Italian outfits haven’t always done – and we wouldn’t expect him to underestimate their hosts and simply field a second-string side.

He has enough at his disposal to shuffle the pack and former Man Utd right-back Diego Dalot could come in to hand Davide Calabria a well-earned rest, the highly promising Sandro Tonali should come into midfield for one of Franck Kessie or Bennacer, while Rade Krunic could also come into the picture.

Further forwards there’s likely to be greater changes with Samu Castillejo, Brahim Diaz and Petter Hauge all vying for spots.

Hakan Calhonoglu is likely to be given a break having travelled with Turkey over the international break, Zlatan Ibrahimovic can’t play every game even if he does appear to be turning back the clock, but Rafael Leao may well keep his place with his pace likely to prove effective against Celtic’s slower backline.

Neil Lennon will hope on-loan midfield Diego Laxalt can help him get the better of the Uruguayan’s parent club, though a little bit of inside knowledge isn’t going to go very far given the form of the visitors. Celtic have often disappointed on the European stage in recent times, often flunking the chance to advance past Champions League qualifiers against some ropey opposition.

The absence of star man Edouard leaves us sceptical of their prospects, and Milan look set to continue their winning run.

Old Post 10-22-20 08:34 AM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Slavia Prague | Thursday 22nd October 2020, 12:55

Hapoel Beer Sheva and Slavia Prague meet for the first time in their respective histories in Group C of this season’s Europa League. The pair are fitting in the group alongside Bayer Leverkusen and Nice, so realistically you would assume that there will be a pretty intense battle for the second qualification place.

Three points therefore will be particularly important for both teams for different reasons. Hapoel Beer Sheva simply must make the most of home advantage when coming up against all of the other three teams.

It is likely to take a big effort for them to get anything away from home, and you’d suspect that could be their shortcoming after all six group encounters. The Israeli club are back in the group stage for the first time since 2017/18, where they lost five of their six matches.

Of their four qualification games to reach this stage this season, three of those were at home and all victories came without conceding, including at the play-off stage when impressively knocking out Viktoria Plzen. They have actually been regularly in the competition for a few years now, but ultimately they’ve always fallen short. The bookies have Slavia Prague as odds-on to win here, which is no value at all, but it reflects the task at hand for the home team.

Slavia Prague have won the Czech top flight in each of the last four seasons, and are very much intent on making it a fifth in succession. They’re six games into the new campaign and already have five wins to their name, so they’re certainly in decent nick.

They did however comprehensively lost out for FC Midtjylland over two legs to qualify for the Champions League, so they have to settle for Europe’s second-tier competition, although they did reach the quarter-finals in 2018/19, only to be knocked out by Chelsea.

Whilst their season has started, they actually haven’t played since October 4th, and their domestic league won’t resume action until the first week of November. They should at least be fresh for this game, and the same will apply to their opponents as Hapoel Beer Sheva haven’t played any football since October 1st when knocking out Plzen in the play-offs of this very competition. Both teams therefore will just be glad to be back on the pitch.

Even those this is matchday one, there is still a feeling that both teams really need a result from this. Falling behind means having to chase, and doing so in a competitive group means they’re unlikely to catch up. I therefore foresee a scenario where both of these teams have a go.

I don’t see any real reason for the home team to play a defensive game. Sure, they’re facing a good opponent, but if there is a time to catch Slavia cold then it is away from home. They’re failed to keep a clean sheet in eight of their last 12 competitive encounters on the road.

Hapoel Beer Sheva actually rarely concede when playing at home. They’ve enjoyed six clean sheets in their previous eight here in all competitions. We of course do have to factor in the sort of opposition they’ve been facing. They’re used to taking the game to opponents at home, so I just don’t picture then suddenly changing and sitting back. It ultimately wouldn’t lead to them producing anything like their best.

Old Post 10-22-20 08:36 AM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

After a bright start to their Premier League campaign, Arsenal have dropped six points from their last three games, most recently a tight 1-0 loss to Man City, not the sort of form Mikel Arteta would have wanted heading into their Europa League adventure against Rapid Vienna on Thursday night. The hosts remain unbeaten in the Austrian league, however the Gunners hsould secure all three points and are favourites to top Group B.

Rapid have made a strong start to their Austrian Bundesliga campaign, going unbeaten through their opening four games and trailing leaders RB Salzburg by two points.

They’re here in this group courtesy of a 2-1 defeat to Gent in the Champions League qualifiers, though that’s their only taste of defeat this season and have made an impeccable start on home soil, winning all three matches by at least three goals margins and by an aggregate 12-1, though Arsenal are a different kettle of fish.

The Gunners have only played two home games this season, winning both by narrow 2-1 margins against West Ham and Sheffield United and although that alone doesn’t instil too much confidence, the fact that their only defeats in all competitions have come away at Liverpool and Man City shows they have more than enough to go to Austria and pick up the points they need.

While goals have been flying in around the Premier league at a rate of 3.72 goals per game, Arsenal are one of the exceptions that are bringing that average down.

Only Aston Villa have conceded fewer than the Gunners’ six this year, though Man City are the only side in the top half who have netted less and we can’t see this being a goal fest.

While Rapid Vienna regularly see off domestic teams with ease, there’s even a big gulf in quality with Red Bull Salzburg, against whom they’ve managed just one win from their last 19 appearances in all competitions, losing all five meetings last season and Arsenal should be just a step too far.

European games are rarely a walkover for Mikel Arteta’s side, though, as only two of their eight matches last year did they win by more than a single strike, and seeing as they’ve only scored more than twice in one of their eight matches this season, the multibet looks to hold some value.

Old Post 10-22-20 08:42 AM
msudogs is online now Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Bike
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Oct 2005
Posts: 954

Good work. Long time no speak. Hope you are doing well.

Old Post 10-22-20 05:14 PM
Bike is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bike Click here to Send Bike a Private Message Edit post   Report post
geg1951
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 14866

2 CST

AC Milan
-105


Tottenham Hotspur FC
-1.5..-109

glta




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
---------------------------------------------------

Old Post 10-22-20 08:49 PM
geg1951 is online now Click Here to See the Profile for geg1951 Click here to Send geg1951 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
geg1951
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 14866

2-0

AC Milan
-105

Tottenham Hotspur FC
-1.5..-109




GARY / GARLAND TEXAS...... RETIRED
---------------------------------------------------

Old Post 10-22-20 11:17 PM
geg1951 is online now Click Here to See the Profile for geg1951 Click here to Send geg1951 a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Post A Reply
  
  Last Message   Next Message

Quick Links: