World Series overs:

Game 1 check
Game 2 check

+70% of bets are on the over 7.5 in Game 3 at
MGM
.

Since 2005, in playoff series when the over has cashed in 2 or more games in a row the under has gone 50-35-2 (59%)

LAD -155 are receiving 54% of bets and 77% of handle in Game 3 at MGM



The public is expecting LA to bounce back.

Since 2005, playoff teams receiving a majority of moneyline bets after a loss have gone 108-129, -59.1 units.

The Rays evened the World Series at 1-1 after an offensive explosion in Game 2 and four and two-thirds innings of no-hit ball from Blake Snell. After Snell gave up a two-run bomb to Chris Taylor, Kevin Cash turned to his two best relievers, Nick Anderson and Pete Fairbanks, to get through the seventh inning. Aaron Loup and Diego Castillo then come on in the eighth and ninth to finish off the Dodgers to hold on for a 6-4 win.

Los Angeles tried to go with a bullpen game in Game 2, using seven different pitchers. However, Dustin May allowed four hits and three earned runs, including a two-run homer to Brandon Lowe in the fifth inning, which gave the Rays an early 5-0 lead and pretty much put the game out of reach.

The Dodgers will turn to their young flame thrower Walker Buehler in Game 3, while the Rays will counter with veteran Charlie Morton.

The Dodgers are huge favorites again in Game 3, so will the underdog Rays be able to pull off another upset?

The Dodgers have owned right-handers in 2020, reporting a .355 wOBA and an MLB-best 126 wRC+ against righties. Mookie Betts, Will Smith and Corey Seager are three of the best players in the MLB when it comes to facing right-handers, as they all posted a wOBA better than .415 during the regular season.

And what happens to be the one pitch the Dodgers annihilate? Fastballs. LA was second-best to only the Braves this season against fastballs, accumulating 53.9 weighted fastball runs. So Charlie Morton is going to have to utilize his off-speed a lot, much like Blake Snell in Game 2.

Tampa Bay’s offense has relied on the long ball during the postseason, hitting 28 home runs, including three so far this series. However, the Rays are hitting for only a .213 average during the postseason. Tampa Bay was average against right-handed pitching in 2020 with a .319 wOBA and 105 wRC+, which ranked 16th in MLB.

The Rays are an interesting team, due to the fact they struggle versus fastballs, but absolutely crush off-speed pitches. The Rays rank 24th in MLB against fastballs with -9.9 weighted fastball runs. However, they are top-five in baseball against sliders, curveballs and changeups. Walker Buehler is mainly a fastball pitcher, throwing it over 53% of the time, so the Rays may have a difficult matchup in Game 3.

Walker Buehler has a full arsenal of nasty stuff. His fastball can top out at around 100 mph, and he knows how to use effectively. Buehler’s heater has allowed only a .102 average to opposing hitters and has produced a 26.1% whiff rate this season.

Buehler also has a nasty cutter that has limited hitters to a .283 wOBA and produced a 34.0% whiff rate. However, Buehler’s control has been a bit off during the postseason. He’s allowed a 5.21 BB/9 rate, which is an issue since the Rays are one of the most patient teams at the plate, ranking fourth in walk rate this year.

If Buehler is going to be successful in Game 3, he’s going to have to go to his fastball often.

Charlie Morton was a bit of a disappointment during the regular season, but he’s turned things around during the playoffs. Morton has allowed only one earned run in his three postseason starts, but he’s been a tad fortunate. His xFIP is all the way up at 3.57.

The biggest difference between 2020 and 2019 for Charlie Morton is his curveball. Last season, Morton allowed only a .185 wOBA and generated a 38.1% whiff rate with his breaking ball. In 2020, that pitch has yielded a .291 wOBA and his whiff rate has gone down by almost 10%.

If Morton can’t get his curveball working he could be in a world of hurt, because that would mean he has to throw his fastball more often, which plays right into the Dodgers’ hands since they’re the second-best team in the majors against fastballs.
Tampa Bay has one of the best bullpens in baseball, collectively ranking second in ERA (3.37) and sixth in xFIP (4.16). Pete Fairbanks and Diego Castillo have by far been the Rays’ best two relievers during the postseason and were pivotal in holding the Dodgers in check in Game 2. Tampa’s bullpen has been solid through the first two games, allowing only 10 hits and four runs in 13 innings.

The Dodgers counter with a bullpen that leads MLB in ERA (2.74) and was second in xFIP at 3.88. They shut down the Rays in Game 1, but Dustin May imploded in the fifth inning of Game 2 to blow the game wide open. Dave Roberts will need to do a better job at managing his bullpen in Game 3; he hasn’t even used Brusdar Graterol or Kenley Jansen thus far.

With the way they’re pitching, Walker Buehler and Charlie Morton aren’t exactly in need of an added advantage at the moment. Buehler comes into Game 3 boasting a 1.89 ERA to go along with 13.74 strikeouts per nine this postseason. Morton brings with him a ridiculous 0.57 ERA, having allowed just one earned run in 15.2 playoff innings…

But by the looks of tonight’s forecast in Arlington, they’ll be getting an added edge anyway.

When the roof opens — which isn’t yet a guarantee tonight, though it has for all 12 postseason games thus far — it slides across to the right field side, leaving the left field opening as the most exposed, or vulnerable-to-wind border portion of the ballpark.

The over/under for tonight’s game opened at 8, with standard -110 juice on both sides. It’s now not only dropped to 7.5, but the under is being juiced up to the -115/-120 range, depending on the sportsbook, and this forecast is likely playing a major role in the reason for that move.

Bill Miller 277-234 (54.2% -7.17 units) 270-221 (55.0% 27.26 units) 8.2