Cleveland just had issues with Jacksonville at home and Weeden has never faced New England. Matt Patricia will make his head spin.
Denver -13 vs. Tennessee
Tennessee's bubble burst with the loss to Indy and since they need to win out for a shot at a wild card, how confident are they going to be heading to Denver? Fitzpatrick will not be able to keep pace.
Seattle +3 @ San Francisco
The other two teams I wanted to add to New England & Denver don't have a key number, so I'm playing Seattle. Seattle has the number one efficiency ranking going into tonight's game. Simple math and trends point to a close game. Regardless if they win or lose tonight they will be up for the trip to San Francisco. I bought San Francisco (-3) as well in case Seattle has a major injury tonight.
Mike Shanahan is done and so are the Redskins. No way they are up for this game. Kansas City however has played well (4-0) in early / east coast games this season. Add the fact that Andy has out coached Mike every time they met it's easy to see why the Chiefs are favored.
Even though KC has lost three in a row, they were three battles vs. Denver and San Diego. The defense is banged up (not as bad as Washington) and they might rest Hali and Houston, but against a QB like Griffin it's not as big of a factor. Reid knows if they are going to go and will game plan accordingly.
Reid having coached Vick understands how to game plan against RGIII. I believe this game will comedown to the running game. One stat I looked at was Defensive Points Per Drive, which is good stat to look at under the circumstance. KC is ranked 5th and the Skins are ranked 30th.
Chiefs averaged 28 points in the three recent losses. Skins have put up 6 & 17 entering their third straight at home.
Another glaring stat is the Washington team efficiency ranking of 28 in the league.
Several trends favoring the Chiefs. Three solid ones that total 19 - 3 ATS.
Highest rated trend of the three...
Teams playing as an away favorite off back to back division losses are 6-0 both straight up and against the spread since the 2005 season.
Kansas City -3 (10*)
Posted Season To Date
Sides 25 - 18 +21
Totals 19 - 14 +4
Money Line 3 - 0 +6
Parlay & Teaser 23 - 11 +45
Hedge 0 - 1 <3>
Prop 5 - 1 +8
Due to the weather I bought back half of Kansas City. Letting half ride since even if the game is played under poor conditions, Kansas City's offense has a higher rating (almost twice as high) in poor weather game than Washington. Even factoring in RGIII and Morris's short careers.
Added....
three team tease
New England PK***
Detroit +13
Giants +13.5
Everybody and they're grandmother is on the Bears tonight. Just looking at the line moves in the past hour and it has moved 1 - 2 points at some offshore books. Vegas not as much. Tons of trends backing Chicago and its Iron Mike's night, Romo doesn't show up in December....blah, blah ,blah.
This game is going to be won on the ground. Chicago is ranked 28th in Rushing Def. efficiency. Dallas is ranked 7th in rushing efficiency. Cowboys are going to grind it out and dump it off underneath. Look for Murray and Witten to go off tonight.
DeMarco Murray (Cowboys) Total Rushing Yards - Must Play 88.5 Rushing Yards
(-115) Over **
Jason Witten (Cowboys) Total Receiving Yards - Must Play 52.5 Receiving Yards
(-115) Over*
Sean Lee on Matt Forte...
Dallas +2*
Posted Season To Date
Sides 26 - 18 +31
Totals 19 - 15 +2
Money Line 3 - 0 +6
Parlay & Teaser 24 - 14 +32
Hedge 0 - 2 <6>
Prop 5 - 1 +8
Kansas City -3 (10*) Win
Pittsburgh Under 40.5** Loss
New England -3 (10*) Loss
Denver -3
Seattle +13
New England PK*** Loss
Detroit +13
Giants +13.5
New England Pick***** Win
Indianapolis +17
Denver -3
NY GIANTS +14***** Loss
Denver PICK
New Orleans +7