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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Umps listed with their 2017 and 2016 records for home-team win-loss and o/u in bold, then additional ump trends in italics.
Lines from 5dimes
Day games
951 St. Louis Cardinals -145 Over 8½ -105
952 Philadelphia Phillies +135 Under 8½ -115
Nic Lentz 2017: 5-3, 5-3 o/u (2016: 12-12, 11-12 o/u)
Home team is 4-0 in Lentzs last 4 Phillies games behind home plate.
963 Chicago White Sox -120 Over 10 -110
964 Minnesota Twins +110 Under 10 -110
Jerry Meals 2017: 7-7, 6-8 o/u (2016: 13-17, 14-14 o/u)
Under is 18-8-1 in Meals' last 27 games behind home plate.
White Sox are 6-16 in their last 22 games with Meals behind home plate.
965 Toronto Blue Jays -135 Over 10½ -105
966 Texas Rangers +125 Under 10½ -115
Shane Livensparger 2017: 1-0, 0-1 o/u (2016: 0-0, 0-0 o/u)
953 Pittsburgh Pirates +105 Over 9 -115
954 Milwaukee Brewers -115 Under 9 -105
Dan Bellino 2017: 5-7, 1-8 o/u (2016: 13-16, 14-13 o/u)
Under is 8-1-3 in Bellinos last 12 games behind home plate.
Under is 6-2 in Bellinos last 8 Pirates games behind home plate.
Pirates are 4-0 in their last 4 games with Bellino behind home plate.
Brewers are 2-6 in their last 8 games with Bellino behind home plate.
955 Arizona Diamondbacks -103 Over 11½ -125
956 Colorado Rockies -107 Under 11½ +105
Alan Porter 2017: 4-8, 7-5 o/u (2016: 17-12, 13-15 o/u)
Home team is 4-0 in Porters last 4 games behind home plate.
Rockies are 7-0 in their last 7 games with Porter behind home plate.
967 Houston Astros -138 Over 10 +110
968 Oakland Athletics +128 Under 10 -130
Mike Everitt 2017: 8-6, 8-6 o/u (2016: 21-13, 10-24 o/u)
Athletics are 4-9 in their last 13 games with Everitt behind home plate.
Night games
969 Cleveland Indians -125 Over 10½ -110
970 Baltimore Orioles +115 Under 10½ -110
Adam Hamari 2017: 7-5, 5-7 o/u (2016: 14-18, 19-13 o/u)
Home team is 5-1 in Hamaris last 6 games behind home plate.
Home team is 4-1 in Hamaris last 5 Orioles games behind home plate.
971 Los Angeles Angels +210 Over 9 -125
972 New York Yankees -230 Under 9 +105
David Rackley 2017: 8-4, 7-4 o/u (2016: 19-11, 16-14 o/u)
Home team is 37-16 in Rackleys last 53 games behind home plate.
Home team is 4-0 in Rackleys last 4 Angels games behind home plate.
957 Chicago Cubs -127 Over 9 -105
958 Miami Marlins +117 Under 9 -115
Umpire information not available.
959 San Francisco Giants +143 Over 9 -115
960 Atlanta Braves -153 Under 9 -105
Quinn Wolcott 2017: 6-7, 9-4 o/u (2016: 15-15, 18-11 o/u)
Over is 8-0 in Wolcotts last 8 Braves games behind home plate.
Over is 4-0 in Wolcotts last 4 Giants games behind home plate.
961 New York Mets
962 Los Angeles Dodgers
Angel Hernandez 2017: 6-7, 10-3 o/u (2016: 14-17, 13-15 o/u)
Dodgers are 15-5 in their last 20 games with Hernandez behind home plate.
Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games with Hernandez behind home plate.
Over is 6-1 in Hernandezs last 7 games behind home plate.
Over is 7-2-1 in Hernandezs last 10 Mets games behind home plate.
Under is 17-7-1 in Hernandezs last 25 Dodgers games behind home plate.
973 Detroit Tigers
974 Seattle Mariners
Manny Gonzalez 2017: 6-6, 9-1 o/u (2016: 15-15, 19-10 o/u)
Over is 37-13-3 in Gonzalezs last 53 games behind home plate.
Home team is 5-2 in Gonzalezs last 7 games behind home plate.
Mariners are 2-7 in their last 9 games with Gonzalez behind home plate.
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06-22-17 11:52 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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The 2017 MLB season has been defined by the impressive individual performances by widely unheralded players. Whether it’s Scooter Gennett mashing four home runs in one game, veteran journeyman Eric Thames challenging for the home run crown or rookie Aaron Judge hitting historically long dingers, it’s clear that we’re watching an unprecedented display of power.
Right now the league is on pace to break the all-time single-season home run record, and there are several possibilities for this recent surge. One of the most popular theories is that Major League Baseball has been using a “juiced ball” in order to increase scoring and thereby improve ratings. This theory is partially validated by the increased exit speeds on balls in play. Whatever the cause, we’ve seen a massive spike in home runs over the past few seasons.
As home runs and scoring has increased, we’ve seen a similar trend with MLB totals. In 2014, there were 8.1 total runs scored per game and the average total was 7.8. During that season, the over went just 1142-1202 (48.7%) which led to tremendous profits for sportsbooks. Public bettors love rooting for high-scoring games and live by the mantra “life’s too short to bet unders.”
From 2005 to 2014, MLB overs went 11,471-11,957 (49.0%) which meant a lot of losing for casual bettors. As scoring has increased, those same public bettors have benefited greatly. Since the start of the 2015 season, MLB overs have gone 2,903-2,776 (51.1%) including a 527-468 (53.0%) mark this season
It’s also worth noting that public support for the over continues to grow. In April, the majority of bettors took the over in 77.9% of games. That figure increased to 89.5% in May and 88.4% in June. Clearly public bettors are looking to hammer these overs, and that could create value for contrarian bettors looking to capitalize on inflated lines.
Bettors should also realize that overs receiving overwhelming public support have not fared well this season. When receiving at least two-thirds of public support, the over has gone 235-236 (49.9%). In all other games, the over has gone 292-232 (55.7%).
Public money plays a larger role in baseball than it does in most other sports based on the sheer number of games. When sharp bettors aren’t involved, sportsbooks will adjust their numbers if there’s a significant exposure on one side. There’s far less money wagered on the total than there is on the moneyline, but you can still extract value in games with extremely one-sided public betting. As totals continue to climb, bettors should try to identify value by going against the grain and take the under in games where bettors are pounding the over.
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06-23-17 12:20 AM |
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