StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping

The FoxDen Forum : Powered by vBulletin version 2.3.0 The FoxDen Forum > Sports Handicapping, Trends, and Stats > NFL Week # 14
Search The Fox Den Forum:

Subscribe to this Thread


Last Message   Next Message
    
Author
Message    Post A Reply
Bromoe
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 6020

NFL Week # 14

Playing it now before the lines move.

New England -13 vs. Cleveland

Cleveland just had issues with Jacksonville at home and Weeden has never faced New England. Matt Patricia will make his head spin.

Denver -13 vs. Tennessee

Tennessee's bubble burst with the loss to Indy and since they need to win out for a shot at a wild card, how confident are they going to be heading to Denver? Fitzpatrick will not be able to keep pace.

Seattle +3 @ San Francisco

The other two teams I wanted to add to New England & Denver don't have a key number, so I'm playing Seattle. Seattle has the number one efficiency ranking going into tonight's game. Simple math and trends point to a close game. Regardless if they win or lose tonight they will be up for the trip to San Francisco. I bought San Francisco (-3) as well in case Seattle has a major injury tonight.

Three Team Ten Point Teaser (10*)

New England -3
Denver -3
Seattle +13

Old Post 12-03-13 02:53 AM
Bromoe is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bromoe Click here to Send Bromoe a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Bromoe
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 6020

Kansas City @ Washington

Here is what I see...

Mike Shanahan is done and so are the Redskins. No way they are up for this game. Kansas City however has played well (4-0) in early / east coast games this season. Add the fact that Andy has out coached Mike every time they met it's easy to see why the Chiefs are favored.

Even though KC has lost three in a row, they were three battles vs. Denver and San Diego. The defense is banged up (not as bad as Washington) and they might rest Hali and Houston, but against a QB like Griffin it's not as big of a factor. Reid knows if they are going to go and will game plan accordingly.

Reid having coached Vick understands how to game plan against RGIII. I believe this game will comedown to the running game. One stat I looked at was Defensive Points Per Drive, which is good stat to look at under the circumstance. KC is ranked 5th and the Skins are ranked 30th.

Chiefs averaged 28 points in the three recent losses. Skins have put up 6 & 17 entering their third straight at home.

Another glaring stat is the Washington team efficiency ranking of 28 in the league.

Several trends favoring the Chiefs. Three solid ones that total 19 - 3 ATS.

Highest rated trend of the three...
Teams playing as an away favorite off back to back division losses are 6-0 both straight up and against the spread since the 2005 season.

Kansas City -3 (10*)

Posted Season To Date
Sides 25 - 18 +21
Totals 19 - 14 +4
Money Line 3 - 0 +6
Parlay & Teaser 23 - 11 +45
Hedge 0 - 1 <3>
Prop 5 - 1 +8

Old Post 12-04-13 06:59 AM
Bromoe is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bromoe Click here to Send Bromoe a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Bromoe
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 6020

Due to the weather I bought back half of Kansas City. Letting half ride since even if the game is played under poor conditions, Kansas City's offense has a higher rating (almost twice as high) in poor weather game than Washington. Even factoring in RGIII and Morris's short careers.

Added....

three team tease
New England PK***
Detroit +13
Giants +13.5

Old Post 12-08-13 07:37 AM
Bromoe is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bromoe Click here to Send Bromoe a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Bromoe
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 6020

Added...

New England Pick*****
Indianapolis +17
Denver -3

Old Post 12-08-13 03:32 PM
Bromoe is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bromoe Click here to Send Bromoe a Private Message Edit post   Report post
msudogs
Moderator

Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535

let's do it today, riding with you
GL

Old Post 12-08-13 03:47 PM
msudogs is offline Click Here to See the Profile for msudogs Click here to Send msudogs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
jtsachs
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Dec 2006
Posts: 2534

Matching up big time. Love it. GL

Old Post 12-08-13 06:45 PM
jtsachs is offline Click Here to See the Profile for jtsachs Click here to Send jtsachs a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Bromoe
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 6020

Added...

Pittsburgh Under 40.5**

Old Post 12-08-13 06:48 PM
Bromoe is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bromoe Click here to Send Bromoe a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Bromoe
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 6020

Just hit a nice exacta @ Gulfstream so I'll Add...

Three Team Teaser

NY GIANTS +14*****
Denver PICK
New Orleans +7

Old Post 12-08-13 09:53 PM
Bromoe is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bromoe Click here to Send Bromoe a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Bromoe
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 6020

Everybody and they're grandmother is on the Bears tonight. Just looking at the line moves in the past hour and it has moved 1 - 2 points at some offshore books. Vegas not as much. Tons of trends backing Chicago and its Iron Mike's night, Romo doesn't show up in December....blah, blah ,blah.

This game is going to be won on the ground. Chicago is ranked 28th in Rushing Def. efficiency. Dallas is ranked 7th in rushing efficiency. Cowboys are going to grind it out and dump it off underneath. Look for Murray and Witten to go off tonight.

DeMarco Murray (Cowboys) Total Rushing Yards - Must Play 88.5 Rushing Yards
(-115) Over **

Jason Witten (Cowboys) Total Receiving Yards - Must Play 52.5 Receiving Yards
(-115) Over*

Sean Lee on Matt Forte...

Dallas +2*


Posted Season To Date
Sides 26 - 18 +31
Totals 19 - 15 +2
Money Line 3 - 0 +6
Parlay & Teaser 24 - 14 +32
Hedge 0 - 2 <6>
Prop 5 - 1 +8

Kansas City -3 (10*) Win

Pittsburgh Under 40.5** Loss

New England -3 (10*) Loss
Denver -3
Seattle +13

New England PK*** Loss
Detroit +13
Giants +13.5

New England Pick***** Win
Indianapolis +17
Denver -3

NY GIANTS +14***** Loss
Denver PICK
New Orleans +7

Washington ML Hedge *** Loss

Old Post 12-10-13 02:26 AM
Bromoe is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bromoe Click here to Send Bromoe a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Bromoe
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Sep 2005
Posts: 6020

Congrats to the Bears backers.



DeMarco Murray (Cowboys) Total Rushing Yards - Must Play 88.5 Rushing Yards
(-115) Over **Win

Jason Witten (Cowboys) Total Receiving Yards - Must Play 52.5 Receiving Yards
(-115) Over*Loss

Dallas +2* Loss


Posted Season To Date
Sides 26 - 19 +30
Totals 19 - 15 +2
Money Line 3 - 0 +6
Parlay & Teaser 24 - 14 +32
Hedge 0 - 2 <6>
Prop 6 - 2 +9

Old Post 12-10-13 05:44 AM
Bromoe is offline Click Here to See the Profile for Bromoe Click here to Send Bromoe a Private Message Edit post   Report post
Post A Reply
  
  Last Message   Next Message

Quick Links: