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msudogs
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NCAAF Night Discussion

would anyone like to toss around some ideas, plays, stats, or trends ?

Old Post 10-20-18 11:20 PM
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Traderpro
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No more plays for me tonight with CFB as regression will kick my butt, but Vandy and Kentucky is an interesting game. I don't like chalk much but Kentucky at home and rested extra week.

Old Post 10-20-18 11:32 PM
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Traderpro
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There are what I would call some live dogs tonight, so if anyone sees any they like point them out.
???
N Texas +1.5 vs UAB
Miss St +5 vs LSU and dropping
New Mexico +14 vs Fresno St

Old Post 10-20-18 11:35 PM
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CUBANO
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Totals kids. Totals




2014 MLB Contest 1st Place
2016 NBA Contest 1st Place

Old Post 10-20-18 11:39 PM
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Traderpro
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Ralph, UCF and ECU getting a lot of Over action. 66.5 now

Old Post 10-20-18 11:45 PM
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msudogs
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Other games, such as Saturday’s Vanderbilt-Kentucky (7:30 p.m. ET) matchup, are unlikely to catch the eyes of recreational bettors.

However, despite minimal line movement, Sports Insights betting tools reveal how professionals quietly got down on this game on Thursday afternoon.

BookMaker opened the Vanderbilt-Kentucky over/under at 48, and bettors quickly pushed it up to 48.5 early in the week. The total remained there through Thursday afternoon, and that’s when sharp bettors pounced.

Sports Insights’ Bet Signals triggered a Steam Move at CRIS — one of the sharpest offshore sportsbooks — explaining why this over/under has dropped to 46.

Steam refers to sudden and uniform line movement across the entire betting market and is usually the result of respected bettors getting down on the same side of one game at multiple sportsbooks, all at once.

Sharps are likely taking advantage of a worsening weather forecast that is now calling for sustained 15-mph to 18-mph winds throughout the games.

According to Bet Labs, the under is 471-341-12 (58%) in college football games with average winds above 13 mph, since 2005.

Old Post 10-20-18 11:54 PM
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msudogs
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90% ?

Saturday, 10/20/2018 (315) UCF vs. (316) E CAROLINA
Favoring: Over on the total.
Play Over - All teams where the first half total is >=31.5 (E CAROLINA) - after 4 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
(36-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (90.0%, +31.6 units. Rating=6*)
The situation's record this season is: (4-0 +4 units).

Old Post 10-20-18 11:54 PM
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msudogs
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Market Moves for LSU-Mississippi State

After opening this game at LSU -6.5, oddsmakers moved to -7 briefly, but it’s now down to -5. The Tigers have landed a majority of bets (56%), but Mississippi State is actually drawing more dollars (60%).

And while the under has been the more popular bet, attracting 60% of tickets, 61% of money wagered is coming on the over, moving this total up from 44.5 to 45.

Old Post 10-20-18 11:58 PM
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msudogs
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Fresno State coach Jeff Tedford mentioned the complexity of New Mexico’s new spread offense with a mix of triple option. Line movement for this game, indicating bigger money moving this game in favor of New Mexico. With quarterback Tevaka Tuioti out for the season with a collarbone injury, Sheriron Jones has passed for 958 yards, 12 touchdowns and six interceptions.

New Mexico is 11th in passing explosiveness and had been stellar on third-down conversions until last week’s loss against Colorado State. Fresno State ranks 123rd on third and long and 114th on third and short. The Bulldogs’ rank of 95th in passing downs sack rate should give the Lobos plenty of time to take shots down the field.

Old Post 10-21-18 12:00 AM
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msudogs
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there is RLM to play both New Mexico &New Mexico St tonight, i'm currently looking at 4 totals, i'm winding down from a nice day, so looking for late movement
GL

Old Post 10-21-18 12:04 AM
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msudogs
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i have played, nothing to back it up....

#377 Texas St +10

Old Post 10-21-18 12:08 AM
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msudogs
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Central Florida (-21.5) @ East Carolina
7 p.m. ET

Rounding out the three most popular bets of Week 8 is Central Florida. The Knights briefly opened at -24 before being bet down to -21. Since then, they’ve moved up to -21.5 behind 80% of bets and 74% of dollars.

Why the public loves UCF: In its past two games, East Carolina has been outscored, 91-26, by Temple and Houston. With the Pirates now facing the 10th-ranked team in the country, why would the public expect anything other than another blowout?

Old Post 10-21-18 12:12 AM
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msudogs
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play the Wizards pk

Old Post 10-21-18 12:44 AM
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msudogs
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there is a line freeze with Ohio St/Purdue

Old Post 10-21-18 12:48 AM
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msudogs
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Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting, but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.

Old Post 10-21-18 12:48 AM
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msudogs
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1H ?

NTSU 4-3 0-3 L3
UAB 5-1 3-0 H

UAB is 9-2 against the 1rst half line (+6.8 Units) when the first half total is between 25 and 28 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UAB 19.5, OPPONENT 10.7

UAB is 9-2 against the 1rst half line (+6.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UAB 18.7, OPPONENT 9.0

UAB is 13-4 against the 1rst half line (+8.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UAB 18.9, OPPONENT 9.4
UAB is 6-0 against the 1rst half line (+6.0 Units) in October games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UAB 15.7, OPPONENT 8.2

UAB is 21-9 against the 1rst half line (+11.1 Units) after allowing 14 points or less last game since 1992.
The average score was UAB 13.1, OPPONENT 12.2
UAB is 7-0 against the 1rst half line (+7.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was UAB 16.4, OPPONENT 7.0 -

Old Post 10-21-18 01:11 AM
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msudogs
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there is a total freeze on Rice/FIU

Old Post 10-21-18 01:26 AM
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msudogs
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i have played, nothing to back it up....

#377 Texas St +10...........W

Old Post 10-21-18 12:28 PM
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