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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Time: Saturday, October 20, 12:30 UTC kick-off
Venue: Stamford Bridge
Chelsea vs. Manchester United predicted lineups
Chelsea predicted lineup
4-3-3: Arrizabalaga; Alonso, Luiz, Cahill, Azpilicueta; Kovacic, Jorginho, Kante; Hazard, Giroud, Willian.
Chelsea team news:
Antonio Rudiger withdrew from the Germany squad during the international break due to a groin injury, and he is Chelsea’s only injury concern and could miss out.
Manchester United predicted lineup
4-3-3: De Gea; Valencia, Bailly, Smalling, Shaw; Fred, Matic, Pogba, Lingard; Lukaku, Sanchez.
Manchester United team news:
Luke Shaw and Nemanja Matic withdrew from the England and Serbia squads but are expected to be fit.
Chelsea vs. Liverpool expected goals stats
• Chelsea expected goals per game: 1.96
• Chelsea expected goals against per game: 1.07
• Chelsea expected points per game: 1.99
• Manchester United expected goals per game: 1.60
• Manchester United expected goals against per game: 1.37
• Manchester United expected points per game: 1.47
Manchester United have struggled to find any kind of real form this Premier League season, and have been predominantly poor in a lot of matches – something that could prove costly against a strong Chelsea side.
The 3-2 comeback win over Newcastle has meant that Mourinho and United will come into the fixture with a positive mindset, but their performance will have to drastically improve if they are to take anything away from Stamford Bridge.
The Reds have conceded 14 goals in just 8 matches, and their attacking output at present is a long way off their rivals – despite having plenty of talent at their disposal.
Defensively, Manchester United have been the 10th best team in league, conceding 10.78 xGA – an average of 1.34 per game – and have produced just 11.24 xGF – an average of 1.41 per game – which is also the 10th best attacking record in the league, so the stats also look ominous for Jose Mourinho’s side.
Chelsea vs. Manchester United betting: Where is the value?
Eden Hazard is in fine form and Chelsea under Maurizio Sarri are playing consistently well, which is worrying news for Manchester United.
Chelsea are available on the -0.5 and -1 handicap at 1.900* and could provide value at that price should they continue to play in the confident and dominant manner that they have this season.
Manchester United have been poor in defence in the Premier League, and it is difficult to see them containing Chelsea for 90 minutes. The Blues have an array of attacking talent at their disposal and will come into the match confident they can penetrate the Manchester United defence, especially with home field advantage.
Maurizio Sarri is getting the most out of Eden Hazard, and the Belgian international is the stand‑out player in the Premier League at present so will offer a constant attacking threat for the London club.
Despite their poor form Manchester United are always capable of scoring in any fixture and with attacking talent themselves such as Paul Pogba and Romelu Lukaku, so backing over 2.5 goals 1.877* could provide some value to bettors.
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10-20-18 11:44 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Sweden
Djurgarden v AIK Stockholm | Sunday 21st October 2018, 14:00
At one stage earlier in the season, it looked as though Djurgarden would really threaten the top spots in the Swedish Allsvenskan. However, after suffering defeat in the Europa League play-offs to Ukrainian outfit Mariupol, they domestic form has taken a bit of a nose dive.
Eighth in the table is anything but disastrous, but it is firmly mid-table and they very much have nothing to play for entering the final five matches of the current campaign. But one thing they would love to do is to put a pent in AIK’s title challenge; their biggest rival.
This match is known as Tvillingderbyt to locals; the Derby of the Twins, given how both were founded in Stockholm within a few weeks of one another. Nevertheless, if the league table and form guide is anything to go by, then AIK should continue their amazing run of form.
Only once have AIK suffered defeat this season, and are potentially only a few more wins away from lifting the league title for the first time since 2009.
A strong defence has been the bedrock to AIK’s success, letting in only 14 goals over the 25 games so far. They are no slouches in front of goal either, as you’d expect for a side in control of the league crown destiny. Only Hacken and Hammarby have scored more than they have.
The Tele2 Arena has been a good hunting ground for AIK in recent times. They’ve won on their last two visits across the city, and four of the last six.
There is also the bad home form of Djurgarden at this moment in time to take into account. They last tasted success in front of their fans all the way back in late July when defeating Hacken 2-1. That makes it only win in their last eight at home in all competitions, losing three of the past four, including a 1-0 loss to Brommapojkarna, who are in the bottom three.
Whilst motivation will be high to improve that against a big rival, that is easier said than done, and AIK are clearly the best Swedish team this season. Djurgarden seem to reserve their best football for playing away from home, where they have the fourth best record in the top flight.
AIK are just simply a very effective team under the guidance of Rikard Norling, under whom the club won promotion out of the second tier back in 2005. He also won the league title when manager of Malmo in 2013, so he knows what it takes to win the biggest honour in Swedish football as well.
60% of AIK’s matches has seen them earn a clean sheet, whilst they’ve only failed to score in 8% of their clashes as well. Eight of Djurgarden’s home matches have failed to beat the 2.5 goal line, but AIK thrive when things get tight. Nine of AIK’s away games have been below 2.5.
We could go down the 2.5 route, as derby games can often be close affairs. However, five of the last eight head-to-head with Djurgarden at home have beaten this, so we’d rather steer clear of that.
Therefore, we’ll play it relatively safe and go for the straight AIK win, which pays 1/1 (Betway). It won’t be often to get AIK at a price like this considering they are fairly comfortable at the top of the table. Only the local derby element has increased their price compared to if this was two teams meeting without the history attached.
AIK are certainly the better team as things stand and they need the points much more.
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10-21-18 12:46 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Everton v Crystal Palace | Sunday 21st October 2018, 16:00 | Sky Sports
At the start of the season, I stated that I expected Both Teams To Score backers to be healthily rewarded if they targeted Everton games. At Hull and Watford that seemed to be the case for Marco Silva and the Portuguese hasn’t disappointed on Merseyside, with six of his eight matches seeing both sides find the net.
Everton’s recent resurgence – they’ve won their last two matches – coupled with the fact that Crystal Palace have won just won of their lost seven matches will surely mean that there will be plenty backing the Toffees at a best price of 17/20.
I certainly wouldn’t put you off such a bet but I would rather take the 3/1 with Bet365 that Everton win and both sides score. Two of Everton’s three victories this season would have seen such a bet rewarded, while Fulham missed a couple of big chances in their 3-0 loss at Goodison.
Palace have only five goals to their name but the statistics suggest that they have deserved more, with their Expected Goals total over seven. Indeed, while the Eagles have been generally disappointing this term, I do believe they were unfortunate not to beat Newcastle at home and they probably deserved a point against Wolves.
I do have concerns about Palace’s goal threat outside of Wilfried Zaha but Everton have looked leaky all season and given that they have conceded 12 in just eight games – with Arsenal being the only member of the Big Six that they’ve faced, you have to fancy the away side to score.
Ultimately, I feel Everton will have too much for Palace and 2-1/3-1 are likely results but I will keep it simple and back Everton and BTTS at 3/1.
Elsewhere, I like the look of Richarlison at 2/1 with Marathon in the Anytime Goalscorer market. The Brazilian has scored in three of his five and a bit matches (he was sent off in the first half against Bournemouth) for the Toffees and this seems like a big price for the hosts biggest goal threat.
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10-21-18 12:48 PM |
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