we get back to a full weekend, let's enjoy folks !
GL

wednesday have not lost a home game this season............just need one for a payout !!

SOC Sheffield Wednesday +261

SOC Sheffield Wednesday DRAW +225

glta

Sheffield Wednesday v Middlesbrough | Friday 19th October 2018, 19:45 | Sky Sports
Sixth in the table Sheffield Wednesday welcome a Middlesbrough side who sit fourth in the Championship standings heading into this round of fixtures.

In the 24 matches that both outfits have played in the league this season combined, only five defeats have been suffered. The Owls have yet to taste defeat playing at Hillsborough, whilst only once have Tony Pulis’ men had a loss on the road.

In games involving Sheffield Wednesday in the Championship, there has been an average of 3.1 goals, whereas for Middlesbrough it is a very low 1.7.

Whilst there is not much to separate these two, the goal line is the one clear difference between them. Something will have to give on Friday night in that regard.

Avoid the over/under approach
Both enter this contest on the back of contrasting outcomes prior to the international break. Middlesbrough suffered their first home loss of the campaign over Nottingham Forest, whereas Jos Luhukay’s team secured the points away at Bristol City.

Quite remarkably, those two goals Boro shipped at the Riverside made up a third of the goals they’ve conceded in the entire Championship campaign to date. By far this gives them the best defence record in the division.

On the flip side, only West Brom, Leeds, Sheffield United, Aston Villa and Brentford have scored more than Sheffield Wednesday. Something really is going to have to give in this match!

With that being the case, you’ll be arguing with yourselves for hours if you’re considering going down the goals route. We did consider Both Teams To Score being a play. This has happened, quite amazingly, in 92% of Sheff Wed’s games in the league so far.

However, Pulis is starting to work his defensive magic with the club this season, as 67% of the time they have earned a clean sheet, also in half of their away meetings. The first goal therefore will be key in this contest.

If Middlesbrough were to secure it, then they will look to do as they did at Ipswich a few weeks ago, and manage the game afterwards. It may be harder to achieve that against a free-scoring Sheffield Wednesday team, but if any side can do so, it is them.

However, Wednesday have rather frustratingly drew four of their six at home, proving that they can indeed be frustrated. Nine of 12 of Sheff Wed’s games have ended Over 2.5 Goals, whilst the same can be said in only 2/12 for Middlesbrough.

As much as you argue for one possibility, you can claim the other. We’ll swerve the over/under column.

A tactical first half
As can be the case following the international break, of which both teams saw players represent their countries, this may take some time to really get into gear. Less than half of the time have these sides been leading their matches at half time.

Pulis will be more than aware that the opposition play in some open matches, and that’ll make them a danger in attack. On the back of a disappointing home defeat, where defensively they looked shaky, the former Stoke boss will also look to make them harder to beat first and foremost.

Luhukay won’t set up his side any differently. This is an approach they will use when either facing top of the table and big rivals Sheffield United or bottom of the table Hull City. This is what makes them a tough outfit to face, and only three sides have managed to be victorious against them in the Championship, but none at Hillsborough.

For all that Middlesbrough are strong defensively, they are not big scorers. Pulis is clearly not entirely sure who his best striker at the club is. This is something he will probably try to explore in the January transfer window.

Britt Assombalonga has found himself in and out of the side, whilst Jordan Hugill is yet to fire on all cylinders so far. Martin Braithwaite tried to leave before the previous window closed, and he is another that Pulis is seemingly not 100% convinced with at present. With that being the case, they need to be especially strong at the back.

Boro are scoring on average 1.17 goals per game, conceding only 0.50.

Interestingly, the average minutes that these teams score and concede suggests it should be a close first half. For scoring, Sheffield Wednesday’s is 47 minutes, whilst for Middlesbrough it is 43. On conceding, Sheffield Wednesday is 49 and Middlesbrough is 44.

Based on these numbers, we don’t expect many goals in the first half. We’ll play it relatively safe and suggest the Half Time Draw, and considering we can get odds-against quotes of 11/10 (Bet365), this is difficult to ignore.

Midfield maestro loves a tackle
Only four players have collected at least five yellow cards in Sky Bet Championship matches this season. Two of which are represented by the two teams on show on Friday night.

Barry Bannan is one of those, and he recently served his one-match suspension. The Scottish international however is an injury concern after being forced off in the Bristol City match. He did not appear for Scotland too, so there is certainly a doubt after his participation. Therefore, we’ll not look to explore any disciplinary markets involving him.

However, the other man in question is Boro central midfielder Adam Clayton. He returned from a ban in the last game when making the bench, Pulis deciding not to break up a winning team. Nevertheless, after the Nottingham Forest loss, the former Huddersfield and Leeds man is very likely to be restored to the midfield trio here.

What is also quite taking is that of those five bookings, Clayton has earned four of those in away matches. You know the score, he is one of those type to make those clever, needed fouls around the halfway line to prevent counter attacks a lot of the time.

Sheff Wed will attack in numbers and at speed, so you can just see this sort of situation playing out again. Clayton is already halfway to the 10 bookings he earned in the league last season, and he is not holding back if the early months of the campaign are anything to go by.

After not starting the last game, and then having the international break, he’ll be itching to get back involved, perhaps too keen at times. Therefore, we’ll have a little play on Clayton To Be Shown A Card. This is available at 15/8 (Bet365).

Considering Clayton has started 10 league games and been booked in five of those, there is every chance that statistic will be increased.

not looking good , need 2 to tie

Chelsea welcoming Manchester United to Stamford Bridge is always one of the clashes to look for in the Premier League calendar – and this Saturday will be no different as Jose Mourinho takes his side to his once-happy stomping ground in King’s Road.

Chelsea are one of the high-flyers in the Premier League at the moment – and are one of the three sides yet to taste a defeat in the opening 8 games so far. The Blues have been very impressive on the pitch – and in adapting to Sarri’s style of football which is already markedly different to the football they played under Antonio Conte in that the West London club are now much more expansive, in control of the ball and also surprisingly a touch more exposed at the back, as the trade-off.

With 20 points on board, Sarri’s outfit come off the back of an impressive streak of wins – including the result against Liverpool in the League Cup, showing how ready they are for a trophy push under the Italian. In playing to the strengths of their best forward players, Chelsea do look like they are capable of beating any side, and a wounded and out-of-form Manchester United should not threaten them on Saturday, going by the form of both sides so far.

Manchester United have struggled at Stamford Bridge in the best of days and it is notable that Chelsea are the side they have lost to – more times than any other in the Premier League throwing light on how difficult a place they have found Stamford Bridge to be historically, to get a result.

Under Jose Mourinho, their fortunes have not been improved as they suffered their heaviest loss under him in West London two years ago, in addition to getting beat by a narrower margin (1-0) last year, even in a campaign, they finished ahead of them.

With Chelsea now clearly in better shape, it is an uphill task for Mourinho and one he is likely to approach in the only manner he is comfortable with: i.e to avoid defeat. United’s back four has been uncommonly leaky this season, having conceded 14 goals in 8 (4th worst defence in the division), meaning something has to give on Saturday between Mourinho’s pragmatism and United’s instability at the back for the visitors to come away with a positive result in the weekend.

TEAM NEWS
Antonio Rüdiger withdrew from Germany’s squad during the international break and is a doubt for Chelsea on Saturday.

Scott McTominay, Marouane Fellaini, Ander Herrera, and Nemanja Matic are all doubts for Manchester United. Marcos Rojo and Jesse Lingard are expected to miss out once again for the away side, while Alexis Sanchez is a fitness concern after returning late from international duty with Chile. Luke Shaw, who has recently signed a contract extension at Old Trafford, is expected to start at his preferred left-back role for the away side.

INTERESTING NUMBERS

Chelsea’s solitary defeat in the past 16 Premier League meetings at Stamford Bridge came in October 2012 when they had two players sent off (W10, D5, L1).
Manchester United haven’t won a competitive fixture away to Chelsea in six attempts since Sir Alex Ferguson retired at the end of the 2012-13 season, drawing once and losing five times.
The Blues have won 10 and lost just one of their past 15 Premier League matches.
Eight of Chelsea’s 18 league goals this season have been scored after the 75th minute.
KEY MEN
Eden Hazard – Chelsea

Being the division’s top scorer with 7 goals to his name, Eden Hazard is the obvious game changer for Chelsea. His goal against Liverpool in the League cup summed up what he can do, to turn a game on its head and will once again prove to be a menace against a Manchester United back five – that is bereft of any confidence and cohesion. Much of the outcome on Saturday will hinge on how Hazard is going to deal with his marker on the day.

Alexis Sanchez – Manchester United

A few days ago, I penned a piece on how Mourinho can regain his mojo by playing Alexis Sanchez centrally – just behind the striker, where he can have the maximum impact in front of goal. Sanchez, after a forgettable start to life at Manchester United, came on at Old Trafford in a difficult period and scored the winner in a game where they were down 2-0 for 70 minutes of the match. That is not to be taken lightly.

Manchester United indeed have issues and that win only papered over the cracks but at the same time, they are not a bad side at all; and they are far from it. With Lukaku not in scintillating form up front, it would not kill the Portuguese to throw a curve ball on Saturday by playing Sanchez in a more central area where he can constantly be on the lookout for the final ball and unsettle their defenders and latch on to any moment of weakness shown in the Blues’ defence. This is the only way they can hurt Chelsea on Saturday.

PREDICTION
I cannot see anything other than a fairly comfortable home win on Saturday.

Chelsea 2-1 Manchester United

Chelsea ML
Chelsea o2.5

Definitely a homer bet, lol

62% on Chelsea (-135)
27% on Man Utd (+430)
11% on Draw (+290)

The Premier League returns this weekend after a week off due to the international break. One of the standout fixtures will be taking place at the London Stadium, as West Ham welcome Tottenham in what will be a fiercely-contested fixture. A resurgent home side will be hoping to prove their lofty ambitions with a positive result against one of their local rivals. Meanwhile, the visitors need a strong performance to show that they can compete at the top of the league for another season.

It was a slow start for West Ham United this season. A lot was expected from the club after an ambitious summer of recruitment and the appointment of one-time Premier League winner Manuel Pellegrini as manager. They are in the bottom-half of the table, but good performances against Chelsea and Manchester United showed their quality. It was a setback to lose against Brighton before the international break, but they will be motivated to bounce back on Saturday.

Tottenham have been on an upwards trajectory under Mauricio Pochettino since he was appointed as manager, but the first couple of months of the new season have been underwhelming. They aren’t being talked about as one of the title contenders and their Champions League status is already under threat. They haven’t been helped by a lack of new arrivals during the summer and an injury crisis. However, supporters will have been hoping for more from the current crop of players. A good performance on Saturday could kickstart their campaign.

INTERESTING STATS
West Ham have only kept one clean sheet in the Premier League this season. That came against Chelsea.

Tottenham have scored in every match they have contested this season across all competitions.

KEY MEN
Anderson


West Ham showed ambition during the summer with a number of high-profile arrivals. It was always likely to take time for the new signings to settle in at the club, but Felipe Anderson has already made an impression. The Brazilian has been tipped for big things for a long time and it was expected that he would end up at a bigger club. However, inconsistency plagued his game and his career started to stagnate at Lazio. The move to West Ham may only be seen as a stepping stone for the attacker, but it should provide the supporters with plenty of excitement during his time with the club. He has a goal and an assist to his name so far, but his overall contribution has been impressive. There is more to come from him and Saturday provides him with a stage to show his talent.

Kane

The England captain enjoys playing against West Ham. Kane has scored seven times against the Hammers and he will be looking to improve that record this weekend. A lot has been spoken about the striker and his level of performance this season. It is obvious that the amount of games he has been asked to play has affected his output. However, he gave a good performance for England against Spain, despite failing to get on the score-sheet. He is often a slow starter in campaigns and he will be looking to have more of an influence in the run-up to Christmas. West Ham haven’t been able to keep many clean sheets and Kane will be the player that they fear on Saturday.

TEAM NEWS
Robert Snodgrass, Arthur Masuaku and Javier Hernandez are all doubts for the visit of Tottenham. Andy Carroll is closing in on a return, but he won’t be fit until the end of the month. Meanwhile, Carlos Sanchez and Jack Wilshere remain on the sidelines.

It is hoped that Christian Eriksen and Mousa Dembele will be available for the visitors. Dele Alli is unlikely to feature, while Jan Vertonghen won’t return until December. Victor Wanyama and Danny Rose are both doubts.

VERDICT
It is going to be difficult for Tottenham, especially if a couple of their important players aren’t back to take their place in the starting eleven. Pochettino’s men haven’t impressed this season and they will be at risk of dropping points against an improving West Ham team. There is likely to be goals on Saturday as both teams have strong attacks. A score draw looks to be a good bet, with the home advantage meaning West Ham should take something from the game.

West Ham 2-2 Tottenham

Yeovil v Tranmere | Saturday 20th October 2018, 15:00
On-loan Sheffield United youngster Harvey Gilmour grabbed the only goal of the game as Tranmere celebrated a return to Friday night football at Prenton Park with their third consecutive League Two success, seeing off rock-bottom Macclesfield 1-0.

Gilmour’s third strike in two games was enough to push Rovers into the play-off pack with Micky Mellon’s men now suffering only two defeats in their 13 outings – both by one-goal margins – since promotion back into the Football League. So I’m keen to have Tranmere onside for Saturday’s trip to a depleted Yeovil side.

The Glovers should have Gary Warren back to start at centre-half, although centre-back partner Omar Sowunmi remains sidelined for another 10 weeks. Target man Francois Zoko and skipper James Bailey are also crocked, whilst Sessi D’Almeida is suspended. Wes McDonald and Alefe Santos are doubtful.

What’s more, Shaun Donnellan, Enes Mahmutovic and Rhys Browne have been away on international duty and all three weren’t expected back to full training until the latter stages of the week. Hardly ideal preparation for Darren Way, who’s seen his side slide into a five-match winless run (W0-D2-L3) since their freak 6-0 success against Newport.

The Somerset side shipped two or more goals in four of those five fixtures and the Town boss admitted to the press that his squad hadn’t dealt with the pressures, intensity and pace of playing seven fixtures in three-and-a-half weeks since the last international weekend, suggesting the extra time was welcome.

Even so, Huish Park has been anything but a fortress for the hosts. Yeovil have W1-D4-L1 here in 2018/19, and returned W9-D9-L11 on home soil since the start of last season – a win percentage of only 31%. With that in mind, plus their injury concerns, I’m happy to oppose Town here.

Tranmere can be backed at 13/14 (188BET) off a scratch 0 start on the Asian Handicap line. We’ll see our stake returned should the Super White Army record a stalemate with Yeovil, with an away win returning profit. The only way in which our bet loses is if the Glovers record an unexpected victory.

Rovers had scored twice or more in four of their six road trips since promotion and the arsenal available to Mellon in the offensive third – top League Two goalscorer James Norwood, Connor Jennings and Gilmour – should prove decisive on Saturday afternoon.

Forest Green v Cheltenham | Saturday 20th October 2018, 15:00
Forest Green have been a regular feature in my Football League columns this season and the Green Devils are back on the menu for Saturday’s crunch Gloucestershire derby against near neighbours Cheltenham, a showdown comically labelled as ‘El-Glosico’.

Mark Cooper’s men fell to their first League Two loss of the campaign last time out, conceding a sickening 97th minute goal to Northampton. Reuben Reid had given Rovers a first-half lead before the Cobblers turned the tables after the interval, scoring twice to secure maximum points at a blustery Sixfields.

Forest Green could and should have been out of sight before breaking the deadlock. Reid, Dayle Grubb, Liam Shepherd and Lloyd James all came close without success and the Green Devils’ profligacy eventually proved their downfall as they failed to see out Northampton’s aerial bombardment.

Cooper was surprisingly philosophical about the gut-wrenching defeat but promised to right the wrongs for this weekend’s meeting with the Robins. Without the wind impacting on Rovers’ preferred possession-based style of play, an improvement and immediate reaction is expected from the hosts.

Stalemates have been the Nailsworth club’s Achilles heel this term. Forest Green have been held in eight of their 13 league outings, with the early season departure of long-term top scorer Christian Doidge taking a slice off their clinical edge and finishing ability. Nevertheless, I’m confident results will start to flow.

The Green Devils have been dominating the bulk of their league contests, returning a 63% xG from open play ratio. Only Cambridge have attempted more efforts at goal, while only four sides have fired in more attempts from inside the penalty box. Cooper’s charges have only once failed to score this season.

FGR are also performing excellently at the back. Of the 12 goals conceded, four (33%) came via penalties and one from a shot from outside the penalty area. The hosts certainly appear to have solved their defensive concerns from last season by limiting their opponents to a measly 0.54 xG from open play per-game.

So there’s plenty to be positive about and a return to their New Lawn home should stand the Green Devils in good stead. Over Rovers’ past 16 games, they’ve claimed W8-D5-L3 as hosts on League Two duty, making the 10/11 (Betway) on a home success an appealing play.

Cheltenham were given a week off following the postponement of their clash with Yeovil, giving boss Michael Duff time on the training paddock as they bid to end a 20-year winless streak against their local rivals. The Robins come into this contest on the back of seven defeats from their first 12 matches, picking up two points from their most recent five (W0-D2-L3).

Town were easily brushed aside by MK Dons (0-3) in their last encounter and have lost all seven meetings with the current top-half, scoring only twice. No fourth-tier team has scored as few goals as Cheltenham (9), or landed as few on-target efforts, with the visitors badly missing Mo Eisa in the final-third.

Considering the Robins are averaging just a 40% xG from open play figure, and have lost 19/27 (70%) trips to top-half teams since the start of 2016/17, I’m happy to get against them here at the odds on offer.

Charlton v Barnsley | Saturday 20th October 2018, 15:00
Barnsley showcased their strength in depth when turning over Luton 3-2 in front of the Sky Sports cameras last Saturday. The Tykes, missing injured top scorer Kieffer Moore, plus Wales goalkeeper Adam Davies and Australia midfielder Kenny Dougall, move into third as they outplayed and overwhelmed the Hatters.

Luton boss Nathan Jones admitted a draw would have been grossly unfair on Barnsley, who won the shot count 15-6 with 12 attempts fired in from inside the penalty box. Although the Yorkshire outfit are five points off the pace (with a game in-hand), the Tykes are now 6/4 favourites to clinch League One glory.

It’s difficult to argue with the odds-makers there. Daniel Stendel’s squad are dominating the performance data, boasting an exceptional 79.7% Expected Goals from open play ratio, as well as registering the most shots, on-target efforts, and strikes from inside the penalty area despite playing a game less than their rivals.

On the ball, Barnsley are slick, enterprising and incisive. George Moncur and Brad Potts are regular headline-makers from midfield, whilst the return to full fitness of Moore gives the attack the clinical edge required to gobble up their numerous clear-cut opportunities. Defensively, the Tykes press you into submission.

However, I want to focus on their offensive strengths here with Barnsley to score Over 1.5 Goals too good to turn down at 11/10 (Betfair) quotes. The visitors’ assistant Andreas Winkler has confirmed they’ll continue to play two up top – most likely in a 4-4-2 system – as they look to dictate the contest.

This encounter should also play into their strengths with Charlton unlikely to sit back, cede possession and put numbers behind the ball. Barnsley have shown in a statement 4-0 success at Peterborough how effective they can be when facing the division’s leading lights, whilst they’ve also scored twice or more at Fleetwood, S****horpe, Rochdale and Bradford on their travels.

Indeed, this selection has provided profit in seven of their 11 outings under Stendel’s watch, and although the Addicks have conceded just seven goals in six matches at The Valley, only Fleetwood have been silenced in South London as Wycombe, Shrewsbury, Plymouth, Coventry and Posh have all notched here.

Lee Bowyer’s boys have stalled recently, picking up a solitary point from a possible nine. But most alarmingly, Charlton have shipped nine goals in those three matches with the boss labelling the defending as ‘school-boy’ and ‘kid’s stuff’ following their defeat to Coventry.

The hosts continue to suffer from defensive injuries, mind. Patrick Bauer and Lewis Page remain sidelined, and their absences, coupled with Krystian Bielik unavailability is forcing Bowyer into fielding a makeshift backline. The latter is available again, although the Pole hasn’t played since mid-September.

I’ve no such concerns about Charlton in midfield, nor in the final-third, and should the Athletic step up a gear, they’ll fancy their chances of giving Barnsley a test. However, the home side are giving up 7.50 shots from inside the box per-game and such charity may prove their downfall on Saturday afternoon.

GAMES SINCE A 0-0 DRAW

51 Fulham
47 Brechin
43 Crawley
42 Accrington
41 Spurs

Bournemouth v Southampton | Saturday 20th October 2018, 15:00
Rewind a decade or so and I doubt that even the most optimistic Bournemouth fan could believe that they would soon be even-money to beat south coast rivals Southampton in a Premier League game.

That is exactly the position they find themselves in this weekend, however, as they are firm favourites to hand another defeat to beleagured Saints boss Mark Hughes.

While I could not oppose the Cherries here, my concern – as ever with Southampton – is that a side with that much ability cannot continue to produce such poor results.

Instead, I shall turn my attention to the goals market, which isn’t too surprising when these two sides matches have combined for 48 goals across 16 games this term. Rather than back goals or Both Teams To Score, it is a late goal that I like the look of.

There have been six goals scored in the 85th minute or later in Bournemouth’s eight league encounters this season, with five in Southampton’s.

Marathon are offering 49/50 on a goal scored in the 74th minute or later and I believe this to represent excellent value. Such a bet would has obliged in 11 of their 16 combined matches this campaign and if you want to go back a little further, it would have enabled you to enter the winners enclosure in 26 of the Cherries last 46 top-flight matches (57%) and nine of the Saints’ 16 games (56%) under Hughes.

I watched Bournemouth against Crystal Palace a couple of weeks ago and was impressed with their desire to win the game late on, missing two big chances before the Eagles eventually succumbed.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a similar scoreline in this match as it enters the closing stages and would not back either side to simply see the game out were they a goal to the good.

They have just four clean sheets between them this season, with Bournemouth’s coming against a goal-shy Cardiff on the opening day and a Watford side who played with 10 men for the majority of the game.

Southampton’s came against Burnley and a Wilfried Zaha-less Crystal Palace, and on both occasions they were indebted to Alex McCarthy for such an achievement.

I expect goals and late drama at Dean Court, so take the 49/50 with Marathon on a goal in the 74th minute or later.

My long shot also arrives from Dean Court as I’ll be backing Bournemouth to win 2-1. This is 17/2 with BetVictor and in a game in which goals are expected, I think this represents excellent value.

Bournemouth recorded this result in their last home match against Crystal Palace and I expect a similar type of encounter here.

Southampton have already lost in this manner on two occasions this term and I feel that there is more than an 11% chance that they manage a third this weekend.

West Ham v Tottenham | Saturday 20th October 2018, 15:00
Sometimes you look at a price and believe it’s wrong but don’t have too much data to back up such a belief and that is the case at the London Stadium this weekend.

I am aware that going back to the start of last season, Tottenham have won 11 of their 17 matches away to sides outside the Big Six but I simply cannot back them at odds-on quotes here. I feel that their return of 18 points from eight games rather flatters them and they have been beneficiaries of a relatively easy start to the season.

Additionally, I believe that West Ham deserve more than the seven points they have earned to date and they were particularly unfortunate to lose at Brighton last time out.

The Hammers have beaten Manchester United and drawn with Chelsea at home this term and they are certainly the kind of side who produces an improved performance against the better sides.

The likely return of Christian Eriksen makes me less certain of a home victory so I will air on the safe side and take the 39/19 with Unibet on West Ham in the Draw No Bet market.

In Marko Arnautovic, Felipe Anderson and Andriy Yarmalenko, the East London outfit have the personnel to hurt Tottenham. I certainly feel they will score on Saturday afternoon and think that’ll be enough to ensure they avoid defeat.

This tends to be a bigger game for West Ham supporters than Tottenham fans and I wouldn’t rule out a third home victory in four games against one of their biggest rivals.

Chelsea v Manchester United | Saturday 20th October 2018, 12:30 | Sky Sports
Odds as big as 17/4 on Manchester United to win at Chelsea is an indictment of how far the Red Devil’ have fallen. It took a rousing second-half display to come from 2-0 down to beat Newcastle a fortnight ago, and any momentum taken from that could’ve been lost due to the international break coming straight after.

Jose Mourinho will hope that isn’t the case as he goes back to his old stomping ground. The manager that first arrived at Stamford Bridge in 2004 brought new and innovative ideas, however football is ever-changing and many argue that he has failed to move with the times.

Mou goes into this clash with doubts over the fitness of central midfield quartet Nemanja Matic, Andre Herrara, Scott McTominay and Maroune Felliani leaving them potentially light in the middle of the park. History has seen Jose bring in the likes of Marouane Felliani and Herrara for games away to the Big Six in order to bulk out that midfield and play a physical game. Their absence will be a blow.

In the other dugout, Maurizio Sarri has taken to the English top-flight like a duck to water and his players have adapted to his style impressively. Eden Hazard has been the shining light scoring 7seven goals this season, and his partnership with Olivier Giroud has been slick on the eye with the Frenchman helping out by topping the assist chart with four.

Goals on the agenda?
8/11 quotes on the hosts do look justified all things considered but I’m happy to take a goals based angle here. We associate Mourinho teams with low-scoring games however this season has seen that switch quite dramatically; the Red Devils are posting an average of 3.34 goals in their games on the Expected Goals metric.

Chelsea are seeing 2.77 on the xG standings so goals could be on the agenda at the Bridge.

Both Teams To Score has been chalked up at 4/5 with Matchbook and that catches the eye. The aforementioned injuries in defensive midfield for the visitors may mean they have to play in a more offensive fashion, in addition 6/8 of United’s games have seen BTTS cop.

It hasn’t been so prevalent in Chelsea games but the underlying performance data shows their opponents have been slightly profligate in front of goal and the Blues have been a tad lucky.

Oppose ill-disciplined Red Devils
The discipline levels between these two is also eye-opening. Chelsea are a fairly unaggressive and their keep-ball ethos means they tend to get fouled more than they foul themselves. This has seen the Blues pick up just the five yellow cards this season.

It’s the opposite when looking at Man United; they’re a much more aggressive side and don’t mind taking a card when they have to. They’ve picked up 14 yellows and one red and that makes it a mismatch in the bookings market.

United are fair 8/13 favourites to pick up the Most Bookings in this encounter but I’m happy to take them on the -1 line on the Card Handicap given the fact they’re away from home

This weekend's biggest-priced outsiders:

40/1 Burnley
12/1 Hamilton
12/1 Huddersfield
7/1 Hibs
23/4 Leicester
5/1 Cambridge
23/5 Watford
17/4 Man Utd
4/1 Fleetwood
4/1 Gillingham
4/1 Northampton
4/1 Walsall
4/1 Stranraer

The international break is a complete buzzkill for soccer fans, but there’s plenty to be excited about once it’s over.

The very first matchup of the weekend will be full of drama between Jose Mourinho’s former club (Chelsea) and current club (Manchester United) — though “current” may not apply much longer to Mourinho and Man U considering with the mounting speculation that he’ll be sacked.

Bettors should also expect a flurry of goals this weekend. Using our Bet Labs historical database, we can easily see that overs have hit at a 57.7% rate when both teams have 10+ days off between games.

Brighton at Newcastle (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET, NBC Sports Gold)
Newcastle Odds: +120
Brighton Odds: +292
Draw Odds: +221
Over/Under: 2 (o-115)
This won’t be a match that catches the eyes of neutrals, but there’s surely value to be had.
Newcastle still haven’t won a match in the EPL this season and are tied for last with just two points. Brighton, on the other hand, have been solid and competitive in every game so far. Yet despite their differences in form, Newcastle enter as the slight home favorites.

What caught my attention is the low over/under. Historically, draws have earned a 40% return on investment when the total closes at 2, and all indications point to this total staying right where it is.

Oddsmakers clearly don’t expect to see a shootout between Newcastle and Brighton, and we could be looking at a 0-0 or 1-1 final.

The Bet: Draw +221

Liverpool at Huddersfield (Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET, NBC)
Liverpool Odds: -303
Huddersfield Odds: +1055
Draw Odds: +435
Over/Under: 2.5 (o-111)
We already know that overs have been incredibly successful after the international break, but what if we pinpoint games even further?

Again, using our historical Bet Labs database, we’re able to discover that overs hit at a 61.5% rate when there’s a big home underdog. That’s certainly the case for Saturday afternoon with one of the league’s worst clubs (Huddersfield) hosting Liverpool.

The one thing that worries me about blindly tailing this system is the health of Liverpool’s forwards. Both Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane are questionable for Saturday which would certainly hinder the bet, but I’ll still be rolling with it.

The Bet: Over 2.5 (-111)

Wolves are a trendy pick, just like Week 8, and their moneyline odds have moved from +102 to -131.
Bournemouth have also seen a considerable shift and they’re essentially even money to beat Southampton.
Tottenham, Bournemouth and Wolves are the most popular moneyline bets of the weekend. Spurs have a road match at West Ham, while Bournemouth and Wolves both play at home