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CNOTES
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Friday, October 26, 2012

Cincinnati at Louisville, 8:00 ET
Cincinnati: 15-5 ATS away off a home loss
Louisville: 6-0 ATS versus good offensive teams

Nevada at Air Force, 8:00 ET
Nevada: 19-8 Over in road games after 1 or more losses
Air Force: 2-9 ATS in home games




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-27-12 01:20 AM
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FRIDAY, OCTOBER 26

Game 107-108: Cincinnati at Louisville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 91.003; Louisville 91.948
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 1; 58
Vegas Line: Louisville by 4; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+4); Over

Game 109-110: Nevada at Air Force (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nevada 87.743; Air Force 81.596
Dunkel Line: Nevada by 6; 62
Vegas Line: Nevada by 3; 66
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (-3); Under




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-27-12 01:22 AM
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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Friday's games
Cincinnati won last four games with Louisville, winning 35-27/28-20 in last two visits here, but Bearcats lost first game last week, getting upset in Toledo in first true road game, despite outgaining Rockets of MAC by 123 yards. Cincy is 2-5 as road underdog under Jones. Louisville is 7-0, with three wins by 5 or less points, and North Carolina is only winning team they've played; Cardinals are 9-14 in last 23 gamea as home faves, 6-7 under Strong, 2-1 this season. Favorites are 11-4 vs spread in last 15 series games. Big East home favorites are 4-4 vs spread.

Lot of close games for Air Force; five of its six games vs I-A opponents were decided by 6 or less points, or in OT; they're 4-1 as home underdog under Calhoun, covering in only game as dog this season, losing 31-25 at Michigan (+21). Last week, Nevada became first team in 21 years that lost after leading San Diego State by 10+ points in 4th quarter; they are 3-1 on road, but had to rally back from down 31-14 at half to win its last road game, at lowly UNLV. Nationwide, home underdogs are 40-45 vs spread in conference games, 4-2 in MWC play.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-27-12 01:24 AM
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NCAAF

Friday, October 26

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Nevada at Air Force: 7 things you should know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nevada at Air Force (3.5, 66)

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-20s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light out of the south.

1. Air Force attempts an average of 10.5 passes per game and 352.7 rushing yards per game (second in the nation). But leading rusher Cody Getz (928 yards, eight TDs) is expected to miss the game with an ankle injury.

2. The Nevada Wolf Pack are a perfect 4-0 on the road this season and are averaging 44.0 points per game over those four contests.

3. The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall and have played under the total in their last four October contests.

4. Nevada’s Stefphon Jefferson is the leading rusher in the nation at 156 yards a game. Air Force allowed Kasey Carrier of New Mexico to rack up a Mountain-West record 338 yards on the ground against them last week. The Falcons allow 222 rushing yards per game, the 13th-worst mark in the nation.

5. “There’s no doubt that Nevada is the most athletic team we’ve played so far this season, even more so than when we went up to Ann Arbor and played Michigan,” Falcons coach Troy Calhoun said Wednesday about the Wolf Pack offense.

6. The Wolf Pack has failed to cover the spread in its last four games overall and is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six vs. a team with a winning record.

7. Nevada allowed just 102 first-half yards before giving up 247 yards and 33 points in the second half of its loss to SDSU last week.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-27-12 01:25 AM
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NCAAF

Friday, October 26

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Cincinnati at Louisville: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cincinnati Bearcats at Louisville Cardinals (-3, 52)

Louisville has a great chance to remain undefeated until its regular-season finale if it simply wins the games it should win, but the No. 14 Cardinals' toughest test of the season until then awaits Friday when they host Cincinnati in the 52nd “Battle for the Keg of Nails.”

All but one of Louisville’s victories has come against teams under .500 and the only other opponent left on its schedule after the Bearcats that owns a winning record is No. 15 Rutgers – another of the 11 remaining unbeaten FBS teams. In order to hold up their end of a potential showdown of undefeated teams on Nov. 29, the Cardinals will need to play better than they did in last Saturday’s 27-25 home victory over two-win South Florida. Cincinnati suffered its first setback last weekend despite not allowing an offensive touchdown in a 29-23 loss at Toledo.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2.

LINE: Louisville opened as big as -4 and has been bet down to a field-goal favorite. The total has come down from 53 to 52 points.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for a 68 percent chance of rain in Louisville with temperatures in the low 50s. Winds are expected to blow north at 8 mph.

ABOUT CINCINNATI (5-1, 1-0 Big East, 3-2 ATS): The Bearcats have eclipsed 425 yards of total offense in every game this season and enter this contest averaging a Big East-best 467.5 yards. Much of the credit for that mark goes to the conference’s best rushing attack that has generated at least 200 yards in all but one game and 250 yards four times. Running back Ralph Abernathy (6.6), running back George Winn (6.3) and quarterback Munchie Legaux (6.0) lead the conference in yards per carry. Winn also ranks second in the Big East with 607 rushing yards.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (7-0, 2-0, 3-4 ATS): A successful ground game will be important to protect a Cardinals' defense that has surrendered a conference-high 14 touchdown passes. Louisville, which ranks second in the conference in rushing, will undoubtedly try to enjoy the same success on the ground against Cincinnati that Toledo did when it gashed the Big East’s second-ranked rush defense for 229 yards. However, the Cardinals can also lean on quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who leads the conference in passer rating (165.2) and ranks third in the nation in completion percentage (73.4).

TRENDS:

* Bearcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Louisville.
* Favorite is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 meetings.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Cincinnati leads the all-time series 29-21-1 and has claimed each of the last four meetings.

2. The Cardinals are 4-0 in games decided by less than seven points.

3. The Bearcats have won five straight and nine of their last 10 against ranked conference opponents, including their last five away from home.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-27-12 01:27 AM
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Friday, October 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Cincinnati - 8:00 PM ET Cincinnati +3.5 500

Louisville - Over 52 500

Nevada - 8:00 PM ET Air Force +3.5 500

Air Force - Under 66 500




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-27-12 01:29 AM
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Klein & Wildcats Meet Doege, Red Raiders In Big 12 Tilt

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Kansas State Wildcats College Football Betting Preview
Date: 10/27/2012, 3:30 p.m. (ET) FOX
Opening Lines: Kansas St. -8, O/U 62½

Texas Tech Red Raiders: Tommy Tuberville and the Red Raiders (6-1 straight up & against the spread) have definitely become a favorite for fans and bettors this season. A week after he and his Raiders defense showed up Geno Smith and West Virginia, Seth Doege filled up the boxscore in a 7-TD passing performance in a 56-53 triple-overtime win at TCU last Saturday. Doege has now rebounded nicely from a 3-INT performance in Tech's only loss to Oklahoma, throwing 13 touchdowns and just one pick the past two weeks. In a conference that boasts some of the very best quarterbacks in college football, Doege has the most TD passes (28) and is fifth nationally with a rating near 170. The defense that allowed just 43 points in its first four games combined has been exposed a bit in the loss three weeks ago to Oklahoma and last Saturday's 3OT win at Texas Christian. This is the fourth consecutive ranked opponent on Tech's slate following OU, WVU and TCU, with current No. 25 Texas on deck next week in Lubbock.

Kansas State Wildcats: Collin Klein smoked Geno Smith and the Mountaineers last Saturday night to keep Kansas State (7-0 SU, 5-1-1 ATS) unbeaten and on the Big 12 fast-track to a BCS bowl. The victory suddenly has Klein a serious part of the Heisman Trophy discussion along with WVU's Smith. Klein began the season as a 50/1 long shot, but is now listed at 10/1 at many outlets thanks to 14 rushing touchdowns and 10 more through the air against just two picks. The Wildcats defense certainly rose to the challenge against Smith and the Mountaineers, forcing his first two interceptions of the season and holding the WVU offense to under half of its offensive average (500.7 ypg). Klein scored four times (3 rushing) in Kansas State's 41-34 win over Tech in Lubbock a year ago to snap a streak of five consecutive wins and covers for the Red Raiders in the series. The Wildcats have beaten the spread just one time in Texas Tech's last seven visits to Manhattan, and the last four in his rivalry have gone 'over' the total.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-27-12 05:40 AM
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Penn State With Huge Challenge Hosting Buckeyes

The Penn State Nittany Lions have rebounded nicely after a disastrous start to the season. They host the Ohio State Buckeyes on Saturday in what is easily their tough challenge to date.

The Don Best Pro Odds is getting ready for another huge week of college football. Penn State is anywhere between 1-point favorites and 1-point underdogs. The total is 50 and kickoff will come at an unusual 5:30 p.m. (ET) from Beaver Stadium.

Penn State (5-2 straight up, 6-1 against the spread) lost its first two games to Ohio (24-14) and at Virginia (17-16) with the Jerry Sandusky / Joe Paterno scandals playing a prominent role in the team’s troubles.

It looked like coach Bill O’Brien had bitten off more than he could chew and had made a huge mistake leaving the New England Patriots’ offensive coordinator job.

O’Brien has done the near impossible though, guiding the team to 5-straight wins and covers, including the last three in the Big Ten. The team is battling Wisconsin (3-1) for the Leaders Division crown and a spot in the conference title game as Ohio State (4-0) is ineligible due to sanctions.

The Nittany Lions resurgence is putting the happy back in Happy Valley, but questions do remain. First, only one opponent has been ranked (No. 24 Northwestern), and they haven’t faced a team with a defense ranked in the top-30 nationally in total yards allowed.

Senior quarterback Matt McGloin has really improved the last five games with 1,331 passing yards, 65.9 completion percentage, and 10 TDs versus just one pick. They are going to need to throw again to win Saturday as the rushing offense (149.3 YPG, ranked 77th) misses Silas Redd who transferred to USC.

Ohio State (8-0 SU, 3-5 ATS) lived on the edge last week with a 29-22 OT home win over Purdue. The Boilermakers led 22-14 before the Buckeyes sent it into the extra session with a touchdown and 2-point conversion with three seconds left.

Quarterback Braxton Miller (head) got knocked out of the game at the end of the third quarter and it was seldom-used junior Kenny Guiton who was the hero late. Miller is listed as probable on the Don Best injury report, which is a major boost for OSU fans despite Guiton’s dramatics.

The Buckeyes didn’t come close to covering the 17-point spread against Purdue and are 1-5 ATS this year as 15½-35½ point favorites. They’re 2-0 SU and ATS in games with small spreads, beating Nebraska at home (63-38 as 2½-point favorites) and winning at Michigan State (17-16 as 2-point ‘dogs).

Miller forms a great running tandem with Carlos Hyde and his passing is underrated even if he did struggle last week (9-of-20, 113 yards and a pick) before being injured.

Ohio State’s defense ranks just 63rd nationally (393.4 YPG) and needs to step up in the hostile environment especially if Miller is still getting the cobwebs out. Penn State’s defense ranks 22nd in total yards (322.7 YPG), but the quality of competition is once again a factor.

The Buckeyes are ranked No. 9 by the AP, while Penn State is just outside the top-25 in that poll. The Don Best Linemakers Poll will be updated today and Penn State is trying to crack its top-30 (OSU is 12th).

The road team has done well in this matchup recently at 4-1 SU and ATS. Ohio State won the last two at Penn State in 2009 (24-7) and 2007 (37-17).

The ‘under’ is 6-2 in the last eight meetings




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-27-12 05:42 AM
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Georgia Bulldogs Up Next For Unbeaten Florida Gators

Florida Gators vs. Georgia Bulldogs
College Football Betting Preview
Date: 10/27/2012, 3:30 p.m. (ET) CBS
Opening Lines: Florida -5, O/U 48

Florida Gators: Will Muschamp's crew is looking better and better with each game, and continues to hold the No. 2 slot of the BCS rankings behind Alabama in the second week of the poll. Florida (7-0 straight up, 6-1 against the spread) is on a 6-game run on the gridiron as well as at the window in SEC play, and can clinch the SEC East title with a victory on Saturday. The latest was a 44-11 whipping of South Carolina last Saturday after being installed only as a 3-point favorite. The Gators benefitted greatly from four Gamecock turnovers, putting up only 183 yards of total offense but also holding SC to under 200. Florida will try and get its running game going once again against a Georgia defense that is a middling 74th in the land stopping infantry attacks. The Gators have won 11 of last 14 in this series to at least pull this series closer regardless of which side you believe for the all-time record (Georgia 48-40-2).

Georgia Bulldogs: Mark Richt's club is designated as the home team for this year's meeting, but the 'Dogs (6-1 SU, 2-5 ATS) will most certainly be at a crowd disadvantage here in the Sunshine State. Georgia hasn't made friends with bettors either, dropping the cash each of the last three and 1-4 ATS since an early win at Mizzou. The Bulldogs barely scored enough on their own to match a -26 spread at Kentucky, and needed an Aaron Murray TD pass midway through the final quarter to secure a 29-17 victory. The running game has grinded to a halt the last two weeks with a combined 192 yards, well below the current 205 per game that still ranks 30th-best in the country. Getting it going again against the tough Gators stop unit that is 10th against the run (97.3 ypg) will indeed be a challenge. The Dawgs snapped a 3-year losing streak against Florida in 2011 with a 24-20 win and cover as 3-point chalk. That game failed to reach the total (47½) to stop a 4-year 'over' run. The Bulldogs are 5-2 'over' through their first seven games.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-27-12 05:47 AM
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Notre Dame Puts 7-0 Mark On Line At Oklahoma

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Oklahoma Sooners College Football Betting Preview
Date: 10/27/2012, 8:00 p.m. (ET) ABC
Opening Lines: Oklahoma -9½, O/U 47½

Notre Dame Fighting Irish: Head coach Brian Kelly has the Irish (7-0 straight up, 4-3 against the spread) back in the National Championship picture after more than a decade of mediocrity. Since opening 0-2 last season, Notre Dame has won 15 of 18 contests, and the 7-0 start to the 2012 campaign is their best since beginning the 2002 season with an 8-0 record. The Irish have failed to cover the last two games as healthy home chalk vs. Stanford and BYU, but their stout defense that is holding opponents under 10 points per game has helped turn a profit for 'under' bettors who have cashed each of the last six contests. Theo Riddick and Cierre Wood provided most of the offense a week ago with each running back going over 100 yards on the ground. The offense hopes to get a spark this week with the expected return of soph QB Everett Golson who is probable after missing the win over BYU with a concussion.

Oklahoma Sooners: Saturday's contest takes place 56 years to the day since Oklahoma skunked the Irish on their field for the Sooners' only victory in the series that ND has a 9-1 all-time lead. The teams met nine times in the 50s and 60s before a 31-season hiatus between the schools came to stop in 1999, Bob Stoops' first season in Norman, and Notre Dame fought back for a 34-30 win in front of Touchdown Jesus. The Sooners (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) have bounced back in a big way with three straight wins and covers since being upset at home by Kansas State in Week 4. Landry Jones and the OU offense have amassed close to 500 yards per game and averaged 52 points per game in the stretch to help send all three games 'over' the total. The defense has also done its part with three takeaways in each game, but that will be difficult to repeat with Notre Dame coughing it just eight times all season and tied for 12th in the country with a +9 turnover margin. Oklahoma's offense will also be facing the 6th-ranked defense in the country (280 ypg), holding opposing QBs to a 97.2 rating (8th lowest).




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-27-12 05:49 AM
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Arizona Wildcats Eye Upset Of USC Trojans

After more than month’s worth of games vs. mediocre opposition with all the intensity of midweek scrimmages, we finally get to see if Southern Cal (6-1 straight up, 2-5 vs. line; ranked No. 7 in latest Don Best Linemakers Poll) can handle a bit of pressure and adversity better than its lone earlier serious test at Stanford.

Meanwhile, if coach Rich Rodriguez thought he had lit the fuse for the dormant Arizona (4-3 straight up and against the number) program in an early September home upset win over Oklahoma State, he can detonate that explosive device within Wildcat Nation with another upset over Lane “Tosh.O” Kiffin (there’s a resemblance, no?) and the loathsome Trojans on Saturday in Tucson.

A quick check of the Don Best college football odds screen notes that visiting Southern Cal is priced as a 6½-point favorite, with the posted total at 65 shaded to the ‘under’ at most Nevada wagering outlets.

Kickoff time on Saturday at Wildcat Stadium will be 3:30 p.m. (ET), with ABC providing regional TV coverage.

Most eyes in this matchup will be focused upon the Trojans, who have qualified as a tad of disappointment to this point in the season. That’s partly reflected in only two spread covers in their first seven games (and no covers in their first four away from the L.A. Coliseum), as well as a capitulation to a physical Stanford team on September 15, the only team with a winning record that SC has faced with a mostly-soft schedule to date.

But the slate turns nasty beginning this week in Tucson, where Arizona is first in a five-game gauntlet to close the regular season that also includes unbeaten Oregon, Arizona State plus old, nasty rivals UCLA and Notre Dame. All of these upcoming opponents, including the Wildcats, have winning records and should be bowl-bound. Moreover, Southern Cal could also participate in the Pac-12 title game the first week of December should it win the South Division of the conference.

Thus, the Trojans also have a clear path to the BCS, but even if they win out, a spot in the national title game would require help from a variety of outside sources, as SC is currently well back in the queue of potential championship game candidates.

We all know about Trojan senior QB Matt Barkley and his decision to return for a final year with Troy rather than make the jump to the NFL last season. But Barkley’s expected cruise to the Heisman Trophy took a detour in the 21-14 loss at Stanford when completing only 20-of-41 passes with no TD passes and two picks. Successive so-so efforts were finally followed by a blockbuster six TD pass performance last week against Colorado, a game in which Barkley completed 19-of-20 passes.

But many Pac-12 insiders insist the woeful Buffs are not much more than a Big Sky-quality opponent, and the thought persists that Kiffin is going out of his way to pad Barkley’s TD pass stats in hopes of currying favor with the Heisman voters.

Of course, Barkley has NFL-caliber wideouts at his disposal in Marqise Lee (60 catches, 8 TDs) and Robert Woods (44 catches, 9 TDs). But neither is gaining expected yardage on their catches (Lee 13.1 ypc, Woods 11.2 ypc), suggesting that Kiffin is again playing the statistics game with his QB, hoping to pad the completion percentage. Barkley is not throwing deep as often as many Pac-12 onlookers predicted, perhaps to the detriment of an offense with two of the best defense-distorting receivers in college football.

Make no mistake, however, this remains a potent attack, with future NFL talent throughout the lineup. Penn State transfer RB Silas Redd is also beginning to make an impact, now with 583 rush yards. Still, despite this overflow of talent, Southern Cal does not rank among the nation’s offensive leaders, a modest 47th in total offense (421 ypg) and 34th in scoring at 34.9 ppg, not chopped liver but hardly running at the capacity many envisioned.

Kiffin’s play-calling, which many believe puts too much emphasis on Barkley’s stats, has come under scrutiny.

Moreover, the Trojan defense, coordinated by Lane’s papa Monte and employing the elder Kiffin’s pet “Tampa Two” cover schemes imported from te NFL, has not been severely tested yet in 2012 after springing many leaks this season. A series of pedestrian offenses have failed to adequately test a stop unit that has nonetheless been on its heels on a couple of occasions, bullet-riddled by erratic Syracuse QB Ryan Nassib (who passed for 322 yards) at the Meadowlands on September 15 before the rebuilt defensive front buckled the following week against the punishing Stanford infantry that pounded out 213 yards rushing.

Now SC is going to face some real offenses, beginning with Arizona’s.

The Trojans have not had to deal with the sort of spread-option employed by Rich-Rod’s 'Cats, the same system that Rodriguez installed several years ago in his most-decorated career coaching stop at West Virginia. Senior QB Matt Scott has proven a perfect fit for the Rodriguez offense and present the sort of dual-threat QB the Trojans have yet to face this season (more so than Washington’s Keith Price).

All Scott has done is rank fourth in national total offense stats, already passing for 2,355 yards and 17 TDs while adding another 265 rush yards. A collection of rangy wideouts led by Dan Buckner and Austin Hill (both 44 catches) could stretch Monte Kiffin’s pass coverage beyond recognition.

Indeed, the Wildcats rank fifth nationally in total offense (549 yards per game) and passing offense (353 yards per game) and have scored 39 ppg, including 59 in the aforementioned early-season home blowout over Oklahoma State, U of A’s signature win this season. The Wildcats surpassed the half-century mark again last week in a 52-17 home blowout over Washington, which had played Southern Cal much closer the previous week in Seattle (losing only 24-14).

The 'Cats do have some defensive issues, however, ranking 104th overall (465 yards per game) and having conceded over 30 ppg. But considering that Arizona has faced the likes of ranked teams such as Ok State, plus Oregon, Oregon State and Stanford, the defensive numbers are not too surprising. And after having seen all of those offenses, confronting SC’s firepower won’t cause Arizona to blink, especially if the blitzing unnerves the slow-footed Barkley.

Series trends between these two are also potentially illuminating, with the underdog side covering the last seven meetings. Considering that Arizona has been the dog side (and spread winner) in six of those meetings, the technical case for the Wildcats has some merit to it as well.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-27-12 05:52 AM
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Unbeatens Collide When Alabama Hosts Mississippi State

Prior to the start of the regular season, talk of a potential showdown between unbeatens in the SEC West focused upon Alabama’s early-November trip to LSU in a rematch of last season’s BCS title game.

Mississippi State? Nowhere to be found in summer speculation about being involved in any showdown of SEC unbeatens after midseason.

But, entering the last weekend of October, here are Dan Mullen’s Bulldogs, without a loss and preparing for arguably the biggest gridiron showdown in MSU history. About all that is missing for the Maroon is the gravely voice of longtime play-by-play man Jack Cristil, who retired last year after 58 seasons as the voice of the Bullies.

Cristil, however, along with everyone else in the SEC and elsewhere in the college football world will be paying close attention to Saturday night’s game in Tuscaloosa between Mississippi State (7-0 straight up, 5-2 against the line; No. 19 in latest Don Best Linemakers poll) and the host Crimson Tide (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS, No. 1 in Don Best Linemakers rankings).

A quick check of the Don Best college football odds screen notes that Alabama is priced as a prohibitive 24-point favorite at the majority of Las Vegas sports books, with the total posted at mostly on 47½. Kickoff time for this SEC West showdown (Game 137-138 on this week’s Don Best schedule) has been switched to the evening at 8:30 p.m. (ET) at Bryant-Denny Stadium, with ESPN providing national TV coverage.

At first glance, the price might seem a bit heavy, considering the respective straight-up records of the two sides. But we don’t have to dig too far into the weeds to understand why 'Bama is laying such a heavy price. No one has caused the defending national champion Tide to as much as blink this season, as Nick Saban’s squad had manhandled even its supposed toughest challengers, such as Michigan and Tennessee, vanquished by a combined 85-27.

Moreover, MSU’s 7-0 break from the gate has been compiled against a slate of less-then-impressive opposition, including three non-conference foes from the Sun Belt as well as lower-division Jackson State. Even the Bulldogs’ SEC tests have been rather easy, having beaten three of the winless teams in conference play Auburn, Kentucky and disappointing Tennessee. Lots of folks in the region expect Mississippi State to get its comeuppance this week.

For the Bulldogs to have a chance, junior QB Tyler Russell has to continue in mostly mistake-free mode. Russell, piloting more of a short-pass, ball-control version of the Mullen spread than in previous years, has tossed only one pick as opposed to 15 TD passes, and limiting mistakes will be a necessity for MSU to stay within earshot on Saturday.

Indeed, the Bulldogs’ +17 turnover margins ranks as the nation’s best entering this week.

Russell, however, is also going to have to solve an Alabama defense that has not skipped a beat after so many of last year’s starters moved on to the NFL. All Saban’s 2012 stop unit has done is lead the nation in rushing (58.7 ypg), total (195.6 ypg), and scoring (8.3 ppg) defense. And since last season, only one team (Georgia Southern, if you can believe it) has scored more than 14 points on defensive coordinator Kirby Smart's defense.

Moreover, whatever advantage the Bulldogs have in TO margin is negated against this foe because, among other things, Alabama also ranks third nationally in the same category (at +14). And the Crimson Tide offense, operating behind perhaps the nation’s best OL, is scoring more points than it did last year, too, tallying 41 ppg while its rushing offense is gaining nearly 220 yards per game behind RBs Eddie Lacy (570 YR) and frosh sensation T.J. Yeldon (565 YR).

Meanwhile, one-upping Tyler Russell, Bama junior QB A.J. McCarron is now working on a stretch of 239 passes without an interception since late last season and has emerged as a possible Heisman candidate while completing 69 percent of his passes, with 16 TD tosses and no picks.

The Tide has not lost to MSU since 2007, when Saban’s first 'Bama team fell to a rugged Sly Croom-coached Bulldog outfit by a 17-12 scoreline in Starkville. Since then, Alabama has won the last four meetings by a combined 117-27 margin. The Crimson Tide covered the number in the first three of those meetings before barely failing to do so in last year’s 24-7 win (as an 18-point favorite) at Starkville. If there is a technical note of caution for Tide backers this week, it’s that the road team has covered the spread in the first seven Alabama games this season, including three spread failures by the Tide in Tuscaloosa.

Totals-wise, note that MSU has been ‘under’ in five of six decisions in 2012, and all five meetings between the sides since Saban arrived at 'Bama in 2007 have been ‘under’ as well.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-27-12 05:55 AM
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CFB | NOTRE DAME at OKLAHOMA
Play Over - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CFB | INDIANA at ILLINOIS
Play Against - A home team vs. the money line (ILLINOIS) after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games
31-17 since 1997. ( 64.6% | 0.0 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CFB | NEVADA at AIR FORCE
Play Under - Any team vs the the 1rst half total after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | -1.2 units )




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-27-12 06:08 AM
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Tech Trends - Week 9

October 24, 2012


Saturday, Oct. 27
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

NAVY at EAST CAROLINA...Navy dropped 76 on ECU the last time in invaded Greenville. But Pirates won by 3 LY at Annapolis. Mids 30-14 as road dog since late 2002. Navy, based on team trends.

UMASS at VANDERBILT...Dores 9-2 vs. line at home since James Franklin arrived LY and 5-0 as Nashville chalk that span. Vandy, based on team trends.

OHIO at MIAMI-OHIO...Miami-O hasn't beaten Ohio SU since Solich's first season in 2005. Solich had covered five in a row vs. RedHawks until LY's 21-14 win and non-cover. Ohio no covers last 3 or 4 of last 5 TY, however. But Miami-O just 1-6 vs. line this season. Ohio, based on series trends.

BALL STATE at ARMY...Lembo 6-2 vs. line in 2012, 8-3 vs. line away since LY, and Cards 27-12 vs. number on road since 2007. West Point 0-7 SU last seven vs. MAC, including 48-21 loss at Muncie LY. Ball State, based on team trends.

AKRON at CENTRAL MICHIGAN...CMU 4-23 vs. line last 27 for Dan Enos. Road team 7-1 vs. line in Akron games TY (Zips 3-0 away). Akron, based on team trends.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at BOWLING GREEN...BGSU has covered last four TY (all as chalk) as favorite has covered last seven Falc games TY. BGSU, based on recent trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at WESTERN MICHIGAN...IU has covered 4 of last 5 and 9 of last 11 in series. WMU 3-1 vs. line at Waldo Stadium TY but 0-4 as dog in 2012. NIU has covered last 4 in 2012 and is 6-2 vs. line TY. NIU, based on series and team trends.

TEMPLE at PITTSBURGH...Note Owls 19-10 as dog since 2007 (Al Golden and Addazio). Pitt 2-6 as 7 or fewer home chalk since 2007. Temple, based on team trends.

INDIANA at ILLINOIS...Ill. no covers last four TY, and 1-6 as single-digit home chalk since 2010. Indiana, based on Illini woes.

PURDUE at MINNESOTA...Purdue 3-5 as road chalk since 2010. Gophers 8-4 last 12 on board. Slight to Minnesota, based on recent trends.

IOWA at NORTHWESTERN...Iowa won 41-31 LY at Iowa City but NU has covered 3 of last 4 and 5 of last 7 in series. Ferentz 1-1 vs. line away TY but 4-10 in role since 2010. NU, based on team and series trends.

DUKE at FLORIDA STATE...Duke 1-2 vs. line away TY, but Cutcliffe 30-19-2 vs. line since taking over Blue Devils in 2008. Jimbo 3-1 vs. line at home TY but only 6-5 as host since 2011. Duke, based on extended trends.

MARYLAND at BOSTON COLLEGE...Six pretty good efforts in a row from Terps, although just 4-2 SU vs. line in those games. Spaziani no covers last five TY and 1-6 vs. line in 2012. Spaziani 4-12 vs. line at Chestnut Hill since 2010. Maryland, based on team trends.

MISSISSIPPI STATE at ALABAMA...Road team has covered first seven Bama games TY (Tide 0-3 vs. line as host). Bama barely failed to cover vs. MSU LY but had won and covered previous three meetings. Slight to MSU, based on recent trends.

UTAH STATE at UTSA...USU 7-1 vs. line in 2012 and 23-12 vs. line away from Logan since 2007. USU, based on team trends.

HAWAII at COLORADO STATE...Hawaii no wins or covers last four TY, CSU 1-5 vs. line last 6 TY. Slight to CSU, based on team trends.

BAYLOR at IOWA STATE...Baylor 3-5 as road dog since 2010 (but 2-0 TY), ISU 9-5 vs. spread last 14 on board. ISU, based on recent trends.

TEXAS A&M at AUBURN...Chizik 7-13 against number since Cam departed. A&M, based on recent Auburn woes.

CALIFORNIA at UTAH...Tedford 2-1 vs. line away TY but extended road numbers not good (5-10 since 2010, 12-23 since 2007). Slight to Utah, based on extended Cal road marks.

TEXAS at KANSAS...Mack has won and covered big his last four vs. KU, but hasn't played every year since 2004. Mack is 5-1 as road chalk since LY. Texas, based on team and series trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at WISCONSIN...MSU 2-6 vs. spread in what has been a disappointing 2012. Meanwhile, Bielema has covered last four TY. MSU has covered last three (all as dog) in highly-entertaining series. Dog has covered 5 of last 6 meetings. MSU, based on series trends.

COLORADO at OREGON...Ducks have covered last two as Autzen DD chalk after no covers previous eight in role. Buffs 2-12 as road dog since 2010. Slight to Oregon, based on team trends.

NC STATE at NORTH CAROLINA...Home team 8-0 vs. line in Heel games TY. But NCS 28-9 vs. line after fifth game of season under Tom O'Brien since he arrived in Raleigh in 2007. O'Brien has won and covered all five vs. UNC since taking over Wolfpack 2007. NCS, based on team and series trends.

BOISE STATE at WYOMING...Boise 24-7 vs. spread away from blue carpet since 2008. Wyo 3-6 as home dog under Dave Christensen, and road team has covered last three in series. Broncos 12-4 as road chalk since 2010. Boise, based on team and series trends.

UTEP at HOUSTON...UTEP fading TY with covers last 4, and 1-5 vs. line last six in 2012. Cougs 8-3 against spread as host since LY. Houston, based on recent trends.

BYU at GEORGIA TECH...Bronco Mendenhall has covered last six as road dog. BYU, based on team trends.

FLORIDA vs. GEORGIA (at Jacksonville)...Gators hot, with covers last six TY. Bulldogs 4-3-1 vs. line last 8 in series that had previously been dominated by Gators (especially under Spurrier). Richt only 6-12 vs. line away since 2010, and only 4-10 as dog since 2007. Florida, based on recent trends.

KENTUCKY at MISSOURI...Joker 2-10 vs. spread away since taking over in 2010. Pinkel 6-4 vs. line as DD home chalk since 2010 (1-0 TY). Mizzou, based on UK negatives.

UCLA at ARIZONA STATE...Home team has covered last five in series, including pair of big ASU wins in Tempe. Bruins no covers 3 of past 4 TY. ASU, based on team and series trends.

SOUTHERN CAL at ARIZONA...Dog series, with the "short" covering last 7 meetings, and Arizona covering six of those. Tosh.O Kiffin only 2-5 vs. line TY and 0-4 vs. spread away from Coliseum. Arizona, based on series and team trends.

KENT STATE at RUTGERS...Golden Flashes have covered last five TY, although Kent only 1-5 as road dog since LY, and no covers four as non-MAC visitor. Rutgers 14-6 vs. line since last season. Slight to Kent State, based on recent trends.

TEXAS STATE at SAN JOSE STATE...SJSU 6-1 vs. line TY and 9-1 last 10 since late 2011. Spartans 4-1 as chalk TY after 0-5 mark in role past two years. SJSU, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at STANFORD...Dog is 5-2 in Tree games TY, and Stanford only 2-3 as chalk this season. But Leach only 2-5 vs. spread in 2012. Slight to WSU, based on recent dog-in-Tree trends.

OHIO STATE at PENN STATE...O'Brien on 6-game cover streak since opening loss to Solich. Urban Meyer only 2-5 vs. spread last seven TY. Slight to Penn State, based on recent trends.

OREGON STATE at WASHINGTON...Beavers have owned this series, as Riley now has eight covers in a row against Huskies. Riley 3-0 SU and vs. line away TY. OSU, based on series trends.

TEXAS TECH at KANSAS STATE...KSU is 14-6 vs. line overall since 2011 Snyder 3-1 as home chalk TY, Tuberville 2-4 as road dog since 2010. Although Red Raiders have won and covered first three on road TY. KSU, based on recent trends.

SYRACUSE at SOUTH FLORIDA...Road team has covered last three years in series and in fact Bulls have covered 6 of last seven since joining Big East in 2005. But Skip Holtz 0-4 as chalk TY and is just 1-10 last 11 as favorite or pick 'em since mid 2011. Slight to Cuse, based on recent Skip chalk woes.

TCU at OKLAHOMA STATE...If Patterson is dog note 9-3 mark in rare role since 2005. TCU, based on extended trends.

UCF at MARSHALL...Road team has covered last four in series. Herd, however, is 4-1 as home dog since 2010 (1-1 TY). Slight to Marshall, bassed on team trends.

TOLEDO at BUFFALO...Rockets 3-1 vs. line away TY, 11-7 vs. line on road since 2010. Bulls 0-2 vs. line at home TY (road team 6-1 vs. spread first six UB games) and only 11-20 vs. points as host since 2007. Toledo, based on team trends.

TENNESSEE at SOUTH CAROLINA...Spurrier 8-2 last ten on board. Also covered last five at Williams-Brice. Derek Dooley 4-13 vs. line as dog since 2010. SC, based on team trends.

OLE MISS at ARKANSAS (at Little Rock)...Rebs have covered last four and 6-1 first seven vs. points TY, Hugh "Pointspread Cover" Freeze now 16-3 vs. line since LY! Ole Miss, based on Hugh "Pointspread Cover" Freeze trends.

LA TECH at NEW MEXICO STATE...La Tech has won and covered big the last three years vs. DeWayne Walker (total score 130-27). Sonny Dykes 13-1 last 14 on board and has covered all 12 away from Ruston since LY. La Tech, based on team and series trends.

NOTRE DAME at OKLAHOMA...Brian Kelly 3-0 vs. line away TY and his teams are 13-5 as dog (Cincy and ND) since 2007. Stoops 8-6 vs. line at home since 2010. ND, based on team trends.

UAB at TULANE...Wave 15-30-1 last 46 on board since late 2008, also 6-20 vs. line last 26 at Superdome since mid 2008. UAB, based on Tulane negatives.

MEMPHIS at SMU...June Jones 7-13 last 20 and 10-18 last 28 on board. Memphis, however, just 3-6 last 9 on road and 5-11 last 16 as dog. Slight to SMU, based on Memphis negatives.

SOUTHERN MISS at RICE...Ellis Johnson still winless SU (0-6) at USM and Golden Eagles only 2-5 vs. line. Rice 10-4-1 vs. line at home since 2010 and if dog 17-7 last 24 in role at home dog since mid 2005. Rice, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN at NEBRASKA...Bo Pelini just 7-13-1 vs. spread last 21 on board. Brady Hoke teams at SDSU & Michigan now 21-12 vs. number last 32 on board. Michigan, based on team trends.

UNLV at SAN DIEGO STATE...Rebs have now lost 19 straight on road and 2-17 vs. line in those games, Bobby Hauck 2-15 vs. spread away since 2010. Aztecs have covered last 6 and 9 of last 10 meetings. SDSU, based on team and series trends.

FRESNO STATE at NEW MEXICO...Bob Davie has covered last five in 2012 and Tim DeRuyter is 7-1 vs. line in Fresno debut. Lobos 10-2 vs. line last 12 on board. New Mexico, based on team trends.

Saturday, Oct. 27 - Added Games
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

SOUTH ALABAMA at UL-MONROE...Warhawks 6-1 vs. line TY and 9-2 last 11 on board. ULM, based on team trends.

WESTERN KENTUCKY at FIU...WKU 15-1 vs. line last 16 on baord. Cristobal, however, is 8-3 as home dog since 2007. WKU, based on team trends.

NORTH TEXAS at MIDDLE TENNESSEE...MTSU in revenge mode after 59-7 loss LY. Mean Green have covered last two in series after MTSU had covered previous four. Slight to MTSU, based on extended series trends.

TROY at FLORIDA ATLANTIC...Troy has won and covered big vs. FAU the last four years. Owls, however, have covered their last five this season. Slight to FAU, based on recent trends.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-27-12 06:18 AM
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Pac-12 Report - Week 9

October 26, 2012


Saturday - Southern California at Arizona (ABC/ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game

Arizona and head coach Rich Rodriguez could use a signature win, and taking down Pac-12 behemoth USC would definitely fit that bill. The Wildcats have started out 1-3 in conference play, and are quickly fading from the bowl picture. They need two victories to become bowl eligible, and really are likely to be favored in just one of their remaining games. USC covered a giant number last weekend against Colorado, and this week they'll only need to cover six points. USC is just 2-5 ATS this season, but as mentioned they covered last week, and are 2-2 ATS in their past four. Arizona comes in having covered two straight, and they are 4-2 ATS in their past six. In this series, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, but USC is just 1-6 ATS in the past seven battles. In addition, the underdog is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last seven contests between the sides. The under might be a better play, as the number has gone under in four of USC's past five, and the under is 5-1 in their past six Pac-12 games. The under is also 7-3 in USC's past 10 road games against a team with a winning home record. For Arizona, the over is 5-1 in their past six home games. However, the under is 19-6-1 in their past 26 home games against a team with a winning road record. The under is also a perfect 4-0 in the past four meetings in Arizona, and 5-1 in the past six meetings overall.

Saturday - UCLA at Arizona State (FX, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game

This is a battle of two 5-2 teams with major bowl implications in the Pac-12. The Bruins need to get it together if they're going to remain in that picture, or they'll be playing mighty early in the bowl season. UCLA is just 7-17 ATS in their past 24 Pac-12 games, they're just 10-22 ATS in their past 32 games on grass, and just 2-14 ATS in their past 16 games in the month of October. AZ State, on the other hand, is 5-1 ATS in their past six games on grass, 3-1-1 in their past five games in the month of October, and 5-2 ATS in the past seven games overall. However, in this series, UCLA has covered seven of the past nine, though the home team is a perfect 5-0. That's a bit confusing. The total might not be. The under has cashed in seven of UCLA's past eight games following an ATS loss, and the under has cashed in four of their five games overall. The under is also 37-15-1 in their past 53 Pac-12 games. For AZ State, the under is also 4-1 in their past five games overall, and 5-1 in their past six home games against a team with a winning road record. However, the over is 8-3 in the past 11 home games for the Sun Devils, so maybe take the under and bet lightly, especially if you can get it at 58 or higher.

Saturday - Oregon State at Washington (Pac-12 Network, 10:15 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game

The public is in love with the Beavers this weekend, picking them at a nearly 2-to-1 clip to cover in Seattle against the Huskies. The public had similar trust in Stanford a few weeks back on a Thursday, and were smacked by Washington. Love for Oregon State might be warranted, however. First, they get QB Sean Mannion back from injury. He missed the past two games due to a knee injury. QB Cody Vaz did an admirable just leading the team to a pair of wins in his first two collegiate starts, and he is waiting in the wings if Mannion is rusty. Second, Oregon State is a robust 6-1-1 ATS in their past eight games, and 4-1-1 ATS in their past six Pac-12 battles. In addition, Oregon State is a whopping 40-14-1 in their past 55 games in the month of October. For Washington, they are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 home games, but just 2-6 ATS in their past eight against teams with a winning record. In addition, the Huskies are a dismal 13-36-2 ATS in their past 51 games in the month of October. Now, here is the dealbreaker if you were leaning toward U-Dub: Oregon State is a perfect 8-0 ATS in the past eight meetings, and 5-0 ATS in their past five trips to Seattle.

Saturday - Washington State at Stanford (Pac-12 Network, 6:15 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game

This is a game the Cardinal should dominate, as they're a 5-2 team which is battle-tested against a difficult early slate of opponent, against a Cougars team still finding its way. Washington State is 1-3-1 ATS in their past five road contests, and 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight games overall. However, Washington State is 5-2 ATS in their past seven games against a team with a winning record, so they definitely rise for the occasion. Stanford is 5-0-1 ATS in their past six games against a team with a losing record, and they are 20-5-1 ATS in their past 26 games following an ATS win. Stanford is also a solid 13-4-1 ATS in their past 18 Pac-12 games, and have been a bettor's friend by going 35-16-1 ATS over their past 52 overall. In this series, the fave is 5-1 ATS in the past six battles, and the Cougars are an awful 5-12 ATS in the past 17 meetings.

Saturday - Colorado at Oregon (Pac-12 Network, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup One-Star Game

Poor Colorado. They might be regretting their move to the Pac-12 right about now, as they are in the second of a three-game stretch at USC, at Oregon and home to Stanford. Ouch. The Buffaloes were drilled 50-6 last week at SC, and they have now failed to cover in six of their seven games this season. They're an awful football team, and not showing any signs of getting better. Last season, they were punished by UO 45-2. It should be more of the same this weekend, and this game wouldn't even be a one-star matchup if not for the fact it involved Oregon. After some early backdoor covers, and an 0-3 ATS mark to start the season, the Ducks have gained traction and are 3-1 ATS over their past four. While Colorado is 7-20 ATS in their past 27 road games, and 2-10 ATS in their past 12 games a team with a winning record, the Ducks are 23-8-2 ATS in their past 33 tries against a team with a losing record, and 9-4-2 ATS in their past 15 Pac-12 battles.

Saturday - California at Utah (No TV, 9:45 p.m. ET)
Matchup Other Game to Watch

It's ironic this is a game under 'Game to Watch' when there is no television, but anyway. Cal is just 4-9 ATS in the past 13 games, although during that span they ruined a lot of bettors' plans with a sound victory over UCLA. Cal also hasn't played particularly well against team's with a losing record, going 3-7 ATS over their past 10 games in that situation. For Utah, they have bounced back well after a straight-up loss, going 6-1 ATS in the following game. In addition, they are 10-3 ATS in their past 13 games against a team with a losing record. However, the better way to go might be the total. The under has cashed in four straight for Cal against a team with a losing record, and is 4-1 in Cal's past five overall. The under is also 21-8 in Cal's past 29 Pac-12 games. For Utah, the under is 4-1 in their past five conference games, 5-1 in their past six visits from a team with a losing road record, and 5-1 in the past six in the month of October.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-27-12 06:21 AM
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Big Ten Report - Week 9

October 24, 2012

It's the final weekend of October and the Big Ten picture is finally starting to take place. Michigan and Nebraska are the front-runners to represent the Legends division in the Big Ten Championship while it would take a monumental collapse from Wisconsin for the Badgers to miss out on a ticket to Indianapolis. Meanwhile, possibly the two best teams in the conference, Ohio State and Penn State; can't play in the postseason but matchup this week in the "Ineligibowl". ASA has the inside look at all the matchups inside...

Nebraska (-2.5) vs. Michigan - 8:00 PM EST - ESPN2
UN: Last week at Northwestern: W 29-28
UM: Last week vs. Michigan State: W 12-10

The winner of this game gets a head up on the Legends Division race. If the Wolverines win, they will be tough to catch as they would remain undefeated. Michigan's defense has been the best in the Big Ten in conference play. The Wolverines have allowed just 23 points through three games and have allowed opposing offenses to pass for just 126 yards per game (just 4.4 yards per attempt) with two touchdowns and four interceptions. They've also allowed Big Ten opponents to rush for just 91 yards per game on a 2.9 YPC average with no touchdowns through three games. Purdue, Michigan State, and Illinois haven't exactly been lighting it up on offense, but those are still impressive numbers. They'll try to carry that success over on the road against the league's top offense. Offensively Michigan was held out of the endzone last week against MSU, but four field goals was enough to top their rival. The Wolves still have one of the top weapons in the country in Denard Robinson and Nebraska has had its difficulties dealing with dual-threat quarterbacks. After an emotion-charged, physical game against its rival, Michigan will have to reload in a hurry for this week's showdown with Nebraska on the road.

Nothing has come easy for the Huskers on the road, but they buckled down in the clutch and got two touchdowns with under 6:00 remaining to get the win over Northwestern last week. Looking at the stats, it's a wonder how the Huskers didn't win in a blowout. Nebraska had 201 rush yards, a +242 yard advantage, and +12 first downs. The defense really stepped up as the Huskers allowed a respectful 180 rush yards (4.7 YPC) to one of the top rushing offenses in the country. They also held Northwestern QB's to complete just 16-of-37 passes for 121 yards. That was a promising performance against a spread team after allowing 63 points to Ohio State in Nebraska's last game. Next the Huskers will deal with a much more potent offense, but they'll be at home where they are 4-0 this season.

Recent history: Nebraska isn't lacking for motivation here after losing at Michigan by 28 points last season in their first matchup as conference foes. Nebraska turned the ball over three times and was held to just 260 total yards.

Trends: Michigan is just 9-25 ATS in its last 34 conference games and 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 road games. Nebraska is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 home games, but just 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 conference games. The Huskers are also just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win.

Injury report: Michigan CB Ramon Taylor is still listed as the starter on the depth chart after suffering an undisclosed injury last week. Nebraska RB Rex Burkhead is day-to-day after aggravating his left knee injury for the second time in three weeks Saturday at Northwestern.

Penn State (PK) vs. Ohio State 5:30 PM EST - ESPN
PSU: Last week at Iowa: W 38-14
OSU: Last week vs. Purdue: W 29-22 (OT)

This game has been dubbed as "The Ineligi-Bowl" as both squads are banned from postseason play this year. Both teams come in undefeated in league play so this is for the Leaders division lead. Still, without an impact on postseason implication, this game still means a lot to both sides that are playing well. Penn State is playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten and just got done destroying Iowa on the road, a place PSU hadn't won at since 1999. The Nittany Lions have now reeled off five straight wins (5-0 ATS) and have won each game by an average of 20.2 points per game (none by less than 11 points). QB McGloin continued his ascension with 289 yards and two touchdowns last week and he now has 14 TD's and just two INT's this season. RB Belton added 103 rush yards and three scores last week and coach Bill O'Brien's offense gets better every week. Defensively PSU held Iowa to just 20 rush yards on 23 carries and 209 total yards. PSU now ranks 22nd in total defense and 13th in scoring defense. Beaver Stadium will be rocking on Saturday afternoon when OSU comes to town.

This will be the toughest test to date for the undefeated Buckeyes, who barely escaped with a home win over Purdue last weekend. Backup QB Kenny Guiton led the Buckeyes to a game-tying touchdown with three seconds remaining to send the game into overtime - where they won. Guiton may get the start as Braxton Miller remains questionable for this weekend's game (see more below). The Buckeyes haven't been good defensively this season. OSU ranks 68th in total defense, 109th against the pass, and 51st in scoring defense. The Bucks are allowing 31.3 points per game in conference play and they'll face another difficult test against PSU's new & improved offense.

Recent history: It's been a pretty even series history. Ohio State is 4-3 SU & ATS over the previous seven. They've also won back-to-back games at State College by 20 & 17 points, respectively. PSU won this meeting at OSU last season, 20-14. That was the score at halftime and PSU's defense (held OSU to just 139 2nd half yards) and running game (239 rush yards on 6.1 YPC) led the way for the PSU victory.

Trends: OSU is 26-10-1 ATS in its last 37 road games. But the Bucks are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. PSU is on a 6-0 ATS run. The Nittany Lions are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games. In head-to-head trends, the road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and the score has remained 'under' in six of the last eight meetings.

Injury report: Braxton Miller is participating in practice, but head coach Urban Meyer hasn't stated if Miller will play or not this Saturday. PSU LB Joshua Perry and WR Corey Brown both are expected to be fine for the Penn State game after getting nicked up against Purdue.

Wisconsin (-6.5) vs. Michigan State - 3:30 PM EST
UW: Last week vs. Minnesota: W 38-13
MSU: Last week at Michigan: L 10-12

This was supposed to be one of the marquee matchups in the Big Ten this season. But Wisconsin dropped two of its first five games and MSU already has four losses, taking away some of the luster from this budding rivalry. Still, there's no love lost from these two after two meetings last season (more in "recent history" below) and motivation will be high for both squads. The Badgers have gotten back to the ground-n-pound attack over the last few weeks. RB's Montee Ball and James White have paved the way for a three-game winning streak. Ball has 529 yards (7.3 YPC) and seven scores while White has 341 yards (9.2 YPC) and four scores. This offense will face its biggest test, however, when Michigan State's 12th ranked rush defense comes to town Saturday. The defense stepped up again last week and held Minnesota to just 245 total yards as the Badgers retained Paul Bunyan's Axe for the ninth straight year. This underrated defensive unit now ranks 19th in total defense and 21st in points allowed.

MSU has now dropped two straight games and four of its last six overall. Offensively the Spartans are a mess, and things haven't been improving (just 16.5 PPG over the last six games). The running attack appeared to be its strong suit early in the season, but Le'Veon Bell appears to be wearing down under the heavy workload. Over the last four games, he's carried it 91 times for just 3.4 YPC with three scores. QB Maxwell also continues to struggle as he's completing just 55% of his passes with seven touchdowns and five interceptions this season. The defense played well again last week against Michigan, but to no avail. This unit is 5th in total defense and 11th in points allowed. MSU will have to avoid a hangover from last week's loss to rival Michigan and get prepared for another road test here at Camp Randall Stadium.

Recent history: Michigan State has been a thorn in the Badgers side. Wisconsin is 17-4 in its last 21 Big Ten games; two of those four losses are against MSU. However, Wisconsin got some revenge in the inaugural Big Ten title game last season with a 42-39 victory over Sparty. Montee Ball had 283 rushing & receiving yards with six total touchdowns in two games against MSU last year. MSU has covered three straight vs. the Badgers.

Trends: MSU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games. The Spartans are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Wisconsin has covered four straight games and the Badgers are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 home games. The total has finished 'over' in the last six meetings between MSU-Wisconsin in Madison.

Injury report: Badgers coach Bret Bielema said he's unsure if LT Ricky Wagner will be available for this week's game against Michigan State. Wagner injured his right knee two weeks ago against Purdue.

Northwestern (-6) vs. Iowa - 12:00 PM EST - ESPN2
NU: Last week vs. Nebraska: L 28-29
UI: Last week vs. Penn State: L 14-38

Both teams suffered home losses last week and both teams' chances of winning the Legends division just got that much smaller. For Northwestern, it was the second time in three weeks the Wildcats held a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter of a game it lost. NW watched a 12-point lead evaporate against Nebraska. Defensively the Wildcats allowed Nebraska QB Martinez to complete 27-of-39 passes for 342 yards and three scores while the Huskers also rushed for 201 yards (543 total yards allowed). QB Kain Colter barely played last week after being the focal point of the offense during the first half of the season. Colter and Siemian combined to complete just 16-of-37 for 121 yards. NW looks for a bounce-back performance here against the Hawkeyes.

After a big road win at Michigan State, Iowa returned home to a packed Kinnick Stadium for its lone night game of the year and the Hawks laid an egg. Iowa never really challenged PSU, as the Nittany Lions built a 24-0 halftime lead. The Hawks didn't score until a kickoff return for touchdown in the 4th quarter. QB James Vandenberg and the Hawkeyes' offense struggled again. Through seven games, Vandenberg has just three touchdown passes (had 25 in 2011). A couple of notable injuries in the Northwestern secondary should help Vandenberg bounce back this weekend. This unit now ranks 107th in total offense and 103rd in scoring offense. The defense couldn't stop Penn State as the Nittany Lions racked up over 500 yards of total offense and 28 first downs. With how mediocre the Hawkeyes have been this season, with a win over Northwestern, they can manage to linger in the Legends division race with a favorable schedule.

Recent history: Northwestern in 5-2 SU & ATS in the last seven meetings; however, the Hawkeyes won & covered in Iowa City last season, ending a three-year losing streak. Siemian and Colter each passed for a touchdown in a losing effort while Iowa QB Vandenberg led the way for the Hawkeyes with 224 passing yards and two scores.

Trends: Iowa is 36-15-1 ATS in its last 52 games following a loss. The Hawks are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games. Northwestern has covered five straight home games and it is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two and the score has remained 'under' the total in six of the last seven.

Injury report: Iowa starting LT Brandon Scherff will miss several months after undergoing surgery to repair a leg injury suffered in Saturday night's loss to Penn State. Northwestern's secondary could be very thin this week. CB's Nick VanHoose and Quinn Evans are doubtful. VanHoose is the team's top cover man. The good news is that top RB Venric Mark is expected to play Saturday.




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GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

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Minnesota (+3.5) vs. Purdue - 3:30 PM EST - Big Ten Network
UM: Last week at Wisconsin: L 13-38
PU: Last week at Ohio State: L 22-29

Purdue has dropped three straight games against some formidable Big Ten opponents: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. The Boilers still need to win three of their last five games to become bowl eligible and they have a pretty favorable schedule the rest of the way. This week against Minnesota they'll have to shake off the stink of last week's loss to Ohio State. Despite a blocked extra point and a blocked field goal - Purdue held a lead the entire 4th quarter before Ohio State scored the tying touchdown with just three seconds remaining (OSU won it in overtime). It was a strong performance on both sides of the ball from Purdue and just a devastating way to lose a game like that on the road. One of these two is going to break a three-game losing streak. The other falls to 0-4 in league play.

Minnesota Head coach Jerry Kill has committed to true freshman QB Philip Nelson as his quarterback, with oft-injured MarQueis Gray going to receiver. Nelson made his collegiate debut in his start at Wisconsin last week. He had mixed results, throwing for two touchdowns and two interceptions. The Gophers are looking for a scoring spark as Minnesota has scored exactly 13 points in three straight conference losses. They haven't scored over 17 points since mid-September when Gray got hurt. Defensively the Gophers rank 6th against the pass - mostly because opponents have so much success running against them (83rd against the run) that they don't have to pass. Last week Wisconsin ran for 337 yards on 6.1 YPC average.

Recent history: Purdue has won and covered two straight in the series and they are 7-3 SU & ATS dating back to 2000. Last year the Boilers took a 24-0 lead after the first quarter and took a 31-3 lead into halftime. Minnesota managed just 213 total yards and 11 first downs. The favorite is 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these two and the total has finished 'over' in the last four meetings in Minnesota.

Trends: Purdue is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games following a loss. Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.

Injury report: Minnesota WR Gray, whose knee/ankle issues prevent him from being full strength at quarterback, will work at wide receiver for the foreseeable future.

Illinois (-2) vs. Indiana - 12:00 PM EST - Big Ten Network
Ill: Last week - BYE
Ind: Last week at Navy: L 30-31

Both teams have combined to lose nine straight games. But the good news is that one of these two HAS to win this weekend. The Illini haven't been close to a victory over an FBS opponent since the opener. But they've had two weeks to prepare for this one after losing 0-45 to Michigan two weeks ago. Offensively the Illini have nothing going for them. They've scored 21 total points in three Big Ten games, rank 115th in total offense, and have more turnovers than touchdowns this season. The defense hasn't been terrible, but even an elite unit couldn't make up for the offensive deficiencies that this team has.

Sooner or later, Indiana has to pull one of these games out. They've lost five straight games by an average of 5 PPG. Four of the five games have been decided by four points or less including last week's one-point loss to Navy. Indiana held a lead almost the entire game before Navy scored the go-ahead touchdown with 2:05 remaining in the fourth quarter. The Hoosiers tallied 417 yards and 26 first downs, but two interceptions (one returned for touchdown) and the inability to stop the run doomed them in the end. Navy tallied 257 rush yards.

Recent history: Illinois has won and covered four of the last five in the series. The four wins were by an average 26.5 points per game (none by fewer than 13 points). Last year Indiana took a 10-0 lead, but was outscored 41-10 after that in the 21-point loss.

Trends: Indiana is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. Illinois is 0-4 ATS in its last four conference games. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two and the home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.




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ACC Report - Week 9

October 24, 2012

It was another good week in the ACC, as I was fortunate enough to select two winners. I was in attendance at the thrilling UNC-Duke game last Saturday, and Duke was in command for most of the game. However, UNC made a feverish comeback, and actually took the lead briefly. Down 30-26, the Blue Devils ended up winning with a fourth-down play in the final minute in the red zone, sending the unusually large and boisterous crowd at Wallace Wade Stadium into a frenzy.

It could have been an even better weekend had I pulled the trigger on Georgia Tech (-14) at home against Boston College, but I didn't like the Yellow Jackets based upon their overall record, and inability to beat Middle Tennessee at home earlier in the year. I also cooled on Clemson (-8) late in the week, tricked into believing Virginia Tech couldn't possibly be the mediocre team that they have become. However, I am not greedy, I'll take my two victories, and feel very happy with an overall 5-1 mark for the previous week. Let's pick some more winners this weekend! Good luck to all.

Joe Williams's ACC Season Picks:
Period: 8/31/2012 to 10/20/2012
Pick Type: All Picks
Record: 17-7-0 ( 70.8% , +920)

PICK DETAILS
Week Record Total
Week 8 (Oct. 18-20) 2-0 Won (+ 200)
Week 7 (Oct. 11-13) 0-0 - (+/-0)
Week 6 (Oct. 4-6) 2-1 Won (+90)
Week 5 (Sept. 27-29) 3-1 Won (+190)
Week 4 (Sept. 19-22) 3-1 Won (+190)
Week 3 (Sept. 13-15) 3-2 Won (+80)
Week 2 (Sept. 6-8) 2-1 Won (+90)
Week 1 (Aug. 31-Sept. 3) 2-1 Won (+80)

Saturday - North Carolina State at North Carolina (GamePlan/ESPN3, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game

This will be a very interesting game to watch, as there are so many different storylines. The Tar Heels were stunned in Durham last weekend by their normally doormat-like rivals, the Duke Blue Devils. Now, they come home to face their bigger gridiron rival, and Triangle neighbor, the N.C. State Wolfpack. Last season, the Pack beat the Heels 13-0 for their fifth consecutive victory in the series. In most of those games, the Wolfpack have been the underdog, and that is no different this season. N.C. State is a very attractive 7.5-point underdog in this one. While the Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS over their past six home games, the underdog is 12-2 ATS in the past 14 meetings, and N.C. State is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings between these bitter rivals. Keep in mind, North Carolina is also just 2-5 ATS in their past seven games against teams with a winning record, while the Pack is 5-2-1 ATS in similar situations.

Thursday - Clemson at Wake Forest (ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game

The ACC will get a handful of Thursday games, and this week's battle will be a good one despite a deceptive 13.5-point spread. The Clemson Tigers look to remain on a roll as they head into Winston-Salem. Clemson is 5-0 ATS in its past five ACC battles, and 4-0 ATS in their past four overall, including a drumming of Virginia Tech last weekend in Death Valley. On the flip side, Wake is 5-2 ATS in its past seven conference games, including an outright win at Virginia last weekend. However, the Deacs are just 4-9 ATS in their past 13 games against a team with a winning record. One note to really remember is that the home team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings, and Clemson is just 1-4-1 ATS in its past six visits to Wake. In looking at the total, the under is 6-1 in Clemson's past seven games on fieldturf, and the under is 10-3 in Clemson's past 13 road contests and 7-2 in the past nine Thursday games. For Wake, the under is 8-3 in their past 11 games overall, and 5-2 in their past seven ACC battles. In this series, the under has cashed in four straight meetings.

Saturday - Duke at Florida State (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game

The Duke Blue Devils lead the Coastal Division, and this game could potentially be an ACC Championship Game preview, as strange as that sounds. In fact, Duke is the only team in the Coastal Division more than two games over .500, sitting at an impressive and bowl eligible 6-2. However, they have been a tremendously different football team on the road than they are at home. They are 5-0 at home, and 1-2 on the road, outscored in their three trips away from Durham by a combined score of 117-68. However, Duke is 5-1 ATS in their past six games overall, and 12-3-1 in their past 16 games in the month of October. Florida State is just 2-5 ATS in their past seven ACC games, 2-6 ATS in their past eight home games against a team with a winning record, and 1-4 ATS in their past five games overall. Still, this is a dangerous spot for Duke, who needs to prove they can hang with the big boys. The road team is 7-1 ATS in the past eight meetings, but Duke is 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings, and the favorite is 4-0 ATS during that span.

Saturday - Brigham Young at Georgia Tech (GamePlan/ESPN3, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game

This will be an interesting game to watch despite the overall records of the teams. Brigham Young comes in with one of the better defenses in the nation, while the Yellow Jackets are one of the most prolific rushing offenses in the game. BYU is 6-1 ATS in their past seven road games, and 11-4 ATS in their past 15 games overall. Interestingly, though, BYU is 0-4 ATS in their past four games against ACC opponents. Meanwhile, the Jackets are 7-1-1 ATS in their past nine games against Independents. The line trends might be a bit confusing, although at first glance BYU might be a good moneyline play mainly because they have been a better team overall this season. However, the total looks to be more in agreement with an under play. The under is 5-1 in BYU's past six games on grass, 4-1 in their past five overall, and the under is 5-2 in BYU's past seven against ACC opponents. For Georgia Tech, the under is 27-10-2 in their past 39 October games, and 3-0-1 in their past four games against Independents.

Saturday - Maryland at Boston College (ESPN3, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup One-Star Game

Looking at the overall records, Maryland seems like a slam-dunk play getting a point from a 1-6 Boston College club. However, keep in mind that the Terps lost QB Perry Hills (knee) to a torn ACL last week, meaning the club will either hand the reins to true freshman Caleb Rowe or Devin Burns, a redshirt sophomore who orchestrated three straight scoring drives once Hills went down last week. Maryland is 4-1 ATS in their past five games against a team with a losing record, but they are just 5-13 ATS in their past 18 games overall. B.C. is 0-4 ATS in their past four conference games and 0-5 ATS in their past five overall. In the past five meetings, the underdog is 4-1 ATS. The under might be the better play, especially considering Maryland's uncertainty at the QB position. The under is 5-2 in Maryland's past seven ACC games, while the under is 19-6-1 in B.C.'s past 26 games overall. The under is also 10-4 in Boston College's past 14 home games.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

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Florida vs. Georgia

October 26, 2012


The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party has gone the way of the Gators in recent years. In fact, Florida (7-0 straight up, 6-1 against the spread) has won 18 of the last 22 head-to-head meetings against Georgia, which hasn’t won back-to-back games in this rivalry since the 1980s.

As of late Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Will Muschamp’s team installed as a 6 ½-point favorite with the total in the 46-47 range. Gamblers can take the Bulldogs to win outright for a lucrative plus-230 return (risk $100 to win $230).

UF stayed undefeated by spanking South Carolina by a 44-11 count as a 3 ½-point home favorite last Saturday. The Gators were actually out-gained 191-183 in total offense, but they cruised to the blowout victory thanks to a 4-0 advantage in turnover margin.

Jeff Driskel threw four touchdown passes, including a pair of scoring strikes to junior tight end Jordan Reed. For the season, Driskel is completing 66.9 percent of his throws with an 8/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Driskel is also a threat with his legs, as evidenced by 321 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Senior running back Mike Gillislee has been keyed on by opposing defenses recently, resulting in just 104 rushing yards and zero TDs in the last two games.

Nevertheless, Gillislee is still fifth in the SEC in rushing with 652 yards and seven TDs. He averages 4.7 yards per carry.

Florida doesn’t blow any opponent away with offensive firepower, but it has established a recipe for success bases on defense, special teams and taking care of the football. Speaking of special teams, the Gators might have both the best place-kicker and punter in the nation.

Kyle Christy had a huge impact on the win over the Gamecocks, flipping the field several times while averaging 54.3 yards per on seven punts. Caleb Sturgis, who has been injured and unable to play in two straight games against UGA, has excellent range and will probably be booting field goals on Sundays next year.

Georgia (6-1 SU, 2-5 ATS) went into 2012 as the SEC East favorite based mainly on the fact that it had an easier schedule compared to its division rivals. This is the second straight season that Alabama, LSU and Arkansas have been absent from the Dawgs’ slate.

Even though it has won six of seven games, Mark Richt’s squad has not picked up any style points along the way. Last week may have been the best example.

Kentucky was without its two best QBs, two best RBs and nearly its entire secondary when UGA came to Lexington. But the Wildcats were in the game for 60 minutes before coming up on the short end of a 29-24 decision. UK took the cash as a 25 ½-point underdog.

Most of the criticism in Athens has come toward a stop unit that’s stacked with NFL talents like Jarvis Jones, Alec Ogletree, Bacarri Rambo and Shawn Williams. However, the defense has struggled mightily against the run, giving up 167.9 yards per game.

Rambo and Ogletree’s four-game suspensions didn’t help, nor did two-game suspensions for another pair of starters in cornerback Sanders Commings and LB Chase Vasser. Jones didn’t play last week at UK due to a sprained ankle, but he’s set to return to the lineup in Jacksonville.

Aaron Murray is a solid signal caller for UGA, but he’s had a propensity for not playing his best in the biggest games. For instance, he was awful in a 35-7 loss at South Carolina earlier this month, and the junior kept Tennessee in the game in a non-covering 51-44 home win by gift-wrapping the Vols with a pair of first-half TDs (one pick-six and a fumble on UGA’s nine).

I don’t mean to portray a picture of all gloom and doom for UGA, though. After all, a win over Florida will put the Bulldogs in control of their own destiny in terms of winning the East and returning to the Ga. Dome for the SEC Championship Game. Furthermore, none of Georgia’s goals are off the table as it could conceivably still win the national title.

With that said, there’s no hiding this team from the ‘underachiever label’ to date.

One positive for the Dawgs has been the emergence of a pair of freshman RBs in Keith Marshall and Todd Gurley, who have combined to rush for 1,110 yards and 14 TDs. Gurley has nine rushing scores and is averaging 6.7 YPC. Marshall has five TD runs and a 7.0 YPC average.

Murray has completed 65.2 percent of his passes for 1,906 yards with a 16/4 TD-INT ratio. One of his favorite targets, WR Michael Bennett, suffered a torn ACL in early October and is done for the season. Taverres King has a team-high 26 receptions for 511 yards and five TDs.

When these teams met last year, UGA captured a 24-20 win as a 3 ½-point favorite. Murray threw a pair of TD passes on fourth-down plays.

The ‘over’ is hitting at a 5-2 overall clip for UGA, while the ‘under’ has gone 4-3 overall for UF. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in the last five UF-UGA games.

CBS will provide television coverage at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Auburn owns a 5-1 spread record in six games as a home underdog during Gene Chizik’s four-year tenure. The Tigers, who are 15-point home ‘dogs Saturday vs. Texas A&M, have won three of those games outright.

--Vanderbilt is favored by 33 Saturday at home vs. Massachusetts. Many sharp bettors like to fade (go against) teams when they are in unfamiliar roles. Obviously, we don’t see the Commodores as extremely healthy favorites very often. However, we should note that in three double-digit ‘chalk’ spots on James Franklin’s watch, Vandy has gone 3-0 ATS.

--Florida has won 18 of the last 22 head-to-head meetings against Georgia dating back to 1990. The Gators are 3-1 ATS in the last four encounters. For what it’s worth (nothing?), UF head coach Will Muschamp is winless in five Florida-Georgia games. He was winless as a player at UGA in four tries and his first UF squad lost a 24-20 decision in Jacksonville last year.

--Northwestern is a six-point home favorite vs. Iowa. Although the Wildcats are 2-0 ATS as home favorites this season, they are 6-13 ATS in 19 games as home ‘chalk’ during Pat Fitzgerald’s seven-year tenure.

--Duke has never beaten Florida St, going 0-17 with an average score of 50-16. No game has been closer than 19 points. The Seminoles are favored by 27 ½ at home against the Blue Devils.

--ULM owns a 6-1 spread record after rallying for a 43-42 overtime win last week at Western Kentucky. For the second time this season, the Warhawks rallied from a 28-7 deficit to win a road game in overtime. They take on South Alabama this weekend as 23-point home favorites.

--Notre Dame is 3-1 ATS as a road underdog during Brian Kelly’s three-year stay at the helm. The unbeaten Irish is an 11-point underdog at Oklahoma.

--Virginia still hasn’t covered the spread all season, going 0-7-1 ATS. Unfortunately, gamblers can’t fade the Cavs this weekend because they have an open date.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-27-12 06:44 AM
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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Saturday's games
Top games
Northwestern won five of last seven games with Iowa, with underdogs winning sox of the seven SU; Hawkeyes lost four of last six visits here, but none of the losses was by more than 4 points (dogs 5-1 vs spread in games played here). Wildcats were outscored in second half of last four games, outscored 29-14/19-14 in second half of their two losses; they’re 3-0-1 as favorites this year, improving them to 6-13 as home favorites under Fitzgerald. Iowa is just 3-3 vs I-A opponents, scoring 19 or less points in three of last five games, despite a +6 turnover ratio; they won only true road game in OT at Michigan State, are 8-6 as road underdogs since 2007.

Spreads on Alabama games are getting inflated because they’ve been so good this year, with no win by less than 19 points. Mississippi State is 7-0 and still getting 24 points here; they’ve lost nine of last 11 and four in row vs Bama by average score of 29-7- they lost 30-10/32-7 in last two visits here. State’s 7-0 record came vs three Sun Belt teams, I-AA Jackson State and three SEC teams with losing records, so they’re stepping way up in class here. Crimson Tide just went on road for two games and crushed Missouri 42-10, Tennessee 44-13; one caveat here is that their biggest game, the LSU game, is next Saturday in Baton Rouge. Five of six Bulldog games stayed under the total.

Wisconsin has turned their season around, winning last three games (after sluggish 3-2 start) by 17-24-25 points, while running ball for average of 305.7 yards/game, which is what they’ve done in past; home teams won their last six games with Michigan State, with underdogs covering six of last seven. Spartans lost last three visits here, by 8-3-35 points. MSU lost three of last four games, with all three losses by 3 or less points, scoring 16 or less points in all three games- under is 6-1-1 in their games this season, but four of last five Wisconsin games went over. Wisconsin is 10-3 in last 13 tries as a home favorite. Badgers beat State 42-39 in Big Dozen title game last December.

7-0 Florida covered its last six games, outscoring four best teams they’ve played 74-11 in second half; they’ve been underdog in three of their seven games. Gators have been so dominant they’ve abandoned the pass, throwing for 61-77-94 yards in last three games, but they might need it here vs 6-1 Georgia team that scored 29+ points in every game but its 35-7 loss at South Carolina. Dawgs failed to cover their last four games as a dog. Georgia beat Florida 24-20 LY, just their 4th win in last 22 games in this old-time rivalry; last two meetings were decided by total of 7 points. Dogs are 6-4 vs spread in last 10 series games, with Florida 5-3-1 vs spread last nine times they were a series favorite.

Home team covered all seven of North Carolina’s lined games this year, with UNC 3-0 as home favorite, winning those games by average score of 47-13. NC State is 2-2 on road, winning close games at UConn/Maryland, losing on last play at Miami- they beat Carolina the last five years, despite being underdog in last four meetings; Wolfpack won last two visits here, 41-10/29-25. Tar Heels got upset at Duke last week; they’re 0-3 this year when they have negative turnover ratio. 5-2 State won its last two games by combined total of 3 points; they’re 2-4 in last six games as road underdog, after covering 12 of first 18 such games under O’Brien. Four of last five Wolfpack games stayed under the total.

Favorites covered all six of Arizona State’s lined games this season; Sun Devils are 4-0 as favorites, 2-0 at home, but they got smoked at home (down 43-7 at half) by Oregon last week, as Ducks had 406 yards rushing. Home side won last four UCLA-ASU games, with Bruins losing 55-34/34-9 in last two visits here; UCLA had last week off- they’ve won two of three road games, but were favored in all three. Bruins covered only game as an underdog- they were 6-16 as road underdogs under Neuheisel, their last coach. Since 2007, ASU is now 16-11 vs spread as a home favorite. Four of last five games for both sides stayed under the total. UCLA had last week off; ASU played last Thursday.

8-0 Ohio State needed OT to survive Purdue last week, and hung on to beat Indiana 52-49 the week before, so they’re vulnerable, even moreso if QB Miller can’t go here (he’s expected to play); Buckeyes won three of its last four visits to Penn State- underdogs covered four of last five series games played here. Penn State won/covered last five games after an 0-2 start, allowing an average of 13.8 ppg; Northwestern was only one of those five opponents to score more than 14 points. Lions are 3-1 as home favorites under O’Brien, after covering only four of previous 17 tries- they’ve thrown ball for 282+ yards in three of last four games. OSU won its two road games (Mich State/Indiana) by combined total of 4 points.

6-0 Oregon State won seven of its last eight games with Washington, losing 35-34 in last visit here; they’ve won four of last five visits to Seattle, and covered last five times they were favored to beat Huskies. Beavers’ last three wins are all by 13+ points despite playing backup QB Vaz. OSU already has road wins at UCLA/Arizona/BYU- they’ve been underdog in four of six lined games. Since 2004, OSU is 9-5 as a road favorite. Washington got waxed 52-17 last week at Arizona, its third loss in row (average score, 43-17); home team covered Huskies’ last five games. Washington is 2-0 as home dog this year- they’re 6-4 overall as home dogs under Sarkisian. Four of six OSU games stayed under the total.

7-0 Kansas State comes home off smashing 55-14 at West Virginia LW (TY 479-243, was 31-7 at half); Wildcats (+3) upset Texas Tech 41-34 in Lubbock LY, after having lost 66-14/58-28 in previous two series games; total yardage in game LY was 580-241 Tech, but K-State was +4 in turnovers and got the win. K-State is 2-1 as home favorite this year, 8-5 in last 13 tries under Snyder, who is legit miracle worker for job he’s done in Little Apple. Wildcats are +13 in turnovers this season, with only 4 giveaways. 6-1 Tech hammered Tech two weeks ago, they pulled out OT win at TCU last week, so this is third tough game in row for them; teams been having trouble in that role this season.

TCU’s first year in Big X has been hampered by its star QB getting a DIU and suspended for season, but they scored 53 points last week in OT loss to Texas Tech; Horned Frogs are 4-0 as road underdogs since ’09, winning 49-21 SU at Baylor (+7) in only game as road dog this season. 5-2 TCU is -7 in turnovers in its two losses, +10 in its wins- they have road wins at Kansas (20-6, -21), SMU (24-16, -15 in downpour). Oklahoma State gave up 59-41 points in its two losses; they allowed 23-14-10 in three wins vs I-A teams, are trying to run ball more to protect banged up young QB’s; their starting QB this year is nine years younger than LY’s starter (Weeden), now a 28-year old rookie in NFL.

Arkansas hammered Auburn (24-7, +8), Kentucky (49-7, -18) last two weeks after 1-4 start; curious to see if they’ve snapped their funk by beating Ole Miss team they beat 29-24/38-24 last two years. Favorites are 7-3 vs spread in last ten series games; Rebels lost four of last five visits here, with all four losses by 14+ points. New Ole Miss coach Freeze has Rebels at surprisingly good 4-3, with tough loss to A&M; Rebels are 10-4 vs spread in last 14 games as road underdog. Hogs were 13-4-1 as home favorite from ’09-’11, but are 1-2 this year, giving up average of 40.3 ppg in their three home losses (2-3 SU). Three of last four Arkansas games went over total; three of last four Rebel games stayed under.

Look at their schedule; if Notre Dame wins this game, only real threat between them and unbeaten regular season would be at USC Nov 24; Irish play great defense, allowing 11 ppg in 7-0 start, but other than Miami, none of those seven opponents have dynamic passing games. ND covered five of last six tries as road underdog, winning 20-3 (+6) SU at Michigan State in their only true road game this season. Oklahoma scored 41-63-52 points in winning three league games since getting upset 24-19 (-16) at home by Kansas State; Sooners had only one takeaway (-4) in first three games, have nine (+6) in last three. Since ’06, Oklahoma is 24-12-1 vs spread as a home favorite.

Michigan (-3) beat Nebraska 45-17 LY, outgaining Cornhuskers 418-260, 238-135 on ground, in first meeting as conference rivals (Nebraska won ’05 bowl game, 32-28). Since 2007, Wolverines are 4-9 vs spread as road underdogs; they’re 0-2 this year, losing 41-14 (+12) to Alabama in Dallas, then 13-6 (+6) at Notre Dame- they completed only 31 of 61 passes in last three games. Nebraska is 4-0 (2-1 as home favorite) in Lincoln, but over last six games, Huskers are -10 in turnovers, coughing ball up 18 times- they escaped Northwestern last week with 29-28 win after late rally, passing for an un-Huskerlike 342 yards. Nebraska is 13-17 vs spread as a home favorite under Pelini.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

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