StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping

The FoxDen Forum : Powered by vBulletin version 2.3.0 The FoxDen Forum > Sports Handicapping, Trends, and Stats > Cnotes College Basketball Best Bets Thru March Madess !
Search The Fox Den Forum:

Subscribe to this Thread
Pages (18): « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 [11] 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 »

Last Message   Next Message
    
Author
Message    Post A Reply
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

Cinderella Schools

March 20, 2013


It's almost cliché, digging through your couch cushions for enough to make it worthwhile to wire your cousin in Las Vegas that longshot-backer. Shame, shame.

Since you're going to do it anyway, may as well do it right. This is a season where parity has reigned and where someone can indeed defy huge odds by winning their last six games. Here are the teams most likely to yield a nice vacation, limited only to those paying off better than 50/1 (Bet $100 to win $5,000).

The Midwest Region is among the toughest I've ever seen, compounded by seeding mistakes that punished Missouri (75/1) and Oregon (100/1) for key injuries they've now overcome. As a result, you've got two teams capable of making a run that would square off in the Sweet 16 if they survive the opening weekend.

Ninth-seeded Missouri plays a unique pressing style that is going to pose problems for Louisville on short rest. A win over the tournament favorite (9/2) would be a tremendous confidence boost for a team that really didn't take off the way many hoped given all the talent on board. Talented guard Jabari Brown has been inconsistent for the past two months, but he's capable of being a huge X-factor. Due to all the transfers on board, Mizzou is an older team, even able to rely on 22-year-old Alex Oriakhi's championship experience with UConn from 2011.

Oregon, which knows Brown well since he was their top recruit last season, overcame his departure through an infusion of talent in Rice transfer Arsalan Kazemi and freshmen Dominic Artis and Damyean Dotson. When those guys are all in the mix, the Ducks are 21-4 and they’re fresh off a Pac-12 championship.

On the opposite side of the Midwest bracket, Creighton (100/1) looks most appealing. Although they would potentially have to get through physical Duke and Michigan State, the Blue Jays have Greg McDermott to lean on. No one has had an answer for the All-American, who gets plenty of help from burly center Gregory Echenique and a batch of solid guards.

The other three divisions aren't as loaded, so while the teams aren't necessarily as formidable, the draw will be considerably lighter.

In the South, VCU (50/1) is loaded with veteran talent and a pressing style accurately termed "Havoc" that will test everyone in its path. The Rams have already walked this road before. Head coach Shaka Smart has long surpassed novelty status and is in position to make his seemingly far-fetched belief that Richmond's Virginia Commonwealth University can become a national program come to fruition. Another long run looks likely, since there isn't anyone in the region they can't defeat.

The same can be said about San Diego State (300/1) if they find a way to get consistent offense. Head coach Steve Fisher is a tournament winner who has a driving force in slashing guard Jamaal Franklin and a few shooters capable of sniping a number of upsets. Scoring has been an issue throughout the past few months, so there's a reason they're such a longshot, but they've got a puncher's chance.

In the East, the top candidates capable of shocking the world also consist of a newly minted Atlantic 10 school and a Mountain West power that has had bouts of inconsistency. Butler (100/1) and UNLV (100/1) are at opposite ends and may loom as the biggest threats to top teams Indiana and Miami, Fl.

Brad Stevens and his Bulldogs have already graduated from being talked about as a candidate for a sleeper to being legitimately considered a threat to break through in a third championship game in four seasons. Although Butler has lost a few key cogs, it has game-changing 3-point shooters as part of its equation in Arkansas transfer Rotnei Clarke and freshman Kellen Dunham, who have combined for 164 makes.

UNLV is led by a future lottery pick in freshman Anthony Bennett and has momentum after winning its league tournament and watching senior Mike Moser look closer to his former self. The Rebels have as much quality size as anyone in the region and has shooters Bryce Dejean-Jones and Katlin Reinhardt to bust zones, necessary given Syracuse's presence. If point guard Anthony Marshall is a factor at both ends, the Rebels have all the pieces to contend with the heavily favored Orange and Indiana.

Lastly, the West often winds up being the wildest, so if you're not sold on Gonzaga or Ohio State, know there are some wild options that would allow you to impress your friends while cashing in.

Seventh-seeded Notre Dame (100/1) is a pretty solid play given its veteran guard play, skilled shooters like Pat Connaughton who come in hot and a traditional center in Jack Cooley to space the floor. Still, there are zanier options that could very well become the talk of the country.

Wichita State's Shockers (300/1) advertise their potential on nickname alone. Forwards Carl Hall and Cleanthony Early are athletes needed to hang with the physical teams in their portion of the bracket. Guard Malcolm Armstead makes it a chore to run offense. Although Pittsburgh and Gonzaga will both be rightfully favored during this opening week, Wichita won't be overmatched.

One final shot in the dark would be to ride 11th-seeded Belmont's pace, efficient offense and ability to bury teams behind a flurry of 3-pointers. At 1,000/1, the capable Bruins are worth a buck or to for a shot at the greatest Cinderella story ever told. Unlikely, sure, but they are in the most offensively challenged region of the four. Dare to dream if they get by Arizona.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 03-20-13 10:53 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

South Region Outlook

March 20, 2013

With the brackets set, here is a quick look at the South region and some of the games and teams to pay attention to. Kansas, Georgetown, Florida, and Michigan lead a bracket filled with powerhouse programs with a lot of great tradition. Take a look at the South region in this snapshot.

Favorite: Florida – While Kansas and Georgetown were seeded higher in this region, Florida is the odds-on favorite in this region at 7/5 to advance to the Final Four. Only Louisville and Indiana are liked better by the oddsmakers to win the national championship despite the Gators being a #3 seed. Florida opened the season looking like the best team in the nation opening up 7-0 with blowout wins over Wisconsin, Middle Tennessee State, Marquette, and Florida State but things have not gone as well lately. The Gators did also lead Georgetown in the aircraft carrier game to open the season before it was cancelled for an interesting side story should those teams meet in this bracket. Florida has certainly shown some vulnerability in recent weeks, losing four of the past nine games including two losses to teams that did not make the NCAA Tournament field. Another concern is the inability to win close games for the Gators despite a well-balanced veteran team. Most Florida wins came by huge margins with 10 points being the smallest margin of victory all season. Six of the seven Florida losses came by six points or less and in the NCAA Tournament there will likely be some close games where the Gators will need to make plays down the stretch to get or hold a lead. Florida has dominant statistics and has the best efficiency ratings in the nation due to the many lopsided wins, but this is a team that will need to prove itself in crunch time now that the games really matter.

Final Four Sleeper: VCU – Virginia Commonwealth made an amazing Final Four run two years ago and this is a team that has the potential to make a run again. While this team is not as talented as the squad from two years ago, the aggressive turnover-forcing defensive philosophy can cause a lot of problems in a tournament setting. The bracket also lines up favorably as the Rams draw an Akron team that will be playing without its starting point guard in the first round and then will face a Michigan squad that is young and really struggles defensively at times. VCU is more efficient on offense than you might expect, but that is an impact of the easy baskets in transition and off turnovers as this is a pretty average shooting team and a marginal rebounding squad. The Rams will play close with anyone, as just about every loss came in a very close game including narrow misses against Wichita State, Duke, and Missouri early in the year. VCU went 0-2 against St. Louis this season in a very strong Atlantic 10 conference, but there are wins over five different NCAA Tournament teams on the resume. The NCAA Tournament track record is pretty impressive the last two years as last year this team followed up the Final Four run with a strong showing last year, beating Wichita State and then losing by just two against Indiana. VCU beat Kansas two years ago to get to the Final Four and they may get that chance again in the Sweet 16 of the South region.

Sweet 16 Sleeper: Oklahoma – Many can see VCU, San Diego State, or even Minnesota making a run in this region, but an Oklahoma squad that had a very respectable season is getting little attention. While the Mountain West rated as one of the best conferences in the nation this year, the track record of that league in the NCAA Tournament is incredibly poor and San Diego State may be the weakest of the five entrants. The Aztecs went 4-5 in the final nine games of the season yet still managed a #7 seed, but the price includes traveling to the east coast with as long of travel as any team in the tournament for the opening game. San Diego State went 5-8 against teams that made the NCAA Tournament and this team is getting too much respect for a dominant 55-34 win over New Mexico back in January that came in a very difficult spot for the Lobos. That leaves this team vulnerable to an Oklahoma a team with wins over Oklahoma State, Kansas, and Iowa State in Big XII play. Losing the last game of the regular season and the first conference tournament game should leave the Sooners motivated and with two overtime losses and four other losses by three or fewer points on the year, it very easily could have been an even stronger year for Oklahoma. Facing Georgetown in the Round of 32 will be a big challenge if Oklahoma gets by San Diego State, but Georgetown is one of those teams that can go into great slumps offensively and keep in mind the Hoyas have not won a second game in the NCAA Tournament since the Final Four run in 2007.

Best Opening Game: North Carolina vs. Villanova – UCLA and Minnesota could also be a highly competitive game, but this should be the most entertaining. North Carolina has been forced to play small down the stretch, but it has been a formula that has worked as the Tar Heels played excellent late season ball and gave Miami a great run in an offensive showdown in the ACC Championship game. North Carolina won 11 of the last 15 games of the season and all four losses came against teams that are #2 seeds in the NCAA Tournament, so this is a team with some great momentum and talent that is finally starting to reach its potential. Villanova will clash in style with the Tar Heels as this Wildcats team has had success in slower half-court games. While the Wildcats are not the most consistent offensive team in the bracket, they are one of the most efficient defensive teams in this region and this team picked up several big wins down the stretch to play into the field after a rough start to the season. Villanova played one of the nation’s toughest schedules and has wins over Louisville, Syracuse, Marquette, and Georgetown this season and this could be a great match-up between traditional powers. The winner will certainly be a tough draw for top seeded Kansas in a four-team pod that features a lot of history.

Trendy Upset that won’t be: South Dakota State over Michigan – Michigan is young and the Wolverines have struggled down the stretch with a 6-6 record in the final 12 games of the season after being the #1 team in the nation at one point. South Dakota State is an offensive juggernaut that scores nearly 74 points per game and has one of the top shooting percentages in the field. Michigan is one of the worst defensive teams in the Big Ten, but South Dakota State is perhaps the worst defensive team in the entire 68-team bracket. The Jackrabbits won the Summit League title, but the conference fared very poorly in the Bracket Buster and this team only has two wins over teams that made the NCAA Tournament. One of the wins was a true gem, winning at New Mexico with a very cold shooting performance for the Lobos in a game that meant far more to the underdog. Michigan won’t be caught off guard by this match-up and star guard Nate Wolters will be forced into difficult shots throughout this game. Against Minnesota earlier this season, South Dakota State lost by 22, so matching up with a superior Big Ten team could be problematic. This has the feel of a match-up where the underdog might have a hot start and make some waves early, but eventually the stronger team will prevail and stopping Michigan’s offense that ranks second in the nation in efficiency will be a big problem for the Jackrabbits.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 03-20-13 10:56 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

East Region Outlook

March 20, 2013

With the brackets set, here is a quick look at the East region and some of the games and teams to pay attention to. Indiana leads this bracket and is one of the favorites to win the whole tournament, but there are other contenders lurking and several popular first round upset calls waiting in this region. Take a look at the East region in this snapshot.

Favorite: Indiana - The Hoosiers are the favorites to win the East region and only sit behind Louisville as the favorite to win the national championship. Indiana only lost six games all season, but three of those losses have come in the last six games. This team has the experience and talent to go all the way, but there have been signs of trouble down the stretch. Tom Crean has also had some notable blunders that could cost his team at some point. The bracket sets up relatively well for Indiana, although the second round game with either N.C. State or Temple will be a challenge. Miami and Marquette appear to be among the less feared #2 and #3 seeds in the tournament, but two teams that beat Indiana, Butler and Illinois, are also in this region. Indiana will play the first two games in Dayton, a still favorable venue for the Hoosiers despite falling off the #1 overall seeding that many expected the Hoosiers to claim. Being in Washington D.C. for the Sweet 16 and the Elite 8 won't provide a great advantage to any of the teams in this region. This is certainly Indiana's bracket to lose and it this might be one of the weaker regions in the tournament.

Final Four Sleeper: Marquette - While the Golden Eagles are a #3 seed, the co-champions in the Big East are not getting great respect and are even a popular go-against team in Round 1. Should Marquette get by Davidson, they could get a revenge opportunity against Butler after losing on a last-second shot earlier this season against the Bulldogs. Marquette has had several big name players in recent years that have moved on to the NBA, but this might be the most complete team in the Buzz Williams era, though perhaps lacking a star. Marquette only had one bad loss this season, as every other team to beat the Golden Eagles is in the tournament field and the two-point loss to UW-Green Bay came in a tough situation with travel through a heavy snowstorm. Florida and Louisville are the only teams that soundly beat Marquette this season and most losses were in tight games and Marquette proved itself with 14 wins through a very tough Big East schedule. Miami could potentially be a very tough Sweet 16 opponent for the Golden Eagles, but the Hurricanes are unproven on this stage and it may simply have been a down year for the ACC as many metrics suggest.

Sweet 16 Sleeper: California - The Golden Bears played a tough non-conference schedule and had a bit of a disappointing start to the season, but this team rallied to win seven of the last eight games of the conference season. Cal picked up wins over the other four NCAA Tournament teams in the Pac-12 in that stretch and this team should be hungry after losing in upset fashion in the Pac-12 tournament. Cal lost in the First Four last season, so this team should be focused for a better showing this year and they draw a rematch of a one-point loss at home against UNLV earlier this season. That was certainly a much bigger game on the UNLV schedule as Cal has just come off a trip to Madison and an ugly loss to Wisconsin and then had a more prominent game with Creighton up next. That was the first big test of the season for UNLV and the Rebels barely won despite strong shooting and a big rebounding edge. This game will be in San Jose which is a big location advantage for the Bears and could be a big help in a potential Round of 32 matchup with Syracuse. Cal has the talent to make a run led by NBA prospect Allen Crabbe, who has been dominant at times this season and could carry the team.

Best Opening Game: Butler vs. Bucknell - Butler has earned respect in the NCAA Tournament after two recent Final Four runs, but this year's team stumbled down the stretch and could not compete with St. Louis, the top team in the Atlantic 10 that beat Butler three times. Several wins over marginal teams came down to the wire for the Bulldogs and while this team has a history of big wins in the NCAA Tournament, many of those games also came by slim margins. Bucknell is not a deep team, but the Bison have the ability to deliver a minor upset in this matchup. Bucknell has notable wins over Purdue, George Mason, Niagara, New Mexico State, Kent State, and LaSalle this season as they played a tough non-conference schedule. Bucknell also nearly beat Missouri with a two-point road loss in January. Last year's Patriot League champion Lehigh beat Duke in the first round, so this conference deserves respect. In the NIT last season, Bucknell beat Arizona in Tucson and while this will be a favorable venue for Butler, this could be a great first round match-up that could go either way.

Trendy Upset that won't be: Davidson over Marquette - Davidson was a great story a few years ago with an Elite 8 run, but that team had now NBA star Steph Curry leading the way. The Wildcats don't have a player of that caliber this year and the 17-1 record in the Southern Conference can not be viewed as being overly meaningful as it was not a strong year for the conference, featuring only three of twelve teams closing with a winning record. Davidson has won 17 straight games, but only an overtime home win over Montana brings any semblance of credibility. Early season wins over Vanderbilt and West Virginia looked impressive at the time, but neither of those teams had a strong season. Credit Davidson for playing a strong non-conference schedule, but they lost soundly in games with Gonzaga and Duke and also lost to UW-Milwaukee and Drexel. Davidson's best two players mainly score inside the post and the opportunities will not be the same going against Marquette compared with many of the Southern Conference opponents. Marquette is not a flashy team, but this has been a disciplined group that plays team basketball in a bit of a departure from past Golden Eagles squads. Marquette battled through an extremely tough schedule and won a share of the Big East title along with Louisville and Georgetown in a conference that put eight teams into the NCAA Tournament. Both of these teams have strong offensive numbers, but Marquette has been the superior team through a far more rigorous schedule. Marquette has been in the Sweet 16 the last two years and this is a team that has the ability to make another solid postseason run.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 03-20-13 10:58 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

Big Dance Breakdown

March 20, 2013

By Selection Sunday standards, this season's rendition was a bit tame. No real surprises in the mix; few complaints from the masses. For the most part (with a possible exception or two that we'll note in a moment), the Committee seems to have gotten the 68-team field right for once.

Still, the perception that the process is anything other than a subjective act continues to be forwarded by the Selection Committee, when nothing could be further from the truth. Among the TV talking heads on Sunday, only ESPN's Jay Bilas was inclined to question the Committee's process because of what appeared to be some inconsistencies both in seeding and in eventual criteria for separating teams at the cut line.

For us, we conceded long ago that the Big Ten was going to be given a wide berth by the Committee, though upon closer inspection we wonder why. Moreover, it was as if the Committee simply borrowed the talking points from sorts such as Andy Katz and Joe Lunardi about the SEC being in such a down cycle this season. Regarding the latter, however, we detected some inconsistencies with the Committee and, for that matter, the majority of media talking heads who have similarly downgraded the SEC this season.

We have long believed that the selection process, while tedious, is also mostly overblown by the media and the Committee itself, which guards the secrets of its 10-man enclave in Indianapolis as if it is dealing with national security. There are a handful of former national defense secretaries like Bob Gates and Leon Panetta who are looking for things to do these days; perhaps they should be included into next year's Big Dance Selection Committee mix to maintain that cloud of secrecy.

For us, we have to wonder about the sharpness of the Committee when it violated one of its supposed tenets and slotted regular-season rematches (supposedly a no-no) at the top of a sub-regional round. The reaction of the CBS crew (Doug Gottlieb in particular) confirmed that oversight when UNLV and Cal were unveiled as a Thursday matchup in San Jose. The Runnin' Rebels and Golden Bears played a regular-season game back on December 9 at Berkeley, and their rematch was one of the questions addressed to Committee Chairman Mike Bobinski, who fumbled around for a proper answer.

Apparently, according to Bobinski, the Committee had boxed itself in and had no alternative but to put UNLV and Cal against one another. Which we find curious, as with a simple paper, pencil, and notes, we have been able to seed a projected NCAA field for the last two months while avoiding rematches at the top of sub-regional action. All it takes is a pencil with an eraser to move some of the teams around to prevent what is supposedly a Big Dance no-no.

The wide space granted to the Big Ten might also be a bit misplaced. Especially when referring to Minnesota, whose 5-11 record over its last 16 games was never mentioned once by one of the talking heads that instead seemed to be comparing the Gophers to Bill Russell's old USF title teams when discussing what a fundamental mismatch it would be for UCLA when facing the "mighty" Golden Gophers in the first round.

Upon further inspection of information from the first half of the season, we acknowledge some of the Big Ten's impressive performances, but it's not an airtight case for Big Ten superiority. Wisconsin, after all, lost almost every challenging non-league game (vs. Florida, Creighton, Virginia, and Marquette...three of those losses by double-digit margins) it played. Ohio State's non-conference victims list is dotted with Rhode Island, Savannah State, Northern Kentucky, and Winthrop; the Buckeyes lost when stepping up to face Duke and Kansas. No shame there, but similar criteria when used to evaluate teams from other leagues was apparently overlooked.

Indiana had two significant non-conference games; it beat Georgeotwn in OT in Brooklyn before the Hoyas hit stride, and lost vs. Butler. The win over North Carolina came long before the Tar Heels hit stride later in the season. Michigan State beat Kansas and several lesser entities but lost vs. UConn and Miami-Florida. While Gonzaga was disparaged by several talking heads for its loss to Illinois and a so-so non-league slate (which was not true, as the Zags went 5-0 vs. the Big 12), Michigan got lots of credit for its win over Kansas State and a pair of other successes vs. Pitt and N.C. State teams that were no better than the eighth-line teams in Dance seeding. Iowa beat Iowa State, but was whipped by Wichita State and Virginia Tech. Illinois won at Maui and dealt Gonzaga one of its two regular-season defeats, but was also routed in St. Louis by SEC rep Missouri.

Speaking of the SEC, we have to wonder why the Committee and the talking heads seemed to absolve Florida of its association with the league and rewarded the Gators a three-seed in the Dance while downgrading the rest of the loop. Florida lost every game it played that was decided by single digits and dropped five SEC games played away from Gainesville, including the conference tourney finale in Nashville vs. Ole Miss. If the SEC was so terrible, why did the Gators keep losing league games, as did supposedly highly-regarded Missouri, which lost seven of nine road games in the league as well as a pre-conference date at UCLA? But, for some reason, the Committee made exceptions for Florida and, to a lesser extent Missouri, as did the talking heads by refusing to clump those two with the rest of the loop.

There were also inconsistencies (as ESPN's Bilas noted) about the inclusion of Middle Tennessee as one of the last at-large teams (or, apparently, the last at-large, as Committee Chair Bobinski seemed to indicate) at the expense of a Tennessee, which was hot down the stretch. Bobinski again stumbled for answers other than noting that MTSU had beaten the same Ole Miss team that had toppled the Vols twice. The Blue Raiders, however, lost other challenging non-league assignments vs. Florida, Akron, and Belmont.

We're on record as having no problem with mid-majors like the Sun Belt catching an occasional break from the Selection Committee. And Tennessee could have probably moved to the safe side of the cut line had it beaten Alabama in the quarters of the SEC tourney last week in Nashville. Still, we might have picked the Vols over MTSU.

Elsewhere, there were questions related to seeding, especially the apparent downgrading of the Pac-12, where Oregon and Cal both received lower-than-expected 12 seeds (although Bobinski noted that each was originally an 11 seed, and was moved down a line in the procedural "bump" the Committee reserves in order to balance the field). Still, we believe this is really much ado about nothing, as 12 seeds usually have a better deal than eight or nine-seeds that are almost assuredly going to have to face regional number one seeds in the round of 32, as opposed to a more-beatable 4 or 5 seed. Although a downgraded seeding can dent the psyche of a team, in fact it often acts as a blessing in disguise. The fact that a 12 seed has advanced to the Sweet 16 in all but three years since the modern seeding of the tourney began in 1985 (a much better percentage than eight of nine seeds) is a confirmation that sometimes it can be better to be a bit downgraded at the outset.

We also wonder about all of the discussion regarding the top regional seeds, which seems like a manufactured storyline to us. Practically speaking, there is effectively no difference between a one and a two seed, except that a handful of 2's have been knocked off by 15 seeds in the last three decades. Whether Gonzaga is a one or two seed is going to have little impact on the proceedings save for being a nice feather in the Zags' hat.

The bottom line? The Selection Committee is comprised of humans, and they make the decisions, not the machines. We just wish that more members would confirm the selection process as a subjective exercise. And we'd also suggest a sequester of the Committee members from exposure to the TV talking heads who so seem to influence their thought process.

ANY GEORGE MASONS OR BUTLERS IN THE HOUSE?

The unexpected runs of mid-majors such as George Mason and Butler (and Virginia Commonwealth in 2011) to the Final Four in recent years have prompted us to offer a "mid-major alert" each of the past few seasons, highlighting teams to watch that could emerge and deliver a similar run in the Dance. Following are a handful of those sides that we would watch closely...

Davidson (SUR 26-7; seeded 14th in East)...Among all of the mid-major entries, we suspect the Wildcats might be the most complete and dangerous team. All starters returned from last year's side that made it to the Dance and gave Louisville a fight in the sub-regionals. Well-balanced, with six players who led the team in scoring in at least one game this season. A unique weapon in Ryan Kelly-like, Euro-style 6-10 F Jake Cohen (14.8 ppg), and a matchup nightmare in 6-7 swingman De'Mon Brooks (13.8 ppg), who can post-up smaller defenders. Team FT shooting (80.1%) is the best in the nation; G Nik Cochran (94.1%) tops all. Underrated, vet HC Bob McKillop has taken several teams to the Dance that did not include Stephen Curry. Pushed New Mexico to the limit in a challenging non-conference slate that also included Gonzaga and Duke. Junior-senior dominated roster that returned eight of nine top contributors from last season...the sort of team makeup that suggests it can at least be a dangerous underdog.

Belmont (SUR 26-6; seeded 11th in West)...No longer a well-kept secret, vet HC Rick Byrd's Bruins make a return visit return to the Dance after moving from the Atlantic Sun to the Ohio Valley. Electric backcourt featuring senior G's Ian Clark (18.3 ppg & 54.3% FGs) and Kerron Johnson (13.5 ppg). But balanced beyond the backcourt, with four starters scoring in double figures. Whipped South Dakota State at Nashville in December; other notable wins over Stanford and Ohio. Not big (no starter taller than 6'7) and probably a bit too perimeter-oriented to make a Mason, Butler, or VCU-type run, but Byrd is due for a win in the Dance after losing in five previous tries. Arizona is forewarned for the Thursday game in Salt Lake City.

South Dakota State (SUR 25-9; seeded 13th in South)...Back for another try after competitive loss vs. Baylor in the sub-regionals last year. Four starters returned from that tourney team, led by hot-shooting G Nate Wolters (22.7 ppg), who exploded for 53 points in a Feb. 7 win at IPFW. Wolters is more than a shooter, also a drive-and-kick penetrator who can count upon a squadron of dagger-throwing teammates including F Jordan Dykstra and G Chad White, both 43% beyond the arc. Efficient on the attack end by limiting TO's, this is still a perimeter-oriented squad that has some defensive liabilities. But could be a very tricky matchup nonetheless, especially vs. a team that is lax in defending the arc. Famously won at The Pit vs. New Mexico in December after an arduous 1200-mile bus ride from Nashville (after the Jackrabbits lost to Belmont) necessitated by weather conditions that grounded air travel. Rumor has it the team made at least one Waffle House stop en route to Albuquerque.

Bucknell (SUR 28-5; seeded 11th in East)...The alma mater of CBS head honcho Les Moonves, the Bison could be the latest in a string of Patriot League reps that have made some noise in recent Dances, including a year ago when Lehigh famously dumped Duke in the sub-regional. The Bison returned four starters from last year's NIT team, including 6-11 sr. C Mike Muscala, one of the best-kept secrets in the country after scoring 19.1 ppg and hauling in 11 rpg this season. Which means that foes are going to have to vigorously defend the post vs. Bucknell. The "outside" part of the inside-outside balance is courtesy of capable Gs 6-5 jr. Cameron Ayers (12.7 ppg) and sr. Bryson Johnson (11.5 ppg), both proficient shooting 3s. Notable wins this season include Purdue, La Salle, and New Mexico State.

Northwestern State (SUR 23-8, seeded 14th in South)...KO'd favored Stephen F. Austin in the Southland Tourney finale, although that was the Demons' second win in three tries vs. the Lumberjacks. Led the nation in scoring offense for much of the season thanks a relentless lineup that goes 10-deep; top scorer F DeQuan Hicks (14.2 ppg) usually comes off the bench. Defense a bit suspect, as we noted in its BracketBuster loss at Niagara, but NW can prove an awkward matchup due to its go-go style for HC Mike McConathy. Beat La Tech in early December and was a close loser at Oklahoma and LSU.

Montana (SUR 25-6, seeded 13th in East)...The Grizzlies were functioning minus top scorer F Mathias Ward (14.8 ppg; foot injury) for the last month of the season, this after high-scoring G Will Cherry (14.5 ppg) missed the first month of the campaign with his own broken foot. Cherry also missed some late-season action with another foot injury, but was back in the lineup for the Big Sky Tourney and win in the finale vs. dangerous Weber State. With Cherry and Ward absent for long stretches this season, F Kareem Jamar (14.2 ppg) stepped into the breach and was named Big Sky MVP. Lost four games early with Cherry out of starting lineup due to injury, but sent a warning shot in the BracketBuster at Davidson, pushing the Wildcats into OT despite being minus Ward and with Cherry re-injuring his foot in the 2nd half. Repeat Big Dance qualifier after losing to Wisconsin in sub-regional action last season.

Let's hope we're still talking about one or more of these teams next week for the Sweet 16; the tourney is always a bit more memorable when at last one Cinderella side emerges!




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 03-20-13 11:03 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

Wednesday's First Four

March 19, 2013

The First Four concludes on Wednesday night in Dayton, Ohio as a pair of 16's and a pair of 13's look to advance to Friday's action. We'll also take a quick glance at some of the intriguing games in the NIT, but things tip off between two 16 seeds trying to get a date with Indiana in the second round.

LIU-Brooklyn vs. James Madison - 6:40 PM EST (TruTV)

These two teams aren't household names by any stretch, but both squads finished the season with 20 wins apiece. LIU-Brooklyn won the Northeast Conference championship by ousting Mount St. Mary's, 91-70 as 3 ½-point favorites, the fifth consecutive victory for the Blackbirds. There isn't much to go off of from a pointspread angle on LIU, who played just four lined games this season, but the Blackbirds covered all four times.

James Madison put together one of the top ATS records in the country this season with a 21-10 mark, while covering in eight of its final nine games. The Dukes captured all three games of the Colonial tournament, including a 70-57 triumph over regular-season conference champion Northeastern as two-point underdogs. JMU leading scorer and rebounder Rayshawn Goins (12.9 ppg) is expected to sit out the first half on Wednesday night after getting arrested for disorderly conduct over the weekend.

The Dukes become the first Colonial team to participate in the Play-In game of the tournament, while the Blackbirds are the third-ever squad from the Northeast Conference to play in Dayton. Monmouth (2006) and Mount St. Mary's (2009) each advanced past the Play-In contest with victories, as LIU is participating in the NCAA Tournament for the third straight season (losses to North Carolina in '11 and Michigan State in '12).

Boise State vs. LaSalle - 9:10 PM EST (TruTV)

Advertisement
The Broncos were a part of the best conference RPI-wise this season as one of five teams to qualify for the NCAA Tournament. Granted, Boise State still has to win on Wednesday night to be part of the 64-team field, but the Broncos compiled a 21-10 SU and 16-11 ATS record this season. LaSalle put together a solid start in Atlantic-10 play, while the Explorers split their final six games of the season for a 21-9 SU and 12-12-1 ATS ledger.

The Explorers closed the season with consecutive losses to St. Louis and Butler (both tournament teams), but LaSalle won seven of eight games prior to those defeats. In those seven victories, LaSalle failed to beat a team that qualified for the NCAA Tournament, while the Explorers compiled a dreadful 1-6 ATS record in the underdog role. In non-conference play earlier this season, LaSalle beat tournament teams Iona and Villanova, but were routed at Miami as 6 ½-point 'dogs.

Boise State did most of its damage at home this season (14-1), while its signature win came at Creighton in November as 13-point 'dogs, 83-70. After starting Mountain West play at 0-4 ATS in the favorite role, the Broncos cashed their last four games when laying points, but none of those victories came against current tournament teams. Boise State is playing in its first Big Dance since 2008 when the Broncos lost to Louisville as 14-point 'dogs, 79-61.

What to watch for in NIT Action:

-- Iowa battles Indiana State for the first time ever as the two teams hook up in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes (-12 ½) covered their final six games of the season, while winning seven straight contests at Carver-Hawkeye Arena (6-1 ATS). The Sycamores went the opposite direction down the stretch by cashing just one of its last nine games in a 51-50 victory over Evansville in the Missouri Valley tournament.

-- Providence hosts Charlotte in a Big East/Atlantic 10 matchup, as the Friars won their last four games at the Dunkin Donuts Center. PC (-9 ½) won seven of eight contests down the stretch, but losses to Connecticut and Cincinnati burst its bubble for a potential NCAA Tournament bid. The 49ers captured the craziest victory in any of the conference tournaments by scoring eight points in the final five seconds of a 68-63 upset of Richmond. Charlotte did knock off Butler and Davidson as heavy road underdogs, proving this team isn't afraid of the highway.

-- Arizona State spent most of the conference season on the tournament bubble, but fell short after blowing a late lead in a defeat to UCLA in the Pac-12 tournament quarterfinals. The Sun Devils (-4) return home to host a tough Detroit squad, who closed the season with wins in eight of their final 12 games. The Titans covered four of their last five times in the underdog role, including an upset of eventual Horizon champ Valparaiso, 84-74. ASU dropped five of six down the stretch, but put together a 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS record at home inside conference play.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 03-20-13 11:06 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Nate Silver posted the odds for each team winning its region..........

Midwest West
Louisville 53% Gonzaga 33%
Duke 18% Ohio State 25%
Michigan State 11% Wisconsin 9%
Saint Louis 5% New Mexico 9%
Creighton 3% Arizona 8%
Missouri 3% Kansas State 5%
Memphis 2% Pittsburgh 5%


*****

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Doing some thinking out loud.........

13) One of the NFL’s newer traditions is that the Super Bowl champ opens up at home on the first Thursday night of the season, which this year is September 5; problem is, the Baltimore Orioles have a home game that night, so the Ravens asked them to move the game to an afternoon tilt, but the O’s are so far resisting doing that, since it’s the first game of a 4-game weekend series. Not good.

12) Kicker is the Ravens would rather open on the road September 5 than play at home that first Sunday night, because of the 3+-day advantage in preparation/rest for their Week 2 game, that comes with opening the season on a Thursday.

11) Orioles traded Joe Flacco’s younger brother to the Red Sox last week; he is a minor league third baseman who is a .252 hitter in four minor league seasons, mostly all in A ball. Wonder if that annoyed the Ravens, too.

10) Speaking of annoying, Bobby Valentine is close to signing a deal to be in SNY’s (Mets’ TV station) studios 10-15 nights this summer. Valentine just signed on as the new AD at Sacred Heart University in Connecticut.

9) NFL’s Hall of Fame game in Canton August 4: Cowboys-Dolphins.

8) Someone on Twitter actually researched this: of the 68 NCAA tournament teams, 52 wear Nike, 13 adidas, three Under Armour. Alrighty then.

7) ESPN figured out that Andrew Bynum is making $46,700 a day from the 76ers this season, and he won’t play a game for them. We need to invent the Blunder Hall of Fame, and give awards each year for stuff like this. Bynum would definitely be one of this year’s winners; either him or the guy who traded for him in Philly.

6) I’ve never had SPAM. It looks gross. Apparently people eat this stuff. I’m not sure why. Anyone out there who likes it or knows someone who likes it, please clue me in. I'm told its very salty.

5) Heat-Celtic game Monday night was ESPN’s highest-rated regular season NBA game, ever.

4) Maryland beat Duke two out of three this year; one of Terps’ players is Logan Aronholt, who spent the last three years playing for the Albany Great Danes, who play Duke Friday afternoon in Philly.

Wonder if Aronholt shared the Terps’ scouting knowledge on Duke with his former teammates. They’ll need all the help they can get.

3) It snowed all day Tuesday in beautiful downtown Albany, which is actually slushy downtown Albany; it is March 20, Opening Day is 11 days away and it snowed all day. That said, today is the first day of spring and spring will be welcome here this year, for sure.

2) It still boggles my mind that Super Bowl next February is in Swamp Stadium in New Jersey; what, the Arctic Circle was booked that day? San Diego isn’t good enough? Miami? Phoenix? It just seems wrong.

1) Robert Morris 59, Kentucky 57-- Wonder if this result pumps LIU up for its play-in game with James Madison tonight? Seeing a league rival have success on TV has to boost your confidence, no?
Reply With Quote




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 03-20-13 11:08 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

NCAAB
Dunkel

James Madison vs. LIU-Brooklyn
The Blackbirds look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games versus teams with a winning record. LIU-Brooklyn is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Blackbirds favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: LIU-Brooklyn (-1 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

WEDNESDAY, MARCH 20

Game 623-624: James Madison vs. LIU-Brooklyn (6:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 53.256; LIU-Brooklyn 57.353
Dunkel Line: LIU-Brooklyn by 4; 140
Vegas Line: LIU-Brooklyn by 1 1/2; 144
Dunkel Pick: LIU-Brooklyn (-1 1/2); Under

Game 625-626: LaSalle vs. Boise State (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LaSalle 66.642; Boise State 65.933
Dunkel Line: LaSalle by 1; 144
Vegas Line: Boise State by 2; 139
Dunkel Pick: LaSalle (+2); Over

Game 627-628: Indiana State at Iowa (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana State 57.938; Iowa 69.192
Dunkel Line: Iowa by 11 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: Iowa by 12 1/2; 133
Dunkel Pick: Indiana State (+12 1/2); Over

Game 629-630: Charlotte at Providence (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 57.375 Providence 65.783
Dunkel Line: Providence by 8 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Providence by 9 1/2; 137
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+9 1/2); Under

Game 631-632: Stony Brook at Massachusetts (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stony Brook 59.119; Massachusetts 65.487
Dunkel Line: Massachusetts by 6 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Massachusetts by 4 1/2; 140 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Massachusetts (-4 1/2); Under

Game 633-634: Mercer at Tennessee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mercer 59.384; Tennessee 65.457
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 6; 128
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 9; 125 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Mercer (+9); Over

Game 635-636: Long Beach State at Baylor (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Long Beach State 53.621; Baylor 64.401
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 11; 155
Vegas Line: Baylor by 12 1/2; 149
Dunkel Pick: Long Beach State (+12 1/2); Over

Game 637-638: Charleston Southern at Southern Mississippi (9:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charleston Southern 51.124; Southern Mississippi 67.521
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 16 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 13 1/2; 143
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (-13 1/2); Under

Game 639-640: Detroit at Arizona State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 59.356; Arizona State 65.053
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 5 1/2; 151
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 4; 153
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-4); Under

Game 647-648: Western Illinois at Purdue (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings:
Dunkel Line:
Vegas Line:
Dunkel Pick:

Game 649-650: Richmond at Bryant (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Richmond 59.363; Bryant 55.714
Dunkel Line: Richmond by 3 1/2; 149
Vegas Line: Richmond by 5 1/2; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bryant (+5 1/2); Over

Game 651-652: Tulsa at Wright State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 54.087; Wright State 60.676
Dunkel Line: Wright State by 6 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Wright State by 5; 127
Dunkel Pick: Wright State (-5); Under

Game 653-654: North Dakota State at Western Michigan (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota State 57.427; Western Michigan 56.344
Dunkel Line: North Dakota State by 1; 128
Vegas Line: Western Michigan by 1 1/2; 124 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Dakota State (+1 1/2); Over

Game 655-656: Texas at Houston (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas 61.860; Houston 56.709
Dunkel Line: Texas by 5; 144
Vegas Line: Texas by 2 1/2; 148 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-2 1/2); Under

Game 659-660: Elon at Canisius (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Elon 50.282; Canisius 59.486
Dunkel Line: Canisius by 9; 139
Vegas Line: Canisius by 7; 143
Dunkel Pick: Canisius (-7); Under

Game 661-662: South Alabama at Tulane (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Alabama 52.521; Tulane 57.032
Dunkel Line: Tulane by 4 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Tulane by 6 1/2; 140
Dunkel Pick: South Alabama (+6 1/2); Over

Game 663-664: WI-Green Bay at Bradley (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Green Bay 56.745; Bradley 55.349
Dunkel Line: WI-Green Bay by 1 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Pick; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick: WI-Green Bay; Over

Game 665-666: Chicago State at Illinois-Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago State 44.769; Illinois-Chicago 57.551
Dunkel Line: Illinois-Chicago by 13; 127
Vegas Line: Illinois-Chicago by 11 1/2; 129 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois-Chicago (-11 1/2); Under

Game 667-668: Oral Roberts at TX-Arlington (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oral Roberts 52.594; TX-Arlington 55.243
Dunkel Line: TX-Arlington by 2 1/2; 129
Vegas Line: TX-Arlington by 4 1/2; 133
Dunkel Pick: Oral Roberts (+4 1/2); Under

Game 669-670: Cal Poly at Weber State (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cal Poly 56.390; Weber State 61.640
Dunkel Line: Weber State by 5 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Weber State by 6 1/2; 129
Dunkel Pick: Cal Poly (+6 1/2); Over

Game 671-672: Air Force at Hawaii (12:00 a.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 59.334; Hawaii 53.008
Dunkel Line: Air Force by 6 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Air Force by 1; 147 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (-1); Under

Game 673-674: High Point at UC-Irvine (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: High Point 49.115; UC-Irvine 55.535
Dunkel Line: UC-Irvine by 6 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: UC-Irvine by 8 1/2; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick: High Point (+8 1/2); Over

Game 679-680: North Dakota at Northern Iowa (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Dakota 49.098; Northern Iowa 60.439
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 11 1/2; 137
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 15 1/2; 131
Dunkel Pick: North Dakota (+15 1/2); Over

Game 681-682: Fairfield at Kent State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Fairfield 52.086; Kent State 57.176
Dunkel Line: Kent State by 5; 133
Vegas Line: Kent State by 7; 125
Dunkel Pick: Fairfield (+7); Over
Reply With Quote




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 03-20-13 11:12 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

NCAAB
Short Sheet

Wednesday, March 20

NCAA Tournament Betting Trends

NCAA Tournament, First Round
Long Island vs. James Madison, 6:40 ET TRUTV
Long Island: 8-1 ATS after winning 5 or 6 of their last 7 games
James Madison: 12-23 ATS off BB Unders

NCAA Tournament, First Round
La Salle vs. Boise State, 9:10 ET TRUTV
La Salle: 6-0 ATS off BB Unders
Boise State: 4-18 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games


NIT Tournament Betting Trends

NIT Tournament, First Round
Indiana State at Iowa, 7:00 ET ESPN2
Indiana State: 13-27 ATS off ATS losses in 4 of their last 5 games
Iowa: 11-3 ATS in home games

NIT Tournament, First Round
Charlotte at Providence, 7:15 ET
Charlotte: 4-19 ATS after playing 3+ games as an underdog
Providence: 8-4 ATS in home games

NIT Tournament, First Round
Louisiana Tech at Florida State, 7:15 ET
Stony Brook: 5-1 ATS after making 50%+ of their three-point shot attempts
Massachusetts: 3-10 ATS vs. non-conference opponents

NIT Tournament, First Round
Mercer at Tennessee, 8:00 ET ESPNU
Mercer: 9-1 ATS after winning 4 or 5 of their last 6 games
Tennessee: 5-13 ATS in first round tournament games

NIT Tournament, First Round
Long Beach State at Baylor, 9:00 ET ESPN2
Long Beach State: 1-6 ATS after scoring 60 points or less
Baylor: 5-0 ATS off BB games committing 11 or less turnovers

NIT Tournament, First Round
Charleston Southern at Southern Miss, 9:15 ET
Charleston Southern: 0-4 ATS off a combined score of 155+ points
Southern Miss: 6-1 ATS in tournament games

NIT Tournament, First Round
Detroit at Arizona State, 10:00 ET ESPNU
Detroit: 2-13 ATS after allowing 60 points or less
Arizona State: 5-1 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games


CBI Tournament Betting Trends

CBI Tournament, First Round
Western Illinois at Purdue, 7:00 ET
Western Illinois: 1-12 ATS off 4+ games with a combined score of 125 points or less
Purdue: 8-1 ATS off BB games committing 8 or less turnovers

CBI Tournament, First Round
Richmond at Bryant, 7:00 ET
Richmond: 10-3 ATS in March
Bryant: 0-2 ATS off 3+ conference games

CBI Tournament, First Round
Tulsa at Wright State, 7:00 ET
Tulsa: 2-7 ATS off BB Overs
Wright State: 8-2 ATS after playing as a road underdog

CBI Tournament, First Round
North Dakota State at Western Michigan, 7:00 ET
North Dakota State: 15-3 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Western Michigan: 0-6 ATS off ATS losses in 2 of their last 3 games

CBI Tournament, First Round
Texas at Houston, 9:00 ET
Texas: 6-0 ATS off a conference loss by 10+ points
Houston: 13-4 Over playing with 5 or 6 days rest


CIT Tournament Betting Trends

CIT Tournament, First Round
Elon at Canisius, 7:00 ET
Elon: 22-9 ATS after allowing 5 or less offensive rebounds
Canisius: 0-6 ATS after scoring and allowing 80+ points

CIT Tournament, First Round
South Alabama at Tulane, 8:00 ET
South Alabama: 6-0 ATS after losing 2 of their last 3 games
Tulane: 0-6 ATS after allowing 80+ points

CIT Tournament, First Round
Wisconsin Green Bay at Bradley, 8:00 ET
Wisc Green Bay: 13-4 ATS off a loss by 6 points or less
Bradley: 6-13 ATS after playing as an underdog

CIT Tournament, First Round
Chicago State at Illinois Chicago, 8:00 ET
Chicago State: 0-3 ATS off an ATS win
Illinois Chicago: 8-1 ATS off a SU loss / ATS win

CIT Tournament, First Round
Oral Roberts at Texas Arlington, 8:30 ET
Oral Roberts: 3-13 ATS in March
Texas Arlington: 10-3 ATS after playing as an underdog

CIT Tournament, First Round
Cal Poly Slo at Weber State, 9:00 ET
Cal Poly Slo: 6-0 ATS off 3+ games allowing 31 or less rebounds
Weber State: 0-7 ATS after allowing 5 or less offensive rebounds

CIT Tournament, First Round
Air Force at Hawaii, 11:59 ET
Air Force: 4-12 ATS away after playing as an underdog
Hawaii: 12-3 ATS off an Under

CIT Tournament, First Round
High Point at Cal Irvine, 10:00 ET
High Point: 4-8 ATS in tournament games
Cal Irvine: 14-5 Over vs. non-conference opponents

CIT Tournament, First Round
** Rescheduled from Tuesday **
North Dakota at Northern Iowa, 8:00 ET
North Dakota: 6-0 ATS in March
Northern Iowa: 2-9 ATS after having 5 or less offensive rebounds

CIT Tournament, First Round
** Rescheduled from Tuesday **
Fairfield at Kent State, 7:00 ET
Fairfield: 2-9 ATS off BB ATS losses
Kent State: 12-4 ATS off BB games with 12 or less assists


Thursday, March 21, 2013

NCAA Tournament Betting Trends

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
North Carolina A&T vs. Louisville, 6:50 ET TBS
North Carolina A&T:
Louisville:

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Missouri vs. Colorado State, 9:20 ET TBS
Missouri: 17-6 ATS off an ATS loss
Colorado State: 5-13 ATS off 5+ games committing 14 or less turnovers

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Davidson vs. Marquette, 3:10 ET TRUTV
Davidson: 3-10 ATS off an ATS win
Marquette: 9-0 ATS off a conference loss

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Bucknell vs. Butler, 12:40 ET TRUTV
Bucknell: 2-10 ATS off 4+ games committing 14 or less turnovers
Butler: 17-3 ATS playing on a neutral court

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Valparaiso vs. Michigan State, 12:15 ET CBS
Valparaiso: 3-11 ATS off 4+ wins
Michigan State: 22-8 ATS off a loss by 3 points or less

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
TBD vs. Memphis, 2:45 ET TRUTV
TBD:
Memphis:

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Akron vs. Virginia Commonwealth, 9:45 ET CBS
Akron: 14-4 ATS in tournament games
VA Commonwealth: 0-7 ATS away off a SU loss

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
South Dakota State vs. Michigan, 7:15 ET CBS
South Dakota State: 20-10 ATS off BB conference games
Michigan: 5-12 ATS off BB conference games

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Southern vs. Gonzaga, 4:10 ET TBS
Southern: 1-6 ATS off BB games scoring 30 or less first-half points
Gonzaga: 8-1 Under off a conference game

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Wichita State vs. Pittsburgh, 1:40 ET TBS
Wichita State: 3-18 ATS as a neutral court underdog of 6 points or less
Pittsburgh: 10-2 ATS away off ATS losses in 2 of their last 3 games

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Harvard vs. New Mexico, 9:50 ET TNT
Harvard: 6-16 ATS playing with 7+ days rest
New Mexico: 10-0 ATS off 3+ games allowing 60 points or less

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Belmont vs. Arizona, 7:20 ET TNT
Belmont: 0-6 ATS in March
Arizona: 6-0 Under vs. non-conference opponents

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Oregon vs. Oklahoma State, 4:40 ET TNT
Oregon: 2-8 ATS off BB conference wins
Oklahoma State: 8-2 ATS off an Under

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
New Mexico State vs. St. Louis, 2:10 ET TNT
New Mexico State: 16-4 ATS away off BB Unders
St. Louis: 5-16 ATS away off BB games with a combined score of 125 or less points

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
California vs. UNLV, 7:25 ET TRUTV
California: 21-7 ATS away off BB conference losses
UNLV: 0-8 ATS off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Montana vs. Syracuse, 9:55 ET TRUTV
Montana: 9-2 ATS off an Under
Syracuse: 8-19 ATS off 5+ games forcing 14 or less turnovers


Friday, March 22, 2013

NCAA Tournament Betting Trends

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Albany vs. Duke, 12:15 ET CBS
Albany: 7-0 ATS away after winning 3 of their last 4 games
Duke: 15-28 ATS off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Cincinnati vs. Creighton, 2:45 ET CBS
Cincinnati: 5-14 ATS off a conference game
Creighton: 8-1 ATS away off an ATS win

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Florida Gulf Coast vs. Georgetown, 6:50 ET TBS
Florida GC: 6-0 ATS in March
Georgetown: 7-1 Under after winning 2 of their last 3 games

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Oklahoma vs. San Diego State, 9:20 ET TBS
Oklahoma: 1-11 ATS away off BB losses
San Diego State: 8-2 Over as a favorite

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
TBD vs. Indiana, 4:10 ET TBS
TBD:
Indiana:

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Temple vs. NC State, 1:40 ET TBS
Temple: 7-1 Over as an underdog
NC State: 9-2 ATS after allowing 80+ points

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Iona vs. Ohio State, 7:15 ET CBS
Iona: 9-21 ATS off a win by 3 points or less
Ohio State: 20-9 ATS off an Under

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Iowa State vs. Notre Dame, 9:45 ET CBS
Iowa State: 11-3 ATS off a conference loss
Notre Dame: 7-17 ATS away after winning 2 of their last 3 games

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Western Kentucky vs. Kansas, 9:50 ET TNT
Western Kentucky: 2-8 ATS away after having 9 or less assists
Kansas: 13-6 ATS off BB conference games

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Villanova vs. North Carolina, 7:20 ET TNT
Villanova: 7-19 ATS after winning 2 of their last 3 games
North Carolina: 8-1 ATS off a conference loss

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Mississippi vs. Wisconsin, 12:40 ET TRUTV
Mississippi: 12-3 Over with a total of 129.5 points or less
Wisconsin: 15-6 ATS after scoring 55 points or less

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
TBD vs. Kansas State, 3:10 ET TRUTV
TBD:
Kansas State:

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Northwestern State vs. Florida, 7:25 ET TRUTV
Northwestern State: 10-2 Over off BB conference games
Florida: 2-8 ATS after making 45% or less of their free throw attempts

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Minnesota vs. UCLA, 9:55 ET TRUTV
Minnesota: 9-21 ATS away off 3+ ATS losses
UCLA: 6-0 Over after having 9 or less assists

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Pacific vs. Miami FL, 2:10 ET TNT
Pacific: 3-11 ATS away off BB wins
Miami FL: 15-6 ATS as a favorite

NCAA Tournament, Second Round
Colorado vs. Illinois, 4:40 ET TNT
Colorado: 15-5 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
Illinois: 0-6 ATS playing with 5 or 6 days rest
Reply With Quote




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 03-20-13 11:15 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wednesday, March 20

Play-in games (Dayton, Wed)
James Madison's leading scorer Goins is suspended for first half after he was arrested over weekend; Dukes finished 4th in #20 league, are 9-7 in non-league games. LIU won five in row, 15 of last 18 games after 6-game losing skid early in January; Blackbirds beat Hofstra by 4 in only game vs CAA foe- they finished T2 in #24 league, make 38.5% behind the arc (#16 in country). Seven of last eight JMU games were decided by 5 or less points. NEC squads are 2-0 in play-in games, winning by 22-9 in a pair of games vs MEAC teams- they haven't won any other tournament games in last 28 years.

Boise State won at Creighton, lost by 4 at Michigan State, they went 9-8 in MWC, 14-2 outside it; Broncos make 38.7% of 3's (#15 in country), but they're a young team (one senior in rotation) and depend on Marks to be explosive scorer (5-6-38-4-27-14 points last six games). LaSalle is also guard-oriented, making 37.1% behind arc. Unsure if 6-11 Zack will play here (missed last three games); Explorers are 3-2 vs top 60 teams, beating Villanova/VCU/Butler, losing to Miami/Saint Louis. MWC was #3 league this year, A-16 #8. Boise State is 4-7 vs top 60 teams. You'd think this would be a high scoring teams, with teams that can shoot.

Other tournaments
There is nothing as futile as trying to handicap these consolation events that run opposite the NCAAs, especially in the first round, because the most important issue is this: Who still wants to be playing? I have no idea who still wants to play; once they play a game or two, then maybe we can come up with something, but for this week, I'd stay away. That said, some very brief notes on these games........

-- Indiana State lost six of its last eight games; its last three wins were all by a point. Iowa split pair of neutral court tilts with MVC teams, with 75-63 loss to Wichita State, 80-73 win over Northern Iowa.
-- Charlotte is 6-9 in last 15 games after starting season 15-2; they make 26.7% behind arc, 4th-worst in country. Providence lost last two games, scoring 59-44 points; they split pair vs A-16 teams this year.
-- UMass is 10-3 outside A-16; they're 5-2 in last seven games, got beat by VCU in A-16 tourney. Stony Brook is 0-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 11 at UConn, 7 at Maryland, both before Christmas.
-- Mercer is 5-5 outside A-Sun, winning at Alabama, losing at Georgia by 9; they lost other two top 100 games, by 29-18 points. Tennessee is 9-2 in last 11 games, disappointed to be left out of NCAAs.
-- Long Beach State played #1 non-league schedule in country, going 4-8 with six losses by 15+ points. Baylor beat Kansas by 23 here, but lost nine of last 13 overall.

-- Southern Miss was 0-3 vs Memphis this year, losing conference final in double OT to Tigers; they're 7-5 in last 12 games, after starting 18-4. Charleston Southern is 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 9-12-13 points.
-- Detroit went 8-6 vs #14 non-league schedule; they're 2-5 vs teams in top 100, beating Akron/Valpo. Arizona State played 6th-easiest slate in country pre-conference; they've lost five of last six games overall.
-- Western Illinois plays the slowest-paced games in America; their best player Parks was hurt during Summit tourney, status ?? here. Purdue is 5-9 in its last 14 games- they're only 7-6 in non-league games.
-- Richmond lost three of last four games; they make 38% from arc, #27 in US. Bryant's bench plays 2nd-least minutes in America; they're 6th-shortest- this is just their 5th year in D-I, so they're happy to be here.
-- Young Tulsa (#304 in experience/rookie coach) is 5-7 in last 12 games, but 3-2 in last five road games. Wright State won three of last four tilts, losing at Valparaiso in Horizon final.
-- North Dakota State won four of last five games; they lost at Akron by 15 in only game vs MAC opponent. Western Michigan is 2-3 in its last five games; they beat Oakland by 4, in only game vs Summit foe.

-- Inexperienced Texas (youngest team in country) is 6-4 since Kabongo got eligible; they're 10-0 this year vs teams ranked outside the top 150. Houston was 8-10 in C-USA; they played worst non-league schedule in entire country, going 11-2.
-- Elon hasn't played in 10 days; they won five of last seven road games. Canisius hasn't played in 11 days; they're 3-5 in last eight games overall. Griffs are 8-1 vs teams ranked outside top 200.
-- South Alabama gets 26.8% of points from foul line, #2 in nation; they lost by 14 at UAB, in only game vs C-USA opponent. Tulane lost five of last six games after starting season 18-9.
-- Green Bay is 0-2 vs MVC teams, losing by 2 to Southern Illinois at home, by 17 at Drake. Bradley lost 12 of last 18 games, after starting the season 10-4- they beat UIC by a point, only game vs Horizon team.
-- Ill-Chicago lost seven of last ten games; they're only 4-3 vs teams not in top 250. Chicago State is 0-3 vs Horizon teams, losing to Green Bay by 5, Valparaiso by 21, Loyola by 3 in OT.

-- Oral Roberts replaced UT-Arlington in Southland; they've lost four of last five games, went 5-8 vs #23 non-conference schedule. Arlington lost WAC final in Vegas Saturday; they're 9-4 in their last 13 games.
-- Cal Poly is 9-2 in its last 11 games; they play 3rd-slowest tempo in country- four of their last seven losses are by 2 points. Weber State lost Big Sky final at Montana, ending its 13-game winning streak.
-- Cal-Irvine lost Big West final in Anaheim Saturday; they're 8-2 in last ten games. High Point is 5-8 out of conference; they lost three of last four games, after 7-game win streak.
-- Northern Iowa (-16.5) beat North Dakota 72-47 Nov 17; UND made iust 5-22 behind arc, but won four of last five overall, blowing 12-point lead over Weber in Big Sky semis. UNI lost three of last four games.
-- Fairfield lost four of last six games, scoring 46.7 ppg; Stags are 2-4 vs teams in top 125, losing by 9-15-19-11 points. Kent State won six of its last seven games, then lost by 3 to Akron in MAC semis.
-- Air Force star Lyons (knee) is out; Falcons lost seven of last 10 games but beat Riverside by 8 in only game vs Big West opponent. Hawaii is 2-5 in last seven games, but won four of last five at home.
Reply With Quote




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 03-20-13 11:16 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

NCAAB

Wednesday, March 20

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Wednesday, March 20

6:40 PM
LONG ISLAND vs. JAMES MADISON
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 6 of James Madison's last 8 games
James Madison is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

7:00 PM
INDIANA STATE vs. IOWA
Indiana State is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana State's last 6 games on the road
Iowa is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Iowa's last 8 games

7:00 PM
RICHMOND vs. BRYANT
Richmond is 6-12-2 ATS in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Richmond's last 8 games on the road
No trends available

7:00 PM
TULSA vs. WRIGHT STATE
Tulsa is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tulsa's last 5 games on the road
Wright State is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Wright State is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home

7:00 PM
NORTH DAKOTA STATE vs. WESTERN MICHIGAN
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Western Michigan's last 8 games at home
Western Michigan is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

7:00 PM
WESTERN ILLINOIS vs. PURDUE
No trends available
Purdue is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Purdue is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

7:00 PM
ELON vs. CANISIUS
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Canisius's last 18 games
Canisius is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

7:15 PM
STONY BROOK vs. MASSACHUSETTS
No trends available
Massachusetts is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Massachusetts's last 11 games

7:15 PM
CHARLOTTE vs. PROVIDENCE
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Charlotte's last 9 games on the road
Charlotte is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Providence is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Providence is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games

8:00 PM
MERCER vs. TENNESSEE
No trends available
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games

8:00 PM
SOUTH ALABAMA vs. TULANE
No trends available
Tulane is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Tulane's last 11 games

8:00 PM
WISC-GREEN BAY vs. BRADLEY
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Bradley's last 6 games
Bradley is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

8:00 PM
CHICAGO STATE vs. ILLINOIS-CHICAGO
No trends available
Illinois-Chicago is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Illinois-Chicago's last 5 games

8:30 PM
ORAL ROBERTS vs. TEXAS-ARLINGTON
No trends available
Texas-Arlington is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games

9:00 PM
LONG BEACH STATE vs. BAYLOR
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Long Beach State's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Baylor's last 9 games
Baylor is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games at home

9:00 PM
TEXAS vs. HOUSTON
Texas is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Texas's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Houston's last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home

9:00 PM
CAL POLY vs. WEBER STATE
No trends available
Weber State is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games
Weber State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

9:10 PM
LA SALLE vs. BOISE STATE
No trends available
Boise State is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

9:15 PM
CHARLESTON SOUTHERN vs. SOUTHERN MISS
No trends available
Southern Miss is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Southern Miss's last 8 games at home

10:00 PM
DETROIT vs. ARIZONA STATE
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona State's last 5 games at home
Arizona State is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games at home

10:30 PM
HIGH POINT vs. UC IRVINE
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 6 of UC Irvine's last 9 games
UC Irvine is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games


Thursday, March 21

1:00 AM
AIR FORCE vs. HAWAII
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Hawaii's last 5 games
Hawaii is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

12:15 PM
VALPARAISO vs. MICHIGAN STATE
No trends available
Michigan State is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Michigan State's last 6 games

12:40 PM
BUCKNELL vs. BUTLER
No trends available
Butler is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Butler's last 6 games

1:40 PM
WICHITA STATE vs. PITTSBURGH
No trends available
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

2:10 PM
NEW MEXICO STATE vs. SAINT LOUIS
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Saint Louis's last 5 games
Saint Louis is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games

3:10 PM
DAVIDSON vs. MARQUETTE
No trends available
Marquette is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Marquette's last 5 games

4:10 PM
SOUTHERN vs. GONZAGA
No trends available
Gonzaga is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Gonzaga's last 9 games

4:40 PM
OREGON vs. OKLAHOMA STATE
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma State's last 5 games
Oklahoma State is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games

7:15 PM
SOUTH DAKOTA STATE vs. MICHIGAN
No trends available
Michigan is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Michigan is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

7:20 PM
BELMONT vs. ARIZONA
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 7 games
Arizona is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

7:27 PM
CALIFORNIA vs. UNLV
No trends available
UNLV is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
UNLV is 7-15 ATS in its last 22 games

9:20 PM
MISSOURI vs. COLORADO STATE
No trends available
Colorado State is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Colorado State's last 7 games

9:45 PM
AKRON vs. VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
No trends available
Virginia Commonwealth is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games
Virginia Commonwealth is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

9:50 PM
HARVARD vs. NEW MEXICO
No trends available
New Mexico is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of New Mexico's last 11 games

9:57 PM
MONTANA vs. SYRACUSE
No trends available
Syracuse is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Syracuse is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games


Friday, March 22

12:15 PM
ALBANY vs. DUKE
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Duke's last 6 games
Duke is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games

12:40 PM
MISSISSIPPI vs. WISCONSIN
No trends available
Wisconsin is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games
Wisconsin is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

1:40 PM
TEMPLE vs. NORTH CAROLINA STATE
No trends available
North Carolina State is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of North Carolina State's last 8 games

2:10 PM
PACIFIC vs. MIAMI
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 8 games
Miami is 19-3 SU in its last 22 games

2:45 PM
CINCINNATI vs. CREIGHTON
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Creighton's last 12 games
Creighton is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 games

4:40 PM
COLORADO vs. ILLINOIS
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Illinois's last 8 games
Illinois is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

6:50 PM
FLORIDA GULF COAST vs. GEORGETOWN
No trends available
Georgetown is 11-3-1 ATS in its last 15 games
Georgetown is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games

7:15 PM
IONA vs. OHIO STATE
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Ohio State's last 8 games
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

7:20 PM
VILLANOVA vs. NORTH CAROLINA
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of North Carolina's last 9 games
North Carolina is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games

7:27 PM
NORTHWESTERN STATE vs. FLORIDA
No trends available
Florida is 18-5 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Florida's last 9 games

9:20 PM
OKLAHOMA vs. SAN DIEGO STATE
No trends available
San Diego State is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego State's last 5 games

9:45 PM
IOWA STATE vs. NOTRE DAME
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Notre Dame's last 6 games
Notre Dame is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games

9:50 PM
WESTERN KENTUCKY vs. KANSAS
No trends available
Kansas is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games

9:57 PM
MINNESOTA vs. UCLA
No trends available
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of UCLA's last 6 games
UCLA is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 03-20-13 11:17 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

NCAAB

Wednesday, March 20

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NCAA Play-in Games: JMU vs. LIU Brooklyn, La Salle vs. BSU
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

James Madison Dukes vs. LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds (-1.5, 144.5)

LIU Brooklyn is no stranger to the rigors of March as it begins its third consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament. While the Blackbirds have been turned away the previous two times by a pair of the nation’s elite programs, they should have a better opportunity to nail down their first NCAA tournament victory in school history Wednesday in a first-round matchup against James Madison in Dayton, Ohio. In its first two tournament appearances, LIU Brooklyn has exited quickly thanks to second-round games against North Carolina in 2011 and Michigan State in 2012.

The Blackbirds, who clinched an automatic berth by virtue of their victory over Mount Saint Mary’s in the Northeast Conference tournament title game, enter this round of 68 with the No. 5 scoring offense in the country at 79.5 points and tied for eighth in shooting (48.3 percent). The Dukes are on a four-game winning streak after capturing their second Colonial Athletic Association tournament championship. James Madison is seeking its first tournament win since bowing out in the second round three straight years from 1981-83.

TV: 6:40 p.m. ET, truTV

ABOUT JAMES MADISON (20-14, 21-10-0 ATS): The Dukes are in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1994 and fifth time in school history. James Madison received the bulk of its offense from A.J. Davis and Devon Moore – the team’s second- and third-leading scorers – during the conference tournament as they combined for 105 of the team’s 200 points. Leading scorer Rayshawn Goins enjoyed his best performance in the title game since missing a game Feb. 6 with a foot injury, shooting 6-for-10 with 14 points and 13 rebounds. Over his previous eight games, Goins averaged 9.1 points and 5 rebounds, but converted only 30.1 percent of his field-goal attempts.

ABOUT LIU BROOKLYN (20-13, 4-0-0 ATS): The Blackbirds overcame a number of obstacles to claim their third consecutive NEC crown as four players were suspended for their role in a fight this fall and reigning league player of the year Julian Boyd tore his anterior cruciate ligament in December. "Everything went right the last two years and this year they had to show their true colors," first-year coach Jack Perri said following the team’s 91-70 victory over Mount Saint Mary’s. Northeast Conference Player of the Year Jamal Olasewere is the Blackbirds’ all-time career scoring leader with 1,851 points and ranks fourth in school history with 953 rebounds.

TRENDS:

* Dukes are 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games.
* Blackbirds are 5-1 ATS in their last six neutral-site games.
* Dukes are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
* Under is 15-6-2 in Dukes' last 23 overall.

TIP-INS:

1. Northeast Conference tournament MVP C.J. Garner (16.1 points) averaged 28 during LIU Brooklyn’s three-game run in the conference tournament.

2. Coach Matt Brady has directed James Madison to three 20-win seasons in his five years, two more than the school posted since its last CAA title.

3. Perri became the third first-year coach to guide his team to the NEC tournament title.



La Salle Explorers vs. Boise State Broncos (-1.5, 139)

Guard play has taken on added significance in recent NCAA Tournament play, a trend that Boise State and La Salle have taken to an extreme. Two similar teams will take the court Wednesday when the Broncos and Explorers meet in a first-round game in Dayton, Ohio. Boise State relies heavily on its four-guard lineup and the nation’s 13th-best 3-point shooting team while La Salle can sometimes employ five guards and finished second in the Atlantic-10 averaging 8.1 steals.

The Broncos, who were the first team in the country to post multiple victories over ranked opponents, received an at-large bid following their fifth-place finish in the Mountain West. Boise State won five of six entering its conference tournament, but lost in the quarterfinals to San Diego State after defeating the Aztecs five days earlier. Similarly, La Salle won seven of eight before losing at Saint Louis to close out the regular season and against Butler in the Atlantic-10 tournament quarterfinals.

TV: 9:10 p.m. ET, truTV

ABOUT LA SALLE (21-9, 12-12-2 ATS): The Explorers received their first NCAA Tournament invite since 1992 and regularly start four guards, although five average at least 23.8 minutes. Ramon Galloway, a South Carolina transfer, leads La Salle in scoring, assists and steals. Sam Mills is 17-of-33 beyond the arc over his last nine games and often draws the opponent’s best perimeter player. However, the Explorers could be without 6-11 sophomore center Steve Zack, who is listed as day-to-day with a foot injury. Zack’s potential absence looms large against a Boise State team that lacks any significant size in its frontcourt.

ABOUT BOISE STATE (21-10, 16-11-0 ATS): The Broncos are in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2008 and sixth time in program history. Anthony Drmic (17.3 points) and Derrick Marks (16.3) make up one of the top-scoring guard duos in the country. While Drmic is the team’s leading scorer, Marks is the team’s best playmaker and leads the team in assists (3.9) as well as steals (1.8). Boise State is unlikely to be intimidated by the stage after winning at Creighton – behind a career-high 35 points from Marks – and losing by four at Michigan State during its non-conference schedule.

TRENDS:

* Explorers are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five neutral-site games.
* Broncos are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 neutral-site games.
* Over is 8-2 in Explorers' last 10 neutral-site games.
* Over is 6-1 in Broncos' last seven neutral-site games.

TIP-INS:

1. Marks leads Boise State with 13 blocked shots.

2. La Salle is 5-1 in games decided by three points or less.

3. The Broncos went 13-4 when they hit at least eight 3-pointers.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 03-20-13 11:19 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

NCAAB

Wednesday, March 20

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NCAA tournament biggest betting mismatches: Round of 64
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The NCAA tournament presents college basketball bettors with some unique matchups they wouldn’t get anywhere else, which makes the Big Dance ripe with mismatches.

Of course, you see more of these in games involving high and low seeds – like a No. 1 versus a No. 16 – but here are four underlying mismatches that may make or break your bets in the second round.

No. 3 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 14 Valparaiso Crusaders (+10, 127)

Spartans’ home-court edge vs. Crusaders’ Indiana roots

Michigan State wound up in the toughest region in the tournament – the Midwest – but it got the luck of the draw with its first two tournament games scheduled in its home state. The Spartans make the short trip to Detroit to face the Crusaders in the Palace of Auburn Hills Thursday, a homecoming for many of MSU’s players.

Valparaiso is just four hours from Detroit but Michigan basketball fans don’t take kindly to teams from Indiana, whether their names are the Hoosiers or the Crusaders.

"It's going to be a home game for them basically in Michigan," Valpo head coach Bryce Drew told MLive.com.

No. 12 Mississippi Rebels vs. No. 5 Wisconsin Badgers (-6, 28)

Rebels’ up-tempo offense vs. Badgers’ slow-motion sets

Ole Miss ranks 10th in the country in points per game (77.9) and fires up an average of 62 shots an outing – fifth most in the land. Wisconsin, on the other hand, attempted just 47 field goals in its 50-43 loss to Ohio State in the Big Ten title game and averages 65.5 points on the season. Someone’s got to give in this West Regional showdown.

The Rebels come into the tournament with a ton of momentum and a chip on their shoulder after winning the SEC championship but only receiving a No. 12 seed for their efforts. Ole Miss is hoping starting point guard Jarvis Summers can return from a concussion and dictate the flow but books seem to think Wisconsin will control the pace with the total set at 128 points – Mississippi’s second-lowest total all season.

No. 4 Saint Louis Billikens vs. No. 13 New Mexico State Aggies (+9, 122)

Billikens’ undersized F Dwayne Evans vs. Aggies’ 7-footer Sim Bhullar

Saint Louis built a ton of buzz heading into March, winning both the A-10 regular season and tournament titles. That success is in part due to 6-foot-5 forward Dwayne Evans, who has stepped up as the Billikens’ go-to scorer in recent games. Evans was recently called a "below-the-rim workaholic” by local reporters, which may not bode well for the SLU junior versus the Aggies’ towering frontcourt.

New Mexico State will plug 7-foot-5, 355-pound center Sim Bhullar in the middle of the paint in order to disrupt Evans. Bhullar averaged 10.2 points, 6.5 rebounds and swatted more than two blocks per game. Behind him is fellow Toronto native 6-foot-10 forward Renaldo Dixon, who averaged 1.3 blocks in just under 19 minutes a game. The Aggies finished 13th in the nation in swats – 5.5 an outing – and held opponents to 39.8 percent shooting.

No. 5 VCU Rams vs. No. 12 Akron Zips (+7.5, 135.5)

Rams’ pressure defense vs. Zips’ shaky backcourt

VCU leads the nation in steals (11.8 per game) and turnovers forced (19.9 per game). The Rams thrive on their foes' mistakes and turn those into points, a big reason why they shoot 44.9 percent from the field. It’s not too tough when you keep getting fast break layups.

The Zips are a man down heading into the NCAA after starting point guard Alex Abreu was arrested for drug trafficking and suspended before the MAC tournament. Akron had 31 total turnovers in the two games without Abreu and average 13.7 on the year. VCU head coach Shaka Smart was once an assistant for the Zips and knows Akron head coach Keith Dambrot very, very well.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 03-20-13 11:20 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

Wednesday, March 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount

James Madison - 6:40 PM ET LIU Brooklyn +0 500 POD # 7
LIU Brooklyn - Under 147.5 500

Indiana St. - 7:00 PM ET Iowa -11 500 POD # 3
Iowa - Under 134.5 500

Western Illinois - 7:00 PM ET Western Illinois +11.5 500
Purdue - Over 116.5 500

Tulsa - 7:00 PM ET Tulsa +6.5 500
Wright St. - Over 128 500

Richmond - 7:00 PM ET Richmond -4.5 500
Bryant - Over 146 500

North Dakota State - 7:00 PM ET North Dakota State +0 500 POD # 2
Western Michigan - Over 125 500

Elon University - 7:00 PM ET Canisius -6 500
Canisius - Over 145.5 500

Fairfield - 7:00 PM ET Fairfield +4.5 500
Kent St. - Over 126 500

Charlotte - 7:15 PM ET Providence -8.5 500
Providence - Under 138 500

Stony Brook - 7:15 PM ET Stony Brook +4 500
Massachusetts - Over 143 500

Mercer - 8:00 PM ET Tennessee -8 500
Tennessee - Under 127 500

Green Bay - 8:00 PM ET Green Bay -1 500
Bradley - Under 136.5 500

South Alabama - 8:00 PM ET South Alabama +6 500
Tulane - Over 143 500

Chicago St. - 8:00 PM ET Chicago St. +10.5 500
Illinois-Chicago - Over 130 500

North Dakota - 8:00 PM ET North Dakota +16 500
Northern Iowa - Over 133 500

Oral Roberts - 8:30 PM ET Oral Roberts +3.5 500
Texas-Arlington - Over 136.5 500

Long Beach St. - 9:00 PM ET Baylor -12 500 POD # 1
Baylor - Over 149.5 500

Texas - 9:00 PM ET Texas -3 500 POD # 5
Houston - Over 150 500

Cal Poly SLO - 9:00 PM ET Weber St. -6.5 500
Weber St. - Under 130 500

La Salle - 9:10 PM ET Boise St. -1.5 500 POD # 4
Boise St. - Over 139.5 500

Charleston Southern - 9:15 PM ET Southern Miss -11.5 500
Southern Miss - Under 144.5 500

Detroit - 10:00 PM ET Detroit +3.5 500
Arizona St. - Over 155 500

High Point - 10:30 PM ET High Point +8 500
UC Irvine - Over 135.5 500

Air Force - 11:59 PM ET Hawaii -1.5 500 POD # 6
Hawaii - Under 147.5 500




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 03-20-13 11:37 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

Thursday's Prime-Time Tips

March 20, 2013


**North Carolina A&T vs. Louisville**

--Louisville (29-5 straight up, 20-14 against the spread) and its fans will revel in taking over Rupp Arena this weekend, especially since the host school in Lexington saw its season end with an embarrassing loss at Robert Morris in the NIT. The Cardinals are the No. 1 overall seed in the tournament although the Midwest region looks like the toughest with power programs and Hall of Fame coaches (Duke and Michigan St.), not to mention dangerous and athletic teams like Memphis and Missouri.

--Most books have made U of L the +450 ‘chalk’ to win its first national championship since 1986. The Cardinals are the even-money favorites to win the Midwest region.

--Most shops have installed Louisville as a 26-point favorite with the total in the 123-124 range. 5Dimes has issued the Aggies with 75/1 odds to win outright (risk $100 to win $7,500).

--Louisville owns a 13-7 spread record in 20 games as a double-digit favorite.

--Rick Pitino’s team rolled through the Big East Tournament with wins over Villanova (74-55), Notre Dame (69-57) and Syracuse (78-61). Trailing the Orange 35-22 at halftime of the finals, U of L poured it on in the second half to capture the victory as a 5.5-point ‘chalk.’ Montrezl Harrell enjoyed a monster game from off the bench, scoring 20 points and grabbing seven rebounds in 24 minutes of playing time. Peyton Siva added 11 points, eight assists and four steals.

--The Cardinals are led by junior guard Russ Smith, who averages 17.9 points per game. Siva dishes out a team-high 5.9 assists per contest, while Gorgui Dieng averages a double-double (10.3 PPG, 10.1 RPG) and provides a defensive presence in the paint.

--North Carolina A&T (20-16 SU, 7-1 ATS) advanced with Tuesday’s First Four win over Liberty by a 73-72 count as a three-point favorite in Dayton. The Aggies got a defensive stop as time expired. Jeremy Underwood exploded for a team-high 19 points, making all six of his shots from the field and 5-of-6 from the charity stripe. Bruce Beckford added 16 points and nine rebounds on 8-of-10 shooting from the floor.

--Totals have been an overall wash (3-3) for the Aggies in their six games with a total.

--Totals have also been an overall wash (14-14) for the Cardinals, but they have seen the ‘over’ hit in each of their last four games.

--Tip-off is scheduled for 6:50 p.m. Eastern on TBS.

**South Dakota St. vs. Michigan**

--This is a 4/13 matchup that will be played at The Palace of Auburn Hills (obviously favoring the fourth-seeded Wolverines). Most spots are listing Michigan (26-7 SU, 14-16-1 ATS) as an 11.5-point favorite with the total in the 138-139 range. The Jackrabbits are +550 on the money line (risk $100 to win $550).

--John Beilein’s team is mired in an abysmal 2-10 ATS slump, losing six of those games outright. Michigan dropped a 68-59 decision to Wisconsin as a two-point favorite in the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals. Trey Burke had 19 points and seven assists, but he made only 8-of-22 shots and committed four turnovers. Tim Hardaway Jr. shook off a turned ankle to score 14 points and grab nine boards despite getting only nine looks from the field.

--Burke and Hardaway lead the way for the Wolverines, but they get solid contributions from a trio of freshmen in Mitch McGary (57% FGs, 5.5 RPG), Glenn Robinson III (10.6 PPG) and Nik Stauskas (45% 3’s, 87% FTs).

--Since allowing a big lead to get away in a loss at Murray St. on BracketBuster Saturday, South Dakota St. (25-9 SU, 16-13 ATS) has won four in a row while going 3-1 versus the number. Scott Nagy’s squad beat North Dakota 73-67 as a one-point underdog in the Summit League Tournament finals. Nate Wolters scored a game-high 27 points while also pulling down six rebounds, dishing out six assists and making four steals. Jordan Dykstra added 18 points and seven boards.

--Wolters is one of the nation’s most underrated players, averaging 22.7 points, 5.8 assists and 5.6 rebounds per contest. Dykstra is also a terrific player. The six-foot, eight-inch power forward can bang in the lane and step out and stroke it from 3-point land. Dykstra, who averages 12.5 points and 7.9 rebounds per game, drains 3’s at a 43.0 percent clip. In his freshman and sophomore seasons, Dykstra made 51.5 and 47.3 percent of his treys, respectively.

--Michigan is 8-7-1 ATS in 16 games as a double-digit favorite.

--South Dakota St. owns a 7-3 spread record as an underdog this year, going 1-1 ATS as a double-digit ‘dog. The Jackrabbits won outright (70-65) at New Mexico as 15-point ‘dogs with Wolters producing 28 points, seven assists and five rebounds. They got drilled 88-64 at Minnesota but Wolters did not play due to a sprained ankle.

--The ‘over’ is 19-12 overall for Michigan.

--The ‘over’ is 10-9-1 overall for the Jackrabbits.

--CBS will have the telecast at 7:15 p.m. Eastern.

**Belmont vs. Arizona**

--This 6/11 matchup will be played in Salt Lake City. Most books are listing Arizona (25-7 SU, 14-16 ATS) as a 4.5-point favorite with a total of 140. Gamblers can take the Bruins to win outright for a +170 return (risk $100 to win $170).

--Arizona beat Colorado 79-69 as a 4.5-point favorite in the Pac-12 Tournament quarterfinals behind a team-high 18 points from Nick Johnson. In the semifinals, the Wildcats allowed a double-digit second-half advantage to get away in a 66-64 loss to UCLA.

--Belmont (26-6 SU, 14-15 ATS) played from behind nearly the entire game but still found a way to capture a 70-68 overtime win over Murray St. in the Ohio Valley Tournament finals. However, the Racers took the cash as 7.5-point underdogs. Kerron Johnson was the hero, hitting a jumper to force OT at the end of regulation before scoring the game-winner with 1.2 seconds remaining in the extra session. J.J. Mann produced a team-high 18 points and seven rebounds for the winners.

--Belmont has been an underdog three times this season, going 1-2 both SU and ATS. The Bruins won 70-62 at Stanford as seven-point ‘dogs, but they lost 75-65 at VCU and 89-60 at Kansas.

--Rick Byrd’s squad had its best wins over South Dakota St. (76-49), Middle Tennessee (64-49) and Ohio (81-62).

--Sean Miller’s team is mired in a 7-14 ATS slide in its last 21 games. The Wildcats have lost outright in five of their last 10 games after getting off to a 20-2 start.

--Arizona has been a single-digit favorite 15 times this year, posting a 6-9 spread record.

--Sportsbook.ag has Arizona with 50/1 odds to cut the nets down in Atlanta. Belmont's future number is 750/1 at the offshore website.

--The ‘under’ is 17-9-1 overall for Arizona.

--Although the ‘under’ has connected in four of its last six games, the ‘over’ is 13-9 overall for Belmont.

--Tip-off is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. Eastern on TNT.

**California vs. UNLV**

--This 5/12 matchup in San Jose is a rematch of a regular-season game played in Berkley, where UNLV captured a 76-75 win on Quintrell Thomas’s tip-in with 1.2 seconds remaining. However, California took the cash as a 1.5-point home underdog, while the 151 combined points slithered ‘over’ the 147-point total. Anthony Bennett led the way for the Runnin’ Rebels with 25 points and 13 rebounds. Allen Crabbe finished with a team-high 18 points for the Golden Bears.

--Most books are listing UNLV (25-9 SU, 13-20 ATS) as a three-point favorite with a total of 131. Bettors can take Cal to win outright for a +135 payout (risk $100 to win $135).

--California (20-11 SU, 12-16-1 ATS) carried a seven-game winning streak into its regular-season finale at home against arch-rival Stanford. But the Cardinal took it to the Bears in an 83-70 victory as a 5.5-point road underdog. Then at the Pac-12 Tournament, Mike Montgomery’s squad suffered a 79-69 loss to Utah in overtime as an eight-point ‘chalk.’ Justin Cobbs scored a game-high 26 points in the losing effort.

--UNLV has won seven of its last nine games, beating Air Force and Colorado St. by double-digit margins to make the Mountain West Conference Tournament finals on its home floor at the Thomas & Mack Center. But New Mexico won the MWC Tourney by collecting a 63-56 win as a 2.5-point underdog. Bryce Dejean-Jones had a team-high 19 points for the Rebels, while Bennett finished with 15 points and 11 rebounds.

--Bennett, the 6’8” 240-pound freshman, averages team-highs in scoring (16.1 PPG), rebounding (8.1 RPG) and field-goal percentage (53.8%).

--Crabbe and Cobbs are Cal’s leading scorers, averaging 18.7 and 15.5 PPG, respectively.

--California has been an underdog nine times this season, compiling a 3-6 record both SU and ATS.

--UNLV has been a single-digit favorite 14 times this year, going 6-8 ATS.

--Since 2003, UNLV has won four of five head-to-head meetings against Cal both SU and ATS.

--The ‘under’ is 16-9 overall for California.

--The ‘under’ is on a 7-2 run for the Rebels to improve to 17-9 overall.

--Tip-off is slated for 7:25 p.m. Eastern on TruTV.

**Missouri vs. Colorado State**

--For this 8/9 encounter, most books are listing Missouri (23-10 SU, 14-15 ATS) as a three-point favorite with a total of 142.5. Gamblers can back the Rams on the money line for a +140 return.

--Colorado St. (25-8 SU, 13-15-1 ATS) is mired in a 2-8-1 ATS slump in its last 11 games. The Rams lost a 75-65 decision to UNLV as five-point ‘dogs in the MWC Tourney semifinals. Colton Iverson was sensational in defeat, tallying 24 points and 16 boards.

--Colorado St. senior guard Dorian Green might not be at full speed as he continues to recover from a sprained ankle that kept him out of his team’s win over Fresno St. in the MWC Tourney quarterfinals. Green tried to play in the semifinal loss to UNLV, but he clearly wasn’t himself in 18 minutes of playing time, contributing just five points without any rebounds or assists. Green averages 12.8 points, 3.8 assists and 2.6 rebounds per game.

--Frank Haith’s team let a comfortable lead get away in the second half of a 64-62 loss to Ole Miss in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals last Friday night. The Tigers committed 16 turnovers and made only 7-of-13 free throws. Alex Oriakhi finished with 16 points, nine rebounds and a pair of blocked shots.

--If there’s a bright side to Missouri’s early exit from its first SEC Tourney in Nashville, the Tigers will have fresh legs this weekend at Rupp Arena in Lexington. They played at this venue on Feb. 23, losing 90-83 at Kentucky in overtime. Phil Pressey had 27 points, 10 assists and four steals in the loss to the ‘Cats.

--Missouri has been a single-digit ‘chalk’ nine times this year, posting a 5-4 spread record.

--Pressey is the catalyst for the Tigers and one of the nation’s most dynamic point guards. He averages team-highs in scoring (11.6 PPG), assists (7.1 APG) and steals (1.8 per game).

--Larry Eustachy’s squad is 3-4 ATS in seven games as an underdog.

--The ‘over’ has hit at a 6-0-1 clip in the Rams’ last seven games to improve to 11-9-1 overall.

--The ‘under’ has cashed in three consecutive games for Missouri, but the ‘over’ is 15-10 overall for the Tigers.

--The winner will face top-seeded Louisville unless North Carolina A&T becomes the first No. 16 seed to ever beat at No. 1 in NCAA Tournament history.

--TBS will provide television coverage 30 minutes after the conclusion of Louisville-North Carolina A&T.

**Akron vs. Virginia Commonwealth**

--Most books are listing No. 5 seed VCU (26-8 SU, 10-17 ATS) as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 134.5. Gamblers can take the Zips to win outright for a +320 return (risk $100 to win $320).

--Akron (26-6 SU, 14-12-1 ATS) got a tough draw by getting matched up with a VCU team that probably has the nation’s best full-court pressure defense. This is especially disconcerting for head coach Keith Dambrot because the Zips just lost their starting point guard and floor general Alex Abreu, who was suspended from the team less than two weeks ago following his arrest for multiple felonies stemming from a marijuana purchase from undercover officers. Abreu was averaging 10.3 points and 6.0 assists per game.

--Akron’s senior seven-foot center Zeke Marshall is fourth in the country in blocked shots, swatting away 3.7 shots per game. Marshall averages 13.0 points and 7.1 rebounds per contests. He is also fourth in the nation in field-goal percentage (65.4%).

--Shaka Smart’s squad is in the midst of a 2-6 ATS slump. When I backed the Rams as 7.5-point favorites vs. St. Joseph’s in the A-10 Tournament quarterfinals last Friday, they won by an 82-79 count but failed to cover after leading by 10 at halftime and by 16 with less than five minutes remaining.

--After beating St. Joe’s, VCU knocked off UMass 71-62 as an 8.5-point favorite to advance to the A-10 Tourney finals. The Rams came up short against Saint Louis, which won 62-56 as a 1.5-point ‘chalk.’

--VCU has a 4-8 spread record in 12 games as a single-digit favorite. Meanwhile, Akron has a 2-2-1 spread record with a pair of outright victories in five underdog spots. The Zips lost 69-65 to Oklahoma St. as four-point ‘dogs in the game that pushed.

--When these schools squared off last season, VCU won a 76-75 decision at Akron in overtime. However, the Zips hooked up their backers as 1.5-point home underdogs. The 151 combined points went ‘over’ the 140.5-point total thanks to OT (11 combined points scored in the extra session).

--The ‘under’ has cashed in four straight games for Akron to improve to 16-6-1 overall.

--Totals have been an overall wash (13-13) for VCU, but the ‘over’ has hit at a 7-3 pace in its last 10 games.

--This 5/12 matchup on CBS will tip 30 minutes after the conclusion of Michigan-South Dakota St. The winner gets the SDS-Michigan winner on Saturday.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 03-21-13 03:51 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

**Harvard vs. New Mexico**

--After missing the NCAA Tournament every season since 1946, Harvard (19-9 SU, 13-12-1 ATS) is back in the Big Dance for a second straight year. This time around, the Crimson hopes to get its first win in school history. They lost 79-70 to Vandy last year in ‘The Brain Brawl.’

--Most books are listing third-seeded New Mexico (29-5 SU, 19-12-2 ATS) as an 11-point favorite with the total in the 125-126 range. Bettors can take the Crimson on the money line for a +550 payout (risk $100 to win $550).

--Steve Alford’s squad lost its regular-season finale 89-88 at Air Force as a four-point road favorite. The Lobos responded nicely by winning three in a row both SU and ATS in Las Vegas to win the MWC Tourney. They got a 21-point effort from Tony Snell in the win over UNLV to garner the league’s automatic bid.

--UNM has a 4-5-1 spread record in 10 double-digit ‘chalk’ situations this season.

--The Lobos are led by junior guard Kendall Williams, who averages 13.5 points, 4.9 assists and 3.6 rebounds per game. Snell averages 12.6 PPG and makes 84.3 percent of his free throws.

--Harvard won its last two regular-season games to wrap up the Ivy League title, but it has dropped three in a row ATS. The Crimson was able to recover from the loss of its two best players (Kyle Casey and Brandyn Curry) due to suspensions in November. Wesley Saunders, a sophomore, was the main reason why. Saunders led his team in scoring (16.5 PPG), field-goal percentage (53.8%) and steals (1.9 per game).

--Tommy Amaker’s team has thrived as an underdog this year, compiling a 7-2 spread record. Even better, Harvard is 4-0 ATS as a double-digit ‘dog. The Crimson covered the number as a double-digit ‘dog in a 67-64 loss at UMass, a 60-50 loss at Memphis, a 70-69 loss at Saint Mary’s and a 67-62 win at California.

--The ‘under’ is 17-10-2 overall for UNM.

--Harvard has watched the ‘under’ go 6-2 in its last eight games to improve to 11-10 overall.

--This game will tip from Salt Lake City 30 minutes after the end of Arizona-Belmont.

**Montana vs. Syracuse**

--After playing four games in four days at the Big East Tournament last week, the last thing Jim Boeheim wanted was to play on Thursday and do so out West (San Jose) against a well-rest team from out West. Furthermore, if the ‘Cuse advances, it will face either Cal or UNLV, both of whom hail from the West coast.

--Most books are listing Syracuse (26-9 SU, 17-14 ATS) as a 12.5-point favorite with a total of 127.5. The Grizzlies are +700 on the money line.

--Montana (25-6 SU, 17-11-1 ATS) has won six in a row and has taken the cash in each of its last seven games. The lone loss over this span was a 93-87 setback at Davidson in overtime. The Grizzlies took the cash as 14-point ‘dogs in the loss to Bob McKillop’s bunch.

--Montana has been without one of its best players for five consecutive games. Mathias Ward, who averages 14.8 points and 3.9 rebounds per game, remains ‘out’ with a broken foot.

--Wayne Tinkle’s team has been an underdog six times, going 3-3 ATS. The Grizzlies are 1-1 ATS in a pair of double-digit ‘dog spots. They got blasted 85-60 at BYU but took the money in the aforementioned defeat at Davidson.

--Syracuse owns a 9-5 spread record in 14 games as a double-digit favorite.

--The ‘under’ is 15-14 overall for the ‘Cuse, but the ‘over’ has cashed in three of its last four outings.

--The ‘over’ is 12-10 overall for Montana even though the ‘under’ has connected in three of its last four contests.

--The winner will get the UNLV-Cal winner.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 03-21-13 03:52 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

Thursday's Early Action

March 20, 2013

The 2013 Men’s NCAA Basketball Tournament officially got underway this past Tuesday from Dayton with two games in the First Four Round, but starting this Thursday afternoon things really heat up with the first eight games in the Round of 64. To help get you ready for all the action the following is a brief betting preview of all eight games with lines provided by 5Dimes.

Midwest Regional – The Palace, Detroit (CBS, 12:15 p.m. ET)

No. 14 Valparaiso Crusaders (26-7) vs. No. 3 Michigan State Spartans (25-8)
Pointspread: Michigan State -10 ½
Total: 126 ½

The Crusaders earned its spot in the Midwest Region by winning the Horizon League Tournament after already claiming the regular season title. They went 9-1 straight-up in their last 10 games but were just 5-4-1 against the spread. The total stayed UNDER in four of their last five games. Valpo is averaging 71.7 points a game while shooting 48.9 percent from the field.

Michigan State bowed out of the Big Ten Tournament with a 61-58 loss to Ohio State as a 1 ½-point underdog. It had won six of its previous nine games while going 4-4-1 ATS. The Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a SU loss. Look for Keith Appling and Gary Harris to lead the way after combining for an average of 26.5 points a game this season.

East Regional – Rupp Arena, Lexington (tru TV, 12:40 p.m. ET)

No. 11 Bucknell Bison (28-5) vs. No. 6 Butler Bulldogs (26-8)
Pointspread: Butler 3 ½
Total: 122

Bucknell claimed the Patriot League title to punch its ticket to the Big Dance. It comes into this matchup riding a seven-game winning streak but it has failed to cover in its last three games with a posted line. The Bison are averaging 67.3 points while holding their opponents to just 57.7 points a game.

The Bulldogs are back in the NCAA Tournament as an at-large entry after posting an 11-5 SU record in their first season in the Atlantic 10. They went just 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS in their last seven games and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last six. The top scorer for Butler this season has been Rotnei Clarke with an average of 16.7 points a game.

West Regional – EnergySolutions Arena, Salt Lake City (TBS, 1:40 p.m. ET)

No. 9 Wichita State Shockers (26-8) vs. No. 8 Pittsburgh Panthers (24-8)
Pointspread: Pittsburgh -4 ½
Total: 118 ½

The Shockers earned their at-large bid in the Midwest Region with a 12-6 record in the Missouri Valley Conference but come in with just two SU wins in their last five games and a 1-4 record ATS. The total has gone OVER in four of their last six games. To advance, Wichita State will need a big game from Cleanthony Early and Carl Hall, who combined for 26.4 points and 12.3 rebounds this year.

Pittsburgh finished fourth in the Big East regular season standings at 12-6 and came up short in the tournament with a 62-59 loss to Syracuse as a 2 ½-point favorite. The Panthers are just 5-5 ATS in their last 10 games and the total has gone OVER in their last three. They are averaging 69.6 points a game while shooting a very respectable 47.5 percent from the field.

Midwest Regional – HP Pavilion, San Jose (TNT, 2:10 p.m. ET)

No.13 New Mexico State Aggies (24-10) vs. No.4 Saint Louis Billikens (27-6)
Pointspread: St. Louis -9
Total: 122

New Mexico State rolled through the Western Athletic Tournament to gain its automatic bid. It went 8-2 SU down the stretch but failed to cover in five of the 10 games. The total stayed UNDER in its last three games. Daniel Mullings led the Aggies in scoring with 14 points a game with Bandja Sy chipping-in 11.7 points and a team-high 7.3 rebounds.

The Billikens are 15-1 SU in their last 16 games and have been extremely profitable to wager on during this run with an identical record ATS. They rolled through the A 10 Tournament after winning the regular season title with a conference record of 13-3. St. Louis has five players averaging over nine points a game led by Dwayne Evans’ team-high 13.7 points.

Midwest Regional – The Palace, Detroit (CBS, 2:45 p.m. ET)

No. 11 St. Mary’s Gaels (28-6) vs. No. 6 Memphis Tigers (30-4)
Pointspread: St. Mary's -1
Total: 138

The Gaels already got their feet wet in tournament action with a solid 67-54 victory over Middle Tennessee as 2 ½-point favorites in Tuesday night’s First Four Round. They went 16-3 SU in the West Coast Conference this season with all three losses coming to Gonzaga. The player to watch on this team is Matthew Dellavedova, who is averaging 15.8 points game.

Memphis cruised through its Conference USA schedule this season with a perfect 16-0 SU record, but it is just 5-4 ATS in its last nine games. The total has gone OVER in its last four outings. The Tigers have been a tough out all year long behind an offense that is averaging 75.9 points a game while shooting 47.9 percent from the field

West Regional – Rupp Arena, Lexington (tru TV, 3:10 p.m. ET)

No. 14 Davidson College Wildcats (26-7) vs. No. 3 Marquette Golden Eagles (23-8)
Pointspread: Marquette 3 ½
Total: 133

Davidson may be a 14 seed but it brings a 17-game winning streak into this matchup that culminated in a Southern Conference Championship. The Wildcats are 3-1 ATS in their last four games and the total has stayed UNDER in three of their last five games. They are averaging 73.7 points led by Jake Cohen and De’Mon Brooks, who combine for 28.6 points a game.

The Golden Eagles bowed out of the Big East Tournament with a 73-65 loss to Notre Dame as three-point favorites. They are 4-2 SU in their last five games but just 2-4 ATS and the total has gone OVER in four of the games. Marquette is 18-7-1 ATS in its last 26 games following a SU loss but only 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 non-conference games.

West Regional – EnergySolutions Arena, Salt Lake City (TBS, 4:10 p.m. ET)

No. 16 Southern University A&M Jaguars (23-9) vs. No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs (31-2)
Pointspread: Gonzaga -21 ½
Total: 126 ½

By virtue of winning the Southwestern Athletic Tournament crown, the Jaguars earned the right to try and make NCAA Tournament history by taking out a top seed. They come in with seven SU wins in their last eight games and are averaging 67.7 points a game while holding opponents to 58.4 points on the other end of the court.

The pressure will be on the Bulldogs as not only a one seed in this tournament but as the No.1 ranked team in the country. They have been opened at 10/1 to keep their current 14-game winning streak going for six more games all the way to a national title. Gonzaga has not been as reliable ATS with a 5-3-1 record in its last nine games. The total has stayed UNDER in eight of those games.

Midwest Regional – HP Pavilion, San Jose (TNT, 4:40 p.m.)

No. 12 Oregon Ducks (26-8) vs. No. 15 Oklahoma State Cowboys (24-8)
Pointspread: Oklahoma State -3
Total: 134 ½

Oregon claimed this season’s Pac-12 Tournament title with a 78-69 win over UCLA as a 1 1/2-point favorite. While it covered in that game, it went just 2-5-1 ATS in its previous eight games and the total has gone OVER in six of its last nine games. The Ducks have a trio of solid scorers in EJ Singler, Carlos Emory and Damyean Dotson, who are each averaging around 11 points a game.

The Cowboys came up short in their bid to win the Big 12 Tournament with a 68-57 loss to Kansas State as 1 ½-point underdogs. They went 5-2 SU in their last seven games and 3-3-1 ATS. The total has gone OVER in four of their last five games. Oklahoma State has four players scoring in double figures led by Marcus Smart (15.4 points) and Markel Brown (15.4 points).




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 03-21-13 03:56 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

Big Dance Breakdown

March 20, 2013

By Selection Sunday standards, this season's rendition was a bit tame. No real surprises in the mix; few complaints from the masses. For the most part (with a possible exception or two that we'll note in a moment), the Committee seems to have gotten the 68-team field right for once.

Still, the perception that the process is anything other than a subjective act continues to be forwarded by the Selection Committee, when nothing could be further from the truth. Among the TV talking heads on Sunday, only ESPN's Jay Bilas was inclined to question the Committee's process because of what appeared to be some inconsistencies both in seeding and in eventual criteria for separating teams at the cut line.

For us, we conceded long ago that the Big Ten was going to be given a wide berth by the Committee, though upon closer inspection we wonder why. Moreover, it was as if the Committee simply borrowed the talking points from sorts such as Andy Katz and Joe Lunardi about the SEC being in such a down cycle this season. Regarding the latter, however, we detected some inconsistencies with the Committee and, for that matter, the majority of media talking heads who have similarly downgraded the SEC this season.

We have long believed that the selection process, while tedious, is also mostly overblown by the media and the Committee itself, which guards the secrets of its 10-man enclave in Indianapolis as if it is dealing with national security. There are a handful of former national defense secretaries like Bob Gates and Leon Panetta who are looking for things to do these days; perhaps they should be included into next year's Big Dance Selection Committee mix to maintain that cloud of secrecy.

For us, we have to wonder about the sharpness of the Committee when it violated one of its supposed tenets and slotted regular-season rematches (supposedly a no-no) at the top of a sub-regional round. The reaction of the CBS crew (Doug Gottlieb in particular) confirmed that oversight when UNLV and Cal were unveiled as a Thursday matchup in San Jose. The Runnin' Rebels and Golden Bears played a regular-season game back on December 9 at Berkeley, and their rematch was one of the questions addressed to Committee Chairman Mike Bobinski, who fumbled around for a proper answer.

Apparently, according to Bobinski, the Committee had boxed itself in and had no alternative but to put UNLV and Cal against one another. Which we find curious, as with a simple paper, pencil, and notes, we have been able to seed a projected NCAA field for the last two months while avoiding rematches at the top of sub-regional action. All it takes is a pencil with an eraser to move some of the teams around to prevent what is supposedly a Big Dance no-no.

The wide space granted to the Big Ten might also be a bit misplaced. Especially when referring to Minnesota, whose 5-11 record over its last 16 games was never mentioned once by one of the talking heads that instead seemed to be comparing the Gophers to Bill Russell's old USF title teams when discussing what a fundamental mismatch it would be for UCLA when facing the "mighty" Golden Gophers in the first round.

Upon further inspection of information from the first half of the season, we acknowledge some of the Big Ten's impressive performances, but it's not an airtight case for Big Ten superiority. Wisconsin, after all, lost almost every challenging non-league game (vs. Florida, Creighton, Virginia, and Marquette...three of those losses by double-digit margins) it played. Ohio State's non-conference victims list is dotted with Rhode Island, Savannah State, Northern Kentucky, and Winthrop; the Buckeyes lost when stepping up to face Duke and Kansas. No shame there, but similar criteria when used to evaluate teams from other leagues was apparently overlooked.

Indiana had two significant non-conference games; it beat Georgeotwn in OT in Brooklyn before the Hoyas hit stride, and lost vs. Butler. The win over North Carolina came long before the Tar Heels hit stride later in the season. Michigan State beat Kansas and several lesser entities but lost vs. UConn and Miami-Florida. While Gonzaga was disparaged by several talking heads for its loss to Illinois and a so-so non-league slate (which was not true, as the Zags went 5-0 vs. the Big 12), Michigan got lots of credit for its win over Kansas State and a pair of other successes vs. Pitt and N.C. State teams that were no better than the eighth-line teams in Dance seeding. Iowa beat Iowa State, but was whipped by Wichita State and Virginia Tech. Illinois won at Maui and dealt Gonzaga one of its two regular-season defeats, but was also routed in St. Louis by SEC rep Missouri.

Speaking of the SEC, we have to wonder why the Committee and the talking heads seemed to absolve Florida of its association with the league and rewarded the Gators a three-seed in the Dance while downgrading the rest of the loop. Florida lost every game it played that was decided by single digits and dropped five SEC games played away from Gainesville, including the conference tourney finale in Nashville vs. Ole Miss. If the SEC was so terrible, why did the Gators keep losing league games, as did supposedly highly-regarded Missouri, which lost seven of nine road games in the league as well as a pre-conference date at UCLA? But, for some reason, the Committee made exceptions for Florida and, to a lesser extent Missouri, as did the talking heads by refusing to clump those two with the rest of the loop.

There were also inconsistencies (as ESPN's Bilas noted) about the inclusion of Middle Tennessee as one of the last at-large teams (or, apparently, the last at-large, as Committee Chair Bobinski seemed to indicate) at the expense of a Tennessee, which was hot down the stretch. Bobinski again stumbled for answers other than noting that MTSU had beaten the same Ole Miss team that had toppled the Vols twice. The Blue Raiders, however, lost other challenging non-league assignments vs. Florida, Akron, and Belmont.

We're on record as having no problem with mid-majors like the Sun Belt catching an occasional break from the Selection Committee. And Tennessee could have probably moved to the safe side of the cut line had it beaten Alabama in the quarters of the SEC tourney last week in Nashville. Still, we might have picked the Vols over MTSU.

Elsewhere, there were questions related to seeding, especially the apparent downgrading of the Pac-12, where Oregon and Cal both received lower-than-expected 12 seeds (although Bobinski noted that each was originally an 11 seed, and was moved down a line in the procedural "bump" the Committee reserves in order to balance the field). Still, we believe this is really much ado about nothing, as 12 seeds usually have a better deal than eight or nine-seeds that are almost assuredly going to have to face regional number one seeds in the round of 32, as opposed to a more-beatable 4 or 5 seed. Although a downgraded seeding can dent the psyche of a team, in fact it often acts as a blessing in disguise. The fact that a 12 seed has advanced to the Sweet 16 in all but three years since the modern seeding of the tourney began in 1985 (a much better percentage than eight of nine seeds) is a confirmation that sometimes it can be better to be a bit downgraded at the outset.

We also wonder about all of the discussion regarding the top regional seeds, which seems like a manufactured storyline to us. Practically speaking, there is effectively no difference between a one and a two seed, except that a handful of 2's have been knocked off by 15 seeds in the last three decades. Whether Gonzaga is a one or two seed is going to have little impact on the proceedings save for being a nice feather in the Zags' hat.

The bottom line? The Selection Committee is comprised of humans, and they make the decisions, not the machines. We just wish that more members would confirm the selection process as a subjective exercise. And we'd also suggest a sequester of the Committee members from exposure to the TV talking heads who so seem to influence their thought process.

ANY GEORGE MASONS OR BUTLERS IN THE HOUSE?

The unexpected runs of mid-majors such as George Mason and Butler (and Virginia Commonwealth in 2011) to the Final Four in recent years have prompted us to offer a "mid-major alert" each of the past few seasons, highlighting teams to watch that could emerge and deliver a similar run in the Dance. Following are a handful of those sides that we would watch closely...

Davidson (SUR 26-7; seeded 14th in East)...Among all of the mid-major entries, we suspect the Wildcats might be the most complete and dangerous team. All starters returned from last year's side that made it to the Dance and gave Louisville a fight in the sub-regionals. Well-balanced, with six players who led the team in scoring in at least one game this season. A unique weapon in Ryan Kelly-like, Euro-style 6-10 F Jake Cohen (14.8 ppg), and a matchup nightmare in 6-7 swingman De'Mon Brooks (13.8 ppg), who can post-up smaller defenders. Team FT shooting (80.1%) is the best in the nation; G Nik Cochran (94.1%) tops all. Underrated, vet HC Bob McKillop has taken several teams to the Dance that did not include Stephen Curry. Pushed New Mexico to the limit in a challenging non-conference slate that also included Gonzaga and Duke. Junior-senior dominated roster that returned eight of nine top contributors from last season...the sort of team makeup that suggests it can at least be a dangerous underdog.

Belmont (SUR 26-6; seeded 11th in West)...No longer a well-kept secret, vet HC Rick Byrd's Bruins make a return visit return to the Dance after moving from the Atlantic Sun to the Ohio Valley. Electric backcourt featuring senior G's Ian Clark (18.3 ppg & 54.3% FGs) and Kerron Johnson (13.5 ppg). But balanced beyond the backcourt, with four starters scoring in double figures. Whipped South Dakota State at Nashville in December; other notable wins over Stanford and Ohio. Not big (no starter taller than 6'7) and probably a bit too perimeter-oriented to make a Mason, Butler, or VCU-type run, but Byrd is due for a win in the Dance after losing in five previous tries. Arizona is forewarned for the Thursday game in Salt Lake City.

South Dakota State (SUR 25-9; seeded 13th in South)...Back for another try after competitive loss vs. Baylor in the sub-regionals last year. Four starters returned from that tourney team, led by hot-shooting G Nate Wolters (22.7 ppg), who exploded for 53 points in a Feb. 7 win at IPFW. Wolters is more than a shooter, also a drive-and-kick penetrator who can count upon a squadron of dagger-throwing teammates including F Jordan Dykstra and G Chad White, both 43% beyond the arc. Efficient on the attack end by limiting TO's, this is still a perimeter-oriented squad that has some defensive liabilities. But could be a very tricky matchup nonetheless, especially vs. a team that is lax in defending the arc. Famously won at The Pit vs. New Mexico in December after an arduous 1200-mile bus ride from Nashville (after the Jackrabbits lost to Belmont) necessitated by weather conditions that grounded air travel. Rumor has it the team made at least one Waffle House stop en route to Albuquerque.

Bucknell (SUR 28-5; seeded 11th in East)...The alma mater of CBS head honcho Les Moonves, the Bison could be the latest in a string of Patriot League reps that have made some noise in recent Dances, including a year ago when Lehigh famously dumped Duke in the sub-regional. The Bison returned four starters from last year's NIT team, including 6-11 sr. C Mike Muscala, one of the best-kept secrets in the country after scoring 19.1 ppg and hauling in 11 rpg this season. Which means that foes are going to have to vigorously defend the post vs. Bucknell. The "outside" part of the inside-outside balance is courtesy of capable Gs 6-5 jr. Cameron Ayers (12.7 ppg) and sr. Bryson Johnson (11.5 ppg), both proficient shooting 3s. Notable wins this season include Purdue, La Salle, and New Mexico State.

Northwestern State (SUR 23-8, seeded 14th in South)...KO'd favored Stephen F. Austin in the Southland Tourney finale, although that was the Demons' second win in three tries vs. the Lumberjacks. Led the nation in scoring offense for much of the season thanks a relentless lineup that goes 10-deep; top scorer F DeQuan Hicks (14.2 ppg) usually comes off the bench. Defense a bit suspect, as we noted in its BracketBuster loss at Niagara, but NW can prove an awkward matchup due to its go-go style for HC Mike McConathy. Beat La Tech in early December and was a close loser at Oklahoma and LSU.

Montana (SUR 25-6, seeded 13th in East)...The Grizzlies were functioning minus top scorer F Mathias Ward (14.8 ppg; foot injury) for the last month of the season, this after high-scoring G Will Cherry (14.5 ppg) missed the first month of the campaign with his own broken foot. Cherry also missed some late-season action with another foot injury, but was back in the lineup for the Big Sky Tourney and win in the finale vs. dangerous Weber State. With Cherry and Ward absent for long stretches this season, F Kareem Jamar (14.2 ppg) stepped into the breach and was named Big Sky MVP. Lost four games early with Cherry out of starting lineup due to injury, but sent a warning shot in the BracketBuster at Davidson, pushing the Wildcats into OT despite being minus Ward and with Cherry re-injuring his foot in the 2nd half. Repeat Big Dance qualifier after losing to Wisconsin in sub-regional action last season.

Let's hope we're still talking about one or more of these teams next week for the Sweet 16; the tourney is always a bit more memorable when at last one Cinderella side emerges!




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 03-21-13 03:58 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack

According to Forbes Magazine, the six most valuable college basketball programs:

6) Indiana Hoosiers are worth $21.8M; LY’s profit, $14.4M.

5) Ohio State Buckeyes are worth $23.1M; LY’s profit, $13.6M.

4) Kentucky Wildcats are worth $32.1M; LY’s profit, $19.9M.

3) North Carolina Tar Heels are worth $32.8M; LY’s profit, $19.9M.

2) Kansas Jayhawks are worth $32.9M; LY’s profit, $19.9M.

1) Louisville Cardinals are worth $38.5M; LY’s profit: $24.5M.


*****

Armadillo: Thursday's List of 13: Welcome to the best four days of the year.......

13) Why do I get the idea that for the next four days, unless something really big happens, Joe Biden is running the country?

12) So when Robert Morris beat Kentucky at home Tuesday, it set off one of the better court rushes of alltime; ESPN interviewed coach Andy Toole on the court about what the win means. Would’ve been awesome if he had just looked into the camera and said truthfully,

“It means I’m getting a better job!!!”

This is the unusual case of a team being better off in the NIT than the NCAA’s, they got lot of extra publicity out of beating Kentucky.

11) Robert Morris’ win will set non-conference scheduling back, as the big boys will turn their nose up at true road games, even moreso than they do now. When was the last time Kentucky played a true road game in a gym that seats less than 5,000 people?

10) Since 1993, Louisville is 3-11-1 vs spread in its first tournament game; this is just their second #1 seed- they beat Morehead State by 20 (-20.5) in first round, the other time they were a 1-seed.

9) So couple years after the Carmelo Anthony trade, did one side get the better of it? Knicks are 39-26, but have oldest roster in league, they’ve lost four of last five games and are looking into signing Hawkeye Pierce to take care of their MASH unit full of injured players.

Denver is 47-22, has won 13 games in a row and appears to be a legit threat in the West. I’m thinking Denver got the better of the deal.

Feel bad for Mike Woodson though; he’s a very good coach saddled with an old team that ain’t getting healthier as the playoffs approach.

8) There are 21 Division I basketball schools in Texas, none made the tournament, first time Lone Star State got blanked since 1977, when it was a 32-team tourney. Damn, I was in high school back then.

7) Youngstown State made an astounding 18-35 behind arc in its 99-87 win over defenseless Oakland Tuesday. LMU made 21 treys vs Michigan in second round of the 1990 tournament, and from what I can tell, that is the most treys any team has made in a D-I college game.

6) Hockey legend Bobby Orr, who was Wayne Gretzky before Gretzky, but as a defenseman, turned 65 this week. Orr was one of my first childhood heroes; boy could he skate!!!

Knee injuries shortened his career. I met him in 1986; very nice man, but he could hardly walk, his knees were so bad. Orr turned the Bruins around almost single-handedly; he is still revered in Boston.

5) An umpire broke his hand in a spring training game, so one of the other umps went in to put his chest protector on to take his place behind the plate. Veteran ump Tim McClelland, in order to keep the exhibition game moving, called balls/strikes from behind the pitcher for four batters, until the other ump was ready to go. That’s what they do in Little League!!!

4) NFL might play the Pro Bowl by having captains choose up sides, like we did on the playgrounds as kids. Whatever, I’m still not watching. Choosing up sides would be intriguing for the NBA All-Star Game, though.

3) Listening to Bill Walton working SF Austin-Stanford NIT game Tuesday, it occurred to me that I’d love to be as positive about everything as he is. Not everyone can be that way, but I enjoy his TV work very much.

2) Stephen F Austin University is in Nacogdoches, TX; they lost Southland finals to Northwestern State, which is in Natchitoches, LA.

Say that three times fast.

1) The next four days are among my most favorite of the year; I plan on doing nothing but watching basketball, eating and talking to friends about basketball and eating. Enjoy the tournament!!!!




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 03-21-13 04:01 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

NCAAB
Dunkel

Akron vs. VCU
The Rams look to build on their 11-1 ATS record in their last 12 NCAA tournament games. VCU is the pick (-7 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Rams favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: VCU (-7 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

THURSDAY, MARCH 21

Game 707-708: North Carolina A&T vs. Louisville (6:50 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina A&T 50.898; Louisville 78.019
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 27; 119
Vegas Line: Louisville by 25 1/2; 123 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisville (-25 1/2); Under

Game 709-710: Missouri vs. Colorado State (9:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 67.227; Colorado State 66.212
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 1; 145
Vegas Line: Missouri by 3; 142 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (+3); Over

Game 711-712: Davidson vs. Marquette (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 64.840; Marquette 66.761
Dunkel Line: Marquette by 2; 128
Vegas Line: Marquette by 3 1/2; 133
Dunkel Pick: Davidson (+3 1/2); Under

Game 713-714: Bucknell vs. Butler (12:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bucknell 60.135; Butler 62.042
Dunkel Line: Butler by 2; 127
Vegas Line: Butler by 3 1/2; 122
Dunkel Pick: Bucknell (+3 1/2); Over

Game 715-716: Valparaiso vs. Michigan State (12:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 61.969; Michigan State 73.335
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 11 1/2; 129
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 10 1/2; 126
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-10 1/2); Over

Game 717-718: St. Mary's vs. Memphis (2:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's 69.277; Memphis 67.195
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's by 2; 134
Vegas Line: Memphis by 1; 138
Dunkel Pick: St. Mary's (+1); Under

Game 719-720: Akron vs. VCU (9:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 58.834; VCU 68.177
Dunkel Line: VCU by 9 1/2; 130
Vegas Line: VCU by 7 1/2; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick: VCU (-7 1/2); Under

Game 721-722: South Dakota State vs. Michigan (7:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Dakota State 59.139; Michigan 68.777
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 9 1/2; 144
Vegas Line: Michigan by 11 1/2; 139
Dunkel Pick: South Dakota State (+11 1/2); Over

Game 723-724: Southern vs. Gonzaga (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Southern 52.744; Gonzaga 72.285
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 19 1/2; 121
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 22 1/2; 126 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern (+22 1/2); Under

Game 725-726: Wichita State vs. Pittsburgh (1:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wichita State 65.119; Pittsburgh 67.699
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2 1/2; 122
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 4 1/2; 118 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wichita State (+4 1/2); Over

Game 727-728: Harvard vs. New Mexico (9:50 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 56.144; New Mexico 66.199
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 10; 130
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 11 1/2; 125
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (+11 1/2); Over

Game 729-730: Belmont vs. Arizona (7:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Belmont 62.630; Arizona 65.486
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 3; 136
Vegas Line: Arizona by 4 1/2; 140
Dunkel Pick: Belmont (+4 1/2); Under

Game 731-732: Oregon vs. Oklahoma State (4:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 65.241; Oklahoma State 66.443
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma State by 1; 138
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 3 1/2; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (+3 1/2); Over

Game 733-734: New Mexico State vs. St. Louis (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 61.954; St. Louis 72.249
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 10 1/2; 118
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 8 1/2; 122
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-8 1/2); Under

Game 735-736: California vs. UNLV (7:27 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: California 62.529; UNLV 67.049
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: UNLV by 2 1/2; 131
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (-2 1/2)

Game 737-738: Montana vs. Syracuse (9:57 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 56.818; Syracuse 68.500
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 11 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Syracuse by 13; 127 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montana (+13); Over

Game 739-740: Denver at Maryland (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 64.696; Maryland 71.146
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 6 1/2; 124
Vegas Line: Maryland by 3 1/2; 128
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-3 1/2); Under
Reply With Quote




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 03-21-13 04:03 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Thursday, March 21

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MISSOURI (23 - 10) vs. COLORADO ST (25 - 8) - 3/21/2013, 9:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MISSOURI is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
COLORADO ST is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
COLORADO ST is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


DAVIDSON (26 - 7) vs. MARQUETTE (23 - 8) - 3/21/2013, 3:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MARQUETTE is 71-48 ATS (+18.2 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 since 1997.
MARQUETTE is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
MARQUETTE is 187-144 ATS (+28.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
MARQUETTE is 111-83 ATS (+19.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
MARQUETTE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
MARQUETTE is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.
DAVIDSON is 67-38 ATS (+25.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BUCKNELL (28 - 5) vs. BUTLER (26 - 8) - 3/21/2013, 12:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUTLER is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons.
BUTLER is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in road games in March games over the last 3 seasons.
BUTLER is 17-3 ATS (+13.7 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 3 seasons.
BUTLER is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
BUTLER is 18-5 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
BUTLER is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in first round tournament games since 1997.
BUTLER is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
BUTLER is 40-25 ATS (+12.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
BUTLER is 60-40 ATS (+16.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
BUTLER is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


VALPARAISO (26 - 7) vs. MICHIGAN ST (25 - 8) - 3/21/2013, 12:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 25-14 ATS (+9.6 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
VALPARAISO is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) after a conference game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


AKRON (26 - 6) vs. VA COMMONWEALTH (26 - 8) - 3/21/2013, 9:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games in first round tournament games since 1997.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in a NCAA tournament games since 1997.
AKRON is 33-22 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
AKRON is 33-22 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
AKRON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all neutral court games over the last 3 seasons.
AKRON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing on a neutral court over the last 3 seasons.
AKRON is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all tournament games over the last 3 seasons.
AKRON is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
AKRON is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 this season.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) after a conference game this season.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
VA COMMONWEALTH is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
AKRON is 1-0 against the spread versus VA COMMONWEALTH over the last 3 seasons
VA COMMONWEALTH is 1-0 straight up against AKRON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


S DAKOTA ST (25 - 9) vs. MICHIGAN (26 - 7) - 3/21/2013, 7:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN is 54-38 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 54-38 ATS (+12.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 45-30 ATS (+12.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
S DAKOTA ST is 34-20 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
S DAKOTA ST is 34-20 ATS (+12.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
S DAKOTA ST is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when the total is 130 to 139.5 over the last 3 seasons.
S DAKOTA ST is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
S DAKOTA ST is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


SOUTHERN U (23 - 9) vs. GONZAGA (31 - 2) - 3/21/2013, 4:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GONZAGA is 57-37 ATS (+16.3 Units) in road games in all tournament games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
GONZAGA is 1-0 straight up against SOUTHERN U over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


WICHITA ST (26 - 8) vs. PITTSBURGH (24 - 8) - 3/21/2013, 1:40 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


HARVARD (19 - 9) vs. NEW MEXICO (29 - 5) - 3/21/2013, 9:50 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HARVARD is 10-26 ATS (-18.6 Units) in March games since 1997.
HARVARD is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when playing with 7 or more days rest since 1997.
HARVARD is 85-117 ATS (-43.7 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
NEW MEXICO is 43-20 ATS (+21.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 43-20 ATS (+21.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) when the total is 120 to 129.5 since 1997.
NEW MEXICO is 38-15 ATS (+21.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 12-5 ATS (+6.5 Units) after a conference game this season.
NEW MEXICO is 21-6 ATS (+14.4 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 26-8 ATS (+17.2 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 16-8 ATS (+7.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NEW MEXICO is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
NEW MEXICO is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game this season.
HARVARD is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


BELMONT (26 - 6) vs. ARIZONA (25 - 7) - 3/21/2013, 7:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BELMONT is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when the total is 140 to 149.5 over the last 2 seasons.
BELMONT is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons.
BELMONT is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in all tournament games over the last 2 seasons.
BELMONT is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ARIZONA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


OREGON (26 - 8) vs. OKLAHOMA ST (24 - 8) - 3/21/2013, 4:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OREGON is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) after a conference game this season.
OKLAHOMA ST is 160-125 ATS (+22.5 Units) as a favorite since 1997.
OKLAHOMA ST is 92-61 ATS (+24.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1997.
OKLAHOMA ST is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in first round tournament games since 1997.
OKLAHOMA ST is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NEW MEXICO ST (24 - 10) vs. SAINT LOUIS (27 - 6) - 3/21/2013, 2:10 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAINT LOUIS is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games this season.
SAINT LOUIS is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
SAINT LOUIS is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) as a favorite this season.
SAINT LOUIS is 15-3 ATS (+11.7 Units) after a conference game this season.
SAINT LOUIS is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.
SAINT LOUIS is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) after allowing 60 points or less this season.
SAINT LOUIS is 14-6 ATS (+7.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SAINT LOUIS is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season.
SAINT LOUIS is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW MEXICO ST is 33-16 ATS (+15.4 Units) in March games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------


CALIFORNIA (20 - 11) vs. UNLV (25 - 9) - 3/21/2013, 7:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CALIFORNIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing with 5 or 6 days rest this season.
CALIFORNIA is 94-68 ATS (+19.2 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
CALIFORNIA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games this season.
UNLV is 26-39 ATS (-16.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
UNLV is 26-39 ATS (-16.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
UNLV is 22-33 ATS (-14.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
UNLV is 12-22 ATS (-12.2 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
UNLV is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UNLV is 2-0 against the spread versus CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
UNLV is 2-0 straight up against CALIFORNIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MONTANA (25 - 6) vs. SYRACUSE (26 - 9) - 3/21/2013, 9:55 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MONTANA is 34-22 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MONTANA is 34-22 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MONTANA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in March games this season.
MONTANA is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MONTANA is 13-6 ATS (+6.4 Units) off a win against a conference rival this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 03-21-13 04:04 PM
CNOTES is offline Click Here to See the Profile for CNOTES Edit post   Report post
Post A Reply
  
Pages (18): « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 [11] 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 »   Last Message   Next Message

Quick Links: