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CNOTES
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Posts: 10543

Vegas Money Moves - Week 8

October 26, 2012

It looks like we’re going to have a barn burner on Sunday night when the New Orleans Saints visit the Denver Broncos, where Las Vegas sports books have posted the total at 55 ½ -- the highest number of Week 8 and the season. A lot of times when we see high totals on these type of games, the game doesn’t live up to expectations, but it’s hard to imagine this one not giving us a video game type of offensive production.
If the league’s worst defense of the Saints, allowing just over 30 points per game, doesn’t give a valid reason to believe the pace of this game will be fast, then maybe the offensive production of the two starting quarterbacks will. Only five quarterbacks in NFL history have averaged over 250 yards per game over their career, and Drew Brees and Peyton Manning are No. 1 and 2, respectively.

On the season, the Saints have averaged 29.3 points per game while Broncos have averaged 28.3. For the Saints, no team has been able to slow their offense down. Their problem -- the reason they started out 0-4 -- is that they can’t stop anyone. However, in their past two games, the Saints have had better defensive production and they get good news this week as Joe Vitt returns to the sideline as interim head coach after serving a six-game suspension for his role in the “Bounty-Gate” scandal.

This year’s version of the Broncos has improved every week as Manning and his core of offensive players are finally getting on the same page with one another. Their three losses on the season have come against Top-5 rated teams in the league -- Atlanta, Houston and New England. Yet, in each of those losses, defenses still had a tough time stopping Manning in the second half.

The Broncos seem to go to extreme highs and lows offensively during their games, with the lows usually being in the first quarter. Before their bye week, they took the extremes to new heights as they gave the Chargers a 24-0 halftime lead before rolling out a 35-0 second half. Ironically, it was a week earlier where the Saints were down at the half to San Diego and used a 17-7 second half run to win 31-24.

The Broncos opened as 4 ½-point favorites last Sunday night and bettors perceived the number offering some value and ran it up to 6 ½ in just over an hour. On Monday morning, Saints money finally found its way to the book and pushed the number down to 6, where it’s remained all week. The total opened 54 ½ Monday and was bet up to 55 ½ by Tuesday morning.

Here’s a look at some of the other line movements in Las Vegas from this week:

The Patriots and Rams meet in London for the sixth regular season game to be played across the pond. Our brand of football has people excited in London just because it‘s something different for them, but the top match of the day in the city will be across town when proper football is played at Stamford Bridge between Manchester United and Chelsea.

This will be the second time the Patriots have played in England, and the locals have to be wondering why the NFL would send a team with name like the “Patriots” over so much. It’s like an American winning at Wimbledon on the Fourth of July. It's been 236 years, but there is still some bitterness over the revolution by ‘Their’ colonies.

The Pats opened up as 8 ½-point favorites and have been bet down to 7 with no movement on the total at 47. The English punters will have fun with the wagering aspect and fire away on the games at betting stations all around the stadium, even though the NFL forbids Las Vegas to buy ad time for the Super Bowl. I guess we’re bad in legal Las Vegas, but their good because it’s legal there. Doesn’t make much sense!

The Packers appear to be getting their rhythm back to 2011 speed and have looked very good the past two weeks, which is why we saw a big fat -15 on the board for their home game against the Jaguars. Because of injuries on the Jaguars, the first move was taking the Packers up to -15 ½, but has since been bet down to 14 ½. Jacksonville quarterback Blaine Gabbert (shoulder) is expected to play, but Maurice Jones-Drew (foot) is out.

The Falcons may be 6-0, but bettors still like the turnover machine known as the Eagles as they’ve bet Philly from -2 ½ up to -3 (EVEN).

The Seahawks haven’t been their best away from Seattle, but bettors seem to trust them more in this situation than the Lions, who have been offensively challenged this season. The Lions opened up at -3 (EVEN) and Seattle money has pushed the game off the key number down to 2 ½.

The Jets beat the Dolphins 23-20 in Miami last month and are playing a brand of football closer to what Rex Ryan would like lately, despite being only 1-2 in their past three. However, they got the cover in all three games -- two of them against two of the best teams in the league (Houston, New England). The Jets opened at -2 ½ and have stayed there all week.

The Bears have been bet from 7-point home favorites against the Panthers to -7 ½. Second-year QB Cam Newton asked the media for a suggestion box after another embarrassing Panthers performance last week, and it’s not going to get any easier for him this week against the Bears defense. Good luck, kid.

The Steelers opened as 4-point home favorites against the Redskins and have been bet up to -4 ½. Make a note that Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau is 14-1 in his career against rookie quarterbacks.

The Raiders and Chiefs usually win as visitors when squaring off, which makes this line seem a little strange where the Chiefs are -1 ½. Trends aside, the Chiefs have lost three in a row, and badly. Even worse is that backup QB Brady Quinn has no grasp on how to run any offense and he’ll be leading the Chiefs charge this week.

The Cowboys opened as 1-point home favorites against the Giants and that number has ran, the other way. The Giants are now -2 ½, and justifiably so.

The 49ers opened as 7-point road favorites against the Cardinals and the number has been bouncing around 6 ½ and 7 all week. By the time this game kicks off on Monday, it’ll be at least 7 ½, so if you like the 49ers, jump in when/if it drops back down to -6 ½ and if you like the Cards, wait until Monday.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-28-12 03:46 AM
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Total Talk - Week 8

October 26, 2012

Week 7 Recap

Total players have seen a real good balance this season and Week 7 was no different. The 'under' went 7-6 and most of the outcomes were clear-cut. The Green Bay-St. Louis was mentioned last week as a "Total System Play" and it cashed the 'over' but it was real fortunate. The two teams put up a combined 27 points (7 in the last minute) in the final quarter, which helped jump over the closing number of 45. These second-half outbursts have been very common through seven weeks and it's definitely helped the betting public get back some money on 'over' tickets. On the season, the 'over' stands at 52-51-1.

Professional Plug

Joe Nelson has gone 10-3-1 (77%) on his NFL Total Plays this season and that record includes his Thursday Night winner on the 'over' between the Buccaneers and Vikings. Check out his winners for Sunday!

Lookin' at London

The NFL International Series returns this week with New England (4-3) and St. Louis (3-4) meeting at Wembley Stadium from London. This will be the sixth installment from England and if the trends stay true, we could be looking at another 'under' ticket.

2007 - New York Giants 13 Miami 10 (Under 48)
2008 - New Orleans 37 San Diego 32 (Over 45.5)
2009 - New England 35 Tampa Bay 7 (Under 45)
2010 - San Francisco 24 Denver 16 (Under 41.5)
2011 - Chicago 24 Tampa Bay 18 (Under 44)

The 'under' is cashing at an 80% (4-1) clip in these games and you could point to travel or even the dreary overcast weather in London. Either way you slice it, the numbers don't lie. For this week's matchup, the total opened at 46 ½ and jumped to 47 at a few outfits

New England is one of the few teams in the league that has an offense (34.8 PPG) that can come close to eclipsing the total by itself. However, the Rams' offense (18.6 PPG) has been very inconsistent this season but they'll be facing a Patriots' defense (23.3 PPG) that has been suspect at times. Does a bad offense score on a bad defense?

The Patriots have seen the 'over' cash in four straight games after their first two went 'under.' St. Louis has seen the 'under' go 4-3 but that number should easily be 5-2 if it wasn't for the aforementioned "Bad Beat" above.

Divisional Battles

Indianapolis at Tennessee: This total (47) is clearly based on the Titans' defense, which has allowed an average of 34 PPG this season. It's hard to see Indianapolis getting to that number, considering it's only scored a combined 30 points in two road contests this season. Tennessee's offense has played better with Matt Hasselbeck at QB, scoring 26 and 35 points the last two weeks. Despite the results this season, the 'under' has gone 6-1 in the last seven encounters between this pair.

Miami at N.Y. Jets: New York stopped Miami 23-20 in Week 3 and the even though the game went 'over' (40.5), it was helped with some key turnovers and the extra session. The rematch has a total in the same neighborhood and you could argue either way. All of the Dolphins' games could have gone 'under' if it wasn't for some crazy second-half outbursts, including the loss to the Jets. New York has seen the 'over' go 4-3 and even though the team has put 35 and 26 points the last two weeks, this isn't a run 'n shoot squad. With a Hurricane approaching the East Coast this weekend, keep an eye on the weather reports.

Oakland at Kansas City: Seven of the last eight in this series has gone 'under' and it could be eight of nine come Sunday. With Brady Quinn at quarterback, the Chiefs haven't been able to do anything but a week of rest could change that and the Raiders' defense (28.5 PPG) is far from good. Kansas City doesn't have a great defense (30.5 PPG) either but Oakland's offense has looked sluggish on the road (13 PPG).

N.Y. Giants at Dallas: Seems like a high number (47 ½) here, considering the Giants (5-2) and Cowboys (4-2) have solid marks to the 'under.' In the Week 1 opener, Dallas won 24-17 on the road. That number closed at 45 ½ and now it's a little higher, which makes you wonder why? Dallas has scored 16 and 18 in two home games and New York has allowed a total of 29 points in three road games. Certainly hard to argue an 'over' play when you look at the matchup on paper but the line could have you scratching your head. Also, don't forget the Cowboys' defense lost LB Sean Lee (toe) for the season and that's tough to overcome.

San Francisco at Arizona: This is the lowest total on the board (37 ½) and you would expect the number to go up a little since it's a MNF battle. However, Arizona (6-1) and San Francisco (4-2) have both leaned to the 'under' this season and it's hard to argue otherwise. They both have great defensive units and inconsistent attacks, which is the perfect combination for an 'under.' The 'under' has gone 4-2 in the last six meetings.

Line Moves

The smart money went 3-0 with their total moves in Week 7. Below are the Week 8 totals that have been adjusted by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS as of Friday.

San Diego at Cleveland: Line opened at 45 ½ and dropped to 44
Atlanta at Philadelphia: Line opened at 46 ½ and dropped to 45
Carolina at Chicago: Line opened at 45 and dropped to 43

Under the Lights

After watching the 'over' go 3-0 in Week 6, the 'under' came back in Week 7 with a 3-0 record. Overall, the 'under' stands at 15-8 (65%) on the season, which includes the outcome between Tampa Bay and Minnesota (36-17) on Thursday. Gamblers might want to make a note that with the Bucs' outright win, the underdog has covered six straight in the mid-week matchup.

Fearless Predictions

Caught a couple breaks last week and produced a 2-0 record in the Best Bets but lost the Team Total on the Jets. Guess the Patriots' defense is that bad. The Three-Team teaser cashed and gave us a profit of $190 for the week and $320 on the season. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: N.Y. Giants-Dallas 47

Best Under: New England-St. Louis 47

Best Team Total: Under 20 ½ Oakland

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 38 N.Y. Giants-Dallas
Under 51 Oakland-Kansas City
Under 54.5 Jacksonville-Green Bay




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-28-12 03:48 AM
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Week 8 Tips

October 26, 2012

Heading into Week 8 of the NFL season, home favorites of 3 ½ points or less own a dreadful 8-18 ATS record. Five teams are in that situation this week, including three clubs that are hosting division opponents. Home 'chalk' laying 3 ½ points or fewer have covered just two of eight times this season against division foes, while the 'under' has cashed six times. We'll take a look at these five contests with short home favorites, starting with an AFC South battle as two teams attempt to grab their fourth victory of the season.

Colts at Titans (-3 ½, 47) - 1:00 PM EST

Tennessee is favored for the first time this season following consecutive victories over Pittsburgh and Buffalo. The Titans try to reach the .500 mark with a win over the Colts, who knocked off the hapless Browns last week, 17-13. Both teams are playing their second divisional contest, as Tennessee was trampled at Houston in Week 4, while Indianapolis lost at home to Jacksonville in Week 3.

The Titans rallied for wins over the Steelers (26-23) and Bills (35-34), while posting a 3-1 SU/ATS record against teams currently at .500 or below. Tennessee cashed just two of six times in Mike Munchak's first season as a home favorite, but one of those victories came over Indianapolis last October. Due to Tennessee's porous defense, the Titans have hit the 'over' in five of six games, while allowing 30 points or more five times.

The Colts have failed to win consecutive games this season, coming off their third victory against the Browns last week as a short favorite. Indianapolis is riding a 10-game losing streak away from Lucas Oil Stadium dating back to last season, including an 0-5 ATS run as a single-digit underdog. The home team has won six of the previous eight meetings in the series, but a majority of these games did have Peyton Manning under center for the Colts.

Falcons at Eagles (-3, 45) - 1:00 PM EST

The final undefeated team in the NFL tries to move to 7-0 with a victory on Sunday as Atlanta heads to Philadelphia. Andy Reid's club is in a prime spot this week coming off the bye, as the Eagles own a 10-0 SU and 8-2 ATS record the last 10 seasons in this situation. Philadelphia will try to bounce back after throwing away a 10-point lead in an overtime defeat to Detroit two weeks ago.

The Eagles have cashed only two of six games this season, including a 1-4 ATS record in the favorite role. The offense isn't anywhere close to hitting its stride right now, as Philadelphia has scored 19 points or less in four of six contests. Philadelphia has won each of the last four meetings at Lincoln Financial Field dating back to 2005.

The Falcons are also off the bye week, but Mike Smith's team has escaped some dicey situations the last three games. Atlanta overcame second-half deficits in victories over Carolina, Washington, and Oakland, while putting together the best start in franchise history at 6-0. In their time as an underdog this season, the Falcons dominated the Chargers in Week 3 as three-point 'dogs, 27-3. The Falcons have won three of four games off the bye in Smith's tenure with the lone defeat coming at Philadelphia in 2008.

Seahawks at Lions (-2 ½, 43) - 1:00 PM EST

Seattle hasn't lost a home game yet this season (3-0), but Pete Carroll's club will try to improve on a 1-3 record away from CenturyLink Field. All three of Seattle's defeats came within the NFC West, including a 13-6 setback at San Francisco last Thursday as 7 ½-point underdogs. The Seahawks travel at least two time zones for the third time in five weeks, as they land in Detroit to battle a Lions' club coming off a Monday night loss at Chicago.

The Lions managed a Wild Card spot last season, but Jim Schwartz's team has work to do if they want a return trip to the playoffs. Detroit is just 2-4 through six games, including an 0-2 mark inside the NFC North. The Lions will try to bust through as a favorite for the first time this season following non-covers against the Rams, Titans, and Vikings.

The Seahawks have rolled when receiving points this season by cashing in all five opportunities as an underdog. Seattle's defense is the main reason for this success, allowing 13 points or less in four of five games in the underdog role. The Seahawks are making their third trip to Ford Field, which includes the loss in Super Bowl XL to the Steelers, but many members of that team are now off the roster.

Dolphins at Jets (-2 ½, 40 ½) - 1:00 PM EST

New York sat two minutes away from building a 3-0 record in the AFC East, but the Patriots kicked the game-tying field goal then the game-winner in overtime to stun the Jets, 29-26. The Jets did manage to cover as 11-point underdogs, their third consecutive ATS victory. The Dolphins travel to Met Life Stadium, as weather could be an issue with Hurricane Sandy making its way up the East Coast.

Miami returns from the bye week following consecutive victories over Cincinnati and St. Louis, while attempting to avenge an overtime setback to the Jets in Week 3 as short home 'dogs, 23-20. Joe Philbin's squad owns a 3-1 ATS record as a single-digit underdog, as the Dolphins seek their fourth road win over the Jets in the last five tries. In spite of the Dolphins going 3-3 to the 'under,' the argument can be made that the 'under' could have at least two more times if not for late scores to force overtime.

The Jets have exploded in home victories over the Bills and Colts, scoring 83 points in those two routs. New York's schedule hasn't been kind to them with losses already to San Francisco and Houston at home, but the Jets are 3-0 SU/ATS in the favorite role. Three of the next four games for the Jets following the bye week come against the NFC West, but the Jets head into this week with a 1-3 SU/ATS at home off a division loss in Rex Ryan's tenure.

Raiders at Chiefs (-1 ½, 42) - 4:05 PM EST

These old AFL rivals have hit the skids this season, combining for a 3-9 record, while all three of the wins came when trailing in the fourth quarter. Oakland stunned Jacksonville last Sunday in overtime, rallying from a 14-point deficit to beat the Jaguars, 26-23, but the Raiders failed to cover as six-point 'chalk.' The Chiefs have plenty of problems, as Romeo Crennel turns to former Notre Dame standout Brady Quinn to right the ship at quarterback.

Kansas City should be fortunate it has even one victory this season, overcoming a 24-6 deficit in a 27-24 overtime triumph at New Orleans in Week 3 as nine-point 'dogs. Since that win, the Chiefs have scored 36 total points in losses to the Chargers, Ravens, and Buccaneers. The Chiefs are favored for the first time since Week 16 of last season when Kansas City was tripped up by Oakland as three-point favorites, 16-13. Since 2008, the Chiefs have put together a dreadful 3-10 ATS record when laying points at Arrowhead Stadium.

The road team owns this series over the last few seasons, as the Raiders have won five consecutive trips to Western Missouri. Oakland is averaging just 13 points per game in three away losses, but managed a cover as nine-point 'dogs in a three-point loss at Atlanta two weeks ago. The Silver and Black doesn't mess around against division foes on the highway, compiling an 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS record since 2009, with the lone ATS defeat coming at Denver in Week 4.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-28-12 03:50 AM
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Gridiron Angles - Week 8

October 27, 2012

NFL ATS TREND:

-- The Raiders are 0-10 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since December 30, 2001 after a game as at least a three-point favorite where they trailed by at least a TD.

NFL OU TREND:

-- The Rams are 0-13 OU (11.4 ppg) since 2000 after a game where they punted no more than two times and recorded at least three sacks.

NCAA ATS PLAY ON TREND:

-- Florida is 12-0 ATS (10.2 ppg) since 1994 when they covered by more than 19 last game while allowing less than 13 points and aren’t a favorite of 40 or more points.

NCAA ATS PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- Tulane is 0-12 ATS (-16.5 ppg) since October 2003 past game two as between a 5-pt favorite and 15-pt dog, when they won by a TD or less or lost by four or less last game.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

-- When facing a team which allowed 35+ points last game and less than 14 points two games ago, teams are 114-86-6 ATS (57.0%). Active with Oakland playing Kansas City.

NFL BIBLE TREND OF THE WEEK:

-- The Packers are 19-0 ATS (+13.7 ppg) since October 1994 when they are off a game in which they passed for at least 325 yards and punted fewer than four times




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-28-12 03:54 AM
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NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 8

Jacksonville Jaguars at Green Bay Packers (-14.5, 45.5)

Both the Green Bay Packers and Jacksonville Jaguars will be without a key player when they meet at Lambeau Field. Green Bay will be without S Charles Woodson. The former NFL Defensive Player of the Year suffered a broken left clavicle in last week's 30-20 triumph at St. Louis and is expected to miss at least six weeks. The Jaguars, who have lost three in a row, will not have Maurice Jones-Drew in the lineup after the running back sprained his left foot on the first play of last Sunday's 26-23 overtime loss at Oakland and is out indefinitely. The Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-1, 40.5)

The Dolphins suffered an overtime loss at home to the Jets last month after carrying a seven-point lead into the fourth quarter and missed a pair of field goals, including the game-winner in the extra session. Miami's last four games have all been decided by four points or fewer, including wins at Cincinnati (17-13) and against St. Louis (17-14) entering its bye. The Jets have been hit-or-miss at home, scoring one offensive TD in back-to-back losses to San Francisco and Houston while rolling up a combined 83 points in wins over Buffalo and Indianapolis. The Dolphins have played under the total in their last seven October games.

San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns (3, 44)

The Chargers were accused of using Stickum - a banned substance - during their 35-24 loss to Denver on Oct. 15 and continue to be investigated by the NFL. San Diego also had extra time to think about how they blew a 24-0 halftime lead against the Broncos. Browns RB Trent Richardson had eight yards on eight carries last week against the Colts before being benched at halftime as he tried to play with a rib cartilage injury. Richardson said he intends to be ready for Sunday. The under is 7-1 in Cleveland’s last eight home games.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (-3.5, 47)

The Titans have been a sieve on defense, allowing a league-worst 238 points, but they eked out a 35-34 victory over the Buffalo Bills last week on Matt Hasselbeck's fourth-down touchdown pass with 63 seconds to play. Chris Johnson broke out of his season-long funk, rushing for 195 yards and two touchdowns in the victory over Buffalo. Johnson had been held to 24 yards or fewer in four of the team's first five games. The Colts have won six of the last seven meetings with Tennessee, but all but one of those victories came with Peyton Manning under center. The Colts are 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a win.

New England Patriots at St. Louis Rams (7, 47)

The Rams lost a little zip in their offensive attack when receiver Danny Amendola went down with a collarbone injury in Week 5. Since then, QB Sam Bradford has just one TD pass and the Rams have lost two straight. Four teams have logged season highs in yards gained against New England, which has allowed an average of 338 yards through the air in its last five games. Remember, this game is being played at Wembley Stadium in London, England taking away home advantage for either team. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 44.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles had the bye week to get acquainted with a new defensive coordinator. Todd Bowles’ first test comes when the Eagles host the last unbeaten team in the NFL, the Atlanta Falcons. Head coach Andy Reid is 13-0 after a bye week, the longest winning streak since bye weeks were introduced. But this time he has had to oversee a change on the defensive side of the ball after firing Juan Castillo and promoting Bowles from the secondary.

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-9, 43)

Chicago tops the NFL with a plus-13 turnover margin and has allowed a league-best 13 points per game, which doesn't bode well for Carolina and second-year QB Cam Newton. The Panthers have lost four straight and have been plagued by turnovers all season - their minus-6 turnover margin ranks 26th in the league. The bad news keeps coming for Carolina, which placed CB Chris Gamble (torn labrum) and LB Jon Beason (knee, shoulder) on injured reserve this week. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five October games.

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-1, 43)

The Seahawks pulled off an upset of the New England Patriots in Week 6 but fell flat at San Francisco last Sunday, scoring a season-low six points. Quarterback Russell Wilson has two touchdowns, seven interceptions and a 58.9 completion percentage in four road games this season. Detroit turned the ball over three times in the red zone in Monday’s 13-7 loss at Chicago and did not find the end zone until late in the fourth quarter. The Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

Washington Redskins at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5, 47)

Pittsburgh, which is coming off its first road win, has won eight straight inter-conference games and Ben Roethlisberger is 14-1 at home against NFC opponents. And rookie QBs are 1-14 against Dick LeBeau’s intricate zone-blitz schemes since the 75-year-old returned to Pittsburgh in 2004. Redskins TE Fred Davis, who leads the team with 24 receptions, tore his Achilles' tendon in last week’s loss to the Giants. The Redskins filled the void Monday by re-signing eight-year veteran TE Chris Cooley, who was released in the offseason. The teams have played under the total in their last four meetings.

Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-1, 42.5)

Brady Quinn will make his second straight start at QB - and first since coach Romeo Crennel appointed him the primary option for the foreseeable future – when the Chiefs seek to end a three-game losing streak against the visiting Oakland Raiders. The Raiders, 0-3 on the road this season, overcame three turnovers and a 20-6 deficit to beat Jacksonville last week. Oakland is 31st in the league in rushing (76.8 ypg) despite having one of the most electrifying tailbacks in the league in Darren McFadden. Run DMC is only averaging 2.6 yards per carry over the last three games. The teams have played under the total in 12 of their last 14 meetings.

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (1, 47.5)

Eli Manning pulled off his 24th career fourth-quarter comeback in a win over Washington last Sunday but will be taking on a Cowboys secondary that is the strength of the defense. Dallas knocked off New York in the season opener, 24-17, but may without starting RB DeMarco Murray, who has missed practice this week with a sprained foot. Felix Jones will start if Murray can't suit up. Phillip Tanner and Lance Dunbar could also see carries for the Cowboys. Dallas is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games.

New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos (-6, 55.5)

The Saints have won two straight after an 0-4 start and welcome back interim coach Joe Vitt, who finished serving a suspension for his role in Bountygate. The Broncos enjoyed their bye week following a 35-24 comeback victory at San Diego on Oct. 15 and will try to take advantage of the Saints' NFL-worst defense which has allowed 2,793 yards through six games, the most in NFL history since at least 1950. Denver CB Tracy Porter, who played four seasons in New Orleans (2008-11), missed the San Diego game after experiencing light-headedness and a rapid heartbeat - symptoms he felt prior to a seizure in August - but could be cleared to play Sunday. The over is 10-1 in the Saints’ last 11 games overall.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-28-12 04:10 AM
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NFL weather watch: Wet and windy on the East Coast

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-1, 38.5)

Site: MetLife Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s with a 70 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the north at 14 mph.

Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears (-7.5, 42.5)

Site: Soldier Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s with a 30 percent chance of rain. Winds will be strong out of the north at 20 mph.

San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns (4, 43.5)

Site: Cleveland Browns Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s with a 95 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the north at 20 mph.

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 42.5)

Site: Lincoln Financial Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s with a 100 percent of rain. Winds will blow out of the north at 14 mph.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-28-12 03:21 PM
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NFL

Week 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Falcons at Eagles: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 43.5)

The Philadelphia Eagles had the bye week to get acquainted with a new defensive coordinator. Todd Bowles’ first test comes on Sunday afternoon, when the Eagles host the last unbeaten team in the NFL, the Atlanta Falcons. Philadelphia’s defense has not gotten much help from the offense and quarterback Michael Vick, who has committed 13 turnovers through the first six games and has had to fight off calls for his removal from the starting lineup. The Falcons rank fourth in the NFL with 17 takeaways and are strong against the pass. Quarterback Matt Ryan had a rough start before the bye against Oakland but is completing nearly 68 percent of his passes while guiding the sixth-ranked scoring offense in the NFL.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Eagles -3, O/U: 43.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s and a 95 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the north at 15 mph.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (3-3): Head coach Andy Reid is 13-0 after a bye week, the longest winning streak since bye weeks were introduced. But this time he has had to oversee a change on the defensive side of the ball after firing Juan Castillo and promoting Bowles from the secondary. The breakdowns on defense through the first six games were usually of the crushing variety, as Philadelphia squandered fourth-quarter leads in each of its last two setbacks. Castillo’s dismissal has helped deflect attention away from the offense during the bye. The Eagles rank 30th in the NFL in scoring offense despite sitting in the middle of the pack in yardage. Turnovers are the difference. Philadelphia’s minus-9 differential is at the bottom of the pack. Vick has been a big part of that and will be facing Atlanta for the third time since being released by the team following his arrest on dogfighting charges. The former face of the Falcons was knocked out with a concussion in the third quarter of last season’s meeting, a 35-31 loss on Sept. 18.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (6-0): Atlanta has benefited from a forgiving schedule and has had to eke out victories at home over Denver, Carolina and Oakland. Ryan threw all six of his interceptions in the three games before the bye but has done enough late in games to keep his team perfect in the win column. Ryan’s complement of targets will be a difficult test for Bowles and the Philadelphia secondary. Tony Gonzalez, Roddy White and Julio Jones each have four touchdown catches. The Falcons’ weak spot is one the Eagles have the capability to exploit - rushing defense. Atlanta has surrendered an average of 143.8 yards and seven touchdowns on the ground and will likely again be without tackle Corey Peters, who was removed from the reserve/non-football injury list but has not been activated.

TRENDS:

* Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last six games in Philadelphia.
* Over is 4-1-1 in Eagles’ last six home games.
* Under is 4-1 in Falcons’ last five games overall.
* Eagles are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. With a victory on Sunday, Atlanta coach Mike Smith would pass Dan Reeves (49) for the most wins in team history.

2. The Falcons overcame a 10-point deficit in the fourth quarter of last season’s meeting as Ryan threw four TD passes.

3. Eagles RB LeSean McCoy has one TD. He led the NFL with 17 rushing scores in 2011




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-28-12 03:22 PM
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CNOTES
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Posts: 10543

NFL

Week 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Giants at Cowboys: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (1, 48)

The Dallas Cowboys seemed to make a statement with a season-opening win over the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants. Since then, it has been the Giants making the statements on the field. New York enters the rematch in first place in the NFC East and riding a three-game winning streak. Eli Manning pulled off his 24th career fourth-quarter comeback in a win over the Washington Redskins last Sunday but will be taking on a Cowboys secondary that is the strength of the defense.

That unit is coming off a strong performance against the Carolina Panthers but could be under more strain with linebacker Sean Lee’s absence weakening the front seven. Lee, the team’s leading tackler, was placed on injured reserve after undergoing surgery on his toe. Dallas will be trying to beat the Giants at home for the first time since opening its new stadium.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Giants -1, O/U 48

ABOUT THE GIANTS (5-2): New York has taken three straight at Cowboys Stadium and Manning is 5-2 in his last seven starts against the Cowboys. But one of those two setbacks came in the season opener, when the Giants were held to 269 total yards and the defense was burned for a pair of long touchdown passes by Tony Romo. Manning tried for some fourth-quarter magic and managed to cut it to 24-17 with a touchdown pass but could not get the ball back in the final 2:36. That would have been plenty of time for the Super Bowl MVP, who needed only two plays to hit Victor Cruz with the 77-yard game-winning touchdown last weekend. Manning threw for 400 yards at Dallas in 2011, leading a pair of touchdown drives in the final 3:41 to pull out the 37-34 triumph. The New York defense had some trouble with Robert Griffin III last Sunday and has struggled to keep Romo in the pocket in the past.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (3-3): A win on Sunday would clinch the head-to-head tiebreaker in Dallas’ favor and give the team a much-needed momentum boost with back-to-back road games at Atlanta and Philadelphia looming over the next two weeks. If the Cowboys survive this stretch, they will have five of the final seven games at home to pad their playoff resume. The thought of a playoff berth was far from reality in Weeks 4 and 6, when Dallas sandwiched its bye week by allowing a combined 65 points to the Chicago Bears and Baltimore Ravens. The Cowboys managed to tighten things up and get back to .500 against Cam Newton and the Panthers last Sunday, forcing a pair of turnovers and relying on Dan Bailey’s leg to win it. The loss of Lee could be crushing for the defense, which will shift Dan Connor into the starting lineup. Dallas could also be without starting running back DeMarco Murray, who has missed practice this week with a sprained foot.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 7-1 in Cowboys’ last eight vs. NFC opponents.
* Under is 5-0 in Giants’ last five road games.
* Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Manning needs three touchdown passes to break Phil Simms’ franchise record of 199.

2. Felix Jones will start in place of Murray. Phillip Tanner and Lance Dunbar could also see carries for the Cowboys.

3. Romo has posted a passer rating over 100 in each of his last five games against New York.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-28-12 03:23 PM
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CNOTES
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Posts: 10543

NFL

Week 8

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Sunday Night Football: Saints at Broncos
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

New Orleans Saints at Denver Broncos (-6, 54.5)

There will be more footballs than oxygen in the thin air of Denver when the Broncos host the New Orleans Saints on Sunday night. New Orleans, led by quarterback Drew Brees, has the No. 1 passing offense in the NFL, while Denver and Peyton Manning are fourth. The Saints have won two straight after an 0-4 start and welcome back interim coach Joe Vitt, who finished serving a suspension for his role in Bountygate. The Broncos enjoyed their bye week following a 35-24 comeback victory at San Diego on Oct. 15 and will try to take advantage of the Saints' NFL-worst defense which has allowed 2,793 yards through six games, the most in NFL history since at least 1950.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Broncos -6, O/U 54.5

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-40s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light out of the west.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (2-4): Brees threw four touchdown passes in New Orleans' 35-28 victory at Tampa Bay last week. The Saints are trying to become the second team since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 to reach the playoffs after starting 0-4, but they'll have to become more balanced on offense. New Orleans is last in the league at 76.2 rushing yards per game. Remarkably, though, its one-dimensional attack hasn't led to Brees getting pummeled by opposing defenses. He has been sacked 12 times, tied for the eighth-lowest total in the NFL. Linebacker Jonathan Vilma, who is appealing his Bountygate suspension, played his first game last week after recovering from a knee injury and broke up a pass and had a knockdown.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (3-3): Manning, who has 14 touchdowns and four interceptions - three in the first quarter against Atlanta - has a passer rating of 105.0, well above his 95.2 career number. While Manning is the key to Denver making the playoffs, the secondary will likely determine whether the Broncos win Sunday. While 11-time Pro Bowl cornerback Champ Bailey continues to play at the highest level, he will need plenty of help to slow down Brees and Co. Cornerback Tracy Porter, though, missed the San Diego game after experiencing light-headedness and a rapid heartbeat - symptoms he also felt prior to a seizure in August. Porter, who played four seasons with New Orleans (2008-11), has yet to receive clearance to play Sunday.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in Saints’ last five road games.
* Over is 10-1 in Saints’ last 11 games overall.
* Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five Week 8 games.
* Saints are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a win.
* Over is 4-1 in Broncos’ last five games following a win.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brees and Manning last met in Super Bowl XLIV on Feb. 7, 2010, when New Orleans defeated Indianapolis 31-17.

2. Aaron Kromer, who served as Saints interim coach with Vitt gone and suspended coach Sean Peyton sitting out the season, returns to his role as offensive line coach.

3. Denver leads the series 7-2 and has won three straight, including a 34-32 victory in the last meeting in 2008 when Brees was 39-of-48 for 421 yards and a touchdown.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-28-12 03:26 PM
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CNOTES
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Posts: 10543

Hilton Super Contest

This is how the handicappers placed their wagers on:

SuperContest Week 8

MIN 18
TB 107

NE 109
STL 68

TEN 79
IND 129

GB 148
JAX 32

SD 206
CLE 83

PHI 303
ATL 123

DET 158
SEA 148

NYJ 131
MIA 216

CHI 73
CAR 144

PIT 81
WAS 220

KC 94
OAK 103

NYG 295
DAL 100

DEN 132
NO 172

SF 95
ARI 133




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-28-12 05:44 PM
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Posts: 10543

NFL Best Bets:

Sunday, October 28

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Jacksonville - 1:00 PM ET Jacksonville +14.5 500
Green Bay - Over 45.5 500

Miami - 1:00 PM ET Miami +1 500
N.Y. Jets - Under 38.5 500

San Diego - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland +3 500
Cleveland - Over 41 500

Indianapolis - 1:00 PM ET Tennessee -3.5 500
Tennessee - Over 46.5 500

New England - 1:00 PM ET St. Louis +7.5 500
St. Louis - Over 46 500

Atlanta - 1:00 PM ET Atlanta +3 500 NFC GOM
Philadelphia - Under 41.5 500

Carolina - 1:00 PM ET Carolina +8.5 500
Chicago - Under 42 500

Seattle - 1:00 PM ET Seattle +2.5 500
Detroit - Under 41.5 500

Washington - 1:00 PM ET Washington +4 500
Pittsburgh - Over 44 500

Oakland - 4:05 PM ET Oakland +1 500
Kansas City - Over 42.5 500

N.Y. Giants - 4:25 PM ET Dallas +1 500
Dallas - Over 48 500




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-28-12 06:00 PM
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CNOTES
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Posts: 10543

Sunday Night NFL Best Bet:

New Orleans - 8:20 PM ET New Orleans +6.5 500

Denver - Under 54.5 500




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-29-12 12:36 AM
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CNOTES
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Posts: 10543

NFL

Week 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tale of the tape: 49ers at Cardinals
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Offense

The 49ers put up 79 points in consecutive blowouts of the Jets and Bills, but they've scored just 16 points in their past two games. Quarterback Alex Smith's inconsistency has resurfaced with two straight lackluster efforts. Look for the 49ers to feed running back Frank Gore against a Cardinals defense that has been much better against the pass than the run.

The Cardinals won their first four games, but they've fallen flat the past three weeks with losses to St. Louis, Buffalo and Minnesota. Arizona has averaged just 11 points during the losing streak. John Skelton is expected to make his second straight start at quarterback. Skelton is 6-0 at home as a starter, including last year's win over the 49ers in which he had a career-best 106.5 rating. Injuries have decimated Arizona's offense, which is leaning on LaRod Stephens-Howling - who started the season as the third-string back - to carry the load.

Edge: 49ers


Defense

San Francisco leads the NFL in total defense (272.3 yards per game) and ranks second in scoring defense (14.3 points per game). The 49ers pass rush will look to take advantage of a Cardinals' line that has given up 35 sacks in seven games, including 29 in the last four, and is on pace for 80 sacks -the second-most in NFL history.

Arizona's pass rush has been strong, producing 22 sacks (third in the NFL), and getting pressure on Smith will be key to the Cardinals' success. The defense has yielded 331 rushing yards in the past two games, but surrendered only 14 points in each of those losses.

Edge: 49ers


Special teams

49ers punter Andy Lee earned NFC Special Teams Player of the Week honors, after pinning the Seahawks inside their own 20-yard line on four of five punts in the 13-6 victory last week.

The Arizona Cardinals should get a boost to their special teams squad with the return of Anthony Sherman (knee) and Reggie Walker (concussion). Return man Patrick Peterson leads the NFL in punt return yards -- 229 of them through seven games. But his average, 8.8 yards per return, puts him in the middle of the pack and his longest return this year is just 26 yards.

Edge: Cardinals


Word on the street

“When you think of the Cardinals you’re going to think of Larry Fitzgerald, obviously, And he’s one of the top receivers in our league, if not the best receiver in the league. Future Hall of Famer and justifiably so, and he’s a tough guy to handle. He’s big. He’s fast. He’s strong. He’s tough to tackle after he catches it. So, him in and of himself is a tough chore.” --49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio on Larry Fitzgerald.

"They're not giving me a chance, really, honestly, they're (the opposition) putting the ball close on the sidelines so they can ... kind of bottle me on the sideline and vise me in versus giving me the whole field to work with." --Peterson on why he hasn’t returned a punt or kick for a TD yet this season.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-30-12 02:04 AM
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

NFL

Week 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tale of the tape: 49ers at Cardinals
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Offense

The 49ers put up 79 points in consecutive blowouts of the Jets and Bills, but they've scored just 16 points in their past two games. Quarterback Alex Smith's inconsistency has resurfaced with two straight lackluster efforts. Look for the 49ers to feed running back Frank Gore against a Cardinals defense that has been much better against the pass than the run.

The Cardinals won their first four games, but they've fallen flat the past three weeks with losses to St. Louis, Buffalo and Minnesota. Arizona has averaged just 11 points during the losing streak. John Skelton is expected to make his second straight start at quarterback. Skelton is 6-0 at home as a starter, including last year's win over the 49ers in which he had a career-best 106.5 rating. Injuries have decimated Arizona's offense, which is leaning on LaRod Stephens-Howling - who started the season as the third-string back - to carry the load.

Edge: 49ers


Defense

San Francisco leads the NFL in total defense (272.3 yards per game) and ranks second in scoring defense (14.3 points per game). The 49ers pass rush will look to take advantage of a Cardinals' line that has given up 35 sacks in seven games, including 29 in the last four, and is on pace for 80 sacks -the second-most in NFL history.

Arizona's pass rush has been strong, producing 22 sacks (third in the NFL), and getting pressure on Smith will be key to the Cardinals' success. The defense has yielded 331 rushing yards in the past two games, but surrendered only 14 points in each of those losses.

Edge: 49ers


Special teams

49ers punter Andy Lee earned NFC Special Teams Player of the Week honors, after pinning the Seahawks inside their own 20-yard line on four of five punts in the 13-6 victory last week.

The Arizona Cardinals should get a boost to their special teams squad with the return of Anthony Sherman (knee) and Reggie Walker (concussion). Return man Patrick Peterson leads the NFL in punt return yards -- 229 of them through seven games. But his average, 8.8 yards per return, puts him in the middle of the pack and his longest return this year is just 26 yards.

Edge: Cardinals


Word on the street

“When you think of the Cardinals you’re going to think of Larry Fitzgerald, obviously, And he’s one of the top receivers in our league, if not the best receiver in the league. Future Hall of Famer and justifiably so, and he’s a tough guy to handle. He’s big. He’s fast. He’s strong. He’s tough to tackle after he catches it. So, him in and of himself is a tough chore.” --49ers defensive coordinator Vic Fangio on Larry Fitzgerald.

"They're not giving me a chance, really, honestly, they're (the opposition) putting the ball close on the sidelines so they can ... kind of bottle me on the sideline and vise me in versus giving me the whole field to work with." --Peterson on why he hasn’t returned a punt or kick for a TD yet this season.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-30-12 02:04 AM
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CNOTES
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Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

NFL

Week 8

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Monday Night Football: 49ers at Cardinals
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (7.5, 38.5)

For the second consecutive week, the San Francisco 49ers will get a chance to make a primetime pitch to assert their command of the NFC West race when they travel to the desert to face the Arizona Cardinals on Monday night. The 49ers are coming off a 13-6 win over Seattle last Thursday that put them back atop the division standings alone, but they'll need to hand Arizona its fourth straight loss to remain there. The Cardinals won their first four games, but they've fallen flat the past three weeks with losses to St. Louis, Buffalo and Minnesota. Arizona has averaged just 11 points during the losing streak, and the offense is in for a challenge against a San Francisco team that leads the NFL in total defense (272.3 yards per game) and ranks second in scoring defense (14.3 points per game). Kevin Kolb (ribs) had not been ruled out as of Thursday, but John Skelton is expected to make his second straight start at quarterback for the Cardinals.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: San Francisco -7.5. O/U: 38.5.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (5-2): San Francisco usually knows what to expect from its dominant defense, but the offense has been a bit of an enigma. The 49ers put up 79 points in consecutive blowouts of the Jets and Bills, but they've scored just 16 points in their past two games. Quarterback Alex Smith's inconsistency has resurfaced with two straight lackluster efforts. Look for the 49ers to feed running back Frank Gore against a Cardinals defense that has been much better against the pass than the run.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (4-3): Injuries have decimated Arizona's offense, which is leaning on LaRod Stephens-Howling - who started the season as the third-string back - to carry the load. Stephens-Howling had a career-high 104 rushing yards and a touchdown last week, and the Cardinals will need another strong effort from him against a 49ers defense that is dominant against the pass. Arizona's pass rush has been strong, producing 22 sacks (third in the NFL), and getting pressure on Smith will be key to the Cardinals' success.

TRENDS:

* 49ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Under is 6-1 in Cardinals’ last seven games overall.
* Under is 4-1-1 in 49ers’ last six games overall.
* Cardinals are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The 49ers have won five of the past six meetings, but the Cardinals won the most recent one, 21-19 last December in Arizona, with three touchdown passes from Skelton.

2. San Francisco is 13-0 when Smith starts and has a rating of 100.0 or higher. He has won 19 of his past 24 starts.

3. Skelton is 6-0 at home as a starter, including last year's win over the 49ers in which he had a career-best 106.5 rating.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-30-12 02:10 AM
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CNOTES
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Posts: 10543

Monday, October 29

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Francisco - 8:30 PM ET Arizona +7 500

Arizona - Under 38.5 500




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-30-12 02:14 AM
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