Back again for our weekly look at what professional wagerers have been betting this week in the NFL as of press time. Remember that additional Wise Guy moves are likely between now and kickoff. This year in particular has seen Sharps waiting until the last two hours before really stepping in heavily on a game. Remember to monitor line movements on the fly Sunday morning.

As always, we take the games in rotation order

NEW ENGLAND AT NY JETS:
An opener of New England -3 was bet up quickly to -4. Surprising that oddsmakers would post a number that low given what we saw back in the first meeting in September. Some Sharps were taking positions off the key number. Others had it above a field goal and bet it to their number. Jets money would come in at +5 if the public drives the line higher before kickoff. Nothing has happened with the Over/Under at press time (43.5). Any forecast for wind or precipitation would bring in Under money pretty aggressively.

SAN DIEGO AT JACKSONVILLE:
Not much betting interest here yet. San Diego is still sitting at -7.5, which will make them a popular teaser choice in two-teamers that cross both the 7 and the 3 on the way down to -1.5. Sharps aren’t interested in backing the horrible Jaguars in single digits. Sharps don’t want to take a more than a touchdown road favorite in a bad-body-clock start in a short week after a Monday Night game. The opening total of 44.5 was bet up a tick to 45.

HOUSTON AT KANSAS CITY:
The Chiefs were bet up from an opener of -4 because of the injury to Matt Schaub. Even before Case Keenum was announced as the starter Thursday, we were seeing Chiefs -6 and -6.5. The total is up from an opener of 39.5 to 40.5.

CINCINNATI AT DETROIT:
Looks like a tug-of-war brewing with Cincinnati +3 and Detroit -2.5. The Cincinnati money has been stronger, so we’re generally seeing Detroit -2.5 as we go to press. That will put Cincinnati in the teaser window as a strong option considering that Sharps already like them at +3. They’ll really like them at +8.5. The total has been bet up from 46 to 47.5 because of the Lions tendency toward higher scoring games when healthy.

BUFFALO AT MIAMI:
Not much interest here. Miami opened at -7.5 and was bet to -8. That’s not much of a move considering the rarity of games landing right on eight points. Miami will be a teaser play for Sharps if the line doesn’t move any more. The total has dropped a point from 43.5 to 42.5. This is a low profile game for Sharps. They don’t trust Miami as a pricey favorite…and they don’t trust Buffalo’s awkward quarterback situation in a road game.

CHICAGO AT WASHINGTON:
Definite Sharp interest on Chicago here, as an opener of +2 has been bet down to +1. Washington’s defense is shaky this season, Chicago has averaged 28 points per gameand RGIII still isn’t moving as well as needed in the pocket. Several games this season have crossed pick-em in the hours leading up to kickoff on Sunday. This could be one of them, with the Bears ending up as a small favorite.

DALLAS AT PHILADELPHIA:
Philadelphia was bet heavily at any opener that was below a field goal. We’re now seeing a solid three everywhere. It’s telling that there hasn’t yet been evidence of a tug-of-war brewing. Dallas money hasn’t presented itself in a meaningful way. Sharps prefer Nick Foles at quarterback to Michael Vick for the Eagles. And, the Wise Guys are aware of the tough injury situation Dallas is dealing with. Sharps were very happy to get Philadelphia at less than a field goal before the line move. An opening total of 56 has been bet down in some spots to 55 and 54.5. That could drop more if weather is going to be an issue in the Northeast this weekend.

ST. LOUIS AT CAROLINA:
Carolina opened at -6.5, and was bet AWAY from the key number of seven. That tells you Sharps like the underdog Rams, and they didn’t expect the public to step in on this favorite. No reason to wait for +7 if it’s not going to happen. Six is an important enough number that taking +6.5 appealed to underdog money.

TAMPA BAY AT ATLANTA:
Atlanta has stood pat right on the key number of -7 all week. Oddsmakers are hesitant to lift them up to -7.5 or higher because they don’t want to deal with all the Falcons teaser plays that would be created. Sharps may take it upon themselves to bet Atlanta heavily Sunday morning to create that teaser option. There’s not much support for either team in the big picture because Atlanta has been a pointspread disappointment and Tampa Bay has a rookie quarterback making his first road start. The total has been bet lightly to the Over off an opener of 42.

SAN FRANCISCO AT TENNESSEE:
San Francisco opened at -5, and has been bet down to Tennessee +4.5 and +4. As we mentioned last week, Sharps think Colin Kaepernick is struggling badly and want to fade him as a favorite. They lost with Arizona last week, even though Kaepernick didn’t play very well once again.Some angle guys like going against SF after a divisional win. We had a very low opening total here of 38.5. It’s been bet up to 39.5 and 40. Scoring is way up this year - the season already features the most passing yards per game through six weeks since 1960 (263.8 per team), as well as a total of 289 touchdown passes -- the most through six weeks in NFL history. .

CLEVELAND AT GREEN BAY:
An opener of Green Bay -11 was bet down to Cleveland +10 because of the Packers dire injury situation. They can’t keep anyone healthy! Sharps don’t like Brandon Weeden, and were reminded of that again last week when the Browns lost as both a team side and a teaser option because of Weeden's miscues. That’s why this line is still fairly high, and only moved down a point. The move represented a bet against Green Bay’s injuries, not a bet on the Browns with Weeden, although aside from last week Cleveland has been surprisingly competitive.

BALTIMORE AT PITTSBURGH:
Here we have another game that was bet away from a key number. Pittsburgh opened at -2.5, but we’re now seeing Baltimore +2 or +1.5. If Sharps liked Pittsburgh, that line would have moved toward the three in a millisecond. It moved away from the three…which tells you Sharps are pretty strong on Baltimore as the superior team. Baltimore will show up in teasers Sunday if the game day line is at +1.5 or +2.

DENVER AT INDIANAPOLIS:
We’re looking at a possible tug-of-war here between Denver -6.5 and Indianapolis +7. An opener of Denver -5.5 was bet up through the week, with Colts money finally showing up when the key number of seven was hit. This is likely to be a very heavily bet game because it’s in prime time Sunday Night and features Peyton Manning against his former team. The public and some Sharps will take Denver below a TD. Wise Guys who won with Dallas and Jacksonville against Denver the past two weeks will be fading them again at the full seven (or better).

MINNESOTA AT THE NY GIANTS (Monday Night):
There’s has been very little interest in this game from the Wise Guys, even after the announcement that Josh Freeman would get the start for the Vikings. Most quarterback Power Ratings didn’t have him any different than Matt Cassel or Christian Ponder. We’re sitting on a key number at NYG -3. It may stay there all the way until kickoff unless a major story develops between now and then. Tough for the Wise Guys to love either side considering that the teams are a combined 1-10 straight up so far!

Not much to report on Over/Unders this week as we go to press. There’s time for weather to become an influence before kickoff. Note that the public hasn’t been very involved with totals yet this season outside of the biggest of the TV games. If you see a line movement of a point or more Sunday on an Over/Under, you can assume it’s Wise Guy driven unless it’s the Over in Broncos/Colts. THAT particular move would probably be public-driven. Any Sharps who liked that Over would have bet it already.
Thats all for now, as always, GOOD LUCK DEN!!!

Thanks, Dwight.

Good luck.

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