dwight007
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Aug 2003
Posts: 771
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Las Vegas Sharps Report - NFL Week 10
It’s a very interesting week for Sharps, who took a hit along with many sportsbooks when NFL underdogs had a rare bad Sunday. Starting with tonight’s Indianapolis-Jacksonville game on the NFL Network, Sharps will have to decide if they want to keep fading public favorites at a time when the list of BAD teams keeps growing longer and longer.
Let’s run through the full NFL card and see how Sharps are betting this weekend. There’s an interesting mix of challenges from games in the 4-6 pointspread range, and some teaser spots that were created by big line moves.
Note that Arizona, Cleveland, Green Bay, and Washington all have byes this week. This is the next to last week for byes. Games are presented in rotation order.
INDIANAPOLIS at JACKSONVILLE:
Vegas opened this game at Colts -3, which is already a big move in the series because they were three point favorites at home earlier this season. So, the market made a six point adjustment once you factor in the site. That kept Sharps from getting involved aggressively. The public, after hearing all week about how great Andrew Luck has been, and after seeing stories about how the players shaved their heads in solidarity with ailing head coach Chuck Pagano, has hit the Colts hard enough to move the line to Indy -3.5 as we go to press.
BUFFALO at NEW ENGLAND:
Sharps hit the double digit dog out of the gate, as an opener of New England -12 was bet down to -11. You regulars know that there are some old school Sharps who play every double digit dog on principle. They moved, as did some others. There wasn’t enough support to drive the line all the way to the key number of ten though, as Buffalo got hammered by the Pats 6 weeks ago on their home field, and looked lethargic last week, while NE comes in off a bye.
NY GIANTS at CINCINNATI:
Games last week in the price range of 4-7 gave sportsbooks and many Sharps migraines. Those groups generally root for underdogs, while Squares find the favorites affordably cheap. This is our first game this week in that range, and Sharps aren’t shying away from the underdog. Cincinnati opened at +6, but has been bet down to +4.5. If last week is any indication, the public will be on the Giants on game day, just like they were on Denver in this city a week ago. Another Manning!
SAN DIEGO at TAMPA BAY:
Tampa Bay opened at -2.5, which is right under the key number. That tells you that oddsmakers believed Sharps were going to like the dog with the added preparation time off a Thursday game. Sharps jumped on the Bucs instead and drove the line to a full field goal. Tampa Bay has been the better team in recent weeks, and many Sharps told us they couldn’t believe the game opened below three. They bet the value immediately. Note that we’ll only be mentioning Over/Unders today in games that have shown Sharp tendencies. None yet to this point on the card.
DENVER at CAROLINA:
Another game between the three and seven for a road favorite, and another game where Sharps didn’t shy away from the dog. Denver opened at -5.5. We’re now seeing lines between -3.5 and -4 for the Broncos. This is the second straight road favorite spot for the Broncos outside of their time zone, and Carolina has been playing better of late after a slow start. Some Sharps like this situational home dog quite a bit, particularly since the NFC has fared well in interconference play this year.
TENNESSEE at MIAMI:
Miami opened at -6.5, Sharps played the dog rather tentatively, with the line dropping down to Miami -6. Sharps have mostly been fond of Miami this year, and they don’t like Tennessee’s defense. Oddsmakers pretty much nailed Sharp sentiment here in a game that may have seen a line near a field goal a month ago.
OAKLAND at BALTIMORE:
Our first game in the teaser window this week, with Baltimore opening at -7.5. Should the line stay there on game day, the Ravens will be a popular choice in two-team teasers for Sharps and Squares alike, moving the number down past the 7 and the 3 to -1.5. You may see some stores lift Baltimore to -9 to discourage that, given the tendency for the public to bet favorites and to fade West Coast travelers in early starts. The total has dropped from 47 to 46, which may be an early sign of weather issues because Oakland’s defense has struggled on the road.
ATLANTA at NEW ORLEANS:
This time we have a home dog in the teaser window. Atlanta opened at -1.5 and is now sitting at -2. That means basic strategy would push the dog up past +3 and +7 in two-team teasers. There are some Sharps who have Atlanta -1.5 already, but who will also be on New Orleans in teasers this Sunday hoping the game lands in that vast window. Sharps who like Atlanta believe they match up well against the poor New Orleans defense.
DETROIT at MINNESOTA:
We have a huge Sharp move here on the Lions, as they opened at +2.5 (+3 in some of the earliest spots) on the road here but have been bet all the way to a 1-point favorite (-2 in spots). You don’t normally see that in the NFL unless there’s an injury involved. Here, it looks to be a matter of oddsmakers not adjusting their Power Ratings quickly enough. Detroit has been playing better ball lately, while Minnesota has struggled badly against Seattle and Tampa Bay. Oddsmakers saw the two teams as close to even. Sharps believe Detroit is the clearly superior side right now. This line move does stick Minnesota in the basic strategy teaser range at +1.5, +2, or if the line moves further to +2.5. The total is up from 45.5 to 46.5 or 47 on strong Over sentiment from the math guys.
NY JETS at SEATTLE:
Seattle opened at -6, which is a line few would have imagined back when the season started. Sharps bet the favorite anyway, moving it up to -6.5. This goes against what we’ve been seeing in this price range this week, which is meaningful. Jets money would come in only if the line goes all the way to seven. Basically, those who think Mark Sanchez will be overmatched on the road by a strong NFC defense bet the Seahawks early. Those who prefer the “defensive dog” position of the Jets are waiting to see if they can get +7 over the weekend.
DALLAS at PHILADELPHIA:
We have another flip flop of favorites. Philadelphia opened at -1.5. They’ve been playing so badly of late that Sharps hit Dallas hard enough to make the Cowboys the favorite at that price. Both teams have issues right now. Sharps believe the dark cloud hanging over Philadelphia is gloomier at the moment. Will those clouds mess up teaser plays? Philadelphia has moved into the teaser window because of pessimism about the team.
ST. LOUIS at SAN FRANCISCO:
This is a West Coast version of Buffalo/New England, where the Super Bowl contending favorite opened at -12 against an overmatched divisional foe. Some Sharps hit the dog lightly (particularly the old school guys), so we’re now seeing San Francisco -11.5 or -11 in most places.
HOUSTON at CHICAGO:
The big move here was on the total. As an opener of 44 has been bet down to 41.5. Some of that is weather potential, but a lot of it is simply a matchup of great defenses on a field where it can be hard for offenses to move the ball consistently. Houston’s been playing conservatively on offense this season, and much of Chicago’s scoring is a result of cheap points against bad teams. Frankly, a very bad total from oddsmakers that got spanked quickly. Chicago opened at -1. If the line moves up, that will put Houston in the teaser window in a defensive struggle. Should oddsmakers move Chicago all the way to -3 on game day because of public support for the hosts, then Sharps would come in very strong on Houston +3. Tricky spot for sportsbooks in a game that will have a huge handle as a prime time showdown of Super Bowl hopefuls.
KANSAS CITY at PITTSBURGH:
Not much betting interest in this one at all. It’s worth nothing that Pittsburgh opened at -12.5 and there WASN’T a move toward the double digit dog. Kansas City’s been playing so badly that Sharps won’t invest even at this price. They might at +13 or +14 on game day if Squares hit the TV favorite.
That wraps up this week’s look at what the Sharps are betting in the NFL, as always, Good Luck Den!
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11-09-12 08:51 PM
