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CNOTES
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Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

NFL underdogs off to best start in 15 years

With the way NFL underdogs are cashing in, football bettors are like Trick-or-Treaters at the oddsmakers’ door, opening their bags for as many points as books will give them.

Teams getting the points have posted a profitable 57-32-2 mark against the spread this season, covering at an unreal 64 percent. That figure was helped out by a Week 6 schedule in which underdogs went 12-2 ATS. The 57-32-2 ATS record by NFL underdogs so far is the best mark for pups through the first six weeks of the season over at the past 15 years, which is as far back as our numbers go.

The previous best six-week record for NFL underdogs during that span was a 49-25-7 ATS mark (60.49 percent) in 1999. Underdogs also went a profitable 49-36-2 ATS (56.32 percent) through the first six weeks in 2010.

These results are music to the sportbooks’ ear. The majority of public bettors play the favorites on a week-to-week basis, fattening the oddsmakers’ pockets with every close game and outright upset.

"Everything is going good if you're on this side of the counter," Jimmy Vaccaro, director of public relations for William Hill sportsbooks in Nevada, told Matt Youmans of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. "The 'dogs are showing, and the books are doing very well."

According to some books, poor play from the league’s top teams – like the Steelers, Packers, and Eagles (combined 4-12-1 ATS) – is contributing to that trend. Teams like the Rams (5-1 ATS), Buccaneers (4-1 ATS), and Seahawks (4-2 ATS) have made a mint for bettors looking for the live dog.

“The league has been leaning toward parity for years now,” Aaron Kessler, sportsbook supervisor at the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas, told Covers. “There’s really not much difference between the top teams and the bottom teams. Just look at the AFC East, you have four teams tied for first and last place.”

The appeal of betting the underdog is catching on both in Nevada and online. Kessler says more public bettors are sizing up the underdogs each week, especially with all the recent media attention and stories on the trend. At online sportsbook, bet365.com, they estimate that there has actually been more money wagered on the underdogs than the favorites so far this season.

“I’m happy to see that at least more parity in the league is evident,” Aron Black, of bets365.com, told Covers. “Teams who traditionally would not be expected to win are getting wins. And teams who were expected to steamroll have not. It makes for great booking.”

But in sports betting, like in life, the universe tends to balance itself out. In 1999, when underdogs covered at better than a 60 percent clip through the first six weeks, teams getting the points eventually finished 119-102-11 ATS (51 percent). And in 2010, when pups got off to a 49-36-2 ATS start heading into Week 7, underdogs finished the season 127-121-5 ATS (50.19 percent).

“It can only last so long,” says Kessler. “Eventually, favorites are going to start covering again. I’m going to start looking for value with the favorites.”

Black also expects the results to level out, but doesn’t see this trend going away overnight.

“I don’t think it will be for a good few weeks yet," he says. "With so many teams in the running and only a few that you can look at as out of contention at this stage, there will be many more surprises or at least considered surprise results to come."

“Long may the surprises continue, I say, and keep us all guessing from one week to the next.”




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-18-12 04:02 AM
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CNOTES
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Football lines that make you go hmmm...

Will someone please check the pulse of the Dallas Cowboys?

There’s no way they’re still alive and kicking after having their hearts ripped out of their chests multiple times during Sunday’s 31-29 loss to the Baltimore Ravens.

It was like that scene in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom, when Mola Ram rips out that guy’s ticker and lights it on fire – except on repeat with the volume cranked all the way to 11.

Dallas took bettors on a roller-coaster ride in Week 6, covering as a 3-point road underdog thanks to a last-minute drive that brought the Cowboys to within two points. They nearly won the game outright after a successful onside kick, but poor clock management by the Dallas sideline led to a missed field goal as time ticked down.

It was a tough loss to swallow and one the Cowboys need to shake off before traveling to Carolina to face the Panthers as 1-point road favorites in Week 7. And it’s that spread that has America’s Team leading off our “Football lines that make you go hmmm…” for the second straight week.

This spread opened as high as -2.5 in favor of Dallas but is sitting -1 at plenty of online books. Breaking the odds down by betting basics, are we to believe that 1-4 Carolina – which has lost three straight before a bye in Week 6 – is just four points worse than 5-1 Baltimore?

While there are plenty of flaws with that logic, it’s safe to say the Panthers are just where they need to be in terms of the spread. Carolina may have only one win to its name (35-27 over New Orleans) but it’s played an uphill schedule, featuring an underrated Buccaneers team, the Saints, Giants, Falcons and Seahawks.

Dallas limps into Sunday, with starting running back Demarco Murray out with a sprained foot after such a dominant first half versus the Ravens. The Cowboys, normally a pass-heavy team, broke character and took to the ground, finishing the day with 227 yards rushing.

Without Murray, Dallas is left to wonder what kind of team it really is heading into Week 7. And, by the looks of the Cowboys’ recent spreads, oddsmakers are also having a tough time determining just what Big D is all about.

Here are some other spreads making football bettors go “hmmm…” heading into the weekend:

NFL

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+1, 46)

In the same vein as the Dallas-Carolina line, oddsmakers have set the Steelers as 1-point faves on the road in Week 7.

Pittsburgh is coming off a shocking loss to Tennessee, dragging behind it a handful of scrapes and bruises as well as an unflattering 2-3 record – all of those losses coming away from home.

More importantly, the Steelers have managed to cover in only one game this season and have been favorites in four of those five contests.

Cincinnati, on the other hand, has lost two in a row SU and ATS after a strong start including last weekend’s 34-24 defeat at the hands of state rival Cleveland as a 1-point road chalk.

Pittsburgh has dominated this AFC North grudge match, in terms of the pointspread, going 18-7-1 ATS in the last 26 meetings between these teams and 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 travels to Paul Brown Stadium.

NCAAF

Cincinnati Bearcats at Toledo Rockets (+7, 64.5)

Regardless of the overall strength of the conference, the Big East has three teams ranked in the Top 25 this week, one of them being the No. 18 Bearcats who make the drive north to Toledo as touchdown favorites Saturday.

Cincinnati’s unblemished 5-0 SU record is packed with as much sweet cake and frosting as a Twinkie, picking up “W’s” against Pitt, FCS Delaware State, Virginia Tech, Miami (Ohio) and FCS Fordham. Those three FBS foes have a combined 9-11 SU mark so far this year.

The Rockets are quietly climbing the power ratings and could be undefeated themselves if not for an overtime loss to Arizona in Week 1. Toledo has flexed its offensive muscle in recent weeks, scoring a total of 102 points in its last two outings.

This Toledo program is no pushover and has thrived versus big-name BCS opponents, putting the fear of God into the likes of Ohio State, Arizona and Michigan in past years.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Iowa Hawkeyes (-3, 42.5)

The Jerry Sandusky sentencing is stealing headlines in State College, keeping much of the focus away from a very good PSU football team.

The Nittany Lions, discarded after a pressure-filled 0-2 start, have risen from the ashes to win four in a row. Not only has Penn State been victorious in those games but it’s also riding a 5-0 ATS streak into Saturday’s tilt in Iowa City.

The Hawkeyes upset an overrated Michigan State squad in overtime last Saturday and have collected four wins against much weaker opposition. However, books are giving the field goal to the Nittany Lions, who had a bye week to prepare for Iowa, which will undoubtedly be suffering from a bit of a hangover.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-18-12 04:06 AM
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

Top 5 NFL Trends



WAS
NYG

Under is 6-0 in NYG last 6 games following a S.U. win.



WAS
NYG

Under is 5-0 in NYG last 5 games following a ATS win.



WAS
NYG

NYG are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.



WAS
NYG

Over is 5-0 in WAS last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.



WAS
NYG

Under is 4-0 in NYG last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-18-12 04:09 AM
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CNOTES
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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 7

Seahawks (4-2) @ 49ers (4-2)—No love lost between HCs since they were Pac-10 rivals; Harbaugh’s Stanford team once beat Carroll’s USC squad as 41-point underdogs, but he is favored here, coming off 26-3 loss to Giants, his first non-cover (10-1) as home favorite with 49ers, whose four wins are all by 8+ points. Underdog is 6-0 vs spread in Seattle games this year, with five of six games decided by 6 or less points; Hawks were favored in two of three road games- they’ve scored only 15 ppg in three road tilts (1-2, with losses by 4-6 points). 49ers are 16-4-2 vs spread in game following their last 22 losses. Two SF losses came in games where they were minus in turnovers; they were -3 last week, are +2 for years, +30 in 22 regular season games under Harbaugh. Seattle has turned ball over eight times (-4) in three road games. Keep in mind NFC underdogs are 32-5 vs spread this year, 4-1 as divisional road dogs.

Titans (2-4) @ Bills (3-3)—Buffalo lost its last 12 pre-bye games (3-8-1 vs spread, 1-4 last five when favored); they’ve lost seven of last eight games with Titans, including last four in row by average (23-17 LY), with average total in those four, 50.3. Tennessee has extra prep time after upsetting Steelers last Thursday, but teams are 3-7 this year coming off Wed/Thurs games- since start of ’10, Titans are 5-10 vs spread in game following a win. Buffalo allowed 17-14-16 points in its wins, 48-52-45 in losses; favorites covered five of their six games this year (Bills 2-0 as favorite in ’12, 7-11-1 as home favorites since ‘08). Tennessee won three of last four visits here, where fans will be fired up with all four AFC East teams tied for first at 3-3. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 5-3 vs spread, 3-2 at home; AFC South non-divisional road dogs are 1-4. Three of last four Titan games, four of six Buffalo games went over total.

Cardinals (4-2) @ Vikings (4-2)—Larry Fitzgerald goes home to Metrodome, where Cardinals lost last seven visits (27-24ot/34-10 last two years); Arizona has injury issues at QB, with Kolb/Skelton both having been KO’d from games this year. Redbirds lost last two games, scoring one TD on 25 drives, after scoring nine TDs on 49 drives in 4-0 start. Dogs are 6-0 vs spread in Arizona games; Cards are 5-3 in last eight games as a road dog. Minnesota gave up total of 33 points in three consecutive wins, then goes to Washington and gives up 38 points to rookie QB in game where they outgained Skins by 60 yards, but did turn ball over three times. Vikings are 3-0 at home this year, winning by 3-11-23 points; they’re 2-4 vs spread in last six games as a home fave. NFC West non-divisional dogs are 9-1 vs spread, 5-1 on road; NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 4-3. Five of six Arizona games, four of last five Viking games stayed under total.

Browns (1-5) @ Colts (2-3)—Two rookie QBs and an interim coach in this game, good one to skip. Cleveland’s 27-19 win here LY was its first in six series games, with average total in last four meetings, 24.0; Browns are coming off first win of year, revenge win over Bengals where Cincy outgained them by 110 yards but turned ball over four times. Cleveland is 3-5-2 vs spread in game following its last 10 wins- they’re 0-3 on road, allowing 32.7 ppg in losses by 7-7-14 points. Indy is 2-3 with both wins by FG; they’re 2-1 at home, giving up 80-yard TD pass in last 2:00 in only loss. Browns need to make hay on ground; Indy allowed average of 192.7 rushing yards/game in last three games. Cleveland allowed 23+ points in each of last five games; Colts are 2-0 when they score 23+. AFC South teams are 2-2 as non-divisional favorite (they’ve been dog in 11 of 15 non-div games); AFC North teams are 3-3 as non-divisional underdogs.

Ravens (5-1) @ Texans (5-1)—Ravens won last two weeks by total of 5 points despite allowing 214-227 rushing yards, and having 10-yard deficits in field position in both games; Baltimore defense crippled with Webb/Lewis out for year, so expecting Ravens to become more of offense-driven team. Ravens won four games in row, with three of four wins by 3 or less points—underdogs covered their last five games. Houston got waxed in primetime Sunday night, as quality of opponent improved; since ’07, they’re 17-12-3 as home favorite. Since ’08, Ravens are 11-6-1 as road dogs. Texans are have never beaten (0-6) Baltimore, losing twice to them LY, including 20-13 in Charm City playoff game- Ravens are 3-0 here, winning by 4-28-6 points. Houston is 7-3 vs spread in pre-bye games; Ravens won three of their last four such games. Four of six Baltimore games, three of last four Texan games went over total.

Packers (3-3) @ Rams (3-3)—Third straight road game (historic weak spot) for Green Bay, which woke up bigtime last week and pounded Texans in primetime; defense had six takeaways (+6), after having total of five in first five games. Pack won last three series games by 19-19-21 points; this is huge upgrade in opposing QB for stout Ram defense, which faced three rookies/Kolb in first six games (Stafford/Cutler other two). Ram offense is awful in red zone (3.79 per trip, well below NFL average), and with shaky OL/Amendola out, they’re even worse, but St Louis is 3-0 at home, allowing 14.7 ppg- they’ve given up 11 ppg in last three games (three TD’s on 31 drives). Packers scored 28-27-42 points in last three games; they’re 1-2 on road, losing in Seattle/Indy by total of five points, but loss at Seattle was bogus. NFC West non-divisional home dogs are 4-0 vs spread; NFC North favorites are 4-7, 1-3 on road.
Cowboys (2-3) @ Panthers (1-4)—Dallas is 8-3 in this series, 4-2 here, with both losses in playoff games; Pokes won last four series games by average score of 25-18. Cowboys lost three of last four games, allowing 27-34-31 points (four TD’s on defense/special teams)- they’ve held foes to 17-10 points in wins. Carolina was held under 400 yards in three of five games; they scored 10-7-12 points in those games. Only one of five opponents (Bears, 360) gained more than 316 vs Dallas. Cam Newton hasn’t played as well this year; Panthers lost last two home games, scoring 9.5 ppg (1 TD/19 drives)- their only win was over dysfunctional Saints, but Carolina has won five of last seven post-bye games. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 2-8 vs spread, 0-4 on road; NFC South teams are 4-5 SU in non-divisional home games (favored in all nine). Garrett/ Romo combo under fire for shaky time management in last minute of LW’s loss at Baltimore- this is game they have to have.

Redskins (3-3) @ Giants (4-2)—Little bit of trap game for Big Blue, after convincing 49er win last week and with hated Cowboys on deck, but Redskins swept series (28-14/23-10) LY, after losing nine of previous ten series games, so Giants do have revenge motive of sorts. Redskins lost six of last eight visits here, but finally have franchise QB in rookie Griffin, whose offense has been held under 24 points in only one of six games- they’ve been plus in turnovers in five of six games (+9) and were even in 6th game. Skins won SU both times they’ve been favored this year, with no losses by more than seven points. Giants won four of last five games, covered last four- their last three wins are by 29-14-23 points. Big Blue is 1-2 as home favorite; road team covered five of their six games. Divisional favorites are 6-7 vs spread this season, 1-4 in NFC. Five of six Redskin games went over total; three of last four Giant games stayed under.

Saints (1-4) @ Buccaneers (2-3)—Saints are still scoring points; they’ve scored 24+ in all five games, but they’re not running ball well (83 or less yards in all four losses). Teams split season series last four years, going 2-2 in each park; Saints lost four of last six visits here. Bucs held three of five opponents to 16 or less points, but they also gave up 25 points in 4th quarter to Giants, and Brees’ offense is as explosive as that one. Tampa Bay allowed 10 points in both wins; 16-41-24 in losses- they should throw parade for Schiano if he holds NO to 10 points. Dogs covered four of five Buc games; Tampa is 2-1 at home, with only loss 24-22 to Redskins. Saints are 5-8 in last 13 tries as road favorite; they scored 27 points in both road games this year, but lost both anyway- they won/covered last three post-bye games, scoring 48-34-49 points, but those games were with Payton as coach, under normal circumstances. Four of five Saint games, three of last four Tampa Bay games went over total.

Jets (3-3) @ Patriots (3-3)—Way to beat the Patriots is thru air; they’ve allowed 7.2+ yards/pass attempt in each of last four games, one of only two teams (Titans) to do that. Brady was sub-par in red zone in Seattle, scoring one TD, three FG’s on six visits in 24-23 loss; NE averaged 3.79 pts/red zone drive in its three losses, 5.93 in wins—they’ll move ball between 20’s vs anyone. Jets are 6-8 as road dog under Ryan; they’ve allowed only one TD, three FGs in red zone last two games, after getting crushed 34-0 at home by 49ers. Since ’05, Patriots are 28-28-1 vs spread as home favorite, 9-12 in division games. Pats won 30-21/37-16 in LY’s meetings, also beat Tebow’s Broncos 41-23/45-10; after Sparano sprung Wildcat on NE and upset them in its debut, Patriots have learned to defend it. Last nine series games were decided by 9+ points; Jets lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 17-42-9 points, and win in ’10 playoffs. Last four New England games went over total.

Jaguars (1-4) @ Raiders (1-4)—Oakland hired Denver’s DC as its new head coach, so of course they stink on defense, allowing 31.5 ppg in last four games (14 TD’s on last 43 drives); since ’06, Raiders are 4-14 vs spread as home favorites, 0-1 this year- their only win was 34-31 upset of Steelers four weeks ago. In their history, Jags were underdog in only two of 17 post-bye games (9-8 SU), failing to cover either; they’ve played better on road this year, with both away games (1-1) coming down to last minute- they got smoked in all three home games. Jags are giving up average of 163 rushing yards/game, would expect Oakland to try and pound ball to take stress off defense. Jax won four of five series games, with only loss in first meeting (‘96); they’ve won two of three visits here, with average total in three games, 22.7. AFC South non-divisional road dogs are 1-4 against spread. Three of last four Jaguar games stayed under the total.

Steelers (2-3) @ Bengals (3-3)—Since 2006, Pitt is just 11-17-1 vs spread in games where line was 3 or less points; Cincy covered 11 of last 17 such games. Steelers won four in row, nine of last 11 series games, with average score in last four meetings, 27-13; they’ve won 10 of last 11 visits here, in what has been lopsided rivalry. Pitt has issues on OL; only once in its five games have they run ball for more than 75 yards. Steelers allowed 10-14 points in its two wins, 26+ in its three losses; they had three extra days to rest/prep here after damaging loss in Nashville last week. Bengals were 3-1, then lost to Miami/Browns last two weeks, turning ball over seven times; they’re now -7 in turnovers for season- if they don’t clean that up, this’ll be another long season. Cincy won three of last four pre-bye games, but since ’91, they’re 4-8 vs spread as underdog in pre-bye tilts. All three Steeler road games, and four of six Bengal games went over total.

Lions (2-3) @ Bears (4-1)—Chicago’s four wins are all by 16+ points; their only loss was on very short week at Lambeau. Bears are 2-0 as home favorites this year, beating lesser foes by 20-17 points- since ’05, they’re 8-6 as a divisional home favorite. Bears already have 17 takeaways this year (+9), trait of Smith’s better teams. Undisciplined Lions have allowed six TD’s on defense/special teams; they won at Philly last week despite being penalized 16 times for 132 yards. Three of five Detroit games were decided by 4 or less points, with two of last three going OT; dogs covered four of their five games. Chicago won seven of last eight series games, winning last four here by average score of 33-19; Lions ended long series skid with home win LY. Bears won five of last six post-bye games, including win as an 8-point dog LY. Bears are averaging 4.8 explosive (20+ yards) plays per game; Lions allowed a total of three in their last two games.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-19-12 12:58 AM
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CNOTES
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NFL

Week 7

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 18

8:20 PM
SEATTLE vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Seattle is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Seattle is 7-14-1 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
San Francisco is 17-5 SU in its last 22 games
San Francisco is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home


Sunday, October 21

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. NY GIANTS
Washington is 2-6 SU in their last 8 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Washington's last 9 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of the NY Giants last 9 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the NY Giants last 13 games

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. MINNESOTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games on the road
Arizona is 3-14 SU in its last 17 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
Minnesota is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games at home

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. TAMPA BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games
Tampa Bay is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. HOUSTON
Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Houston is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Cleveland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Indianapolis
Cleveland is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games at home
Indianapolis is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games at home

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. CAROLINA
Dallas is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 8 games
Carolina is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. BUFFALO
Tennessee is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Buffalo is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing at home against Tennessee

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. ST. LOUIS
Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Green Bay's last 8 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
The total has gone OVER in 6 of St. Louis's last 8 games when playing at home against Green Bay
St. Louis is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

4:15 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. OAKLAND
Jacksonville is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
Oakland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Oakland's last 12 games

4:15 PM
NY JETS vs. NEW ENGLAND
NY Jets are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing New England
NY Jets are 5-15 SU in their last 20 games when playing New England
New England is 18-4 SU in its last 22 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games when playing NY Jets

8:20 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CINCINNATI
Pittsburgh is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games
Cincinnati is 1-9-1 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 3-9-3 ATS in its last 15 games


Monday, October 22

8:30 PM
DETROIT vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Detroit is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chicago's last 8 games at home
Chicago is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Detroit




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-19-12 01:00 AM
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

NFL

Week 7

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Thursday Night Football: Seahawks at 49ers
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Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5, 37.5)

Week 7 kicks off Thursday night with a big NFC West showdown between the visiting Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers.

Seattle is coming off an unlikely 24-23 comeback victory at home over New England in which it scored 14 points over the final 7:21 of the fourth quarter. Rookie Russell Wilson upstaged a 395-yard passing performance from Tom Brady by throwing late touchdown passes to Braylon Edwards and Sidney Rice, the latter coming with 1:18 remaining.

San Francisco is hoping to bounce back from a dismal 26-3 home loss to the New York Giants. The 49ers, who outscored their opponents 79-3 in their previous two games, took the lead against New York before allowing 26 unanswered points. They are in danger of losing consecutive contests for the first time under coach Jim Harbaugh, who guided them to a 13-3 record last season - his first with the team.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: The 49ers opened as high as 9-point home favorites but have been bet down to -7 with action on the Seahawks. The total has also moved, going from 39.5 to 37.5 points.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for clear skies in the Bay Area, with temperatures in the mid 60s. Winds are expected to blow WSW at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS): Wilson was the first rookie quarterback in the NFL to overcome a 13-point deficit in the fourth quarter since Tennessee's Vince Young, who accomplished the feat in 2006 against the Giants. Wilson has defeated Brady, Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers and Dallas' Tony Romo already this season. Jon Ryan averaged 60.0 yards on four punts Sunday, becoming just the third punter in history to average at least 60 yards on a minimum of four punts and first since Detroit's Bob Cifers, who had a 61.75 average on Nov. 24, 1946. Running back Marshawn Lynch gained only 41 yards on the ground, his lowest total since running for 24 yards against Cincinnati on Week 8 last season.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS): Quarterback Alex Smith, who also was sacked four times, threw three interceptions in Sunday's loss to the Giants. It was the seventh time in his career and first since Dec. 20, 2009, against Philadelphia that the former No. 1 overall pick was picked off three times. Tackle Joe Staley left Sunday's game in the third quarter with a concussion. New York's Ahmad Bradshaw rushed for 116 yards, becoming the first opponent to eclipse the 100-yard mark in San Francisco in 22 games. He also recorded the first rushing touchdown allowed by the 49ers in 14 contests. After recording seven first downs in the opening quarter on Sunday, the 49ers notched a total of seven over the final three periods. Thursday's contest is San Francisco's first divisional game of the season.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Seahawks are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings in San Francisco.
* Seahawks are 18-37-2 ATS in their last 57 road games.
* 49ers are 21-8-3 ATS in their last 32 home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. 49ers WR Randy Moss became the fourth receiver in NFL history to reach the 15,000-yard mark, joining Jerry Rice (22,895), Terrell Owens (15,934) and Isaac Bruce (15,208). Moss enters Thursday with 15,032 yards.

2. Seattle's top-ranked defense allowed a season-high 475 yards Sunday. None of its first five opponents eclipsed 300 yards.

3. San Francisco K David Akers has kicked a field goal in a franchise-record 22 consecutive games.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-19-12 01:01 AM
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NFL

Thursday, October 18

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Seattle - 8:20 PM ET San Francisco -7.5 500

San Francisco - Under 37.5 500




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-19-12 01:07 AM
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Week 7 Tips

October 19, 2012

It has been a big season for the underdogs in the NFL, cashing at a 64% rate against the spread. Following last week’s 12-2 ATS run, many bettors are skeptical that this recent trend will continue heading into Week 7. The league seems to be more even than in years’ past, as only two teams in the AFC own winning records after six weeks (Ravens and Texans). Road favorites off a victory have struggled this season, owning a dreadful 5-15 ATS and 7-13 SU record, including SU/ATS losses by New England, Pittsburgh, and Minnesota last week.

All three clubs threw away a lead of seven points or more, including the Patriots squandering a 13-point advantage in the final quarter. Seattle rallied past New England with a pair of touchdowns in the final seven minutes of regulation to shock the Pats, 24-23 as 3 ½-point home ‘dogs. The Steelers overcame a six-point deficit to lead Tennessee, 23-16 in the fourth quarter, but the Titans came back with 10 unanswered points to beat Pittsburgh, 26-23. Minnesota grabbed an early 9-0 advantage at Washington, but the Redskins outscored the Vikings, 38-17 in the last three quarters to cash as one-point home ‘dogs.

We’ll take a look at the two teams in this potential ‘fade’ situation this week, the Packers and Saints. Green Bay heads to St. Louis, while New Orleans comes off the bye to battle Tampa Bay, as each team has failed to cash when laying points on the highway this season.

Packers (-5 ½, 45) at Rams – 1:00 PM EST

Green Bay rebounded from a disappointing loss at Indianapolis two weeks ago to beat Houston soundly as a road ‘dog last Sunday. The Pack attempts to break above the .500 mark with a victory over the Rams, who also sit at 3-3 through six games. The key for St. Louis is to slow down this powerful Green Bay offense, which lit up a solid Texans’ defense.

Aaron Rodgers tossed six touchdown passes as the Packers shredded the Texans, 42-24 as four-point road underdogs, handing Houston its first loss of the season. Green Bay covered only its second game in six tries, while doing so in its first underdog opportunity of 2012. The offense is finally clicking following a slow start the first three weeks, as the Packers have eclipsed the 27-point mark in each of the last three contests, while cashing the ‘over’ three straight times.

The Rams were held to below 19 points for the fourth consecutive game last Sunday in a 17-14 defeat at Miami, but St. Louis managed to cash as five-point ‘dogs. St. Louis heads into this week’s action with a sizzling 5-1 ATS record, including a 3-0 SU/ATS mark at Edward Jones Dome (all as an underdog). The key for St. Louis’ success at home is limiting its last two opponents (Arizona and Seattle) to 16 points combined. However, both the Cardinals and Seahawks rank in the bottom seven of the league in points scored, while the Packers are averaging 25.7 ppg (10th in NFL).

The Packers have actually profited when laying points on the highway in the Mike McCarthy era, posting a 16-13 ATS ledger. However, two of those losses came this season at Seattle and Indianapolis, both games decided in the final minute of play.

Saints (-2 ½, 49 ½) at Buccaneers - 1:00 PM EST

New Orleans is fresh off the bye, going for its first two-game winning streak of the season after rallying past San Diego in Week 5 at home. The Saints head to Tampa Bay, who goes for its third home victory of the season in four tries following a blowout of a dysfunctional Kansas City squad last Sunday.

The Bucs were a missed field goal away from being a perfect 3-0 at home, as Greg Schiano's club has cashed in all three opportunities in the underdog role this season. Granted, two of those ATS victories came in road losses to the Giants and Cowboys as 'dogs of a touchdown or more, but Tampa Bay has allowed 24 points or less in four of five games this season. Since Jon Gruden departed as head coach, the Bucs have covered only four of 10 home games against division opponents, as one of those wins came against the Saints last season as a 6 ½-point 'dogs.

The Saints aren't the best team to back in the road favorite role since 2010, cashing five of 15 times. One of those losses came at Carolina in Week 2, falling as a three-point favorite, 35-27, while posting a 1-3 ATS record when laying points this season. New Orleans can point to its defense for a majority of its problems in 2012, giving up 24 points in each of its five games, as the 'over' sits at 4-1. However, each of the last seven meetings between the Saints and Bucs have hit the 'under.'




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-21-12 06:43 AM
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Total Talk - Week 7

October 20, 2012

Week 6 Recap

The 2012 NFL season has been all about the underdogs when it comes to sides but totals haven’t seen a strong lean either way. Despite watching the ‘over’ go 9-4-1 last week, the ‘over’ barely holds a slight edge (46-44-1) on the season. And if it wasn’t for plenty of second-half explosions this season, the ‘under’ would be ahead. Last week, total players saw two ‘under’ tickets get burned in the final two quarters.

The Buccaneers led the Chiefs 7-3 at halftime but the two teams combined for 38 points in the second and two of the scores were defensive touchdowns. Take away those points and the game goes ‘under’ the closing total of 38.

Even though Philadelphia and Detroit combined for 11 scores (7 FGs), the Eagles only led 7-6 at halftime over the Lions and only six points were posted in the third quarter. Fortunately for ‘over’ bettors, a couple big plays and key kicks sent the game into overtime and the combined 49 points barely slipped ‘over’ the total of 46 ½.

Total System Play

Readers following this column over the years on a regular basis are well aware of the “Total Tip – Three Straight on the Road” system. The angle calls for gamblers to play the ‘over’ for any team that is playing their third consecutive game on the road. Even though the system went 4-3 (57%) in 2011, the system has gone 31-15-2 (67%) over the last eight seasons. This year, the system only comes into play twice and the first matchup goes this weekend.

Green Bay at St. Louis: The Packers will be playing their third straight road game this Sunday when it visits St. Louis. Green Bay has watched the ‘over’ cash in each of the last two games but the Rams have seen the ‘under’ cash in four consecutive outings. The number opened at 44 and jumped to 45 quickly. Most would expect the Packers to get a minimum of four scores in this spot, especially after watching them drop 42 on a solid Houston defense last week. However, can the Rams help the cause? It’s hard to answer yes when you realize that St. Louis has 15 field goals and only eight offensive touchdowns.

Clear-Cut Under?

Two other teams in the NFL that have more field goals than offensive touchdowns are Arizona and Minnesota. Should we be surprised that the Vikings (4-2) and Cardinals (5-1) have a combined ‘under’ record of 9-3? This week, the two teams meet indoors from the Metrodome and the total is hovering around 40 points. Minnesota allowed 38 points to Washington last week but 14 came from a defensive touchdown and a busted run by quarterback RG3. The Cardinals have only scored a combined 23 points in two road games and the Vikings have only given up 23, 13 and 7 in three home games. It’s a low number but it’s low for a good reason too.

Line Moves

The smart money went 0-2-1 with their total moves in Week 6. Below are the Week 7 totals that have been adjusted by 1 ½ points or more at CRIS as of Saturday night.

Baltimore at Houston: Line opened at 47 and jumped to 48 ½
Washington at N.Y. Giants: Line opened at 49 and jumped to 51
Jacksonville at Oakland: Line opened 42 ½ and jumped to 44

Divisional Battles

Washington at N.Y. Giants: Highest total (51) on the board here and you could be scratching your head based on recent history. The ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in the last four, plus the combined points have never been higher than 42. Things have certainly changed this season! The Redskins (5-1) are a clear-cut ‘over’ team behind a solid offense (30.7 PPG) and weak defense (28.3 PPG). New York has both a better offense (33 PPG) and defense (19 PPG). However, the Giants have surrendered 24, 34 and 27 points in their three home games.

N.Y. Jets at New England: All signs point to an ‘over’ look here, even though the total is 47 ½ points. The Patriots have put up 30-plus points in four of their six games. The ‘over’ has gone 4-2 for New England. The Jets have busted 20-points three times this season but those instances came against teams with losing records. Against quality clubs (including Pittsburgh), the Jets have scored 10, 0 and 17 points. The ‘over’ has gone 5-0 in the last five meetings in this series.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: The Steelers (3-2) and Bengals (4-2) have both leaned to the ‘over’ this season and that’s probably why gamblers are staring at a total of 45. These teams haven’t seen an ‘over/under’ this high since they met in October of 2007 (48). Pittsburgh’s defense is normally considered stout but the unit has allowed 31, 34 and 26 on the road, all three easy ‘over’ tickets.

Under the Lights

For the first time all season, gamblers saw all three primetime games go ‘over’ the number. The Titans-Steelers matchup on Thursday started fast and slowed down but a 20-point fourth quarter helped the ‘over’ cash. Overall, the ‘under’ stands at 13-7 on the season in games played in primetime spots and that includes this past Thursday’s game between Seattle and San Francisco.

Fearless Predictions

We took a couple steps backwards last week with our straight bets and teaser but were fortunate to hit the team total wager. Despite losing $220, we’re up $130 after five weeks and looking to add to the bankroll this weekend. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end - Good Luck!

Best Over: Green Bay-St. Louis 44 1/2

Best Under: Cleveland-Indianapolis 46

Best Team Total: Under New York Jets 18 1/2

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Over 35 1/2 Green Bay-St. Louis
Over 42 Washington-New York Giants
Under 54 1/2 Pittsburgh-Cincinnati




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-21-12 06:48 AM
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Gridiron Angles - Week 7

October 20, 2012

NFL ATS TREND:

-- The Buccaneers are 11-0 ATS (14.3 ppg) since December 06, 1999 as a dog when they covered by 10+ points last week against a non-divisional opponent.

NFL OU TREND:

-- The Browns are 0-10 OU (-13.2 ppg) since November 25, 2007 after a game where they covered despite allowing more points than expected.

NCAA ATS PLAY ON TREND:

-- Oklahoma is 12-0-2 ATS (11.4 ppg) since 2003 when facing a team they allowed between 14 and 17 points to last meeting and scored less than 58.

NCAA ATS PLAY AGAINST TREND:

-- Army is 0-13 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since November 2003 in the regular season when they allowed between 30 and 35 points last game and have at least two losses on the year.

NFL SUPER SYSTEM OF THE WEEK:

-- Teams which faced at least 40 rushes their past two games are 64-38-3 (62.7%). Active on Baltimore vs. Houston.

NFL BIBLE TREND OF THE WEEK:

-- The Cowboys are 17-0 OU (+11.3 ppg) since December 18th, 2005 when they are off a game vs an AFC opponent in which they scored more than 20 points, as long as they did not lose the game by two-plus TDs.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-21-12 06:51 AM
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Las Vegas Money Moves

October 19, 2012

The Seattle Seahawks seem to be involved in every dicey situation Las Vegas sports books have had to deal with this season. In Week 3, we had the questionable touchdown call against the Packers that gave the Seahawks the win and cover, while Thursday night we had a Seahawks safety smartly declined by 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh.

Two additional points for the 49ers would have meant instead of being a 13-6 score, and a non-cover, it would have been 15-6 with almost everyone covering.

The funny part about all of this is that bettors could have had at least a push in the Thursday night game laying the 49ers if they would have made a bet prior to Thursday. The game had been up on the board since Sunday night, and was -7 through Wednesday. 7.5’s didn’t start popping up until Thursday morning.

Once it was clear that the public was still betting the 49ers on game day at 7 ½, it didn’t take long for bookmakers like Jay Kornegay at the LVH Super Book to bypass the dead number of 8 and go right to 8.5.

So yeah, it was a bad beat, but if you lost on the 49ers laying 7 ½, you were late to the party, and if you made a straight bet at -7 ½, you should have paid the extra .10 cents and erased the hook. And I’m not just saying that now after the fact. Seven lands the second most time out of any margin of victory in the NFL at a 9.6 percent clip over the past five seasons.

When dealing with three -- the most common margin of victory (14.5%), most sports books won’t allow you to buy off it because it’s so key. So being able to buy a half off such a key number like seven for only .10 cents is pretty good value.

And really, was the decision that bad of a beat? It would have taken a bad beat to make a 49ers bet a winner. What about the Seahawks bettors who had the right side all game? The 49ers weren’t even covering in this game at any juncture and were outplayed.

If anything, your prayer to the cover Gods was heard, and almost fulfilled, but at the last second, even they thought a cover like a safety in a game with less than minute remaining, where the team favored by 8.5 is winning 13-6 was too much of a miracle to make happen.

The end result in Vegas wasn’t that big of a deal, not even close to exaggerated reports that surfaced in Week 3 when some 'experts' reported that $15 million changed hands as a result of the bad call on the Packers-Seahawks.

Most of the bets from the week were a push with the Thursday 49ers money losing. Sports books on the strip aren’t full like they will be on the weekend, and didn’t take a lot of action. Most of all, the game stayed UNDER the total which was good for the books.

Here’s a look at some of the moves from Week 7:

-- The game of the week looks to be the Jets at the Patriots, just because Rex Ryan does all the promoting like Don King with all his wild predictions. He did say the Jets would beat the Patriots, but what’s new? He says it all the time and he’s been right three of the seven games they’ve played. But Las Vegas isn’t buying the hype and opened Ryan as 12-point underdogs, the highest number ever placed on his Jets while being the coach. Sharp money bet the game down to 10.5, while small money has bet the Patriots with whatever line was available. The Mirage had the lowest number at -10 on Thursday, but are back up to -10 ½.

-- The Bills opened as 3-point home favorites against the Titans and have been bet up -3 ½ (-120), mostly because the Titans have been so bad on the road this season.

-- The Vikings were initially 4 ½-point home favorites against the Cardinals, but the combination of Kevin Kolb being out and the Vikings impressing bettors this season has moved the line up to 6 ½.

-- The Browns were getting +3 on the road at Indianapolis, but it didn’t last long as bettors jumped on the key number of three and took the points. The Colts are currently -2 ½ (EV).

-- The Texans moved from an opener of -5 at home to -6 ½ against the Ravens, who will be without Ray Lewis. The bigger blow to the Ravens is losing defensive back Ladarius Webb.

-- The Packers have remained 5 ½-point road favorites at St. Louis with lots of respect given to the Rams, who are 3-0 straight-up at home this season as an underdog.

-- The Cowboys were initially Pick ’em at Carolina, but the line quickly moved to Cowboys -2 ½.

-- The Redskins beat the Giants in both games last season, which may be why bettors found the Redskins +7 so attractive and pushed the game down to 6.

-- The Raiders opened as 4 ½-point home favorites against the Jaguars and are currently -4.

-- The Steelers opened -2 ½ at Cincinnati and have been moved to -1 ½. Ben Roethlisberger injured his ankle in practice, but what’s new, that thing has been injured for five years.

The sports books have the potential of getting beat up pretty good this week because there are only two afternoon games, with one them being the perennial public favorite New England Patriots. With less options in the afternoon, that game takes on more of a Sunday or Monday night appeal where almost every dollar bet in the afternoon will be wagered on that game. Patriots to the OVER will have the same bad affect as an isolated night game.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-21-12 06:55 AM
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Sunday's NFL Best Bets !!

NFL

Sunday, October 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Washington - 1:00 PM ET Washington +6.5 500
N.Y. Giants - Under 51.5 500

Arizona - 1:00 PM ET Minnesota -7 500
Minnesota - Under 40 500

Dallas - 1:00 PM ET Dallas -1 500
Carolina - Under 45 500

New Orleans - 1:00 PM ET Tampa Bay +1 500
Tampa Bay - Over 49.5 500

Green Bay - 1:00 PM ET St. Louis +4.5 500
St. Louis - Over 45 500

Baltimore - 1:00 PM ET Baltimore +7 500
Houston - Over 48 500

Cleveland - 1:00 PM ET Indianapolis -1 500
Indianapolis - Over 46.5 500

Tennessee - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo -4 500 AFC GOM
Buffalo - Under 46.5 500

N.Y. Jets - 4:25 PM ET N.Y. Jets +10.5 500
New England - Under 47 500

Jacksonville - 4:25 PM ET Oakland -6 500
Oakland - Under 44 500


Check Later For Sunday Night Football Pick & MLB Pick...

GOOD LUCK !




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-21-12 06:13 PM
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Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans
Open: Houston -4
Move: Houston -6.5

This one is all about Baltimore’s glut of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. As soon as the news broke that LB Ray Lewis and CB Lardarius Webb were cooked for the year, says Teddy, “a trickle of Texas money turned into a flood on Monday” as bettors almost completely ignored Houston’s inept performance against the Packers (42-24 loss). Texan backers figure that it will take a while for the Ravens to sort things out, though Terrell Suggs says he hopes to be in the lineup this Sunday.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants
Open: Giants -7
Move: Giants -5.5

Teddy is following the money, and speculates that there is a group of sharps betting against the Giants every week. “We’ve seen money [this week] against New York, just like last week when money poured in on San Francisco. And the week before when money came in on Cleveland. And two weeks before that on Carolina.” The Covers Expert also says that some bettors feel like NY is in for a letdown after its cross-country road win at San Francisco. “I’m not buying that, though,” he says. “Washington is a division opponent that swept the Giants last year.”




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Old Post 10-21-12 06:16 PM
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NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 7

Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Here are our quick-hitting notes on all of Week 7's action.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-5.5, 50.5)

Rookies Albert Morris and Robert Griffin III have Washington ranked No. 2 in the NFL in rushing, averaging 166.0 yards. However, The Redskins rank last in the league in pass defense, allowing an average of 328.3 yards per game through the air. The stop unit has yet to hold an opponent under 22 points and may be without S Jordan Pugh (concussion) this week. The Giants defense came up huge in the 26-3 upset over San Francisco last week, intercepting Alex Smith three times, while sacking the QB six times. New York is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four games overall.

Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-6, 40)

John Skelton returns to his role as starting QB this week after Kevin Kolb sustained a rib injury in Arizona's 19-16 overtime loss to Buffalo last week. The Vikings were allowing only 15.5 points per game before getting thrashed 38-26 by the Redskins in Week 7. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

Dallas Cowboys at Carolina Panthers (1, 45.5)

Dallas is looking to rebound from a 31-29 loss at Baltimore in which Dan Bailey missed a 51-yard field goal with two seconds left. The Cowboys also lost RB DeMarco Murray to a foot injury last week. Felix Jones could get the majority of the carries, with Murray missing practice on both Wednesday and Thursday. The Panthers are coming off a bye week and have dropped eight consecutive meetings with Dallas. Carolina is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. a team with a losing record.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1, 49.5)

The Saints could get a big boost on defense with the return of LB Jonathan Vilma, who is getting a one-week reprieve from the bounty scandal before the commissioner rules on the appeal of his suspension. The news isn’t as good on offense as tight end Jimmy Graham is questionable with an ankle injury. Quarterback Josh Freeman and the Bucs set season highs with 145 yards rushing and 318 yards passing in last week’s win 38-10 over Kansas City. Freeman has flourished after a dismal start, completing 60 percent of his passes for 627 yards with four TDs and two picks in his last two games. The teams have played under the total in seven consecutive meetings.

Green Bay Packers at St. Louis Rams (5, 45.5)

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers made a loud statement last week to those predicting the team's demise, dominating the previously unbeaten Houston Texans behind six touchdown passes from the league's reigning MVP. The Rams are coming off a three-point loss in Miami but they have already surpassed last season's victory total behind a defense that has surrendered only 33 points in the last three weeks. The Packers beat the Rams 24-3 last season and have won the last three meetings by a combined 93-34 margin. The favorite is 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (-6.5, 48)

Baltimore begins life without LB Ray Lewis (triceps) and CB Lardarius Webb (ACL), but reports are surfacing that reigning Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs (Achilles) has an outside chance at suiting up Sunday. The Texans’ sixth-ranked rushing attack was stuck in neutral and their defense was gashed for six touchdowns by Aaron Rodgers in a 42-24 loss to Green Bay last Sunday night. Arian Foster, the league’s second-leading rusher (561 yards), was held to 29 yards on 17 carries with a pair of 1-yard touchdown runs. The road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts (-1, 45)

Cleveland stopped a franchise record-tying 11-game skid with a 34-24 victory over Cincinnati last week as rookie QB Brandon Weeden threw a pair of touchdown passes and CB Sheldon Brown returned an interception 19 yards for a score. The win was the first since Nov. 20 for the Browns, who enter Week 7 having lost 10 straight road games. Indianapolis showed little fight in a 35-9 loss at New York. The Colts allowed a season-high 252 rushing yards and lost defensive end Cory Redding with a right knee injury. The road team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 46)

Buffalo went into Arizona and surprised the Cardinals in overtime last week, rebounding from back-to-back maulings in which the team was outscored 97-31. The Titans also bounced back from a pair of lopsided defeats in beating the Steelers. Tennessee has won four straight and seven of eight meetings with the Bills, including a 23-17 victory at Buffalo last December. The Titans and Bills rank 1-2 in the league in most points allowed with 204 and 192, respectively. The over is 4-0 in Buffalo’s last four games overall.

New York Jets at New England (-10, 47)

The Jets ended a two-game skid by returning to their “Ground-and-Pound” ways against the overmatched Colts last week, as Shonn Greene ran for a career-best 161 yards and three touchdowns on 32 carries in a 35-9 win. Tom Brady and company are fuming mad after blowing a 13-point fourth-quarter lead in a stunning 24-23 defeat to Seattle – a loss that sent them to their worst start in seven years. The over is 5-0-1 in their last six meetings.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-4, 43.5)

Jacksonville has the worst offense in the NFL at 13.0 points per game and is averaging 241.2 yards. Quarterback Blaine Gabbert leads the league's worst passing offense (142.8 yards) and his completion percentage of 54.8 is 31st. While Oakland's rushing attack is 29th in the NFL at 78.4 yards per game, a healthy Darren McFadden against Jacksonville's suspect defense could improve those numbers. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (1, 45.5)

The last thing the Pittsburgh Steelers need is another injury, but they got one when QB Ben Roethlisberger turned his right ankle in practice Thursday. Roethlisberger, though, will play when the Steelers try for their fifth straight victory over the Bengals on Sunday. The Bengals have hurt themselves with a minus-7 turnover margin, including minus-4 in the last two games. Cincinnati has salvaged just two wins in its last 11 meetings with Pittsburgh. The Steelers are 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 games in Cincinnati.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-21-12 06:17 PM
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NFL

Week 7

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ravens at Texans: What bettors need to know
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (-7, 48)

The Baltimore Ravens’ defense has carried the team for years. Now, more than ever, it’s time for Joe Flacco and the offense to lead the way. Baltimore’s already hamstrung defense will be missing emotional leader Ray Lewis and top cornerback Lardarius Webb - both out for the season - when the Ravens head to Houston to face the Texans, who are looking to rebound from their first loss. The Texans’ sixth-ranked rushing attack was stuck in neutral and their defense was gashed for six touchdowns by Aaron Rodgers in a 42-24 loss to Green Bay last Sunday night.

Baltimore may have had an even worse week, even though it ran its winning streak to four games. The Ravens allowed 481 yards, including a franchise-record 227 rushing yards, in a 31-29 win over Dallas – a game in which Lewis tore his biceps and Webb suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament. The teams faced off in the divisional playoffs last season, with the Ravens beating the Matt Schaub-less Texans 20-13 to improve to 6-0 against Houston. Webb intercepted T.J. Yates twice in that contest.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Texans -7, O/U 48

ABOUT THE RAVENS (5-1): Flacco, an impending free agent, has been pining for a new contract and now is the time to prove his worth. After going a modest 17-of-26 for 234 yards and a touchdown against the league’s top-ranked pass defense, he gets another stern test against the Texans’ seventh-ranked pass defense (213.2 ypg). It will be interesting to see how much Baltimore uses its no-huddle offense considering it forces the injury-ravaged defense to be on the field more than usual. That unit has struggled to generate a pass rush (its 11 sacks ranks 23rd) minus reigning Defensive Player of the Year Terrell Suggs, (Achilles) and is 26th against the run (136.5). Therefore, Baltimore needs an offense that is averaging 26.8 points to continue to play well. They’ll continue to lean on RB Ray Rice, who is second in the league in yards from scrimmage (715), and play-making WR Torrey Smith, who ranks fourth in the league in yards per reception (18.8).

ABOUT THE TEXANS (5-1): Houston received a mulligan after running into a desperate and angry Green Bay team last week. The Texans' first order of business will be re-establishing their dominant rushing attack after Arian Foster, the league’s second-leading rusher (561 yards), was held to 29 yards on 17 carries with a pair of 1-yard touchdown runs. Meanwhile, the defense, which is without LB Brian Cushing (torn ACL), still leads the AFC in scoring (19.2) despite the hiccup against Green Bay. Leading Defensive Player of the Year candidate J.J Watt was the lone bright spot in the loss, racking up two more sacks to push his league-leading total to 9.5. Watt has also batted down a league-best eight passes at the line of scrimmage.

TRENDS:

* Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Texans are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-1 in Texans’ last five home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The 37-year-old Lewis missed four games last season with a toe injury and the Ravens went 4-0 in his absence.

2. Suggs, who reportedly suffered the injury playing pickup basketball in the offseason, was activated from the physically unable to perform list and returned to practice Wednesday. The team anticipated a return around November, but reports have surfaced that Suggs plans to plan Sunday.

3. Foster ran for 132 yards and a touchdown in the playoff loss to Baltimore, making him the only player to rush for 100 yards against the Ravens in the postseason.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-21-12 06:20 PM
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CNOTES
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NFL

Week 7

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Jets at Patriots: What bettors need to know
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New York Jets at New England Patriots (-10.5, 47)

Despite all of the "Sky is Falling" talk, Rex Ryan's New York Jets find themselves in a four-way tie atop the AFC East as they renew their rivalry with Tom Brady and the shellshocked New England Patriots on Sunday in Foxborough. The Jets ended a two-game skid by returning to their ground-and-pound ways against the overmatched Indianapolis Colts last week as Shonn Greene ran for a career-best 161 yards and three touchdowns in a 35-9 win.

That strategy has quieted some of the Mark Sanchez-Tim Tebow controversy for the moment, but the Jets will likely have to throw the ball more than 18 times to keep up with the Patriots’ top-ranked offense. Especially since Brady and company are fuming after blowing a 13-point fourth-quarter lead in a stunning 24-23 defeat to Seattle – a loss that sent them to their worst start in seven years. History says Brady's bunch will bounce back against the Jets. The Patriots have won two straight and 15 of the last 20 meetings, including the last three regular-season meetings by a combined score of 112-40. Brady threw for 329 yards and three touchdowns – two to All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski - in a 37-16 romp in New Jersey last season.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Patriots -10.5, O/U 47.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light out of the west.

ABOUT THE JETS (3-3): Ryan is trash-talking once again after the Jets bludgeoned the rebuilding Colts. He said of the Patriots: “I want them to know, and they know, that I think we’re going to beat them.” In order to back up Ryan’s words, the Jets need another big game from Greene, who had been averaging 2.7 yards over the previous four contests. And with Bilal Powell (shoulder) and Joe McKnight (high ankle sprain) both out, he’ll be the workhorse against the NFL’s sixth-ranked rush defense (82.7 ypg). Sanchez will have to throw for more than 82 yards. The embattled fourth-year quarterback has the worst completion percentage (49.7) in the league, which has led to some cameo appearances from Tebow.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (3-3): The 3,000-plus mile plane ride back from Seattle must have felt longer than the line at Starbucks after the Patriots let a 23-10 lead slip away in the final 7:31. The defense, which let Sidney Rice get behind it for the winning 46-yard touchdown, is largely to blame, but Brady was not absolved of guilt. He threw two touchdowns but was intercepted twice – once in the end zone – and also had a costly intentional-grounding penalty in the red zone at the end of the first half. Brady finished 36-of-58 (a career high in attempts) for 395 yards. He was forced to throw an inordinate amount because the Patriots, who entered third in the league averaging 165.4 rushing yards, were held to 87 yards on the ground. New England, which welcomed back TE Aaron Hernandez from a month-long absence last week, is still averaging a league-best 31.3 points and 445.3 yards.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Patriots are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven Week 7 games.
* Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last four October games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Since 2009, the Patriots have lost seven games in which they led with less than five minutes remaining in regulation - tied for third most in the NFL.

2. The Jets’ defense, which is ranked 30th in third-down conversion rate (46.0), will face its toughest test since star CB Darrelle Revis (torn ACL) went down three weeks ago.

3. The Patriots announced on Twitter that the team will wear the popular throwback red uniforms, circa 1992, featuring the helmet logo of “Patriot Pat” snapping a football.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-21-12 06:22 PM
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CNOTES
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Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

NFL weather watch: Pleasant conditions expected Sunday

Find out if weather will impact your wagers in Week 7 of the NFL season:

Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 46.5)

Site: Ralph Wilson Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow from the west at 14 mph.

Washington Redskins at New York Giants (-6, 51)

Site: MetLife Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s under sunny skies. Winds will blow out of the west at 12 mph.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-10.5, 47.5)

Site: Gillette Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s under clear skies. Westerly winds are expected to blow at 12 mph.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders (-6, 43.5)

Site: O. co Coliseum

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-60s under partly cloudy skies with an increasing chance of a shower in the late afternoon hours. Winds will blow out of the west at 11 mph




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-21-12 06:24 PM
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

Sunday Night NFL Best Bets:


Pittsburgh - 8:20 PM ET Cincinnati +1 500

Cincinnati - Under 45.5 500




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-22-12 01:31 AM
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

Sunday Night NFL Best Bets:


Pittsburgh - 8:20 PM ET Cincinnati +1 500

Cincinnati - Under 45.5 500




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-22-12 01:31 AM
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CNOTES
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Feb 2006
Posts: 10543

NFL

Week 7

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Tale of the tape: Lions at Bears
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Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Monday night’s showdown between the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears.

Offense

The Lions are coming off a 26-23 overtime triumph in Philadelphia. Detroit scored 10 points in the final 3:32 of regulation and Jason Hanson kicked his fourth field goal of the game from 45 yards out to complete the comeback. Quarterback Matthew Stafford is seeking his third consecutive game with 300 yards passing after racking up 311 yards in the air last week. Joique Bell is second among NFC running backs with 178 yards receiving.

Quarterback Jay Cutler is 5-1 as a Bears starter against the Lions and has a career 105.0 passer rating against them in seven starts overall - his best passer rating against any opponent with a minimum of four starts. Offensive coordinator Mike Tice has gone on the record saying the team plans to pick up the tempo, with its own version of a no-huddle offense this week against Detroit. Chicago has outscored its opponents 98-27 over its last three contests.

Edge: Bears


Defense

Lions S Louis Delmas and CB Chris Houston each had an interception in last week's victory - Detroit’s first two picks of the season. The Lions are allowing 3.7 yards per carry - 10th in the league – and may have their hands full with Matt Forte. The Pro Bowl back has ran all over the Lions in his last eight games in the series, compiling 975 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns.

The Bears are the first team in NFL history to return an interception for a touchdown five times in their first five games. CB Charles Tillman and LB Lance Briggs have both brought back an interception for a score in each of Chicago's last two contests. The Bears have returned an interception for a score in a franchise-high three consecutive contests and DE Julius Peppers has registered 10 sacks in his last eight meetings with the Lions.

Edge: Bears


Special teams

Detroit K Jason Hanson was named NFC Special Teams Player of the Week after nailing all four of his field goals, including the game-winner, in last Sunday's victory over Philadelphia. The 42-year-old has made 16 of 17 field goals, including his last 12 attempts this year. The Lions have struggled to cover the opposition on special teams this season. Opponents are averaging 19.6 yards per punt return and 30.3 per kickoff returns.

The Bears have listed their top special teams tackler, CB Sherrick McManis, as questionable for Monday night due to a hip strain he suffered in the team's Week 5 win over the Jaguars. Return man Devin Hester (quad) and LB Blake Costanzo (thumb) are listed as probable on the official injury report, which is great news for Chicago.

Edge: Bears


Word on the street

"I think teams are doing everything they can to take him away. Anytime we get inside about the 10-yard line, they’re ... rolling guys over the top -- whatever they’re doing to try and keep him out of the end zone. We just have to do a better job of finding other guys and other guys making plays, and me putting it on other guys to get sevens.” – Lions QB Matthew Stafford on how opposing defenses are attempting to contain WR Calvin Johnson and how he needs to adjust.

“We didn’t spend our bye week working on Monday night’s game. We didn’t start that until this week. We spent our time working on things that we feel like we need to improve on, looked at some things that we’d want to try to get to but we haven’t gotten to yet and then talked about things we need to throw out because we weren’t doing very well. Most teams do that during the bye week, I think.” – Bears offensive coordinator Mike Tice on the how the team used their practice time during the bye week.




Believe in the 3 G's
GIRLS, GOLF,GAMBLING not in any particular order.

Old Post 10-23-12 01:21 AM
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