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Barcelona look to extend their lead at the top of the table when they take on Real Betis in Seville.

They have been on a roll out of the World Cup break, going unbeaten in eight straight matches. They currently have a five-point cushion between them and Real Madrid, but dropping points on Wednesday will open the door for Madrid to make up that gap, as they play on Thursday.

Barcelona have a difficult stretch ahead of them as well with Sevilla, Villarreal and then Manchester United in the Europa League.

Real Betis are currently sitting in sixth place in the La Liga table, just three points off Atletico Madrid for a spot in the top four. Betis played Barcelona as recently as January 12th in the Super Copa de España, and they actually took them all the way to penalties, but ended up losing in the end.

Real Betis are actually one of the most overrated teams in La Liga, particularly on the defensive end. So far this season, they have only conceded 14 goals off of 21.2 expected, which actually ranks in the bottom half of the table.

If you are going to cause Barcelona problems, like Girona did over the weekend, you have to be a good pressing team that can disrupt them in build-up play. Real Betis are not that type of team.

They are currently 15th in La Liga in PPDA, 10th in opponent build-up completion percentage and 16th in high turnovers. What is even more puzzling about their defense is you would think if they’re not a big pressing team that they would be well-drilled at staying compact and defending their penalty area, but they’re not.

Real Betis have been a tad underrated offensively, given they’ve scored 18 goals off of 22.4 xG, but they’re still only averaging 1.07 npxG per 90 minutes, rank 15th in shots per 90 minutes and are only averaging 5.67 passes completed into the penalty area per 90 minutes, which is 15th in La Liga.

Barcelona have been flying under Xavi this season in La Liga and have some of the most impressive underlying metrics in all of Europe. They currently have a +1.25 xGD per 90 minutes mark in Spain, which is the second best number in Europe’s top five leagues, only short of Manchester City.

What Barcelona have done such a good job of is putting a stranglehold on possession, and when they do lose the ball, they counter-press at an elite level to ensure teams aren’t able to easily build out of the back against them.

Barcelona are averaging 64.5% possession, 19.5 10+ pass sequences per 90 minutes, 76.6 progressive passes + dribbles per 90 minutes, 12.2 passes into the penalty area per 90 and 31.9 touches in the penalty area per 90. All of those are the best mark in La Liga, per fbref.com.

In the last meeting between these two, Barcelona had a whopping 30 10+ pass sequences and an xThreat of 2.26, so I am not really sure what is going to change this time around.

In over 120 minutes of action, Real Betis didn’t do much in the previous meeting against Barcelona. The biggest stat from that match is Barcelona had a 90.6% build up completion percentage, which goes to show how little resistance Real Betis was applying.

These two combined for an xThreat of 4.03 in the last meeting, but neither could really turn that into high quality chances, as only 2.23 xG were created. If both teams are able to threaten the penalty area like that again, I have no doubt that they will create better chances than the previous meeting, where four goals were still scored.

Real Madrid dropped a crucial two points on Sunday in the La Liga title race via their goalless home draw with Real Sociedad. The gap between them and Barcelona is now eight points, but Real Madrid has a game in hand — Thursday’s home contest against Valencia.

La Liga hits the halfway point for the season’s two European giants and Real Madrid is in danger of falling too far behind to catch them in the second half of the season. Valencia will come into this match with a new manager after it sacked Gennaro Gattuso, sitting just one point above the relegation zone.

However, the performances didn’t match up with the results. Gattuso was more the subject of poor finishing variance at both ends of the pitch. These two sides met in the Spanish Super Cup at a neutral site and the game was highly competitive and went to penalties three weeks ago.

The market has steamed heavily toward Real Madrid since Gattuso’s firing, but Valencia are a major buy low in this matchup and at this number.

As good as Vinicius Junior, Karim Benzema and the surrounding talent is at Real Madrid, there are cracks in this side. Transition defense has some holes, the defense lets too many teams into their penalty area and they remain a prime regression candidate from a finishing standpoint. It’s not that Real Madrid aren’t one of the best teams in Europe, but the market consistently inflates them.

Madrid haven’t been all that impressive when facing the upper middle class of teams in La Liga. The defense conceded 3 xG to Villarreal, played even with Athletic Bilbao, barely cleared 1 xG against Sociedad and got steamrolled by Barcelona in the Super Cup final.

When they played Valencia in the semifinal, the total shots were 16-12 in favor of Real Madrid. Valencia won more tackles, had more interceptions and completed more crosses than Real Madrid. Valencia were able to deny easy access into their penalty area, which they have been efficient at doing all season.

The cracks appear in this Real Madrid defense — Madrid are eighth in touches allowed in their own box and 10th in passes allowed into the penalty area. Neither of those are good enough for a team that wants to dominate games and get margin to cover these inflated spreads.

Just two points separate 12th from 18th in La Liga, so there’s building uneasiness amongst the teams in that mix that ultimately cost Gattuso his job.

It’s a classic example of a manager getting fired because the results went bad despite perfectly fine underlying performances. Valencia had a below average xG difference per 90 last season and finished the season comfortably in the mid table.

This year, the underlying numbers improved on the margins but the recent spell of poor form and a bunch of close losses cost him. This team is elite at preventing ball progression and that’s a major key any time you go up in class against one of the top teams in La Liga. Valencia are first defensively in passes and crosses allowed into their own area.

They’ve been both unlucky and below average on set pieces, but surprisingly Real Madrid are a pretty middling set piece attack themselves. Valencia have forced more high turnovers with their pressing intensity and have tilted the field more than Real Madrid this season.

This Valencia team was doing all of the underlying things that suggested they were on the verge of a potential breakthrough. Controlling the ball in more dangerous areas, keeping the opponent out of their penalty area and more. The xG numbers themselves were good but not great, qne the numbers that led to those xG numbers further down the chain were even more optimistic.

Juventus host Lazio in a crucial Coppa Italia match given the circumstances surrounding their season.

The Old Lady has been given a 15-point penalty in Serie A for false accounting practices, and Juve are now are sitting in the middle of the table instead of in a Champions League position.

Lazio are currently inside the top four in Serie A, but they are the definition of a paper tiger. They have some of the most unimpressive underlying metrics of any team sitting in a Champions League position across Europe.

Outside of the 15-point penalty, it’s been a good season so far for Juventus on paper. The club is sitting with a +13 goal differential, but the underlying metrics have been very concerning.

They only have a +7 xGD and their defense has run incredibly hot. So far this season, Juventus have only conceded 17 goals off of 22.2 xG. The reason for that is because they are putting a premium on defending their penalty area, as they’re not providing much resistance.

Juventus are 16th in offensive PPDA, 15th in ball recoveries per 90 minutes and 16th in opponent build up completion percentage allowed. On top of that, Juventus are dead last in Serie A in xG allowed per set piece, per The Analyst.

On the other end of the pitch, Juventus have been above-average offensively, garnering 1.33 npxG per 90 minutes, which is sixth in Serie A. However, they’re only ninth in touches in the penalty area and 10th in passes completed into the penalty area, so they have really had to rely on converting the high-quality chances that they get inside the box.

Lazio aren’t providing much resistance into their penalty area, which is how Juventus were able to beat them 3-0 right before the World Cup break.

Lazio has been the biggest over-performer in Europe, running on two years now, and the house of cards is going to fall at some point. So far this season in Serie A, Lazio has a +20 goal differential, but just a +4.9 xGD. The main reason for that is because they’ve run ridiculously hot offensively, scoring 36 goals on 26.7 xG.

Ciro Immobile returned to the lineup against Fiorentina, coming off the bench after a spell out due to injury. He is huge to their attack because he’s taking 2.97 shots per 90 minutes, which is significantly more than anyone else on the team.

Lazio are due for some negative regression defensively as well, as they’re allowing only 16 goals off of 21.9 xG. They’ve allowed teams to come right into their final third and get shots off, as they’re conceding 12.2 shots per 90 minutes, which is 12th in Serie A.

However, they have conceded the seventh-fewest big scoring chances in Italy, so their xG per shot allowed is one of the best in Serie A. They also aren’t the biggest pressing team, ranking 19th in PPDA, 11th in high turnovers and 19th in opponent build up completion percentage allowed, but that is a dangerous game to play against a team like Juventus.

This is a good spot to back Juventus given the circumstances surrounding the club. If they likely aren’t going to be playing in the Champions League, Coppa Italia and the Europa League become more important.

Juventus have been much better at home this season, putting up a +9.6 xGD and the Allianz Stadium versus a -2.8 xGD away from it.

BEST BTTS TEAMS

86% Stenhousemuir
81% Lorient
81% Strasbourg
81% Troyes
79% Girona
75% Milan
72% Bremen
72% Frankfurt
72% Gladbach
72% Madrid
72% Stuttgart
71% Elgin
71% Monaco
71% Rennes

BEST O2.5 TEAMS

81% Stenhousemuir
76% Fulham
76% Lorient
75% Celtic
75% Milan
73% East Fife
73% Partick
72% Bochum
72% Gladbach
72% Leipzig
71% Angers
71% Elgin
71% Rangers
71% Rennes
70% Inter
70% Man City

Chelsea look to turn things around with a new-look squad after the transfer deadline against Fulham to kick off the weekend of Premier League action.

The Blues were the busiest team in the world during the January transfer window, bringing in a whopping eight players for $329 million. While they are looking towards the future for a lot of their signings, Chelsea are currently sitting in 10th place in the Premier League table and are desperate for points to try and make up the ground between them and a spot in the top four.

Fulham are having a magical first season since promotion, as they’re currently sitting in seventh place and just beat Chelsea 2-1 on January 12th at Craven Cottage. However, a lot of the underlying metrics suggest that Fulham are going to regress at some point this season, so we’ll see if some of that comes on the road at Stamford Bridge on Friday.

After all of the moves at the deadline, Chelsea’s attack has to improve going forward. They were much better against Liverpool in their last Premier League match, as they were able to create 1.6 xG and created two big scoring chances.

In fact, Chelsea ha created 5.2 xG in their last three matches, which included a really good offensive performance at Craven Cottage on January 12th, where Chelsea created 2.1 xG and had 10 shots on target, all while playing a man down for the final 30 minutes after Joao Felix got a red card.

The Chelsea defense has had issues all season long and in the short term I am not so sure they’re going to be fixed. They just sold Jorginho to Arsenal, Denis Zakaria is out for this match, and I have to imagine if Enzo Fernandez starts he’s not going to be very well-versed in Graham Potter’s tactics after just two days in London.

So, we are in a situation where Chelsea have no midfield and have second-choice wing backs defending in wide areas for a team that is already 11th in npxG allowed and big scoring chances allowed. That’s not great.

The Fulham defense is going to regress at some point this season and they can’t continue to keep getting away with allowing this many high quality chances.

Since the World Cup break, Fulham have allowed four goals off of 8.2 xG and have conceded six big scoring chances as well. Fulham are the worst defense in the Premier League, allowing 1.69 xG per 90 minutes. Overall for the season, Fulham have allowed 30 goals off of 35.8 xG to go with 37 big scoring chances.

Fulham were able to utilize the wide areas against Chelsea last time around without the services of their main man Aleksander Mitrovic, who was suspended for that match. He is so important to the Fulham attack, as he has created 11.3 of their 28.5 xG on the season.

Even though Chelsea made a whole bunch of new signings that will eventually make their squad better, this is still the same average team in the short term.

Without their two best fullbacks available and potentially being very thin in the midfield as well, I have major concerns with Chelsea’s ability to defend Fulham in wide areas and prevent them from swinging crosses into the 18-yard box.

On the flip side, Fulham’s defense is going to regress at some point and all of Chelsea’s new attackers should help them improve, plus they did create over 2 xG at Craven Cottage while being a man down for the final 30 minutes.

Saturday will kick off a new era at Everton as the Toffees host league leaders Arsenal at Goodison Park. The club fired Frank Lampard after a run of poor results that culminated in a 2-0 defeat to West Ham.

Everton made attempts to hire former Leeds manager Marcelo Bielsa, but ultimately decided on former Burnley manager Sean Dyche in an attempt to rescue the club from potential relegation.

The Toffees haven’t won in the league since October 22nd and they have just one draw in their last nine matches across all competitions. It’s impossible for the form to get any worse as Dyche enters and attempts to solve the defensive issues that have plagued the club of late.

Dyche’s first challenge is an extremely difficult one, even though the match is at home. The Gunners lost in the FA Cup at Manchester City, but they have just two draws and one league defeat in the first 20 matches of the campaign. They’re odds-on to win the title now.

Given the form, Arsenal are the easy play here. But the market has overreacted and left the Gunners overvalued in a difficult away spot.

Everton’s defensive numbers sounded alarm bells since before the World Cup break, and it was only a matter of time until the defense started getting punished for allowing so many high quality crosses, shots and chances.

The Toffees are 19th in non-penalty xG allowed, 20th in shots, 19th in big scoring chances and 20th in crosses allowed into their own penalty area. Lampard’s system did nothing to improve them defensively.

We do know that Dyche has a proven track record of coaching organized defenses that get numbers behind the ball and block a ton of shots. His teams consistently beat xG models’ numbers in defense by having a ton of bodies between the shot and the ball. Even last season when they were relegated, Burnley were 13th in xG per 90 allowed and ninth in big scoring chances conceded.

Even though the midfield was quite poor and was easily overrun — Burnley conceded the most box entries in the league — the defense was good enough to remain in the Premier League. Everton managed to keep Andre Onana for some midfield ball winning and the sale of Anthony Gordon isn’t really much of a loss given his mediocre production and end product.

You can also guarantee effort out of possession under any Dyche team. The Toffees were 17th in ball recoveries this year. Last year, Burnley were fourth in the whole Premier League.

He’ll get the players to buy in, organize the defense and raise the defensive floor enough for Everton. He can also frustrate Arsenal by congesting the middle and forcing them to cross. Arsenal haven’t been a great crossing team this year.

Arsenal’s addition of Jorginho from Chelsea in the January transfer window is a much-needed depth piece because the midfield lacked the depth if one of Thomas Partey or Granit Xhaka went out with an injury. Now, Partey has a knock and is doubtful to play in this away match at Everton.

Partey was a major key for the Gunners’ transition defense. His ball winning and central midfield positioning helped the Gunners improve from a good defense to an elite one this year. Only Ben White has completed more passes into the final third than Partey for Arsenal this year and no player has more tackles or interceptions.

His absence leaves them short on midfield talent and a straight swap for Jorginho is a considerable downgrade in ball winning, defensive range and tackling ability.

The Gunners have been difficult to criticize and poke holes at, but they’ve also been very healthy with their first XI most of the year. Outside of an injury to Gabriel Jesus, their questionable depth hasn’t really been tested and it’s enabled them to play at an elite level.

A key injury to the midfield will test that depth and we could see some regression for Mikel Arteta’s side.

Who wants to bet on Everton right now? The Toffees are at rock bottom and should start to swing upward with their new manager and that’s exactly the time you should look to buy in. This is still the Premier League and no team is as bad as they’ve looked in the last month or as good as they’ve looked in the last month.

The spot for Arsenal is a bit tricky too after their run of high profile matches. Games against Brighton, Spurs, Manchester United, Manchester City and Newcastle were all very difficult tests that the Gunners mostly passed. Now with an injury to Partey and a chance to exhale, Arteta’s Arsenal could be caught in a difficult away environment.

There is a big gap in talent, but the market has moved too far.

Wolves and Liverpool meet for the third time in less than a month at Molineux Stadium in a must win match for both squads.

The home side is still battling in and around the relegation zone and is desperate for points at the moment. The last time Wolves played in the Premier League, they were beaten pretty handily by Manchester City, which means through 20 matches they’ve only been able to pick up 17 points. They were able to take Liverpool to a replay in the FA Cup recently and if they put in that same type of performance on Saturday, they should walk away with at least a point.

Liverpool were beaten by Brighton and Hove Albion once again last weekend, this time in the FA Cup. Jurgen Klopp’s side is in a really bad run of form as of late, as they have just one win in their last six matches across all competitions.

They are currently in ninth place in the Premier League table and need to go on a crazy run over the second half of the season to have any hope of getting a spot inside the top four.

Wolves’ offensive performances against Manchester City and West Ham in their last two matches are a perfect microcosm of their entire season.

They created 1.7 xG off of 27 shots and did not register a shot with an xG rating over 0.15. In fact, 18 of those 27 shots came from outside the box, where Wolves is taking 40% of their shots this season.

It’s also why they have the fourth-longest average shot distance, the lowest xG per shot and have created the fewest big scoring chances in the Premier League.

In fact, they have failed to create over 1 xG in seven of their last eight matches. With that being said, in their 1-0 loss to Liverpool in FA Cup replay, they were by far the better side and actually did create a number of decent chances.

Liverpool got dismantled by Brighton once again in the FA Cup and Klopp’s “heavy metal” style of football has turned more into an acoustic tune you hear at your local coffee shop.

Their press doesn’t have the same bite and intensity that is has had in years past and it’s really the driving force behind a lot of their problems. Last season, Liverpool’s PPDA was 8.07 and now it’s 10.77, per understat.com. Liverpool’s high turnovers have also dropped from 11.7 last season to 9.5 this season, per The Analyst.

Liverpool have a lot of problems at the moment and the core issue is that they are not as dominant in the midfield as they’ve been in years past. Thiago, Fabinho and Jordan Henderson are not able to cover ground like they used to and they are forced to be the ones to make runs into the box to support the attack. So, when Liverpool lose the ball, their midfielders get caught caught too far up the pitch and teams can exploit them in transition.

Additionally Liverpool are without star center back Virgil van Djik, throwing an added difficulty into an already bad situation.

With how bad Liverpool’s defense has been, it’s hard to make a case that they are going to keep Wolves from scoring, considering they allowed them to create 2.4 xG over the two legs of the FA Cup.

Wolves’ attack has to improve going forward, especially after adding Matheus Cunha from Atletico Madrid during the January transfer window.

Leipzig did beat Stuttgart 2-1 at home in the Bundesliga last Friday, but they were outplayed for most of the first half and were dead even on xG, even after factoring out the penalty.

Köln have legitimately good xG numbers this year and they’re quietly trending up themselves. At the beginning of the year, they were incredibly fortunate to get a bunch of red cards in their favor in multiple matches. But on the aggregate, they’ve been the third-best team by xG difference at 11-on-11 this year.

Only Bayern and Leipzig have better underlying numbers. Köln have a to-five defense by xG allowed per match and the defensive strength runs even deeper. They don’t allow anything on set plays, they’re top three in big scoring chances conceded and top six in touches allowed in the. box.

Leipzig haven’t lost since September in the Bundesliga and have just three draws and nine wins since that Gladbach defeat. It’s time to sell high against an underrated Köln catching a half goal at home.

Their positions in the Bundesliga table won’t tell you this or even remotely suggest it, but Mainz and Union Berlin are basically even teams in my projections and in many underlying metrics.

Union have the elite defense with one of the worst attacks in the Bundesliga. Mainz are right around league average at both ends of the pitch.

Mainz have been the subject of some negative variance in finishing and sit in the bottom half of the table. Union have rode an extremely hot run for their main shot getters and somehow are one point behind Bayern Munich in second place.

When these two sides met early in the season at Mainz, there were 1.1 xG created in total between both clubs. Mainz created the better of the chances, but the game was largely dead and without clear chances at either end. Mainz’s defense has regressed as a whole but this is a favorable matchup for them as an underdog.

Union dpn’t press at all — which is an anomaly given the notorious frenetic pressing nature of Germany’s top flight. They’re dead last in passes per defensive action. They keep teams out of the penalty area but that also means they’re not good at winning the ball and keeping possession.

They have the third-lowest possession rate in the league. Betting against Union as a favorite is the spot to do it, especially since they won’t have the set piece edge either — Mainz are the best in the league against set pieces. This game is close to a coin flip

Manchester United host Crystal Palace in a crucial encounter to solidify their position inside the top four.

United are comfortably sitting inside the top four and now have booked their place in the League Cup final to try and win their first trophy in five years. The Red Devils just played Crystal Palace two weeks ago, losing their slim lead in stoppage time, so they will be looking to hold onto a lead this time around.

Crystal Palace are in the middle of a really tough run of matches. Their last four matches in the Premier League have been against Tottenham, Chelsea, Manchester United and Newcastle. The Eagles are currently in 12th place, which is honestly where they should be given their underlying metrics.

Manchester United are in a great run of form at the moment, despite the loss to Arsenal the last time they were out in the Premier League. The Red Devils won two matches over Nottingham Forest in the League Cup semifinals and then beat Reading in the FA Cup.

Erik Ten Hag’s side has been really good against lesser competition, especially defensively. When Manchester United has played non-Big Six teams this season, they are only allowing 0.95 xG per 90 minutes.

Something United have done well under Ten Hag is creating low-event style matches. In even game states or when Manchester United are leading by one goal, they’re only allowing 1.04 xG per 90 minutes. Casemiro has also been so important for Manchester United defensively because since he started playing regularly in the Starting XI, United are only allowing 0.80 xG per 90 minutes, and without him they’re allowing 1.65 xG per 90 minutes.

Since the World Cup break, Crystal Palace have created over 1 xG against just one opponent and it was Bournemouth. In their six matches since the break they’ve also only created two big scoring chances, which both came against Bournemouth.

For the season, they have been very poor in the final third, as Palace are only averaging 0.83 npxG per 90 minutes, have created just 11 big scoring chances and are 19th in touches in the penalty area.

They did nothing against Manchester United in the last meeting, creating just 0.5 xG off of 10 shots, completing just seven passes into the penalty area and amassing just 20 touches in the penalty area. To make matters worse, Wilfred Zaha is out for this match.

The Crystal Palace defense has been a major problem this season as well, especially against good competition. In nine matches against the Big Six plus Newcastle, Crystal Palace have conceded 15.4 xG. Against everyone else, they’ve only conceded 12 xG in 11 matches.

This match should have a very similar game script as the last one at Selhurst Park. Manchester United will likely dominate possession, while Palace will put a premium on defending very compact in and around their penalty area.

Even if Manchester United score early, as the last match showed, they have been incredibly good a shutting games down and also aren’t really looking to get forward in attack to run up the score.

With Christian Eriksen out injured, that means Fred is going to come on, which is a more defensive option for Manchester United. Crystal Palace’s best attacker is also out.

Manchester United vs. Crystal Palace
Saturday 10:00 a.m. ET

Manchester United sit nicely in fourth place in the EPL and will look to cement their Champions League Qualification aspirations by defeating visitors Crystal Palace this Saturday. I think they can do that and do it without conceding a goal as well!

Patrick Vieira brings his Crystal Place team to Old Trafford without a win the past five games in all competitions, and this is not the place to come to if you want to break a losing streak.

Manchester United have played nine EPL games at home this year, winning seven of them and keeping five clean sheets. They also have won their last 12 home matches in all competitions and have won eight of them to nil. I have written before their manager, Erik ten Haag, has stamped his style and authority on this club, and they have looked like a different team than the last few seasons.

He has Marcus Rashford, who looked to possibly be on his way out last year, playing the best football of his career and terrorizing defenses. But ten Hag’s most impressive achievement is surely turning this Man United defense into a solid unit that is difficult to penetrate.

United will still be fuming as Palace scored a late equalizer in their recent meeting at Selhurst Park—a draw that may well have derailed any hope United had of catching Manchester City and Arsenal. They still have much to play for though and a top-four finish will be seen as strong progress for ten Haag and the Red Devils.

Patrick Vieira would probably have settled for 12th place at this stage of the season, but his Palace side has been very poor on their recent travels in the EPL. They have won only two of nine away games, and in recent games this month against Tottenham, Chelsea and Newcastle, they have failed to score. I see that stat repeating at Old Trafford this Saturday, especially as their top goalscorer and former Manchester United striker Wilfried Zaha will miss the trip to his former club.

United can solidify their fourth position and will put Palace’s defense under tremendous pressure.

Brentford vs. Southampton
Saturday 10:00 a.m. ET

Brentford sits proudly in eighth place in the EPL, and on Saturday, they will be aiming to go even higher as they welcome rock-bottom Southampton. To be fair, new manager Nathan Jones has galvanized the Saints in League and Cup games since arriving, and they will provide the high-flying Bees some tough resistance.

The fact remains Southampton is a poor team who have lost seven of their 10 away games this season, and that is largely why they are propping up the entire EPL. The owners have realized they must score more if they are to have any chance of beating the drop, so they have invested in winger Kamaldeen Sulemana and striker Paul Onuachu. Both are likely to debut against Brentford, but neither looks to be a quick fix for their goalscoring issues. Scoring more is certainly needed, but they must also plug a leaky defense on the road that has conceded 18 times in their 10 away games.

Brentford lines up in great form, and since the restart after the World Cup, they have beaten West Ham, Liverpool and Bournemouth and drawn with Leeds and Tottenham. Brentford is a club going places, and their supporters will be delighted that manager Thomas Frank has signed a new deal to keep him at the club till 2027! The recent victory against Liverpool was achieved in style and they’ve proved, particularly at home, this Brentford side fears nobody.

Though the Saints are an improved team lately and do have a newfound fighting spirit under Nathan Jones, they still look short of the quality needed to stop an in-form Brentford who is looking to break into the top six in the EPL. They rate a confident pick to keep Southampton rock bottom in the table.

I struggle to see how this Getafe side creates enough chances consistently in this match on Saturday.

If you thought Cádiz’s road numbers were bad, the Azulones are averaging just 0.54 expected goals per away match, which is the lowest in La Liga. They are also only generating 0.64 xG per game against teams in the top half of the table.

Getafe have found a way to get on the scoresheet in more matches than they should, which is why I’m electing for a Single Game Parlay of an Atlético Madrid victory with the total falling under four goals (-134), instead of winning with a shutout.

Whenever Madrid have played a side in the bottom six, manager Diego Simeone’s squad has posted a +6.7 xGDiff and held those opponents to just 0.8 xG per 90 minutes. This same bet also cashed in 5-of-7 games, including a 3-0 victory over Getafe in the opening match of the season.

United States international Weston McKennie could make his Premier League debut on Sunday when Leeds United visit Nottingham Forest in a match that is critical to both teams’ Premier League survival.

McKennie joins a Leeds side with familiar American faces in manager Jesse Marsch, and teammates Tyler Adams and Brenden Aaronson. He’s also no stranger to a relegation fight: Schalke were embroiled in one in his last season at the club, and ultimately went down the following year.

Newly promoted Nottingham Forest were once favorites to go back down after reaching this level for the first time since they 1990s. They’re now unbeaten with eight points from their last four league fixtures, and begin the weekend in 13th place. That’s three points above Leeds in 15th and four above the relegation zone.

This is the duo’s first meeting of the campaign, with their previously scheduled clash in Leeds one of many September EPL postponements.

Perhaps there’s a risk that Forest will have their recent league form uprooted by a dispiriting two-leg loss to Manchester United in the League Cup semifinals.

Forest lost 5-0 on aggregate, including a particularly rough 3-0 result in the first leg at home. The second half of the tie at Old Trafford was relatively uneventful until Anthony Martial and Fred scored on 73 and 76 minutes, respectively.

But manager Steve Cooper’s have already taken some hefty beatings before and responded well. In all competitions, their record following a multi-goal defeat is 1-3-4 (W-L-D). More generally, they appear to be a side that has figured out their identity at this level.

In their last 10 in the league, Forest’s only defeats have come to top-four sides (Manchester United away, Arsenal away). Although their season-long xG difference is -7.4, it’s only -1.7 over that stretch, including those two defeats.

Costa Rica international Keylor Navas could make his first start for Forest days after his acquisition from Paris St. Germain. His goalkeeping colleague Dean Henderson is still out with a hamstring issue.

Further up the pitch, Morgan Gibbs-White and Taiwo Awoniyi are both unavailable. That duo have combined for six of Forest’s 16 goals.

You could argue the quality of Leeds’ play has been better than Forest’s over stretches of the season. But the results have not.

Marsch’s men have the superior goal difference and xG difference, and they have easily given the better accounts of themselves against top-half sides. That includes a 0-0 draw at Newcastle last month that is the only point earned by either side against the current top four.

But they occupy a lower rung in the current table in part because of their inconsistency, particularly on the attacking end. In defense, they’re a bit too consistent in letting in goals, having allowed at least three more often (five games) than they’ve kept clean sheets (four).

They’re also short Rodrigo, whose 10 goals are easily Leeds’ most this season.

This is a place where McKennie could offer supplemental help. The box-to-box midfielder is good at providing late-arriving runs, and he had averaged above 0.2 goals per 90 minutes in his first two Serie A seasons before a drop off this year.

At striker, Patrick Bamford has been healthy for a couple weeks after his own layoff, and he could be in line for his first start since his return.

Neither of these teams are particularly reliable attacking sides, but Forest are consistent in home games.

Cooper’s squad has been held scoreless only once in 10 league games at the City Ground, through they’ve yet to score more than two. Leeds have kept only one clean sheet on their travels.

Add in that Forest seem to be a visibly improved side in their last 10 Premier League games, and that Leeds lack some attacking solutions right now, and the home side should be a heavier favorite. This is a line that appears to factor in the analytics from the entire season, without a heavy enough lean on more recent games.

The moneyline on Forest isn’t a bad play, but given that Forest can’t really run and hide with a goal barrage — even though Leeds sometimes allow them, taking the draw out of the equation on a draw no bet wager at -110 odds and an implied 52.4% probability.

A busy weekend in the Premier League concludes on Sunday with the highlight match of the weekend, as Manchester City visit North London to take on Tottenham. This building has been a house of horrors for Manchester City, as Spurs have won all four meetings here since Spurs opened the stadium in 2019.

These two sides met in early January in Manchester, and City recovered from a 2-0 halftime deficit to beat Spurs 4-2. The game had little in it in the first 40 minutes with few chances at either end, until Ederson’s poor pass out of goal led to an easy goal-scoring opportunity for Spurs.

Tottenham weren’t able to hold the lead, nor were they able to produce any clear scoring chances in the second half of the match. With Spurs attack struggling of late and City’s numbers not as dominant as years past, the total is a bit inflated here

Spurs found their winning form again with a 1-0 victory on the road at Fulham prior to the FA Cup weekend, but it was another uninspiring attacking performance for Antonio Conte’s side.

Despite facing one of the league’s worst defenses, Spurs produced less than 1 xG in the match and only scored because of one moment of individual Harry Kane brilliance.

The game state from that loss to Manchester City the match prior makes it difficult to contextualize Spurs’ performance. They were very effective at preventing City from breaking them down in the first half, when City produced zero big scoring chances and just 0.4 xG. None of City’s chances had an xG value higher than 0.1.

That’s the Tottenham way when they’re defending against better sides and an approach that is pretty effective for this group. Spurs will concede space and possession in the final third, but their individual defending in the penalty area remains excellent. Spurs are a top six defense in terms of xGA and a lot of that accumulates on low-quality shots from outside the penalty area.

Tottenham have conceded the third-fewest big scoring chances in the league and are first in xG allowed per set piece. City shouldn’t be able to easily break them down at home, and I’m also skeptical of their transitional success given their recent poor displays in attack post-World Cup.

City aren’t producing at past levels but the market still thinks they are given this total on Sunday.

Pep Guardiola’s side is generating fewer shots per 90, a lower xG per shot and a longer average shot distance than last season. There is lot of potential reasons why this may be the case, as The Athletic’s John Muller wrote about.

However, the end result is that the Cityzens have dropped from 2.54 xG per match last season down to 2.06 this season.

Despite adding Erling Haaland, City’s attack is producing less. This was true against Wolves in the last league match, when City did very little to create their own offense outside of a Wolves back pass and a penalty. They totaled just five shots in an FA Cup win against Arsenal at home despite the Gunners resting some key starters.

Tottenham’s biggest issue defensively this season has been poor passing out from the back leading to miscues and chances for the opponent. Yet, Manchester City are pressing less this year and allowing opponents to complete more passes against them. Spurs will have their first choice defense and midfield healthy too, so I don’t expect City to completely overwhelm Spurs on the road.

Tottenham and Manchester City may have played a six-goal thriller last time out, but the way that game played out suggests that the second game won’t be nearly as full of goals.

Both sides were remarkably efficient at taking their chances. Opportunities were largely gifted by the opponent and not necessarily earned. That’s especially true for Spurs’ first goal and City’s final goal.

There were only 3.0 xG despite all of the miscues at City. Spurs should give a better defensive showing at home and the longer this game remains 0-0, the more the balance shifts toward a sturdy Spurs defense.

Tottenham vs. Manchester City
Sunday 11.30 a.m. ET

Without a doubt, the game of the weekend is on Sunday as Manchester City visits Tottenham in a fixture where they have struggled in recent seasons. Pep Guardiola knows his side must put a huge winning run together if they are to catch leaders Arsenal and defend their EPL Title. Do not put it past him or his side full of world-class players, though it is a very tough assignment!

On the surface, recent results here do not make great reading for City supporters with Tottenham having won the last three home games against City in the EPL scoring five and conceding none in the process.

Ironically, Conte’s Tottenham has fared better recently away from the pressure cooker of their own ground, winning their last two away games. They were 1-0 away against London rivals Fulham and earned a comfortable 3-0 victory against Preston in the FA Cup. At home, they have struggled, losing at home to Villa and bitter rivals Arsenal 2-0. Conte will be concerned by their lack of attacking threat in those games, and also by the erratic form of goalkeeper Hugo Lloris, who is starting to look a liability by throwing in at least one huge mistake every game.

Antonio Conte, himself, is likely to miss this game, as he recovers from illness, and the team may well miss his presence on the sideline, though Lloris may be relieved given the glares Conte has given him after his repeated mistakes.

One player no goalie wants to face whatever their current form is Erling Haaland, who has now scored 25 times in just 19 games this season. Tottenham will already be having nightmares about facing him. In the recent game at the Etihad, Tottenham threw away a 2-0 lead with City replying with four second-half goals. Haaland scored one of those, but he led the fight back, driving his team forward. At times, he has looked unstoppable this season.

In a move that surprised many, Manchester City let Joao Cancelo leave the club this January, but they still have an embarrassment of riches throughout the team. By letting him go, Guardiola has reminded all his players that if they don’t perform to his high standards, they will be out!

Though Tottenham has a great recent record in this fixture, the recent 4-2 loss at City and those two poor performances in the 2-0 home defeats to Villa and Arsenal lead me to believe Tottenham is in for another difficult afternoon this Sunday. City may not be ready to surrender their title just yet to Tottenham’s London neighbors Arsenal.

Real Sociedad’s great season will continue with a shutout victory over Real Valladolid on Sunday.

The newly-promoted club is one of the worst road teams in the Spanish top flight, owning a -13.5 xGDiff and averaging just 0.69 xG per away fixture.

Valladolid have also failed to score in 6-of-9 away from home, including the last five straight.

You also have to look at how the club has performed against the better teams in La Liga. Against sides in the top 10, Valladolid have only found the back of the net in 1-of-10 fixtures to go along with a -11.5 xGDiff.

It’s the time in the season where the Bundesliga appears it just might have a title race. Usually, that’s followed up by domination from Bayern Munich. This year, Bayern look genuinely vulnerable for the first time in multiple years.

Their performances post-World Cup have been shaky with three consecutive draws in the league against RB Leipzig, FC Köln and Eintracht Frankfurt.

It’s opened the door for Leipzig to charge within two points of Bayern, while Borussia Dortmund are getting healthy and sit just three points back. Leipzig remain +1000 and Dortmund are +2000 to win the Bundesliga, but Bayern are clearly missing their floor raiser with Robert Lewandowski’s goals missing from the side as the central focal point of the attack.

As talented as they are, Bayern have a difficult away trip to Wolfsburg on Sunday that highlights another intriguing Bundesliga slate.

Bayern have struggled mightily for form since returning from the World Cup. They’ve created 1.6 xG or less in all three matches and now have a tricky road trip to a Wolfsburg side that has been scoring goals for fun since returning from the World Cup break.

Wolfsburg scored 11 goals in the first two matches with six against Freiburg and five against Hertha Berlin. Those two outlier games shouldn’t be overreacted to because this attack is still extremely underwhelming overall.

They are 14th in touches in the opposition penalty area and 10th in non-penalty expected goals going forward.

We saw a closer version to what this Wolfsburg attack is when it managed just 0.7 xG at Werder Bremen and tallied six shots at Union Berlin in the cup during the week. Wolfsburg’s defense has done a good job of taking away high quality shots, however, and it’s why they remain an above-average defense.

They’re solidly above-average in average shot distance allowed. The biggest problem for Bayern is declining high quality shots without Lewandowski. Bayern’s average shot distance is a full yard longer than last year.