this will wrap up the last weekend, let's finish strong heading into the World Cup. Thanks to everyone for a fantastic season !
GL

It is for me...

Some nice spots on the final day in France L2 today. Trying these

AC Ajaccio/Niort draw +333
AC Ajaccio already qualified for L1 promotion, Niort in the safe zone as a W or L won't get them promoted or relegated.

Bourg Peronnas -133
Tough to lay this on Bourg who have the worst goal diff. in L2 but a win and a Nancy loss could keep them from relegation. Sochaux is in the safe zone with no chance for promotion or relegation. Bourg is favored for a reason here.

GFC Ajaccio/Valenciennes draw +230
Both teams safe from relagation and neither in position for promotion. 2 of the last 3 H2H have been draws. Looking for both to go through the motions of a meaningless match today.

Lens/Auxerre draw +275
Same as above as far as promotion/relegation. Lens has gotten the better of the series recently winning 4 of last 5 at home. Lets hope for the gentlemans draw in this one today.

Lorient -125
Lorient needs win and a little help for promotion. They have a good goal diff. so a win here really puts pressure on Brest, Le Harve, and Clermont the others fighting for promotion. Quevilly most likely in the relegation zone regardless of result. Lorient has not had a draw in 13 straight matches. They get a much needed win here.

Reims/Nimes draw +260
Both already qualified for promotion. Settle it next year in League 1

Lunch money Parlay all the above minus Reims/Nimes draw since Reims may want to end with a home win for the fans.

Parlay $10 to win $1567.05

GL guys, have a great weekend

Good luck w/ the parlay!

Having finished 6th in the regular season, the bookies have Derby as the rank outsiders to win the Championship play-offs. On paper they are a weaker team than Fulham, who have excelled for the majority of this campaign, only to fall just short on automatic promotion. However at this time of year, the ability to stay cool and handle the intense pressure that these games bring counts for plenty and the Rams will fancy they can cause an upset in the 1st Leg at least.

Both sides have one or two demons they are trying to overcome here. Derby have now finished in the Championship’s top ten in six straight seasons but they are yet to convert that consistency into a return to the Premier League. They suffered play-off heartbreak in 2014 and 2016 and are hoping to avoid the same fate here.

Fulham meanwhile have arguably an even bigger point to prove. Nobody can doubt their quality but they are widely perceived to have choked in the play-offs last term and it’s tempting to say the same thing happened at St Andrews last weekend when they suffered their first league defeat since December, in a match where victory could have sealed automatic promotion.

They are perhaps a better side now than they were last term when Reading defeated them in the play-offs but this is a real test of character for them. This game comes just five days after that defeat to Birmingham, while they take on a Derby side that beat Barnsley 4-1 on the final day and took 7 points from their final 3 league games to seal a crack at the play-offs.

The Rams will therefore feel like the momentum is with them and they will fancy they can cause problems for this Fulham defence. They’ve netted in all of their last 9 home games and have scored 3 or more in 3 of the last 4. In Matej Vydra they have the Championship’s top scorer with 21 goals, while the likes of Cameron Jerome and David Nugent have also hit form in front of goal, so they aren’t short on attacking options here.

The same could certainly be said of Fulham though. The West Londoners have scored in all of their last 24 league games and ended the season as the division’s second highest scorers behind champions Wolves. Their main goal threat is in-form Aleksandar Mitrovic and the big Serb has scored in 5 of his last 7 appearances, which suggests backing Mitrovic to score anytime offers value here.

There’s certainly strong reason to fancy this will be a bit more than a typical cagey 1st Leg affair and we should see both sides create chances. All of Derby’s last 5 games have seen both teams score, while so have 3 of Fulham’s last 4 and backing Both Teams to Score looks like the smart bet here in what should be a really good contest.

Fulham/Derby County - BTTS

Friday MLS 5-11

3* Houston +193 vs Vancouver

Houston lost in March to Whitecaps and actually played very well in that game ,coming away with a narrow 2-1 loss.Houston will be playing with revenge tonight against team that has managed just 4 goals in 4 home games this season and have knocked in just 5 in last 6 games overall.I think their is value with Houston tonight . GL

3-3 +3.68 (minus the lunch money parlay)

361722100
SOC Supersport United FC DRAW +191

361722101
SOC Polokwane City DRAW +195

361722102
SOC Maritzburg United FC DRAW +219

361722103
SOC Orlando Pirates FC DRAW +232

glta

congrats on those draws Gush
tailing trader on Dynamo (HUM)

Middlesbrough vs. Aston Villa — Saturday, 12:15 p.m. ET
First-leg odds: Middlesbrough (+136), Aston Villa (+256), Draw (+212)
As opposed to the first semifinal, these two sides both knew they’d be in this situation. Aston Villa have been assured a top-six finish for some time now, and have known that fourth is the best they could do for a matter of weeks, having fallen off the pace of Cardiff and Fulham. Indeed, while just one place separated these two sides in the table, the gap between the two in terms of points was seven despite Villa picking up just one point from their last two matches.

That may point toward a dip in form, but while momentum is important when approaching the playoffs, the away side have been able to take their foot off the gas and rotate what is a very healthy squad in more ways than one. There’s competition for places all over the pitch for Steve Bruce to consider, with the Villa manager making nine changes to his lineup last weekend to keep key players fresh.

Opposing manager Tony Pulis took a different approach with his side, fielding a strong starting XI against Ipswich, only to need a 96th-minute equalizer from Patrick Bamford to regain the fifth spot. Indeed, up until that moment, an unlikely swing had occurred in which Derby had overtaken Boro, which would have forced both managers to rethink their plans having assumed that this fixture would be something of a given prior to kickoff last Sunday.

Preparations would have been underway to try to limit the influence of the decisive opposition players, and in recent weeks and months, it’s clear whom each side have relied upon.

In fact, it’s a former Villa player in Adama Traore who comes into this game as the biggest threat to the visitors’ stubborn resolve, with the winger’s pace and power proving all but unstoppable in the second half of the season.

Meanwhile, the Spaniard’s former teammate, Jack Grealish, has been pulling the strings for the away side, and combating his creativity will be the objective of the hosts’ midfield.

However, while both have enviable attacking options, this should be a chess match between two experienced managers — both of whom have won promotion to the Premier League from this division. Bruce has done so as many as four times — and via the playoffs on three of those occasions — while Pulis is renowned for his direct tactics, with an onus on defensive organization.

Their know-how led to the fact that only the top two in the league conceded fewer goals in the regular season, and neither side will want to give too much way in this first leg. As such, the price on under 2.5 goals is considerably lower than in the other semifinal, but the odds on Aston Villa to score exactly one goal (+187) appeal to me; that happened in this fixture back in December and in four of Aston Villa’s last six matches in total.

Houston Dynamo at Vancouver Whitecaps (Friday, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Vancouver +125, Houston +213, Draw +270, Total 2.5 (o-130)

Vancouver will be happy to return home since they’ve now lost three consecutive road matches, including a 1-0 decision to lowly Minnesota last weekend. Meanwhile, the Houston Dynamo have won two of three overall after beating the LA Galaxy, 3-2, in their last outing.

The Whitecaps won the head-to-head matchup earlier this season, 2-1, at Houston, and also won the last meeting in Vancouver by the same 2-1 score (August 2017).

Vancouver should be boosted by the return of striker Kei Kamara from injury, as he’ll undoubtedly help create more scoring chances. The Whitecaps have been shut out four times this season and boast a -8 goal differential, but they’ve still managed to earn 13 points through 10 matches.

Since odds opened, the line has fluctuated all over the place. Vancouver started at +130 but has bounced around from as low as +122 to as high as +139. Public bettors are having no problem backing the home side with nearly 80% of tickets, but this is a very even matchup and not nearly as lopsided as the bets suggest.

This is a match that both teams think they can win, but the true value lies in going contrarian and taking the draw at +270.

Philadelphia Union at Montreal Impact (Saturday, 3 p.m. ET)
Moneyline odds: Montreal -102, Philadelphia +267, Draw +280, Total 3 (u-119)

Philadelphia and Montreal have combined for a lot of losses this season (12 in 19 games), but at least one of them will avoid that result on Saturday afternoon. The Union have been shut out six times already and just can’t seem to find the back of the net, while the Impact haven’t been able to stop other teams from scoring. This matchup will be a fun battle of weakness vs. weakness.

The Impact have had the upper hand in the last five meetings against Philadelphia (3 W, 2 D, 0 L), and they’ve got just over a 50% chance of beating them again. These teams drew, 3-3, in their matchup earlier this season in Philadelphia.

Despite the fact that the Union have been shut out in consecutive matches, oddsmakers list the total at 3 goals and are unlikely to lower it. Philadelphia knows it can score against this Montreal squad, and I like the Union’s chances to break out of their scoring funk on Saturday. Over 3 goals (+102) is where the best value is.

Believe it or not, Liverpool still haven’t clinched a trip to next year’s Champions League.

With one game left to play, they have 72 points and Chelsea sit behind them with 70. If Liverpool were to lose at home to Brighton on Sunday and Chelsea comes back from Newcastle with a win, the Reds would finish the season in fifth and Chelsea would, improbably, be on their way to the Champions League.

This is, of course, very unlikely to happen. Brighton are +1477 (5dimes) to beat Liverpool, while Chelsea are -158 to win at St. James’ Park. Liverpool, by any measure, are in terrific shape. Despite that, the fact that Liverpool find themselves with any fear on the season’s final day is alarming. This was supposed to be wrapped up weeks ago.

An Unwanted Distraction
While Liverpool were busy beating Roma to advance to the Champions League finals, their Premier League form took a major tumble. They haven’t won since April 14. In the interim they’ve drawn against West Brom and Stoke, two teams set to be relegated from the Premier League at the end of the season. Liverpool then lost to Chelsea last weekend, a major stumble that put them in their current predicament. Before their three-game stumble, Jurgen Klopp’s team were in third place, not only seven points ahead of Chelsea, but also two points in front of Tottenham Hotspur.

Champions League qualification was supposed to be done and dusted by now. In an ideal world, Liverpool would be resting stars and getting healthy ahead of their Champions League final against Real Madrid, not making sure they don’t slip up and face disaster.

Embrace the Sweat
It’s been a weird stretch of games for Liverpool. They played well against a poor Stoke side, a game sandwiched between the two legs of the Champions League semifinals. They out-shot Stoke, 20-5, and even though they only managed to get two total shots on target, 14 of the 20 were inside the penalty area. Sometimes the ball just doesn’t go into the net.

But, in the other two matches — against West Brom before Stoke, and against Chelsea after — Liverpool were well off their game. They took nine and 10 shots in those two matches, well below their season average of 16.6. And they conceded 13 and 12, despite giving up on average only 7.6. The Stoke game might have just been bad luck, but both before and after that Liverpool’s dropped points were very much in line with how they played.

It is, of course, impossible to treat Liverpool’s form like an actual crisis because while they were busy struggling in the Premier League, they did rather handily dispatch Roma in the Champions League semifinals. Although even there they were unable to comfortably put Roma away despite scoring the first five goals of the two-legged tie. It is admittedly an odd way to look at things, but after going up 5-0 in the first 68 minutes, Liverpool proceeded to get outscored, 6-2, the rest of the way. The same dynamic as the Premier League played out in miniature in the Champions League semifinals. After building a huge cushion, Liverpool played just poorly enough to create some sweat at the end.

Testing the Depth
Some of this seeming tendency to slip may be out of Liverpool’s control. Nearing the end of a long season, and with an unexpected Champions League run piling up games on top of their domestic schedule, Liverpool are simply running out of bodies, especially in midfield. Superstar Philippe Coutinho forced his way to Barcelona in January. Since then, Emre Can has gone down with a back injury (one that might be exacerbated by the fact his contract is up at the end of the season). Adam Lallana has barely played all season, and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, who had decidedly come into his own this year after transferring from Arsenal, ripped up his knee in the first leg against Roma.

The only warm bodies that Liverpool have left are Jordan Henderson, James Milner and Georginio Wijnaldum. That’s a perfectly capable midfield. But, in Klopp’s high-energy, high-pressing, mile-a-minute system, everybody needs a day off sometimes. In order to rotate the squad, Liverpool’s 19-year-old fullback Trent Alexander-Arnold has been playing midfield minutes. He’s handled himself well in the position — and he played it as a youth player, so it’s not entirely unfamiliar territory — but it’s still not ideal to have your prodigy of a fullback playing important minutes out of position in games that matter simply because you’re out of any other options.

And then there’s the front three. Mohammed Salah has clearly been a revelation. Roberto Firmino blends attacking output, defensive ferocity and playmaking creativity in a wholly unique way, and Sadio Mane might as well have been constructed in a lab to provide whatever is needed to knit the two more prolific members of the front line together. It’s been a magical unit all season long. But when a unit works that well together, it’s hard to rest or rotate them and not see some form of malaise. Of course, it’s hard to start all three of them every game and also not end up with an attack running on fumes by the end of the season.

Liverpool’s depth in attack certainly isn’t great. Dominic Solanke has shown a promising skill set in limited minutes. He’s also 20 and has yet to translate those skills into goals. It may well be coming, but it’s not here yet. Danny Ings is a nice squad player, but he’s not nearly dynamic enough to take the place of any of the front three. And here again the fact that Coutinho left and Ox and Lallana got hurt, all three of whom could have provided wing depth in addition to their midfield presence, makes the problem more acute.

Weathering the Storm
Given all these dynamics, it’s certainly understandable that Liverpool ended up fading down the stretch. It’s also why the fact that they built such a huge cushion over the bulk of the season is so key. The reason that Liverpool have spent the end of the season remaining overwhelming favorites to qualify for the Champions League even while struggling over the last month is that they earned that right through their play in the 34 games before that.

Seasons are long, and sometimes injuries, poor play or other vagaries of life are unavoidable. Just because they’re slightly below their peak performance in the Premier League right now doesn’t mean that Liverpool made mistakes in order to get here. The side maxed out what a dynamic attack and versatile midfield could provide them, giving them the space they need to weather the storm when they got infected by an injury plague down the stretch.

Now, all the team needs is an extremely routine point at home (and it’s worth noting even as they’ve struggled, Liverpool haven’t lost to anybody but Chelsea; their other down results have all been draws against lesser sides), and their season ends as an unreserved success. And that’s before they set foot in Kiev for the Champions League final, a match they have a very real chance of winning against Real Madrid.

One of the biggest direct match ups in Europe this weekend takes place at Hoffenheim, who host Borussia Dortmund with both sides knowing that a win would guarantee a Champions League berth. The visitors only need a point to secure a top four finish, but their hosts are currently level on points with Bayer Leverkusen (fifth) and just two clear of Leipzig (sixth), who face Hannover and Hertha Berlin respectively.



At the opposite end of the table two former German heavyweights are in a direct battle against relegation, with Hamburg needing a win at home to Gladbach and for Wolfsburg to lose against relegated Cologne. It’s looking unlikely that HSV will complete another unlikely great escape, then, having never previously been relegated from the Bundesliga.

he one title race that had promised to go right to the wire just a matter of weeks ago is all but over in Italy. It would take an unprecedented goal swing for Juventus to be denied a seventh successive Scudetti, with Napoli six points back with two games remaining. The first of those fixtures for the Old Lady is a difficult one, however, as they travel to face a Roma side that would ensure a Champions League finish with a victory.



Elsewhere, fresh from a heavy Coppa Italia final defeat to the champions elect, AC Milan have another huge game at Atalanta, who are just one point and one place below them in the race for the final Europa League berth. A draw would really open the door for Fiorentina to come back into the running, with the Viola hosting a Cagliari side in need of points to avoid the drop.

Despite there still being two games remaining in LaLiga there’s only really one formality still to be decided. That’s the race for the Europa League between Villarreal and Sevilla, with the latter hoping to join Seville rivals Real Betis next season, who only need a point to guarantee their qualification. The two neighbours come to blows this weekend, with Betis able to end their visitors hopes, while Villarreal travel to face relegated Deportivo.

Following PSG’s predictable Coupe de France triumph over Les Herbiers on Tuesday fifth place in Ligue 1 will now earn qualification to the Europa League, and there are five sides still mathematically in the running. Rennes are the front runners as things stand but travel to face the champions this Saturday, while Saint-Etienne (sixth), face a Monaco side in a three-way battle for the second Champions League spot.



The former champions are currently third behind Lyon, who are away at Strasbourg, with the hosts in desperate need of points, sitting just one place and one point above a relegation play-off finish. They are one of five teams in France that could yet join bottom club Metz in Ligue 2 next season.

there is some reverse going on here this morning

SOC [202437] TOTAL o3-112 (RB LEIPZIG vrs HERTHA BSC)

YTD
48-35-6 +38.12

Augsburg/Freiburg draw +240
Freiburg need a point to remain safe from relegation. Augsburg already safe and have some players out for todays match. No need for either side to push the issue much today. Augsburg have draws in 4 of last 5 road matches.

Leipzig -125
Leipzig need a win here to guarantee Europa hopes. A win could also get Champions league qualification depending on results of a few other teams. Hertha already safe and have no hopes of Europa or Champions league as well as no relegation.

Hamburger +120
Hamburger need win and some other help to avoid relegation. Monchengladbach with outside shot at Europa qualification but seems unlikely. Monch has lost 7 of last 10 away matches while Hamburger have won on the last day of Bundesliga the last 3 years.

Mainz/Werder Bremen draw +270
A meaningless match with nothing to gain or lose here for either side.

GL

Trader - Watched the last 20 min of the Houston/Vancouver match. This was a complete giveaway by Houston, as the gave up a goal in the last 5 seconds for a draw. This had been a habit all season.

HoustonFan,yeah bad collapse late and nice spot for Draw backers.

Saturday MLS

3* Minnesota vs San Jose Over 2.5 @ -170

Not ecstatic about laying the juice here, but this spot looks like 4 or 5 goals to me.The meetings that have occurred over last year have resulted in 3.7 Goals per game and San Jose has allowed 2 or more in 6 of 8 games this season with 7 of 10 Loons games having 3 or more goals. I like Over

Stuttgart I think was +1200 earlier against Bayern and leading 2-1 at half, I thought of pulling trigger on them but I bet Bayern comes back here with 3-2 or 4-3 wild finish.Stuttgart still playing for Europa,so the motivational angle almost made it worth grabbing at +1200.