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Traderpro
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Mar 2009
Posts: 4375
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Nice day Gary, way to hang in after the slow starts we have had in WC.
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06-23-18 09:58 PM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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England vs. Panama, 8 a.m. ET Sunday, Fox Sports 1
Panama +1658
England -458
Draw +510
Bet to Watch:
Over 2.5 goals -114 (Bookmaker)
Belgium have now done their bit in Group G, so it’s over to England to book their place in the Round of 16 alongside the Red Devils ahead of their big meeting next Thursday.
To do so, Gareth Southgate’s side have to beat tournament debutantes Panama and are understandably huge favorites to do so. As the match in Moscow proved on Saturday, the second match in any group is usually more open, although Tunisia’s naive endeavor against Belgium will be a warning shot to the underdogs in this one.
Panama need a point at the very least after all, so they will look to employ the same tactics that saw them go in at halftime without conceding against Belgium last week. That said, they do try to pass out from the back when possible and keep possession, so England will press hard from the start as they did in their own opening game.
It’s known that Southgate will make two changes to his starting 11, with youngsters Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Marcus Rashford replacing Dele Alli and Raheem Sterling, respectively, but the tactics and formation will remain unchanged. They’ll look to swarm on the Panama defense in the early exchanges, and the pace in the side could prove too much for the Central Americans.
It caught many England fans by surprise quite how enterprising the Three Lions were in the first half against Tunisia in particular, and they eventually weathered the storm. Whether Panama have the quality to challenge their opponents remains to be seen, but if the Three Lions find a breakthrough before halftime, I’d expect Harry Kane and Co. to win comfortably, with England’s captain setting his sights on the Golden Boot.
The odds on this game to follow suit of the three before it in the group and see over 2.5 goals offering good value
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06-24-18 02:06 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Senegal vs. Japan, 11 a.m. ET, Fox
Senegal +128
Japan +246
Draw +220
Bet to Watch:
Senegal +128 (Bookmaker)
You may not have had Japan vs. Senegal circled on your “must-watch” list heading into the World Cup, but it became one of the most intriguing matches of Round 1 after both sides pulled upsets in their opening match.
Senegal’s 2-1 win over Poland and Japan’s win over Colombia by the same score threw Group H into chaos, and these two teams now have the opportunity to grab the group by the scruff of its neck heading into the final round of matches.
Senegal’s strength is down the middle, but their ability to play down the flanks against Poland was very impressive. So was the way the Lions of Teranga got back on defense to snuff out Poland’s attempts to counter. Sure, they scored a pair of fluky goals, but Senegal generated more chances and deserved the win, as their 1.5-0.7 edge in expected goals confirms.
Japan also had the better of play in their win over Colombia, but Samurai Blue were helped out by a third-minute red card to Carlos Sanchez and the penalty-kick goal that followed. Additionally, Japan didn’t face a full-strength Colombia side as James Rodriguez sat out the first 60 minutes with an injury.
The odds suggest that the most likely outcome is a Senegal win. At +128, the market is suggesting the Lions of Teranga have ~43.9% chance of winning. I actually think that is underselling the African side. Not only does Senegal have Sadio Mane, who didn’t really have much of an impact in their win over Poland, but the rest of the core is much stronger than Japan’s. Kalidou Koulibaly is fast becoming one of the world’s best centerbacks, and Idrissa Gana Gueye and Alfred N’Diaye make life very difficult for opponents in the middle of the field.
I expect a better performance from Mane, but even if he is shut down, Senegal’s other scoring threats, M’Baye Niang and Ismaila Sarr, will pick up the slack. I think there’s good value on Senegal at this number.
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06-24-18 02:06 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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Poland vs. Colombia, 2 p.m. ET, FOX
Poland +230
Colombia +128
Draw +235
Bet to Watch:
Over 2.25 goals* -120
James Rodriguez’s injury — which cost him the chance to start against Japan last week — put a cloud on the festivities for the Colombians in their opening match. That cloud turned into a monsoon just three minutes into the game when Carlos Sanchez received a red card for a hand ball on what likely was going to be a goal anyway. Japan converted the ensuing penalty kick, and Los Cafeteros were down, 1-0, just six minutes into the game.
The South Americans fought back into the game and got an equalizer from a Juan Quintero free kick, but they were unable to hold onto the draw after some dodgy managerial decisions from Jose Pekerman. He made substitutions that prevented Colombia from having the legs and personnel to maintain the draw as his subs indicated he was trying to steal the win. Considering the circumstances, that was ill-advised.
Poland, on the other hand, were overwhelmed by Senegal in their opening match. Their lack of pace was exploited by the African side in counter-attacking situations after they went down, 1-0, in the 37th minute. For the rest of the game Senegal was able to sit back and counter, and the Orly were not able to match their speed down the flanks. Poland’s lack of pace could be a big issue in this matchup, as well.
Colombia will come into this match with their star players relatively fresh. Due to the red card, Juan Cuadrado was subbed out early in the first half and Rodriguez played only 30 minutes. He should benefit from Poland’s lack of agility as his game is built to give the slow-footed Polish defenders fits. And Cuadrado, who was one of the most fouled players in qualification, should draw a few set pieces in dangerous areas.
As we’ve seen already, teams with quality who are in desperate need of a win in their second match are pushing the tempo, and that is opening up the game. That trend should continue in this one, and I expect the scoring chances to come in bunches at both ends. And with the quality that both teams have in the box with Radamel Falcao and Robert Lewandowski, you should expect this game to see both teams throw everything they have into getting a win, and thus, I expect a few goals in this one.
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06-24-18 02:08 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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While it may have taken an injury time winner from Harry Kane, and indeed two set piece goals from the England captain to defeat Tunisia last Monday, the early signs from Gareth Southgate’s men were encouraging.
The Three Lions came out of the traps at a ferocious pace and created numerous opportunities before Nabil Maaloul’s side eventually weathered the storm. Indeed, England could have been three or four goals to the good by the time their opponents equalised from the spot, and they will look to put in a similar first half performance against more modest opposition in Panama.
The World Cup debutants proved that they could compete with Belgium in their opening 45 minutes, but in truth it was a very lacklustre first half display from Roberto Martinez’s men. We’re unlikely to see the same from this England side, who know that a victory would see them through with a game to spare and will want to wrap three points up as early as possible.
One man that could easily have scored last week was Jesse Lingard, whose intelligent runs from deep caused Tunisia all sorts of problems last time out. The Manchester United man could have had a first half hat-trick to his name and while the quality of his finishing was found wanting, failing to score from four attempts, if the 25-year-old can pick up similar goalscoring positions this afternoon then he could be key to victory here.
While prices between 1.50 and 1.60 in the main still represent decent value on that man Kane adding to his tally, you can double that on Lingard to open his World Cup account, and odds of 3.15 on the midfielder to score at any time from Marathon Bet is our value tip in the early kick-off.
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06-24-18 11:50 AM |
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msudogs
Moderator
Registered: Nov 2005
Posts: 65535
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England generated 2.5 expected goals in the first half alone, and 3.5 for the entire game. That is the highest number of any team this tournament. Whether it be the missed penalty call or the numerous deflected misses or straight whiffs of the ball in the area, it is not a stretch to say England could have put up 4 or 5 goals against Tunisia.
The England attack was furious. I saw attempts from all angles and an equal balance of speed up the left and right wings. The way they set up opportunities inside the box were great too. I lost track of how many players got a touch in the box near to the net. A combination of speed and creativity and within the blink of an eye on numerous occasions there were two or three English attackers behind the back line in tight on the keeper threatening. It was great football to watch.
The way that England played against Tunisia is a perfect blueprint to run up the score on Panama. It is no secret, the Central American representatives are bad – really bad. But, I am unsure if it is a mix of age (oldest team in the tournament) and lack of experience (first appearance in country history) or if it was poor game planning and fear that led the team to look drastically different against Belgium than normal.
While they held true to the physical side – to an extent – (18 fouls and 5 yellow cards), the press was non-existent. I had to go back and watch the highlights to believe it. The Panamanian back four let Belgium walk in on them and do what they wish time and time again.
The Panamanian defence was specifically suspect to the change of direction in attack, something England did very well their opening match. Quick bursts of speed from wing in towards centre by Belgium wingers caused both centrebacks to bite instantly and left the opposite side winger cutting in wide open. This simple move led to almost a half dozen scoring chances during the match.
Another weakness of the Panama back line was their ability to mark attackers in the air. There is a clear gap in skill and speed, as anytime Belgian attackers set picks to free up space, it more often than not led to an unmarked man breaking free for the ball. If not for captain Torres playing extremely well, Belgium could have put a couple more into the back of the net.
It is difficult to use a win against Panama as a statement match, but this match is an opportunity for England to change the narrative. They can force Panama back, and play over the top to generate as many scoring opportunities as they wish. I think it is very reasonable to see 3-4 expected goals again and I believe the finishing of chances will be more successful against a much less talented Panama side.
Panama can’t play attacking football without exposing themselves on the backline. The team is filled with old veterans and there is a lot of pride. Although it is an impossible task to get out of this group, this is not a team that will fold and concede defeat. With a loss sending Panama home, after England gets the first goal, the flood gates will open.
A weird mix of market doubt, uncertainty and recency bias has left the price for the -1.5 handicap at 1.83, and that is far to good for me to pass up. This match gets out of hand and England wins comfortably by 2+ goals.
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06-24-18 01:50 PM |
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