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msudogs
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Registered: Nov 2005
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World Cup 2018

The 2018 World Cup begins June 14th in Russia with 32 teams participating in the tournament from six continents. A total of 64 matches will be played in 12 venues located in 11 cities. The final will take place on July 15th at the Luzhniki Stadium in Moscow.

William Hill’s US sportsbooks are reporting the most ticket action (12%) and money wagered (26%) on Germany. The next closest in terms of money wagered are Argentina (15%) and Brazil (10%).

CG Technology’s sportsbooks in Nevada have reported the most action on Brazil (+450) after taking a five-figure wager on the South American squad to win it all.

Old Post 05-06-18 08:04 PM
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Group A

Group A of the World Cup is wide open. It includes host Russia and perennial World Cup overachiever Uruguay. It also has two teams from the Middle East — an extremely weak Saudi Arabia side, and Egypt, one of the tournament’s most interesting teams.

Egypt’s fate will be determined by just how far their one superstar, Mohamed Salah, can carry them. Salah is having an unbelievable season, and with a World Cup, he might be the first player in more than a decade to seriously challenge Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo for Player of the Year awards in world soccer.

Unlike Any Other Winger
It’s impossible to overstate just how good Salah’s year has been. In his first Premier League season, he leads the league in goals with 29, five more than Harry Kane, and nine more than Sergio Aguero in third. He also has nine assists, tied for fifth most in the Premier League. He has taken Liverpool from a good team, to a great one. They’re currently in the semifinals of the Champions League, where they are favored to get past Roma (coincidentally Salah’s old team) and reach the finals, a feat which was close to unthinkable a year ago.
Salah plays as a very attacking right winger. This allows him to terrorize defenders by cutting in onto his favored left foot to either line up shots or passes. One of the things that makes Salah stand out, however, is that while many goal-scoring wingers spend a lot of time cutting inside to shoot from distance, Salah takes relatively few bad shots. He’s only averaging 4.33 shots per 90 minutes of play. A remarkably small number given that he’s averaging 0.78 expected goals per game. What sets Salah apart isn’t so much his ability to cut inside from the right wing and get shots, it’s how good the shots are when he gets them.

The Pharoahs
With Egypt, Salah also sometimes plays more centrally as a forward. On Liverpool he has the luxury of being part of a dynamic front three. For his national team he is the standout star. It’s easier for defenses to focus on Salah when he’s playing for the Pharoahs, and when he plays on the wing he risks being taken out of the match by better teams who will simply deny the rest of Egypt’s players chances to get him the ball. Playing centrally can mitigate that problem, although not entirely remove it. Salah’s ability to influence games will be the key question when it comes to who progresses from Group A.

Generally speaking, singularly great players aren’t enough to propel teams through tournaments. Then again, most players aren’t coming off seasons as singularly great as Salah’s has been. Despite the buckets of goals Salah has poured in this season, and the way he helped propel Liverpool to their deepest Champions League run in over a decade, Egypt remain underdogs to progress.

The Path to the Knockout Rounds
The Pharoahs’ opening match against Uruguay will be key. The South American side tends to play extremely conservatively and will likely be happy to defend deep in their own territory and make sure the Egyptian star gets no space to stretch his legs into.

If Salah can wriggle his way through Uruguay the way he’s managed to bamboozle defenses across Europe this season, then Egypt will likely find their way into the knockout stages. If not, then Salah will have to carry his team to a result against Russia in front of a hostile home crowd. If Egypt can manage even just two draws in those first two games they will have a chance of advancing as they take on Saudi Arabia in their final group stage match.

Egypt might be an underdog to make the knockout rounds, but betting against Mohammed Salah isn’t a good idea. It hasn’t worked for anybody in the past year, don’t expect it to start working now.

Old Post 05-06-18 08:06 PM
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With the World Cup fewer than two months away, the thoughts of so many soccer fans whose club sides no longer have anything to play for between now and the end of the season have already turned to the tournament in Russia.

The time for managers to name their squads for this summer is fast approaching, with most teams having just two friendlies left before the real action commences on June 14th.

A Vulnerable Favorite?
However, while host Russia’s curtain-raiser with Saudi Arabia will go down as one of the World Cup’s most underwhelming opening matches, we won’t have to wait long for a real treat. The next day, all eyes will be on an Iberian derby as Spain take on Portugal in a match that could immediately put pressure on the loser.

With Spain entering the tournament among the favorites, it could be a case of deja vu for the Portugal, who faced Germany in their opening group game four years ago. It was a match that Portugal lost, 4-0, to the eventual winners, and one that they ultimately failed to recover from, exiting the competition in the group stage. One wouldn’t bet against a repeat considering the abject nature of their performances against Egypt and The Netherlands a few weeks ago.
It took two-injury time goals from Cristiano Ronaldo to overcome the former, while a heavy defeat to the latter came as a real shock and served as a stark reminder that despite their success in France in 2016, Portugal are still very flawed. Stop their aforementioned star man — which is admittedly easier said than done — and Fernando Santos’ side generally lacks ideas in the final third.

Huge Opportunity
If either Morocco or Iran can claim all three points in Group B’s other opening match, the winner will give itself a fantastic chance of reaching the knockout rounds. And Morocco unquestionably have the stronger squad. In fact, the African nation may well be a dark horse this summer to reach the tournament’s latter stages, with coach Herve Renard not only boasting an impressive tournament record but also a very solid squad.

Despite the fact that this is the Frenchman’s first time managing at an international tournament outside of Africa, the 49-year-old is the only man to have won the African Cup of Nations with two different teams. He also has experience in upsetting the odds, too, with the first of the aforementioned titles coming while he was in charge of Zambia back in 2012.

Renard’s current players with Morocco are far better than the ones he had with Ivory Coast and Zambia. And even in a group with Spain and Portugal, the Atlas Lions aren’t a side to be underestimated.

Don’t Underestimate the Atlas Lions
The vast majority of the squad are plying their trade in Europe, most notably in The Netherlands’ Eredivisie, and Renard has managed to organize the side to be very hard to beat, knowing that the technical quality is no issue. The key to that solidity is captain Medhi Benatia, who has played for some top clubs in Europe including Juventus, Roma and Bayern Munich.

The experienced centerback marshalled a defence that didn’t concede a single goal in qualifying — the only side in Russia this summer to achieve that feat — despite facing some strong opposition in the form of Ivory Coast and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s Gabon. It was perhaps the most competitive group in CAF qualifying and one that Morocco navigated superbly.

Nabil Dirar and Real Madrid youngster Achraf Hakimi are strong fullbacks and there’s good protection in front of the defense from the experienced Karim El Ahmadi and Romain Saiss. Morocco also possess an enviable array of attacking players. And while Ajax playmaker Hakim Ziyech is the star, the likes of Southampton’s Sofiane Boufal and Schalke’s Amine Harit also provide flair and ammunition to lone striker Khalid Boutaib.

At least one nation springs a surprise and advances more deeply through the tournament than many expect — with Costa Rica perhaps providing the biggest shock last time around — and Morocco could be that team this year. Should Morocco (who are +500 to advance from Group B) make it out of the first round, a favorable draw against one of the top two teams from Group A — by far the weakest group this summer — awaits. So reaching the quarterfinals is a distinct possibility for the North African side.

Old Post 05-06-18 08:06 PM
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We’re under 50 days until the big kickoff in Russia this summer, so heads are beginning to turn to the World Cup, with titles being wrapped ahead of time in the majority of Europe’s major leagues.

Now is a good time to break down whether any nations are being undervalued in the odds, and following on from last week’s assessment of Morocco, there are still a number of squads that aren’t to be underestimated. That much is true of Serbia, who will be confident of escaping the group stages despite being drawn alongside Brazil in Group E.

Politics Aside
That said, the Eagles approach the tournament in somewhat unusual circumstances following the sacking of the man who led them through qualifying, Slavoljub Muslin. It’s been a mixed bag from replacement Mladen Krstajic in four friendlies since stepping up from a coaching role, and his appointment is certainly a gamble, given that his first competitive match as a manager will come at a World Cup — talk about a baptism of fire!

It was also a risk for the rookie boss to strip Branislav Ivanovic — who is about to set the record for most appearances with Serbia this summer — of the captaincy just months before the main event. The equally experienced Aleksandar Kolarov is his replacement, with Nemanja Matic (pictured above) set to serve as his deputy.

The fact that Serbia boast a trio of players who have won the Premier League — among numerous other titles — highlights that if they can settle any off-field disputes, the Orlovi have enough quality to cause real problems of their own. Thanks to an impressive blend of experience and youth, not to mention brains and brawn, Serbia have the look of an unenviable opponent — even for Neymar and company.

Having qualified from a group that included three teams that reached Euro 2016 — a feat they themselves couldn’t manage — Serbia may have been fortunate not to be drawn against a big hitter, but didn’t really have any free ones in that regard like so many other teams. Ireland, Wales and Austria all fell by the wayside, and one wouldn’t bet against Switzerland and Costa Rica doing the same in June.

While the latter proved four years ago that their presence shouldn’t be taken for granted, it’s the Swiss who are favorites to finish runners-up to the Selecao in Group E. However, too much credit has been thrust their way in the FIFA rankings and the odds. The Swiss, even though they had a relatively easy qualifying schedule, narrowly beat Northern Ireland in a playoff by scoring on a penalty that shouldn’t have been awarded. All in all, Vladimir Petkovic’s side haven’t really improved in recent years, while the same couldn’t be said of this Serbian squad.

Meet the Eagles
The Serbs are very strong in the middle of the park, as their midfield is anchored by Matic and Crystal Palace captain Luka Milivojevic. The latter has enjoyed a breakout season and is strong over dead balls, and could be the player whom this side builds around.

The fact that Serbia haven’t really tapped into the considerable talents of Lazio’s man-mountain, Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, is somewhat baffling. The 23-year-old has been a star in Serie A for the better part of two years, and he could help to forge one of the most imposing and impressive midfield trios this summer. Milinkovic-Savic could be the link man between the physical backline and the creative forces up front like Torino’s Adem Ljajic, Southampton’s Dusan Tadic and the versatile Andrija Zivkovic of Benfica. The latter is an excellent little player on the ball and could be one to watch in Russia with regard to catching the eye ahead of a big-money move for next season.

We’ve not yet touched upon a crucial cog in any successful international side, particularly in major tournaments when the margins are often so fine. Any team hoping to go deep needs a goal scorer, and in Aleksandar Mitrovic, Serbia have one that is bang-on in form and crucially very fresh with regard to his fitness.

Mitrovic was hardly given a look at Newcastle in the first half of the season under Rafael Benitez but has been outstanding since a loan move to Fulham in January, firing the Cottagers into contention for automatic promotion to the Premier League. The powerful and unpredictable front man has 11 goals in 13 Championship starts and scored crucial goals in qualifying for the World Cup, too. A nightmare for defenders to face, Mitrovic will also be keen to impress potential suitors and is more than capable of match-winning moments.

Not An Easy Road
If they play to their potential, there’s little doubt in my mind that Serbia (+650 to win Group E, +100 to advance) have the second-strongest squad in Group E. The issue that they face is that should they finish as runners-up to outstanding favorites Brazil, a meeting with Germany will likely await.

They won’t be an easy opponent for either, but odds on the round of 16 being the Serbs’ most likely stage of elimination are worth exploring, as that bet may offer better value than a bet on reaching that stage in the first place.

Old Post 05-06-18 08:08 PM
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Four years ago, James Rodriguez (commonly known as simply James) exploded onto the international scene. At the time he was a 22-year-old prospect with a sweet left foot. He had just transferred as part of a big-money move from Porto (Portugal) to Monaco (France), with whom he scored an impressive nine goals and contributed 13 assists. It’s safe to say Rodriguez entered the 2014 World Cup on the verge of stardom. He left it a superstar.

He carried Colombia to the quarterfinals of the tournament, scoring six times in five games (and winning the tournament’s Golden Boot award) while adding two assists. When the tournament ended, he completed his meteoric rise and transferred to Real Madrid.

The Second Act

Categorizing the last four years of Rodriguez’s career is challenging. He’s certainly been successful. He spent three seasons with Madrid and won the Champions League twice and the La Liga title once, although each season, he played a progressively smaller part. His appearances declined from 29 to 26 to 22 and his minutes dropped even more noticeably going from 2,292 to 1,517 to 1,181. Over three years Rodriguez’s time on the field basically got chopped in half. But he was always effective when he was out there. His goal tallies were always strong, at 13, seven and eight, and he was always creative with 13, eight and six assists, respectively. It wasn’t so much that James wasn’t playing well as that he was the victim of a crowded Real Madrid attacking corps with Cristiano Ronaldo as its focus and stars such as Gareth Bale, Karim Benzema and Isco increasingly ensconced ahead of him in the rotation.

This year rather than try to squeeze him into the squad, Real Madrid loaned him out to Bayern Munich. There he’s played a slightly deeper midfield role, dropping back to become more of a true central midfielder rather than either an attacking midfielder or a winger like he was at Real Madrid. He’s still had to share time with a host of talented attackers with Bayern, but he has performed strongly, with six goals and 10 assists in only 1,443 minutes.

Los Cafeteros

It’s true that Rodriguez hasn’t grown into a superstar since the last World Cup. He’s turning 27 in July, well into the prime of his career, and if that leap into the stratosphere hasn’t happened for him yet, then it probably never will. But, just because he hasn’t dominated the club game doesn’t mean he can’t dominate the World Cup this summer. What has held Rodriguez back is that for whatever reason, he has never become a dominant player when surrounded by other dominant players. That’s not how things work when he plays for his country.

With Los Cafeteros, James remains the team’s unquestioned superstar. Since the last World Cup, he led the team to the quarterfinals of Copa America, where they lost to Lionel Messi and Argentina on penalties and then the semifinals of the Copa America Centenario, where they lost to eventual winners Chile. He also led them in scoring during World Cup qualifying with six goals and in assists with four.

This summer Colombia has a very fortunate draw in the group stage, but a fairly unlucky draw overall. Their group consists of Poland, Japan and Senegal, and should Colombia win they will face the second-place finisher out of a group that consists of England, Belgium, Panama and Tunisia. As it stands right now, Colombia have the eighth-highest Elo ranking in the world. England are seventh and Belgium are ninth. No matter what Colombia do, they’re likely going to face a team roughly equal to them in talent during the first knockout round. That’s the moment when Rodriguez will truly need to deliver in order for Colombia to progress.

Four years ago it appeared James Rodriguez was going to be a star. Instead he became a very important player on some of the world’s best teams. If Rodriguez has failed, it’s only in that he becomes a complementary player when he’s on the pitch alongside the best players in the game. However, he is Colombia’s centerpiece. There’s no reason to believe that James Rodriguez won’t look like a superstar again this summer in Russia. The problem is that given Colombia’s possible knockout-round opponents, even that might not be enough.

Old Post 05-06-18 08:08 PM
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Group A: Russia (-265 to -288) vs. Saudi Arabia

Agree or Disagree?

In the very first match of the World Cup, Russia’s odds to win have moved from -265 to -288 while Saudi Arabia’s chances of an upset worsened from +980 to +1236. FIFA would love for the host nation to start the tournament off on the right foot but Russia are likely to be missing a few key players. The price is way too high in this match, as are Russia’s odds to advance from the group.

Old Post 05-06-18 10:38 PM
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Group A: Egypt (+425 to +380) vs. Uruguay

Agree or Disagree?

The driving force behind Egypt’s line movement has to be the dominance of Mo Salah, who has been scoring for fun for Liverpool (43 goals in all competitions this season). I backed Egypt a few months ago to advance from Group A at +160 odds, and bettors have happily boarded the bandwagon as well. I’m hoping Egypt don’t become too much of a trendy underdog, but I do agree with this line movement for their opening match against Uruguay.

Old Post 05-06-18 10:38 PM
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Group C: Peru (+276 to +255) vs. Denmark

Agree or Disagree?

I’m already on Peru to advance from this group as I think they’re one of the more underrated countries in this tournament, so I absolutely agree with the early action across the market. Peru have a great chance to advance from Group C and this will be the pivotal match in their quest to do so. With a win or draw against Denmark in the opener, they’ll be in fine shape to progress.

Old Post 05-06-18 10:38 PM
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Group C: France (-448 to -485) vs. Australia

Agree or Disagree?

I’m fully on board with this early line movement and don’t expect much from Australia in this tournament. The Aussies have actually had decent showings in the past two World Cups despite losing all three matches in 2014 (vs. Spain, Chile, Netherlands) but I find this to be a weaker squad. I think we see three more losses in 2018 (vs. France, Denmark, Peru), and their odds to go winless are listed at -125.

Old Post 05-06-18 10:38 PM
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HoustonFan
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World's greatest sporting event. I cannot wait.




"Just Got Paid" -- ZZ Top
2008,2009 NCAA HOF Battle of the Brackets Champion

Old Post 05-07-18 01:41 AM
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Traderpro
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HoustonFan, I agree with you.It draws considerably more interest from me then Olympics do.

Old Post 05-11-18 09:50 PM
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In the months leading up to every World Cup, there are inevitable injuries that keep players from participating.

Below is a list of players who suffered recent injuries along with their current statuses for the 2018 World Cup.

GROUP A

Egypt:
Mohamed Elneny (ankle) – PROBABLE
Defensive midfielder Mohamed Elneny looked to suffer a bad ankle injury in Arsenal’s Premier League match against West Ham, but was deemed not to break anything. He’ll likely miss the remainder of the club season, but is very likely to return in time for the World Cup.

Russia:
Aleksandr Kokorin (knee) – DOUBTFUL
Georgi Dzhikiya (knee) – DOUBTFUL
Viktor Vasin (knee) – DOUBTFUL
A trio of Russian players all look to be doubtful — Kokorin is a striker, Dzhikiya a center-back and Vasin another center-back. This is bad news for a country I’ve already taken to finish dead last in Group A.

GROUP C

France:
Laurent Koscielny (Achilles) – OUT
The Arsenal defender had to be stretchered off early in their Europa League semifinal second leg at Atletico Madrid with a torn Achilles. He’ll be out for about six months, a huge blow for France.

Dimitri Payet (hamstring) – OUT
The 32-year-old forward/midfielder injured his hamstring in the Europa League Final against Atletico Madrid and was left off of France’s roster for the World Cup.

GROUP D

Argentina:
Fernando Gago (knee) – QUESTIONABLE
Gago suffered a setback in his recovery and is in serious danger of missing the World Cup. The Boca Juniors midfielder likes to sit back and make plays from a deeper role and would certainly be included on the roster if fully healthy.

Sergio Aguero (knee) – QUESTIONABLE
Despite Argentina being one of the favorites to win it all, there are a ton of question marks surrounding the squad that manager Jorge Sampaoli will select. Aguero is in a race to get fit in time for June, and Argentina have plenty of other attacking options from which to choose.

Lucas Biglia (back) – QUESTIONABLE
Biglia was featured in all seven of Argentina’s 2014 World Cup matches, but his chances in 2018 are up in the air. After he suffered a fracture of the transverse processes of the first two lumbar vertebrae, the prognosis doesn’t sound good.

Iceland:
Gylfi Sigurdsson (knee) – QUESTIONABLE
After Iceland’s successful run in the 2016 Euros, many of its fans are hoping to see the club at full strength at the 2018 World Cup. Unfortunately that may not be the case as striker Gylfi Sigurdsson is recovering from a knee ligament injury from March.

Nigeria:
Oghenekaro Etebo (muscle) – PROBABLE
Not a lot of details surround the Las Palmas midfielder’s injury, but he’s missed training this week and could be something that lingers. I’ll list him probable for now until more news is known.

GROUP E

Brazil:
Neymar (foot) – PROBABLE
A foot injury back in February put Neymar’s World Cup hopes in jeopardy, but the Brazilian star is on track to be ready for June. Neymar is one of the best players in the world, and his absence would have a big impact on Brazil’s odds.

Alex Sandro (hamstring) – QUESTIONABLE
Brazil also have concerns about defender Alex Sandro’s injury as hamstrings can be very touchy.

Dani Alves (knee) – OUT
The Brazilian defender was injured in PSG’s Coupe de France Final and has officially been ruled out of the World Cup. He’s been a crucial component for Brazil and they’ll have to replace him with another defender on the right side.

Serbia:
Matija Nastasic (knee) – DOUBTFUL
Nastasic was a big part of FC Schalke’s great defensive unit this past season but may not recover from a knee injury in time for the World Cup.

GROUP F

Germany:
Jerome Boateng (thigh) – QUESTIONABLE
With Boateng suffering another injury during Champions League action, his club season is over. This would be a big blow for Germany’s defensive back-line.

Manuel Neuer (foot) – QUESTIONABLE
The star goalkeeper has been out for a while with a broken foot and still hasn’t recovered enough to fully train. Fortunately they have another star, Marc-Andre ter Stegen, to fill in, but it never hurts to have all the best players available.

Mesut Ozil (back) – PROBABLE
The Arsenal midfielder is out for the remainder of the club season but fully expected to be healthy for the World Cup.

Lars Stindl (ankle) – OUT
Stindl will not be part of Germany’s powerful offensive attack over the summer, but fortunately the Germans have other options.

Serge Gnabry (groin) – OUT
While he wasn’t a lock to make the squad by any means, he now has no chance after suffering a groin injury.

GROUP G

Belgium:
Michy Batshuayi (ankle) – DOUBTFUL
Batshuayi really came into his own after being loaned to Dortmund from Chelsea, but the striker isn’t looking good to be fit in time for the summer.

England
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (knee) – OUT
The Liverpool workhorse suffered a season-ending knee injury in the Champions League semifinal and will miss this summer for England.

Joe Gomez (ankle) – OUT
While not a star, Gomez was likely to crack the England roster as a defender and provide them with depth off the bench. A recent ankle surgery has ruled him out of contention over the summer, and he’ll also miss Liverpool’s Champions League Final on May 26 vs. Real Madrid.

Tunisia:
Youssef Msakni (knee) – OUT
Tunisia’s 27-year-old star midfielder suffered a knee injury in early April, which will keep him out the entire summer. This puts a huge damper on Tunisia’s hopes of advancing past the group stage.

Old Post 05-19-18 02:32 PM
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Teams to watch for

The first bet I made was Argentina (9/1) to win the 2018 World Cup. I also wagered on Messi and company to win the 2014 World Cup and just missed out on cashing after Germany ripped their hearts out in extra time of the final.

There will be plenty of Argentina doubters this time around saying that there’s not enough support around Messi and that could be partially true, especially in a difficult Group D. However, their lack of talent is overstated and they still have the best player in the world, so I feel confident backing the South American giants.

The darkhorse that I’ve bet is Belgium (14/1) despite their struggles in recent big tournaments. They’re usually a trendy pick but public bettors may be souring on them this time around, and could go under the radar leading up to the tournament.

In terms of longshots, I have a liking toward Mexico (100/1) and Nigeria (250/1), although the better values are on each team to qualify from their group. Mexico’s currently listed at +135 to advance from Group F, while Nigeria is listed at +250 to advance from Group D.

Teams to avoid

A couple teams I would absolutely avoid are Russia (40/1) and Sweden (85/1). I don’t think either country has any realistic shot of coming close to a World Cup title, and both will likely struggle just to advance from their groups. I loved fading Russia at the 2016 Euros and will be looking forward to doing it again at the 2018 World Cup.

Old Post 05-19-18 02:34 PM
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A referee due to work the World Cup next month has been banned for life in Saudi Arabia following match-fixing allegations. Fahad Al Mirdasi was chosen by FIFA to officiate the World Cup long before this scandal, but the Saudi Arabia Football Federation (SAFF) has now suspended him for life.

The main incident occurred last Saturday in the King’s Cup final between Al Ittihad and Al Faisaly. The now-banned match official, Al Mirdasi, offered to fix the game in favor of Al Ittihad, according to SAFF. The payment transaction was conducted through WhatsApp, an international messaging service.

A person affiliated with the Al Ittihad club reported the messages, and Al Mirdasi admitted to the corruption after being taken into police custody.

In typical FIFA fashion, it has requested more information from SAFF, which believes he should not be permitted to officiate in the 2018 World Cup. SAFF would like him to be banned for life on the international level.

A FIFA-listed official since 2011, Al Mirdasi is only 32 years old. He officiated last year’s Confederations Cup third-place match between Portugal and Mexico in Russia, and was one of five Arab referees scheduled to work the 2018 World Cup.

The importance of regulated betting markets cannot be overstated since match-fixing and corruption will always be potential problems. With proper oversight, referees such as Al Mirdasi won’t be able to get away with breaking the law. Now, it’s up to FIFA to act in an appropriate manner and also ban him for life.

Old Post 05-20-18 06:48 PM
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Below the three most lopsided public wagers for the opening group matches

Croatia (69%) vs. Nigeria
Moneyline Odds: Croatia -108, Nigeria +360, Draw +246, Total 2.5 (u-150)

Croatia (-108) are the third-most popular bet in the opening group matches, receiving nearly 70% of tickets to beat Nigeria.

I’m surprised to see such lopsided betting going against Nigeria considering they’ve been one of the best African nations over the last 25 years, and Croatia haven’t fared well in recent World Cups. Obviously past competitions don’t matter much, but public bettors tend to base their selections off previous games and tournaments. Many of Croatia’s key players do play on the top teams in Spain and Italy, so that could be a potential reason for the public love.

I’m on the other side of things as I really love this Nigeria squad and already bet them to advance from Group D at +240. They’ve got a number of up-and-coming playmakers like Alex Iwobi and Kelechi Ihenacho, as well as a slew of other Premier League players. They’re always a tricky team to play on the World Cup stage and I can see them springing an upset this summer.

Despite the heavy public action on Croatia, there’s been very little line movement around the betting market. This is a good indication that there hasn’t been any sharp or smart wagers on Croatia. The opening game will be critical for Nigeria’s chances of advancing, and they need to get a win/draw in order to have a real shot at the Round of 16.

There’s still plenty of time for odds and betting percentages to change but it’s looking like Nigeria will be a strong contrarian pick for the opener.

Fun fact about Nigeria: They’ve been in the same World Cup group as Argentina in the last three World Cups, and five of the last six. I was fortunate enough to be in attendance for Nigeria-Argentina at Foxboro in the 1994 World Cup at a very young age of 8, and it was one of the coolest events I’ve ever been to. They were both in Group D that year as well.

Poland (77%) vs. Senegal
Moneyline Odds: Poland +132, Senegal +259, Draw +216, Total 2 (o-122)

Poland is another European country getting the bulk of early action against an African nation. The Poles have received nearly 80% of tickets since odds opened up, which is especially lopsided considering the +132 price tag.

If you don’t know much about Senegal, then you should. They have the potential to be a sleeper team with most of their players playing in Europe at the club level, including Sadio Mane (Liverpool) and Kalidou Koulibaly (Napoli). A big bulk of their roster plays professionally in England and France, and they’ve got a nice mix of youth and veteran leadership.

The public has no doubts about Poland winning the opening match but much like the Croatia-Nigeria match, there’s been little line movement. The low total of 2 goals hasn’t scared bettors away either, but this match has all the early makings of a draw.

Sweden (81%) vs. South Korea
Moneyline Odds: Sweden +116, South Korea +280, Draw +235, Total 2 (o-135)

Sweden are the most popular bet of the opening group matches with 81% of moneyline tickets against South Korea. Some of that can be attributed to the fact that fans/bettors thought Zlatan Ibrahimovic would come out of international retirement and suit up for Sweden this summer, but that rumor has officially been squashed.

Unlike the other two lopsided matches, there’s actually been a little bit of line movement in this game with Sweden moving from +123 to +116 at Pinnacle. It’s not a huge move by any means, but the market did have to adjust slightly which has simply created more value on the other side.

Sweden are still a good team without Ibrahimovic, but they’re in a tough group and I’ve taken them to finish last (+250) in Group F. I really don’t think there’s much separating Sweden and South Korea, and I hope the public continues to hammer Sweden. I’ll surely be going contrarian and taking South Korea to win/draw.

Old Post 05-20-18 06:50 PM
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Argentina GK Sergio Romero is the latest player to be ruled out of the 2018 World Cup due to injury.

Old Post 05-25-18 12:34 AM
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Soccer is a widely-bet sport worldwide, and there are a number of different ways to bet an individual game. There are also all sorts of competitions with varying rules, so it’s always good to be informed before placing a bet.

1) Betting the three-way moneyline
As the name entails, there are three options when betting the three-way moneyline:

Team A wins
Team B wins
Team A and Team B draw
Three-way moneyline results are graded solely on 90 minutes of play, also known as ‘Regular Time’. This includes any injury or stoppage time added by the referee’s discretion, but does not include overtimes or penalty shootouts.

For example, Argentina played Germany in the 2014 World Cup Final and the closing three-way moneyline was:

Germany +130
Argentina +255
Draw +230
Argentina and Germany were tied, 0-0, after 90 minutes of regulation, meaning the Draw +230 cashed. Betting on Germany (+130) or Argentina (+255) lost.

2) Betting the two-way moneyline
Another way of betting soccer is taking the two-way moneyline, which is offered in two simple ways: Double Chance and Draw No Bet. Both are graded solely on 90 minutes of regulation.

Double Chance means you’re betting on a specific team to win/draw, or either team to win. The three possible results are:

Team A wins or draws
Team B wins or draws
Team A wins or Team B wins
Here’s an example:

Germany/Draw -215
Argentina/Draw -165
Germany/Argentina -200
For each bet, you’re essentially just eliminating one of the results.

Draw No Bet is a wager that eliminates the prospect of the draw completely, so the only two potential results are:

Team A wins
Team B wins
Since the draw is taken out of the equation, these odds are usually inflated on the favorite.

For example:

Germany -200
Argentina +150
If the game ends in a draw in regulation, then all bets are refunded and considered “No Action”. This was the case in the 2014 World Cup Final since the game was tied after 90 minutes.

3) Betting goal lines (aka spreads)
Similar to betting the Two-Way Moneyline, the Goal Line is a type of wager that eliminates at least one outcome. Goal Lines are similar to Puck Lines in hockey and Point Spreads in football or basketball.

A Goal Line is typically -0.5 goals in soccer, but for games with big favorites, the Goal Line may be higher like -1.5 or -2.5.

Goal Line odds for a World Cup match between Argentina and Iran look like this:

Argentina -2.5 goals (+110)
Iran +2.5 goals (-120)
When dealing with goal lines or spreads, there’s always juice associated, just like an NFL spread or NBA spread.

If you bet on Argentina -2.5 goals, then to win the bet they must win by three goals or more. It you bet on Iran +2.5 goals, that means to win the bet Iran can win, draw or lose by one or two goals.

4) Betting totals
Totals in soccer work much differently than they do in other sports and can be shown in multiples of .25 goals. Since scoring is minimal compared to other sports, bookmakers will often set a total of 2.25 or 2.75.

For example, if you bet on the Over 2.25 goals, half your bet is placed on “Over 2” and the other half of your bet is placed on “Over 2.5”.

If the game ends, 1-1, then you lose your bet on Over 2.5, and are refunded your bet on Over 2. If the game ends with three goals or more, you would win both your bets.

Another example is if you bet on Under 2.75 goals. Half of your bet is placed on Under 2.5 goals and the other half of the bet is on Under 3 goals. If the game lands on three, you’d lose half your bet (Under 2.5) and refunded the other half (Under 3).

Old Post 05-25-18 12:36 AM
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Uruguay have already moved from -142 to -162 at Pinnacle within minutes of Salah coming off in the Champions League final.

Old Post 05-26-18 09:30 PM
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After an exciting opening 25 minutes of the Champions League final between Liverpool and Real Madrid, things took a turn for the worse. Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah was taken down by Real Madrid’s Sergio Ramos and was forced to come off with a shoulder injury just minutes later.

This was devastating not only for Reds supporters, but also for Egypt, who begin their World Cup run in less than three weeks against Uruguay. The market wasted no time reacting to the news.

Salah’s subbing-off even caused Twitter to crash briefly. Within minutes of the potentially serious injury, Uruguay moved from -142 to -170 at Pinnacle for the World Cup opener against Egypt. The line movement was likely caused by both the market getting ahead of the news and bettors getting down on Uruguay, sensing big value if Salah is ruled out.

Egypt’s odds to beat Uruguay in the opener moved from +490 to +715, roughly a 5% decrease in implied win probability. Not only did the line move in the opener, but it also moved for their following group match against Russia. Egypt’s odds to beat the hosts drifted from +300 to +365, a 3.5% decrease in win probability, while Russia moved from +104 to -120.

The Pharaohs had become a popular pick to advance from Group A and could still do it without their star Salah, but there’s no replacing what he brings to team. Egypt is currently 170-1 to win the World Cup, +475 to win Group A, and +130 to advance from Group A (odds via 5Dimes).

Old Post 05-26-18 11:08 PM
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Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah has tweeted that he is “confident” he will be available for the World Cup finals with Egypt this summer, after his shoulder injury in the Champions League final.

The Liverpool player wrote: “It was a very tough night, but I’m a fighter. Despite the odds, I’m confident that I’ll be in Russia to make you all proud. Your love and support will give me the strength I need.”

Loris Karius, meanwhile, says he is “infinitely sorry” for the mistakes he made in Liverpool’s defeat against Real Madrid on Saturday. The 24-year-old German goalkeeper was in tears at the final whistle in Kiev after the Reds’ 3-1 defeat.

The Spanish side’s first goal came when Karim Benzema charged down an attempted throw-out by Karius, and the goalkeeper then allowed a long-range Gareth Bale shot to slip through his grasp for the third.

Karius tweeted on Sunday afternoon: “Haven’t really slept until now ... the scenes are still running through my head again and again.

“I’m infinitely sorry to my team-mates, for you fans, and for all the staff. I know that I messed it up with the two mistakes and let you all down.”

The goalkeeper added: “Thank you to our unbelievable fans who came to Kiev and held my back, even after the game. I don’t take that for granted and once again it showed me what a big family we are. Thank you and we will come back stronger.”

Karius had earlier told Talksport: “I lost my team the game. I’m sorry for everyone – from the team, from the whole club – that the mistakes cost dearly. If I could go back in time I would. I feel sorry for my team. I know I let them down. It’s very hard right now but that’s the life of a goalkeeper. These goals cost us the title, basically.”

The former Liverpool goalkeeper Ray Clemence said Karius would have to live with his mistakes “for the rest of his life”.

Clemence, who was in goal for Liverpool’s first three European Cup wins including the 1-0 victory against Real in 1981, told BBC’s Sportsweek programme: “He’s made two horrendous errors at vital times in the game and he has to live with that.

“He’s got the whole summer to think about it and when you make mistakes in massive games like that they will be with you for the rest of your life, because people will remember them and keep reminding you of them.”

Old Post 05-27-18 07:48 PM
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