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dwight007
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Aug 2003
Posts: 771

Las Vegas Sharps Report= NFL Week 14

There were several NFL games early this week sitting right near the key numbers of 3, 7, and 10. Sharps in Las Vegas (professional wagerers) made their preferences known either with early betting, or with early passing that exposed what they were waiting for later in the week once squares (the public) start to bet. Let’s go game-by-game through Sunday’s schedule to see how the Sharps are betting Week 14 action.

Note that we’ll only be talking about Over/Unders in games where Sharps have moved the opener at least a point.

BALTIMORE AT WASHINGTON:
This game opened at pick-em, but was bet up to Washington -2.5 due to last weekend’s action. Baltimore was exposed again as a team that struggles vs. playoff caliber teams. Washington might have established themselves as a playoff caliber team with a Monday Night win over the New York Giants. It’s telling that the line STOPPED at -2.5 rather than going all the way to the key number of -3. Sharps would come in on Baltimore with the full field goal. Sharps aren’t as pessimistic about Robert Griffin III now as they were before the season started. He’s earned his stripes. He just hasn’t earned to right to lay the full three to a playoff team yet. The Sharps liked Washington at -2 or less, but would take Baltimore at +3. If the line freezes at 2.5, Sharps will be heavily involved with Baltimore +8.5 in two-team teasers because it moves past both the 3 and the 7 with a six-point teaser adjustment.

KANSAS CITY AT CLEVELAND:
Sharps made a move on Cleveland here, which is surprising because that’s against their general flow when it comes to non-contenders. Cleveland opened at -5, but is now -6.5. The Browns are not a public team, so this wasn’t a matter of taking a position before square money came in. There was some anti-Chiefs sentiment, but this was mostly because of Cleveland’s improved play of late. Their win over Pittsburgh looked better after those Steelers with Charlie Batch beat Baltimore. We expect that Sharp money would come in on the dog were the line to climb one more half-point all the way to the critical number of seven.

SAN DIEGO AT PITTSBURGH:
This line went up very recently because it was only announced Thursday that Ben Roethlisberger was given the go-ahead to play. Oddsmakers posted Pittsburgh -7 to see what the money did. Sharps hit the Steelers right away against the fading Chargers. The line is now -7.5 or -8 as we go to press. That will put the Steelers in the teaser window too, which oddsmakers don’t want to see because the public will love Pittsburgh at full strength against a slumping visitor.

TENNESSEE AT INDIANAPOLIS:
Not much interest in this one. Indy opened at -5.5, and it’s either sat there or shaded down to -5 through the course of the week. Sharp affection for the Colts would have moved the line to at least six in advance of public money on this recent media darling. Sharps prefer the dog(what else is new?), and are waiting to see if they can get +6 or better after square money hits the board. If they have to settle for +5.5 on game day, they will.

NY JETS AT JACKSONVILLE:
The Jets opened at -3, but the line was bet down to Jets -2.5. We’ve told you in the past that it usually takes a lot of money to move off the key number of three. That may not be the case here because oddsmakers weren’t sure initially if they were overstating the Jets case at that number. Sharps do prefer the home underdog, because there hasn’t been a buyback toward the key number. And, Sharps will really like having the Jags in teasers. They don’t trust the Jets’ offense with Mark Sanchez, and want to take advantage of that however they can. Jacksonville is the Sharp side in this game. The total is down from 39.5 to 38.5 or 38, one of the few Over/Under tendencies being shown by Sharps early. Weather just isn’t a factor this year like it’s been in the past. Sharps believe oddsmakers have had time to hone in on the right totals this deep into the season. Only weather or injury news would create an influx of Sharp money.

CHICAGO AT MINNESOTA:
The interest here has been on the total, as an opener of 40.5 is down to 39. That’s obviously not weather related in a dome. The stats guys are expecting a defensive game similar to the 38-point effort these teams had recently…one where Chicago scored some easy points off turnovers. Chicago -3 has stood pat

ATLANTA AT CAROLINA:
Atlanta has opened at -3.5 and stayed there, similar to what we saw when they were hosting the New Orleans Saints recently. If a line opens a half point above a key number (particularly 3!) and doesn’t move, that tells you the favorite is the Sharp side. If the Wise Guys wanted Carolina, they would have gladly pounded the dog at the hook because three is such a common final margin. Sharps wanting a dog will wait at many numbers hoping for something better, but NOT at 3.5, 7.5, or 10.5. Sharps don’t trust Cam Newton with Power Ratings suggesting Atlanta -4 or -4.5 is a better number.

PHILADELPHIA AT TAMPA BAY:
Side and total action here, seemingly keyed by a good Sunday Night outing from quarterback Nick Foles of Philadelphia. Tampa Bay opened at -8.5, but is down to -7.5. The total opened at 45.5 but is now up to 47 or 47.5, with even some early 48’s getting tested. Tampa Bay’s defense is showing signs of fatigue, and Sharps now believe Foles can move the ball vs. a mediocre defense. Sharp money would come in on Tampa Bay at -7. And Tampa Bay is a popular teaser choice for two-teamers because the move crosses the 3 and the 7. A lot of teaser options this week.

ST. LOUIS AT BUFFALO:
Not much interest here. Buffalo opened at -3 and has stayed there. The Rams have impressed the Sharps in their recent battles with San Francisco. But they don’t want to ask the Rams to play well on the road vs. a non-conference team right after an overtime war. Sharps will fade public money if this line moves on game day.

DALLAS AT CINCINNATI:
Another game where the line has been sitting on the home team -3 all week. Sharps have really fallen out of favor with the Cowboys recently because of poor home outings vs. Cleveland, Washington, and Philadelphia. They’re not ready to trust the Bengals at this price because the team is so inconsistent from series to series. It will be a pass unless the public moves the line on game day (possible because this is a prominent early TV matchup)…then Sharps will fade the public.

MIAMI AT SAN FRANCISCO:
The 49ers opened at -10.5. Sharps jumped on Miami to bring the line back to the key number. We mentioned earlier that Sharps won’t wait on a dog at +3.5, +7.5, or +10.5. They take the hoop quickly if it’s offered on a dog they prefer. The total has been bet down from 40 to 39 in what’s expected to be a defensive struggle.

NEW ORLEANS AT NY GIANTS:
Some interest on the NY Giants at the opener of -4.5. We’re now seeing -5 in most places. That’s not near a key number…and there wasn’t enough passion to drive the Giants up to -6. The Saints have extra preparation time in a Thursday vs. Monday situation. That tempered what might have been bigger enthusiasm for the G-Men.

ARIZONA AT SEATTLE:
This line has been frozen solid at Seattle -10 and 35 all week. It’s not expected to be a highly bet game from the public. Seattle might make the playoffs, but they haven’t captured the public’s fancy yet. The East Coast media is more obsessed with Luck and RGIII right now, so Russell Wilson is staying under the radar. Sharps think this game is properly priced, and will only come in to fade public money if any shows up.

DETROIT AT GREEN BAY:
The main interest here has been on the total. The opener of 52.5 was bet down to 50.5. That’s because the first meeting was more defensive than had been expected even though it was played indoors. We’re outdoors, at night this time,which could help defenses even if the Winter has been mild so far. The team side looks to be setting up as a tug-of-war with Green Bay -6.5 backers and Detroit +7 backers.

We’ll be back Monday for a complete review on Sharp betting in the much anticipated Houston-New England game. That might be an AFC Championship preview. At the very least, the AFC Super Bowl representative is likely to be playing in that game based on current odds.

As Always, Good Luck Den!!!

Old Post 12-08-12 08:01 AM
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Zac
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 15654

Thank you.

I'm pushing this back up top.

Old Post 12-09-12 03:30 AM
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tennistudly


Registered: Jul 2007
Posts: 96

thanks dwight

great insight

Old Post 12-09-12 05:55 AM
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Zac
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Mar 2006
Posts: 15654

Good luck!

*

Old Post 12-09-12 04:38 PM
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gregcrtwrght


Registered: Jan 2010
Posts: 496

missed last couple weeks

Here's my picks, all one unit:

#119 - Philadelphia Eagles/Tampa Bay Buccaneers o48 (-110)

#131 - Detroit Lions/Green Bay Packers u49½ (-110)

#105 - Baltimore Ravens +2½ (-110)

#108 - Cleveland Browns -7 (-110)

#111 - Tennessee Titans +5 (-110)

#118 - Carolina Panthers +3 (-110)

#123 - Dallas Cowboys +3½ (-110)

#132 - Green Bay Packers -6½ (-110)

GLTA

Thanks Dwight for sharing

Old Post 12-09-12 05:39 PM
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gregcrtwrght


Registered: Jan 2010
Posts: 496

Results 6-2 (+380)

#119 - Philadelphia Eagles/Tampa Bay Buccaneers o48 (-110) L

#131 - Detroit Lions/Green Bay Packers u49½ (-110) W

#105 - Baltimore Ravens +2½ (-110) L

#108 - Cleveland Browns -7 (-110) W

#111 - Tennessee Titans +5 (-110) W

#118 - Carolina Panthers +3 (-110) W

#123 - Dallas Cowboys +3½ (-110) W

#132 - Green Bay Packers -6½ (-110)W

Tonight got this teaser going:

2 Team - Teaser - 1 unit (-110)

#132 - Green Bay Packers -½
#134 - New England Patriots +2


And this #134 - New England Patriots -4 (-110)

GLTA

Old Post 12-10-12 02:11 PM
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gregcrtwrght


Registered: Jan 2010
Posts: 496

kind of weekend I like

8-2 (+580)

Old Post 12-11-12 04:04 PM
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