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The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping

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pshinnamon
FoxDen Hall of Famer

Registered: Apr 2005
Posts: 6463

Interesting Trend in MLB since 9/1/13

I've noticed especially in my bankroll the losses I have incurred since 9/1/13. I've gone back and tracked since 9/1/13 by betting strictly dogs in every game you would be up. Based on $100.00 plays on every dog meaning you had to get odds of even money or better you would nicely be on the plus side $719.00. My guess is with them bringing in Triple A players and new pitchers for the end of the season the dogs have been barking.
My research was done by using Vegas Insider.com which uses dime odds.

9/1/13 7 winning favorites and 7 winning dogs Dogs +$347.00
9/2/13 8 winning favorites and 7 winning dogs + $59.00
9/3/13 7 winning favorites 6 winning dogs +$31.00
9/4/13 7 winning favorites 6 winning dogs +$61.00
9/5/13 3 winning favorites 3 winning dogs +$205.00
9/6/13 8 winning favorites 6 winning dogs - $151.00
9/7/13 7 winning favorites 7 winning dogs +$198.00
9/8/13 9 winning favorites 4 winning dogs - $276
9/9/13 5 winning favorites 5 winning dogs +$245.00

2 losing days and 7 winning ones +$719.00

Don't know if this is going to hold up or not but I'm going to just blindly bet on all dogs for a while and see what happens. Don't know if this is a trend worth backtracking or not as I don't have the fox sheets now. But I think it would be worthwhile to back track for the last 7 years up to playoff times to see if this is a good trend or not.

Any thoughts please add to this.

Pete




Terpman

Old Post 09-10-13 03:41 PM
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cwin32
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Registered: Apr 2005
Posts: 1952

I remember when Azmat used to post his dogs, he said every April and September were the most profitable months. I have no idea what his filters were, but that seems to be in line with what you are noticing above

Old Post 09-10-13 03:50 PM
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Tex
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Registered: Sep 2003
Posts: 4741

Maybe you could see how it pertains to teams out of the race as opposed to ones still in the hunt




give a man a fish, you feed him for a day, teach a man to fish, he'll sit in a boat and drink beer all day"

Old Post 09-10-13 06:47 PM
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lemgreen
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Registered: Jun 2006
Posts: 2401

A search at sportsdatabase .com

for "Month=9 and line >0"gives:

SU: 1530-2098 (-0.64, 42.2%) avg line: 142.7 / -157.7 on / against: +$1,571 / -$22,803 ROI: +0.4% / -4.0%

So for the last 3628 September games, you would have made money.

As a matter of fact, a little better is
"Month=9 and D" yields:

SU: 1539-2100 (-0.63, 42.3%) avg line: 142.5 / -157.5 on / against: +$2,266 / -$23,572 ROI: +0.6% / -4.1%

for .6 % ROI, so evidently the -101 to -105 range is also profitable

Regards,

Lem

Old Post 09-10-13 06:49 PM
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Cookie Monster


Registered: Oct 2006
Posts: 153

Lem,

Filter it further by home dogs and you will like the results even more :)

Old Post 09-10-13 07:31 PM
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pshinnamon
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Registered: Apr 2005
Posts: 6463

Last Night dogs

Bet 12 dogs 8 won and 4 lost for a net profit of $664.50.

Did some back tracking for the year 2012 and found out that you would lose money doing this. so even though it looked good at first and got lucky last night, I think i'll just leave alone.

I will back track a few years and make sure but last year the losses would have been $2914.00.

Possibly Home dogs is the way to track

Pete




Terpman

Old Post 09-11-13 05:52 PM
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