The Leading Logic In Sports Handicapping |
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bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer
Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067
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Watt to do with J.J.?
Run away from him, and he’ll track you down. Throw over him, and he’ll bat it down. Throw away from him, and he’ll sack you. That’s 2012 in a nutshell for Watt who, despite a recent surge by Denver Broncos linebacker Von Miller, is still the likely favorite for Defensive Player of the Year. He’s elite in every facet of the game as he leads all 3-4 defensive ends in Run Stop Percentage at 19.0 percent and Pass Rushing Productivity at 10.1. His +40.7 pass rush grade is off-the-charts and his +73.7 overall grade is just as ludicrous. Now that we’re finally passed the accolades, how will the Patriots look to slow Watt down?
Watt generally lines up at left end in the Texan’s base 3-4 before moving to defensive left tackle in their four-man sub packages, so the onus is likely to be on right guard Dan Connolly and right tackle Sebastian Vollmer. Unfortunately for New England, both players are battling injuries as Connolly left last week’s game early while Vollmer may not have been playing at 100 percent and had a tough outing against Miami Dolphins DE Cameron Wake. Connolly ranks 61st out of 73 qualifying guards with a Pass Blocking Efficiency (PBE) of 95.3, so the Patriots may look to give him some help when Watt is lined up over him on passing downs. When healthy, Vollmer is a fine option as he’s garnering Pro Bowl consideration even after last week’s rough performance. He fell to 22nd in PBE among tackles at 95.5 while providing solid run blocking. It’s very difficult to game plan for a disruptive force like Watt, but expect the Patriots to mix up their offensive line looks as best they can.
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12-11-12 12:38 AM |
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bbaffert
StatFox Hall of Famer
Registered: Mar 2003
Posts: 7067
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18% of the run plays J.J. Watt is on the field for end with him making a defensive stop.
The info above is from a site I use weekly to try and get a read on the OL/DL matchups. I said it before but again, they rate every player on the field and they really help me.
As for the game tonight, read it and come to a conclusion. They do not give plays just matchups. I could not come to any conclusion from what they said.
I gotta say this though. Rain? I know I said it before in this thread but in the Texans/Bears game the Texans DL could not get any penetration. In the last 2 years, I have not seen them play a game where they had so many problems getting a push on the OL. My OPINION is that it was the rain. The Bears OL is not that good. Texans had 0 sacks, Watt was a non factor. I can only blame it on the rain.
I have seen every Texans game and they have a bad issue with slipping without bad weather. Foster and the secondary seem to be the most affected. I cannot remember the game but one of our CBs slipped and gave up an easy long TD. Maybe it is their shoes or something. Maybe it is the way they cut or move. Maybe they just are not used to it at all. I do not know but it has been something that I have seen all season.
Either way, I know the Pats have to know they can pick apart the secondary. Joseph might be ok if he is 100%, Jackson is getting better every week, after that the guys are just plain BAD. When the 3rd or even 4th CB's are in the Texans have to get to the QB or they are toast. Safeties minus Manning are not impressive at all.
Now on the Texans side, they can score with anyone. Before Foster, Schaub, Johnson and co. could score with the best of them. They have proven that is still the case the last couple weeks when they were forced to. I guess my point here is you cannot rule the Texans out because of NE's offense.
Kickers - NE has a HUGE EDGE. Graham was not even supposed to be the Texans kicker. He lost the job but the guy, Bullock, got hurt. Graham is lucky when he can hit a 40 yarder.
Special teams- I cannot speak of NE but Houston is very solid here. They get excellent coverage on kicks and punts and Keshawn is dangerous every time he gets the ball.
Turnovers - NE is a hell of a ball hawking team. That is a worry for me as a Texans fan. The can strip the ball with the best of them.
In the end, I will be wearing my Schaub uniform and rooting on the Texans here with my sister tonight. I have been a fan of Houston teams through the good and bad for whatever amount of 41 years I could be. This is the 2nd time in our NFL history that I do believe we have a real shot at the ring. I can say confidently that the Houston Texans will win a superbowl in the next couple of years. If Cushing were on the field right now and Joseph was 100% my confidence would be through the roof. This team can get it done though.
GL TO ALL! This is what football is about. Let us hope for no injuries and few bad calls.
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12-11-12 01:01 AM |
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brianp
FoxDen Hall of Famer
Registered: Oct 2011
Posts: 1298
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Bbaffert, I think you did let the fan inside of you second guess your pick. Oh well, that's what will make the next pick even stronger. It's a learning experience. Good luck and I will look forward to the next shed pick.
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12-11-12 01:57 PM |
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