we have a full week ahead, let's keep grinding !
GL

If, after Chelsea strolled past Arsenal 2-0 at the start of the 2021/22 season, you told fans of both teams where they'd be in two and a half years, it's unlikely anyone would believe you.

Yet, this is where we've ended up. Chelsea, coming off a Champions League triumph, failed to win anything that year, and after Roman Abramovich was forced to sell the club, it's only gone further downhill for the Blues. There's still a solid opportunity for them to qualify for the Europa League in Mauricio Pochettino's first season, but that will no doubt feel like a disappointment given the amount of money ownership invested in the team over the past few windows.

Arsenal, on the other hand, have undergone a remarkable resurgence. They've defeated Chelsea three of the four times the two clubs have met since then, gotten back into the Champions League, and are very much on the hunt for their first Premier League title under Mikel Arteta. Whether these two London establishments swap outlooks again a couple of campaigns down the road remains to be seen — and feels unlikely for that matter — but right now, Arsenal enter this contest in a much more desirable position and as sizable favorites.

Last time out, the Gunners prevailed at Molineux against Wolves 2-0, which was a nice rebound for Arteta and co. after a calamitous week before. Having exited the Champions League last Wednesday at the hands of Bayern, Arsenal now enter their final midweek fixture of the season — with a complete focus on domestic success — which will be a welcomed sight for a team that was definitely showing signs of fatigue on Saturday.

In the reverse fixture at Stamford Bridge, Arsenal needed late goals from Declan Rice and Leandro Trossard to salvage a draw. Despite that fact, along with a shaky start and conceding two goals out of "nothing" situations, they were the better team for the majority of the contest. Arteta shouldn't need to make many changes heading into this match because of what happened in that one, and fitness/energy levels will likely be the biggest determinant of the team he puts out. While it feels strange to say given their histories, Arsenal's game against Tottenham on Sunday is going to be a far bigger challenge than this clash with Chelsea, and having now basically played seven games in three weeks, some slight rotation might be necessary.

Regardless, the Gunners' quality this season is not up for debate. They might not finish top of the pile, but across 33 matches, they've shown they wouldn't be an undeserving champion — both the eye test and data back that up.

Chelsea had a far less enjoyable Saturday than their counterparts in this fixture. Their trip to Wembley for an FA Cup semifinal against Manchester City ended in disappointment, with a late Bernardo Silva goal earning City a 1-0 victory after the Blues squandered quite a few opportunities. Additionally, that result confirmed they'll fail to win a trophy in back-to-back season for the first time in nearly two decades. With silverware off the table, Pochettino's side will be solely concerned with improving their league position, although qualifying for Europe might be more detrimental than helpful for them, as they'd almost certainly fail UEFA's financial regulations.

To make matters worse for the Blues heading into this match, Cole Palmer is ill and seems unlikely to feature, and on top of that, Malo Gusto and Ben Chilwell are undergoing medical assessments. Pochettino has been highly reliant on Palmer's skillset to get Chelsea ticking with the ball, and they became an even less worrying proposition in his absence. In the 2-2 draw in October, Chelsea lined up without a recognized striker, with Conor Gallagher playing at the tip of a 4-2-3-1 press, and in build-up, Gallagher and Palmer played as the double No. 10s in a 4-2-4 structure. Pochettino also started Raheem Sterling on the right, who's an excellent pressing winger, with the pace of Mykhailo Mudryk on the left. In other words, there was a clear emphasis on out-of-possession solidity and taking advantage of transitions, whether those came from turnovers or playing through Arsenal's high press.

Without his top transition threat, without the energy of the home fans to give his side that little bit of additional energy and coming off an emotionally taxing match with only two days of rest in between, Pochettino will have to adapt. How he does that is unknown, but it's virtually a guarantee Chelsea will be worse off.

The line movement following Pochettino expressing his doubt about Palmer's availability says all that needs to be said. Arsenal moneyline opened at -175, and now is -225 in some books. Chelsea will simply struggle to create chances without him, and their backline is also patched together with duct tape at the moment. The Gunners have an opportunity, at home against a weakened opponent in a derby, to put some pressure on Manchester City in the title race, and it's unlikely they will pass it up.

Wolves and Bournemouth square off at the Molineaux as both clubs are battling to finish the season in the top half of the table.

Wolves are coming off a lackluster 2-0 loss to Arsenal, which dropped them into the bottom half of the table. Gary O'Neil has had to navigate a pretty substantial injury crisis with Wolves missing a lot of their key attacking players. However, O'Neil will have some extra motivation on Wednesday facing the club that sacked him at the end of last season.

Bournemouth are coming off a 3-1 loss to Aston Villa, which keeps them right behind Wolves in the table. Bournemouth has been one of the better teams in the Premier League over the second half of the season and are set up really well here to grab all three points on the road against their former manager.

Even though Wolves did a pretty good job in their defensive block against Arsenal, it was really evident the lack of attacking prowess they have without Cunha and Neto. Hwang only played a little over a half against Arsenal, and since Wolves is safe from relegation and have no shot of making a European spot, they’ve been more careful with their stars not to reaggravate their injuries.

They only created 0.14 xG against Arsenal on Saturday, and without any of their star attacking players returning, it really puts them in a difficult situation.

Bournemouth may have lost 3-1 to Aston Villa on Sunday, but they have really improved over the second half of the season, and this match sets up pretty well for them to unleash their high press. Wolves just recently played a match against Nottingham Forest where they tried to build out of the back with regularity, but they really struggled turning the ball over in their own half when they tried to switch the play to the other side of the field.

Wolves defensively is a very difficult team to break down because of how good they are defending their own penalty area. Wolves will allow space through the middle of the pitch, but they have allowed the lowest percentage of crosses to be completed into their penalty area and are also top five in blocked shot per 90 minutes.

However, relying on being an elite box-defending team when you have flaws in terms of your actual defensive block is a problem, and good attacking teams will eventually breakthrough and create some high quality chances.

The Cherries have had a resurgence since the middle of November, and it's because of how well they are playing out possession. Adoni Iraola's hybrid high press took some time to implement, but now it's working really well.

The way Bournemouth’s press works is they try to go man to man by pinning their opponents to one side of the pitch to force the turnover or force their opponents to switch the play to the other side of the pitch.

Early on in the season, teams would manipulate this because this system relies on the fullbacks' instincts to know when to come up and aid in the press or try to intercept that ball traveling across the pitch. Bournemouth weren’t great at defending those early on in the season, along with their midfielders struggling to know when to jump or not is why they had such a bad start to the season.

Not only has their high press forced a lot of high turnovers, but it's also suffocated opponents and forced them to send the ball long over the press. Bournemouth have done a much better job defending those long balls and teams like Wolves that are best when playing in transition.

Bournemouth is allowing the seventh-lowest Long-ball Completion Rate and have done a fantastic job at not allowing their opponents to create high quality chances off of those transition moments, as they've conceded the sixth fewest Big Scoring Chances.

Bournemouth without a doubt has the best attacking player in this match in Dominic Solanke. He's Bournemouth's most important player right now, as he's scored 18 of its 47 goals and has a 0.57 xG per 90 minute scoring rate this season.

Wolves' showing against Arsenal on Saturday goes to show how much they miss Cunha and Neto. They were actually finding some success through the first and second phases on build up, but since they have very little attacking talent available, they were able to do nothing in the final third.

So, what is going to change against a really good out of possession team like Bournemouth?

Since the beginning of February, Bournemouth have been about a goal better based on underlying numbers than Wolves, as the Cherries have +0.32 npxGD per 90 minutes, while Wolves have the third-worst mark in the Premier League at -0.64.

With all of the injuries for Wolves attack and the problems they had against Nottingham Forest with their build up, I really fear because they are at home that they are going to try to build out of the back, which will allow Bournemouth to unleash their high press and cause a lot of high turnovers.

Crystal Palace look to post their first three-match winning streak of the season on Wednesday when they host a Newcastle United side still contending for potential European places.

Palace romped to a 5-2 home win over West Ham United on Sunday on the strength of four first-half goals and an eventual brace for Jean-Philippe Mateta.

Newcastle were also dominant in their last outing, a 4-0 home win over Tottenham two weekends ago, with Alexander Isak pouncing for a brace.

As discussed last week, Palace have been a much better team when their first-choice wingers Eberechi Eze and Michael Olise are both healthy.

Sunday's win marked only the sixth game in which both flank men were in the Eagles' first XI, and the fourth victory out of those six games. Each player also scored during the first-half onslaught that led to manager Oliver Glasner's third league win since taking charge in late February.

The last two wins have ensured for all practical purposes that the Eagles won't have to worry about relegation this season, and another victory Wednesday would make that a mathematical guarantee.

But for Palace fans, what should be even more encouraging is that the underlying numbers have matched the outcome of the most recent performances. For a second consecutive match, the Eagles created more than 2.0 expected goals, something they never did this season under previous manager Roy Hodgson, even during stretches when those two wingers were available.

Newcastle still have plenty to play for with six matches remaining, entering the mid-week slate tied in sixth place ahead of Manchester United on goal difference.

The Magpies' fate isn't entirely in their own hands, since United would have an automatic UEFA Europa League berth if they win their FA Cup final against Manchester City. And it's too late in the season to consider making up the gap on fifth-place Tottenham a realistic goal.

Either way, the Magpies have been a far better team since the start of 2024 once their elimination from the UEFA Champions League allowed manager Eddie Howe's side to regroup and get healthy. They've suffered only two defeats in the last 11 league games, and in their four-match unbeaten run they played to a +5.5 expected-goal difference.

Isak has been an enormous part of that increased statistical dominance. The Swedish international has five goals and 4.9 xG in those contests while taking his season total to 17 goals, which sees him tied for fifth with Mo Salah on the Premier League scoring table.

But for all Newcastle's improvement, they still remain a spotty team when they hit the road.

Yes, they've won three times as the away side in 2024 against only once this season before the calendar turned. But the xG data suggest that's more about variance than material improvement. And what they do most consistently as an away side is concede goals — having allowed two or more in 10 of their 15 away league fixtures, and 4 of 8 times against bottom-half opposition.

Meanwhile, Palace have scored 11 goals in their first four home games under Oliver Glasner, and have created above 2.0 xG in three of those four games.

Manchester United look to stay inside the top seven when they host Sheffield United.

Everything was going well for Manchester United in their FA Cup semifinal tie against Coventry City, as they were up 3-0 inside the first hour. Then, in the blink of an eye, they collapsed and allowed three goals, but they did end up winning on penalties. It's astonishing how much they have over-performed just to be in a position to potentially get a spot in the Europa Conference League. To do so though, they are going to need all three points from this match.

It's tough times for Sheffield United, who all but made their relegation to the Championship official after losing at home to Burnley over the weekend. The Blades have improved a little bit under Chris Wilder, but they've been one of the worst defenses in Premier League history, which is the reason they are at the bottom of the table.

It’s the same old story week after week with Manchester United. They were actually playing really well against Coventry City for the first hour of the match. They were controlling possession, pinning Coventry in their own final third and limiting their transition opportunities. However, because of injuries and exhaustion, once Coventry started to play more aggressively things started to open up for them and they went on scored three goals and create over two expected goals.

In 2024, Manchester United have kept one clean sheet in the Premier League, they have only held one opponent under one expected goal, and they are conceding 2.33 xG per 90 minutes.

The situation isn’t getting better anytime soon, because they are going through a pretty massive injury crisis across their backline. Casemiro was forced to play as an emergency center back alongside Harry Maguire and was responsible for them conceding the first goal on Sunday because he miscommunicated with Dalot.

The Manchester United attack through has been playing pretty well. The Red Devils have scored in every single match in 2024 and have all of their attackers healthy. They are averaging close to 1.50 xG per 90 minutes and have been very threatening in transition moments, so they should have no problem creating chances against Sheffield United's defense.

Sheffield United have been playing more aggressively lately and been more willing to come out of their low defensive block because they have nothing else to lose. They’ve been creating a decent amount of chances lately, as they’ve created 8.3 expected goals over their last six matches. They also have dealt with a lot of injuries to their attack, but their three best attackers, Ben Brereton, Cameron Archer and Oliver McBurnie are all available to play together.

The problem for Sheffield United all season long has been their defense. The Blades have played out of a 3-5-2 and playing a back five out of possession for the entire season, but it hasn't worked. They are dead last in almost every single defensive metric, so lately they've decided to press more and play more open because they have absolutely nothing to lose at this point in the season.

The other big issue with Sheffield is not only are they not very good in a passive low block and are allowing a ton of shots, but the goalkeeping situation has been a mess as well. Wes Foderingham played most of the season in net, but he really never stood a chance because by nature he's not a great shot-stopper. He conceded four own goals by himself and had a -1.5 post shot xG +/-.

Ivo Grbić is now starting and it's somehow even worse because in his 8.6 90s that he's played, he has a -8.3 post shot xG +/-, meaning he is giving up about a goal per match more than an average keeper should, which is unfathomably bad for the highest level of football.

I don’t think anything more really needs to be said about how bad Sheffield United’s defense has been, so Manchester United should have a pretty easy time creating chances, but they are not going to be able to control this match, so Sheffield will have their chances in transition.

Sheffield United have been so bad defensively all season long and the goalkeeper situation continues to somehow get worse by the match. Relegation isn't official, but it is the reality for the Blades, so I don't see how they can just sit in a passive defensive block when teams have had so much success playing in up and down transition matches with Manchester United.

Liverpool look to keep pace in the Premier League title chase when they visit an Everton side that would love nothing more than to ruin their Merseyside' rivals' league aspirations.

Liverpool bounced back from their first home league defeat with back to back victories, including a 3-1 league win at Fulham Sunday on the strength of second-half goals from unlikely scorer Ryan Gravenberch and Diogo Jota.

Earlier that day, Everton earned a 2-0 win over Nottingham Forest decided by a pair of long-distance strikes from Idrissa Gueye and Dwight McNeil that bolstered their hopes of a third successive Premier League survival.

Liverpool earned a 2-0 victory during these sides' previous meeting last October to continue this most lopsided era of this famous fixture. Everton have one win in the last 28 Merseyside Derbies played, a stretch that extends back to 2011.

There should be an improved feeling around Goodison Park after Sunday's win in a relegation six-pointer took the Toffees five points clear of the drop zone.

It was a second consecutive home match in which the Toffees got some lucky bounces. But if any team has been due those this season, it's probably Everton, a team that has scored only 34 times on 47.7 xG created.

Striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin has been the worst offender, scoring only five times on 11.1xG. But at least he's getting on the end of chances, with no other player on the Toffees' roster reaching the 7.0 xG total by this point in the season. And he's almost certain to start again Wednesday after Beto was stretchered off in second-half stoppage time of Sunday's win with a scary head injury.

Despite that unusual bad fortune in front of goal, Sean Dyche's squad has rarely been blown out this season, particularly at home.

In their previous games against the current top seven, they comprehensively defeated a then-weary Newcastle side, took a point in meetings with Tottenham and Aston Villa and were within a goal of doing the same against Arsenal back in September. Only the two Manchester clubs completed multiple-goal wins.

Liverpool now have only the league to focus on after their elimination from the UEFA Europa League was made official a week ago. And while they probably can't afford to drop any points in their final five games if they want to remain in title contention, that's doubly true on Wednesday in what statistically is one of their two easiest remaining games.

Following Wednesday, Liverpool will face three consecutive teams in the top half of the table, hosting West Ham and Tottenham before visiting Aston Villa. Then they'll close with a home match against an 11th-place Wolves side that has proven itself capable of earning results against the league's best.

The Reds kept their first clean sheet in 10 games in all competitions in their 1-0 win at Atalanta in leg two of their UEFA Europa League quarterfinal. That wasn't enough to overturn a 3-0 deficit from the first leg, but it may have been a needed confidence boost for a group that has been sabotaged by its defensive mistakes more often than any attacking woes.

Liverpool earned their latest victory while Jurgen Klopp rotated Mo Salah and Darwin Nunez out of his starting XI after they were both part of the team that started against Atalanta. That rest may be especially important given this is the Reds' fourth consecutive midweek with a competitive fixture.

As goal-challenged as Everton have been, the games against higher-level opponents have often featured more chances at both ends than against the lower-level ones. That perhaps makes sense given the strength's of Dyche's squad lies in their counterattacking ability.

Meanwhile, Liverpool have also been vulnerable to the odd goal on the counter regardless of venue. And they've rarely been able to pour on insurance goals in a fashion their other two title challenges sometimes can.

So with factors that both make the low end of the total goals spectrum and the high end a bit less likely than in a normal match